All posts by T3 Trader
Webinar Replay: The Future of Trading with Rob Smith
In this special webinar, Rob Smith walks through his unique Quant Edge Trading System, including: The Time Frame Continuity Principle Actionable Signals Broadening Formations Want to catch Rob’s next LIVE webinar? Click here.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the SPX and how to use the 8 and 21 day to your advantage for cash flow as well as a portfolio approach. He also looks at Gold, AAPL, BABA, and banks.
Continue Reading -->Steve Levay’s Morning Call Express Video
In today’s Morning Call Express Video, T3’s Steve Levay discusses the action in SPY, as well as individual names like SINA, TWLO, and VRX.
Continue Reading -->Steve Levay’s Morning Call Express Video
In today’s Morning Call Express video, T3’s Steve Levay breaks down the action in SPY, as well as individual stocks like AMZN, TWLO, and SCSS.
Continue Reading -->Rob Smith’s Daily Recap Video
In today’s Daily Recap Video, T3 trader Rob Smith breaks down the market action, including the action in SPY, XLE, TWTR, and CROX.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: (Un)Lucky 13
1) (Un)Lucky 13 Most would say thirteen is an unlucky number. Maybe this time around it will prove to be lucky. The S&P 500 was sideways for the thirteenth (13) straight session closing, down .11%. Most of the weight was caused by weakness in energy as the Energy Select Sector (XLE) was down just over 3%. Weakness in oil was the major reason for energy names being down. Read the Oil Update below, by Jeff Cooper for additional thoughts. We continued to see the Nasdaq outperform as it was able to ride the strength of theNasdaq Biotech. Index (IBB), which closed up 1.29%, to a .47% gain. Apple (AAPL) and Netflix (NFLX) were also up big today, gaining 1.80% and 3.56% respectively. 20 Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) were also down sharply, losing 1.49% 2) Oil Update Today, our friend Jeff Cooper is back to weigh in on oil: Oil bounced off its 200 day m.a. on Friday and judging by the outsized moves on many names in the sector such as CLR (flagged in this morning’s report as vulnerable) and CXO which left large range outside up days (to mention a few), it looks like many players suspected oil was going to make a V Bottom at its 200 day. However oil is right back down today despite a retreat in the dollar and it looks like our 38/39 square-out level is magnetizing oil lower—assuming this is part of a constructive pullback if that level holds. Today’s downdraft in many energy names following Friday’s sharp turnup puts the possibility of a Hook, Line & Sinker bearish pattern short term on the table. So we could see some fast, climactic action in coming sessions in the group especially if oil snaps 40 which was a key level on the way down early this year. 3) Who Says to Sell In May? The one and only Scott Redler lends his insight into how to navigate this market: Those who said, “sell in May and go away” didn’t do so well. Now a lot of people are saying to sell in August. Before we just go off following the crowd, let’s go step by step. The 8 day moving average is $216.54- if you are micro trader, you get out with a close below that. If you are more of a swing trader, use $215.30.Otherwise, stay the course. We have pivot resistance at $217.54. A trade and close above that, look for continuation towards $220, or a big Red Dog Reversal (RDR) with that pivot to give a clue. We’ll also want to see oil hold last week’s low.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: The Sideways Shuffle
By T3 Live Staff Come join us in a FREE webinar! Click here for the upcoming schedule. 1) The Sideways Shuffle Today we saw what many traders have been looking for; an up day in Oil. This is the first time in the last 7 sessions that Oil was able to close bullish. The S&P 500 was sideways, once again, but able to close near the top of the range, up 0.18%. It is closing in on a month since the last time the S&P has produced a 1% move or better. The Nasdaq outperformed, again, on heels of strong earnings from GOOGL and AMZN. Gold found its way to the top of the advancers’ column today, with GLD rising 1.05%. 2) Range Precedes Price Today, Jeff Cooper provided some insight into the action on DexCom (DXCM): Our old friend DXCM continues its runaway move. Note the Spike Volume Bottom in Feb that defined the washout when everyone who wanted out got out. The large range breakout on 7/19 on increasing volume saw DXCM reclaim 50 % of this years range. From that point, DXCM has been in runaway mode. Typically runaway moves don’t offer much in the way of daily pullbacks so using an Opening Range Breakout is a good strategy. Also buying on the first intraday pullback offers defined risk entry. Today for example DXCM gapped open, pulled back into the gap window and exploded higher. 