All posts by T3 Live
How Kira Turner Went from Extreme Athlete to Elite Trader
Check out Inner Circle Moderator Kira Turner’s appearance on the 2 Bulls in a China Shop podcast: Kira shares: Her role in the Inner Circle community How she got into trading How she transitioned to trading from rodeo competitions and skydiving The odd reason she began trading How she finds here trades When she knows a position is too big The reason she changed her trading style in the past 2 years What’s working in the current market environment How to make money in news-based trades And more!
Continue Reading -->Kira Turner Talks Trading, Rodeo, Skydiving, and Life
Check out Inner Circle Moderator Kira Turner’s appearance on the SafeDayTrading Podcast: Kira shares: How her unconventional background helped build her trading philosophy What rodeo, skydiving, and scuba diving taught her about risk Why trading was so different in the 90’s Why she likes shorting The reason she came back to the markets after a Real Estate career And more!
Continue Reading -->David Prince Interview: How to Succeed as a Trader in 2022
In this exclusive interview, David Prince, leader of Inner Circle, discusses what’s working and what’s not in 2022. David discusses: Why so many traders have the wrong goals Why 2022 has been so different than 2021 and 2020 When to bet on low quality stocks, and when to chase them The trick for knowing when to dump a popular “story stock” The reason stock picking is the easy part The role psychology plays in your probability of success Go here to learn more about Inner Circle =>
Continue Reading -->Oil Bulls Back Off
Traders are still cautious towards risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin. And interestingly, traders grew less bullish on oil this week, just in front of today’s drop in crude prices. IMPORTANT: when we reference “traders” in this article, we are specifically referring to T3 Sentiment Survey respondents. SPX: Traders Are Still Cautious Four weeks ago, bullish sentiment on SPX fell to 19% – by far the lowest reading we’ve ever had in our admittedly short 20 week history.It has since rebounded to 39%, which is still a fairly bearish reading. Bitcoin Sentiment Not Bouncing Bitcoin Sentiment was at record lows four weeks ago, and it has since bounced to 41%. That is definitely in the bearish category, even with traders speculating that the conflict in Ukraine is increasing demand for cryptos. Apple Optimism Edging Higher… Optimism towards Apple grew for the fourth week in a row, hitting 50%. That’s split right down the middle. Tesla Split Down the Middle Tesla (TSLA) sentiment is at 50% – split down the middle, just like Apple. Gold Bullishness Sliding Lower Even with the Ukraine-Russia war intensifying and inflation going through the roof, gold sentiment has drifted lower for weeks now. Oil Sentiment Drops Oil has led the market in 2022, but sentiment is dropping as many traders anticipate the highs being in. What Happens Now? Traders are still cautious on the market for good reason, including:The massive inflation spikeCentral banks pulling back accommodationThe conflict in UkraineThe overall crash in risky stocksNow we’ll see if traders are merely complacent ahead of another potential drop.
Continue Reading -->Are Traders Bullish Enough on Oil?
Traders remain cautious towards risk assets like stocks, as judged by our latest sentiment survey. But what’s really interesting is that traders aren’t more bullish on gold and oil, given their recent big runs. Let’s jump in. IMPORTANT: when we reference “traders” in this article, we are specifically referring to T3 Sentiment Survey respondents. SPX: Traders Still Cautious Three weeks ago, bullish sentiment on SPX fell to 19% – by far the lowest reading we’ve ever had in our admittedly short 19 week history.It has since rebounded to 42%, but that is still a fairly bearish reading. Bitcoin Sentiment Off the Lows Bitcoin Sentiment was at record lows two weeks ago, and it has since bounced to 40%. That is definitely in the bearish category. Apple Optimism Growing… Optimism towards Apple grew for the third week in a row, hitting 45%. Again, that’s still in the bearish camp. Tesla Still Not Feeling Much Love Tesla (TSLA) sentiment is off the lows, but you definitely can’t say it’s a loved stock as just 36% of traders think it is going up. Gold Bullishness Falls Oddly enough, gold bullishness has fallen for weeks – even with the Ukraine-Russia war intensifying, and inflation going through the roof. Oil Sentiment Drops Oddly enough, oil sentiment has actually dropped in recent weeks, even with oil going straight up. Crude oil futures hit a shocking $130.50/barrel on Sunday evening to top off a parabolic move from the $90’s in late February. What Happens Now? Traders are still cautious on the market for good reason, including:The massive inflation spikeCentral banks pulling back accommodationThe conflict in UkraineThe overall crash in risky stocksBut sentiment has growth less bearish over the past few weeks. Now we’ll see if traders are being fooled.
