Category Archives for Scott Redler
Scott Redler: Breaking Down the Google Breakout
GOOGL’s done pretty well in the past few days with a quick trip from $1160ish up to the $1183 area. Let’s break down the levels along the way, In my Morning Note on Thursday, June 14, I said: “GOOGL had a decent move from last Friday’s low of $1125 back to a high of $1155.64 before retracing lower. I’d like to see it hold $1138ish. If it does, it could make another attempt to take out $1160 in the sessions ahead.” As you can see in the chart I made that day, it then put in a high at $1161:Then I wanted to see if $1150ish would hold. GOOGL Invested in JD, and I wanted to see if that could help GOOGL get and stay above the $1165 trendline:Then, GOOGL broke above $1170 — a nice little move. It actually closed at $1183.58 on Monday. As of Tuesday morning, I’m still long and I want to see the $1160 area hold. That would make it easier to stay in and possibly add if the market doesn’t fall apart.
Continue Reading -->A Dropbox Full of Cash: DBX Breaks to New Highs After Clearing Important Levels
Dropbox (DBX) hit a record high Monday morning at $43.50. I sold my long into the strength, but let’s go back and reverse engineer the rally, level by level. Last Wednesday, I said this in my Morning Note: “DBX has had many false starts. We’ll see if this one is better. Bulls want it to continue above $31 and hold that level.” That $31 level was Tuesday’s high, as you can see on this chart:.. It managed to get above $31, touching $31.90. That made $34 – the IPO reaction high — a big spot to watch. Then I said: DBX was on the stronger side again yesterday. It had a decent Day #1 Tuesday and cleared $31 yesterday. There’s a big base, and if it can clear $31.90, there could be a real move to the post-IPO highs near $34.83. Now let’s look at the “After” chart: As you can see, DBX cut thorough $31 like a knife through butter on Wednesday. And on Thursday, it gapped above the descending trendline to pass the post-IPO highs near $34.83. As i write this, it’s over $36. Then on Monday, DBX opened up green and power higher. I sold my position into the morning strength.The stock hit a high of $43.50 – wow. The lesson: keep an eye on post-IPO highs and lows. They are very important pivots for judging action, and sometimes signal follow-through because they create F.O.M.O. (Fear of Missing Out) for traders that worry about getting left behind. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Dropbox Creates F.O.M.O., Teaches a Key Technical Analysis Lesson
Dropbox (DBX) is making a huge move today. Let’s reverse engineer the rally. On Wednesday, I said this in my Morning Note: “DBX has had many false starts. We’ll see if this one is better. Bulls want it to continue above $31 and hold that level.” That $31 level was Tuesday’s high, as you can see on this chart: .. It managed to get above $31, touching $31.90. That made $34 – the IPO reaction high — a big spot to watch. And today, I said : DBX was on the stronger side again yesterday. It had a decent Day #1 Tuesday and cleared $31 yesterday. There’s a big base, and if it can clear $31.90, there could be a real move to the post-IPO highs near $34.83. Now let’s look at the “After” chart: As you can see, DBX cut thorough $31 like a knife through butter on Wednesday. And today, it gapped above the descending trendline to pass the post-IPO highs near $34.83. As i write this, it’s over $36. The lesson: keep an eye on post-IPO highs and lows. They are very important pivots for judging action, and sometimes signal follow-through because they create F.O.M.O. (Fear of Missing Out) for traders that worry about getting left behind. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Can Tesla Drive Away to $360?
Tesla (TSLA) has been a real battleground stock lately. Last week it had a big day on volume, clearing $301 and then the $310 area. On Monday morning, I said “f it holds the $317 area, volume could come in to clear last week’s high.” Well, volume came in and it hit $354.66. Wow! It could use a few days off. But if it can flag above the $338 area and let the moving averages catch up, maybe it can take out $360.Facebook (FB) had a lot of news about privacy/data issues last week. It had a Red Dog Reversal around the 21 day on Friday. It got a nice push in the past few sessions. If it can hold the $192 area, perhaps it clears the $195 area. Tech was at new highs and then sold down a bit after the Fed with a small topping tail. QQQ hit a high of $177.14. We’ll see if we get more follow-down selling. As long as it holds the 8 day, it can stay special. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Can Netflix Put on a Good Show?
Netflix (NFLX) was the first high-beta tech name to really break out and tell us the market could have some power. Today, it got a huge price target bump from Goldman. If it can stay above $369.83, it can show some power and create F.O.M.O. (fear of missing out) in names like AMZN, GOOGL, and FB. The bears want the NFLX strength to get sold, so let’s keep an eye on it.The banks are always in focus on Fed Day. I’m in Bank of America (BAC) and I want to see the $29.75 area to hold. It’s right around that now, and I want to see how the Fed affects it. Biotech’s still in focus so let’s look at IBB, which I’m long as of this morning. It cleared $107.80 and $110.10 to hit a high of $111.29. Now I’m going to see if it can hold $109.50 to keep the stair step move higher intact. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Red Dog’s New Dogs: NTNX, BSTI, SOGO
Many people think all I trade and watch is big cap tech, but nothing could be further from the truth. I have a lot of tech names on my regular Go To List, but I’m always on the lookout for new names to add to my radar screen. Nutanix (NTNX) is name that just came back on my radar screen. In today’s Redler All-Acccess Morning Note, I said “NTNX still looks good. It’s getting tight. The bulls want a strong move above $57.40.” And as you can see on my chart, I said the next real level to clear is $60:As you can see on the 5 minute chart, NTNX broke through $57.40 with authority and then cleared $60. Wow! Best Inc. (BSTI) is another new name for me. I bought some yesterday and will consider adding on a very strong close above the $13.25 area. Sogou (SOGO) is another interesting name I nibbled on. I would get to know it, because it has a shot at working its way back to the post-IPO highs around the $14.70 area. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: What Could Trigger More Upside in TSLA This Week?