3) In Weakness, Opportunity is Found Our friend, Kurt Capra provided an interesting take on yesterday’s bearish candle on Facebook (FB): So, Facebook (FB) reported earnings after the close on Wednesday leading to a gap up Thursday morning to new all-time highs. After dancing around the first 2 hours of the day, FB began to pullback into the gap. It proceeded all the way down, finally finding support at $124.00, leaving the daily chart with a large red candle. To most, that would be seen as bearish. But, if you look beyond face value, it is an opportunity to get long for a ride back to, and through all time highs. Why would this be case? Take a look at the hourly chart from today and you’ll see a pullback and double bottom. So, the red bar from Thursday was nothing more than a controlled pullback to support and the whole number ($124); nothing to be scared of. In fact, quite the opposite. To the trained eye, this is an opportunity to get long, from a great spot, and enjoy a ride back to, and through, all time highs. If fact, if you go back and look at the daily chart of FB, notice how many times red bars were negated within the next day or two? This is a powerful concept that combines multiple timeframes with pattern recognition; something all traders should intimately understand. P.S.- If a double bottom fails, it can be an even bigger opportunity…even in failure, there is opportunity!!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: S&P 500 Remains Range-Bound
In today’s Morning Call Express, Jeffrey Cooper discusses his thoughts on the recent moves in names like AAPL and FB and the fact that the SPY remains in its 2-week range. He also questions if this range is going to play out similarly to late July of last year. Jeff also talks about the recent action in oil and how it may play into the next move for the market.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express: Rotation of Things
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the technical action in the SPX as it has moved to new all time highs. He also looks at the Nasdaq Biotech Index (IBB) as it can play catch up. Finally, Scott also looks at Intel (INTC), eBay (EBAY) and others that have reported earnings.
Continue Reading -->Jeff Cooper: Today Sets Up as a Key Day
Follow Jeff Cooper on Twitter: @JeffCooperLive Has anything really changed that justifies the extreme levels of bullish sentiment — other than stocks going up? Is the stock market discounting something favorable that bulls are chasing? I don’t think so. Rather, my sense is that after the Brexit vote, players were poised to pounce and short the Brexit Bounce — especially within the context of a tedious 18 month trading range punctuated by several sharp downdrafts. In other words, I think the way we got here was with an extraordinary level of players set to lay out shorts around a 50% retrace of the June trading range — to wit, SPX 2120 to 1992, which gives a mid-point of 2056. A funny thing happened on the way to collecting on those bets. The SPX rocketed through the 2056 like the proverbial knife through butter. In fact as the below daily SPX from June shows, the SPX closed at 2070 on day 2 off the Brexit low — above the monthly equilibrium pivot. The next session, the SPX cleared its 50 day line with authority. The bottom line: the perception that the impact of an exit vote could mean the breakup of the EU was prevalent, which caused an extraordinary level of bearish sentiment. In short, too many market participants were leaning to the short side of the ship; there was no shortage of players ready to short the Brexit Bounce which perpetuated a contrarian move. The Brexit Bounce morphed into the Brexit Bungee. Extreme bearish sentiment on the surprise vote has quickly shifted to extreme bullish sentiment. This is borne out by put/call ratios, the smart money/dumb money index and a decade high in the Greed/Fear Index. While some may chalk up this speedy shift from a selling panic to a buying panic to our modern era of twitterpated, computer driven information and hence this can only provide us with insight as to the short term, as in a few weeks, I am mindful of the market maxim that volatility precedes price. Be that as it may, assuming that the current upside spike in sentiment only speaks to a pullback over the next few weeks, I think the takeaway is that a picture perfect, pat pullback to the breakout pivot of 2110-2120 may be undercut leading to a push below the big psychological 2100 level. A decline below 2100 would raise red flags as to a failed breakout. If this plays out it would not surprise me to then see an contrarian bounce that tests current levels and perhaps nominally exceeds them. But if this scenario plays out, the damage will have been done. The damage I am referring to is the inherent structure of a blow-off. Blow-offs typically do not pullback for more than 3 days before resuming their runaway trajectory. So a meaningful pullback indicates the blow-off has culminated. Strategy. A 10 min SPX below shows a spike to 2170 on July 15 followed by a little decline to 2156. The index has been trading inside since. This morning’s the futures are indicating a push into yesterday’s gap window which if exceeded will likely satisfy our idealized 2174 level today, on the idealized July 20 turning point day. As a refresher, 2174 aligns/vibrates off this week on the Square of 9 Wheel and is opposite January 20, the primary low in 2016. So today sets up as a key day. Click here to read more about how Jeff is crushing the market with the Daily Market Report.
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