Continue Reading -->People Still LOVE Oil
Traders remain somewhat cautious towards risk assets, as judged by our latest sentiment survey. And in fact, they seem to view the SPX, Bitcoin, Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) as one big asset. But the biggest takeaway is that traders still love oil… which is no surprise given the Ukraine situation. Let’s jump in. IMPORTANT: when we reference “traders” in this article, we are specifically referring to T3 Sentiment Survey respondents. SPX: Bulls Easing Back In Two weeks ago, SPX sentiment fell to an all-time low of 19%. It’s since more than doubled to 40%, which still counts as bearish. Bitcoin Sentiment Bounces Bitcoin sentiment bounced up to 40% this week, exactly matching the SPX. The bounce is to be expected given that Bitcoin came off the lows. Apple: Right in Line Apple (AAPL) sentiment is right in line with the SPX and Bitcoin at 39%. Again, off the lows but definitely not bullish. Tesla: Also In-Line Tesla (TSLA) sentiment fell to 22%, an all-time lows, two weeks ago. It’s since bounced up to 36%, roughly in-line with the SPX, Bitcoin, and Apple. Gold Still Feeling Some Optimism Gold sentiment hit a record high of 81% two weeks ago, and it’s since fallen to 67%. Still, that leans towards optimism. Oil Still Feels the Love Oil has led the market in 2022, with OIH up 31% and XLE up 24%. So as you would expect, traders have been very bullish on oil. And with the Ukraine situation continuing to unfold, oil is up big to start the new week. What Happens Now? Traders are not bullish, but they are definitely not as negative as they were two weeks ago. We’ll soon see if the small rise in optimism is warranted.
Continue Reading -->73% of Traders Are Bearish on Bitcoin
Traders remain very cautious towards risk assets, as judged by our latest sentiment survey. Let’s jump in. IMPORTANT: when we reference “traders” in this article, we are specifically referring to T3 Sentiment Survey respondents. SPX: Few Bulls Out Here This week, bullish sentiment on SPX fell to 19% – by far the lowest reading we’ve ever had in our admittedly short 19 week history.This week, bullish sentiment bounced to 32%, the second lowest reading in our history. And it’s dramatically below our all-time average of 59%. Needless to say, traders are very bearish overall. Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Record Low For the second week in a row, Bitcoin Sentiment hit a record low, with just 27% of survey respondents saying they are bullish on Bitcoin for the next 30 days. This is no surprise considering that Bitcoin just dropped from $44,0000 to $38,000 in the span of a few days. Apple Still Not Trusted Apple (AAPL) delivered a monster earnings report 4 week ago… but nobody cares. Just 34% of traders are bullish on Apple, up slightly from last week. Tesla Still Not Feeling Love Tesla (TSLA) sentiment fell to 22% last week, and this week it bounced to 31%. Still, that’s very low compared to the long-term average of 51%. Gold Bullishness Falls Gold sentiment hit a record high of 81% last week. And it fell back down to 68%, even with gold spiking up big time this past week. Oil Sentiment Drops Oil has led the market by a country mile in 2022 with OIH up 30% and XLE up 23%. But it appears that the late week pullback in oil priced spooked the bulls. Now 67% of traders believe oil will rise over the next 30 days. What Happens Now? Traders are still very bearish for a variety of reasons, including:The massive inflation spikeCentral banks pulling back accommodationThe conflict in UkraineThe overall crash in risky stocksAs we pointed out last week, sometimes (but not always) the market bottoms when traders show maximum fear. We’ll see if that’s true this time around.
Continue Reading -->81% of Traders Are Bearish
Bullish sentiment just fell a cliff. We created this sentiment survey in October 2021, so we have a short history. Still, it’s fascinating that we have all-time lows in bullish sentiment on the SPX, Bitcoin, Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA). Meanwhile, bullish sentiment on gold and oil hit record highs. Let’s dig in. SPX Mood Is Super Bearish Last week, bullish sentiment on the S&P 500 was 58%.This week, it dropped to just 19% – by far the lowest reading we’ve ever had in our admittedly short 18 week history. Traders appear to be spooked by the market dropping into the end of last week, combined with existing concerns over inflation and central banks removing the punch bowl. Plus, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is adding tension. Bitcoin Sentiment Collapses Bitcoin sentiment hit a record low this week, with just 30% of surveyed respondents saying they think it will go up over the next 30 days. This appears related to a general fear of risk assets — which is the big theme this week. Apple Bears Are Here Apple (AAPL) delivered a monster earnings report 3 week ago… but it doesn’t seem to be helping. Just 32% of respondents think the world’s biggest stock will rise, Tesla Gets No Love Tesla (TSLA) really has a lack of love, with just 22% of traders saying they are bearish. Gold Bulls Rise With traders seeking safety, and gold surging last week, bullish sentiment on gold hit record highs at 81%. Traders Still Love Oil Oil has raged higher in 2022 to hit 8-year highs, and as you might expect, energy stocks have led the market. So it’s no surprise that oil remains in favor, with 80% of surveyed traders expecting oil to rise. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a driver of oil prices, since there are worries about supply disruptions in the region. What Happens Now? Traders are very, very bearish. And that’s no surprise given the aforementioned concerns over inflation and central banks pulling back after a very long bull market. Sometimes — but not always — the market bottoms when traders show maximum fear. It will be interesting to see if that’s the case this time around.
Continue Reading -->Traders Are Starting to Like Bitcoin Again
What’s the big story in today’s sentiment report? The Bitcoin bulls are returning. So let’s get to it. SPX Mood Is Semi-Sour SPX sentiment is off the lows, but in semi-sour territory at 58%. This is slightly below the long-term average of 63%, and basically flat from last week. Bitcoin Sentiment Rising Bitcoin sentiment is up for a second week in a row, which is no surprise given Bitcoin’s big pop over the weekend. Apple Mood Unchanged Apple (AAPL) delivered a monster earnings report after the close two weeks ago, which improved the mood in short order. But the mood is basically flat from last week: Tesla Looks Like Apple Tesla (TSLA) is not much different from Apple – up from the lows but largely unchanged. Gold Still All Over the Place Gold sentiment has been largely all over the place from week-to-week, which is no surprise given that it’s so hard to get a read on the metal itself. Traders Still Love Oil Sentiment on oil has been bizarrely stable for the past 5 weeks in the 70% range. And that’s no surprise given how strong oil and related stocks have been in 2022. What Happens Now? Traders have gone from very bearish 3 weeks ago to relative neutral now. We would likely need more upside to get traders outright positive on the action. So this feels like a bit of a no man’s land. What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments below!
Continue Reading -->Which Stocks Are Working in 2022? Not a lot…
2022 has been a crazy year for stocks. After 3 years of eye-popping gains, the S&P 500 is down 5% with major weakness in tech stocks and small caps. We’ve seen the collapse of the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) amid a larger crash in growth stocks. And earnings season has been total chaos with plenty of winners (SNAP, AMZN) and losers (FB, SPOT). We even had “Ugly Chart Time” on January 21. But let’s shift our tone and ask a more optimistic question: what has been working in 2022? The answer overall is… energy, banks… and not much else. The Energy Stock Craze Is Real In April 2020, oil prices went negative when demand collapsed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fast forward to February 2022, and oil is above $90 at 8-year highs. So as you might expect, energy stocks are BOOMING. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) fund is up 27% in 2022 after a 46% run in 2021. OIH is also doing well, up about 25%. What else is working? Banks Are Doing Okay With the rising rate environment, banks are up in 2022, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) rising about 4%: But like everything aside from energy, XLF is off the highs and peaked back in January. And outside of energy and banks, there are very few stocks up in 2022, period. We just saw big post-earnings pops in Amazon (AMZN), Snap (SNAP), and Pinterest (PINS)… but they are all down YTD. And what’s not working in 2022? While the embattled ARKK recently came off the lows, it’s still down 23% year-to-date. Time will tell if the Jim Cramer “drowning” incident on January 27 marked a long-term bottom: I’ve disagreed with most of Cathie’s investment theses since last year (been in $SARK since its inception), but this is just brutal after today’s price action… @jimcramer $ARKK $TSLA $COIN $HOOD pic.twitter.com/oJ3YynrGfP — sᴇɴᴛɪɴᴇʟ 🎲 (@KryptoSentinel) January 27, 2022 Small caps remain a sore spot, with IWM down 11% YTD, more than double the SPX’ loss: Social media has been in rough shape, with Meta Platforms (FB) down 30% YTD after its weak earnings report: Meme stocks are also feeling the pain, with AMC (AMC) down a crazy 42% YTD. The cannabis sector had a horrible 2021 and things aren’t looking much better this year, with MSOS off 14% so far: But overall, traders appear to have destressed a bit, because the VIX is well off the highs: The Big Picture: Derisking The big picture in 2022 remains the same: traders fear rish. Yes, we are off the lows and sentiment has improved, but traders are looking for confirmation that the recent bounce can extend. Where can that confirmation come from? Growth stocks picking up (ARKK is the easy way to watch them) Small caps and tech showing relative outperformance Traders buying the dip in risky sectors like biotech and cannabis)
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