Tesla (TSLA) has been a real battleground stock. It had a big day on volume, clearing $301 and then the $310 area to see $330ish. If it can hold $313ish this week and close above the $324.50 area, perhaps it can see more upside this week. On Friday, the SPX absorbed a lower open and closed near the highs. This week, as long as we hold 2750ish, the active bulls stay in control for the possibility of clearing 2779 to test the 2800 area. Tech took a few days off after a big move. As long as the QQQ’s hold the $173 area, it seems constructive with the potential for higher prices. Let’s see if the F.A.N.G. names hold Friday’s lows, and if they perk up. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Secrets of Trend Analysis: The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Moving Averages
Moving averages are one of my most important trading tools. They help me figure out:1) Whether I want to be in a Portfolio Approach or Tactical Approach2) Which stocks I want to be long or short3) The strength of the current market trend In fact, if I was a beginning trader looking to build my net worth, moving averages would be my #1 focus. In this lesson, you’re going to see the power of judging stocks and the market using the 8 & 21 day moving averages. First, let’s run through the basics so we’re on the same page.What Is a Moving Average?A moving average is a stock’s average price over a certain time period. We’re going to focus on the daily time frame this article. A daily moving average is the average of a stock’s daily closing price. For example, the 50 day moving average is a stock’s average closing price for the last 50 days. Every day, the newest closing price in the moving averages replaces the oldest, which is why we call it ‘moving’ — it’s changing every day. Here’s a simple chart of Apple (AAPL) with its 50 day moving average. Simple vs. Exponential Moving AveragesThere are 2 types of moving averages — simple and exponential. A simple moving average is a straight average of the stock price. An exponential moving average gives recent prices a bigger weight, so it does a better job of measuring recent momentum. Going forward in this article, we will only use exponential moving averages.The 8 day moving average will be shown in magenta.And the 21 day moving average will be in red.The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Moving AveragesTraders often ask me why I talk about the 8 & 21 day moving averages so much. Whether you see me on CNBC, Twitter, or the Virtual Trading Floor®, odds are you’ll see me talking about them. It’s because these moving averages are the most accurate short-term road map I’ve found. The 8 & 21 day moving averages are the most accurate short-term road map you can find – @reddogt3 Click to Tweet This Tip from Scott Redler! A Chart’s Worth a Thousand WordsLet’s rewind the clock back to the Brexit in June 2016. The day before the Brexit vote, the SPY hit $210.87. And the day after the ‘shocking’ vote, it hit $188.65.If you were focused on the headlines, you were feeling pretty scared:A Statement of StrengthBut let’s extend the chart to see what actually happened. As you can see, SPY started bouncing, and on June 30, 2016, it reclaimed the 8 & 21 day moving averages:That’s a statement of strength. Why? Because it meant momentum was shifting back to the upside. And in this case, SPY briefly retested the 8 & 21 day moving averages before rallying above $219:Price Action vs. OpinionsEveryone had an opinion over what the Brexit would mean. But as you just saw in the charts, our opinions didn’t matter as much as the market’s. When SPY reclaimed the 8 & 21 day moving averages with authority, it screamed that the bulls were retaking control. And that’s an important lesson for you: when a stock/index/ETF reclaims the 8 & 21 day moving averages with authority, PAY ATTENTION! When a stock reclaims the 8 & 21 day MA’s with authority, PAY ATTENTION! – @reddogt3 Click to Tweet This Tip from Scott Redler! How I Use the 8 & 21 Day Moving Averages to Manage Market ExposureYou just saw how a big break above the 8 & 21 day moving averages can mean a big move higher. Now let me show you how I use the 8 & 21 day moving averages to get less aggressive, or even bearish. I have two primary approaches to the market: a Portfolio Approach and a Tactical Approach When the SPY is trending above the 8 & 21 day moving averages, I am in a Portfolio Approach. I’ll usually have 4-12 long positions in stocks showing relative strength, and occasionally even more. When the SPY breaks the 8 & 21 day moving averages, I get in a Tactical Approach. I start taking profits, especially with weaker names, and I may even put on SPY or IWM hedges. Portfolio Approach SPY above the 8 & 21 day Long w/ 4-12 positions on No hedge unless we get extendedTactical Approach SPY breaks the 8 & 21 day Start taking profits Hedge with SPY/IWM shortPop Quiz!Here’s a chart of the SPY with its 8 & 21 day moving averages:As you can see, it reclaimed the 8 & 21 day moving averages with force. After that happened, would it be better to be long multiple stocks? Or short the market? Click here for the answer! Long!! It would be better to be long, because the SPY made an aggressive move above the 8 & 21 day. That’s a sign the bulls were retaking control. And as you can see a huge rally ensued! P.S. That was the post-election rally, when the market skyrocketed after some initial volatility. Like the Brexit, the post-election headlines were scary… but the price action was awfully bullish. A Final Tip on Stock SelectionYou’ve already learned how to use the 8 & 21 day moving averages to detect a change in trend, and how to use them for portfolio adjustments. I’m going to give you a final lesson in handling momentum stocks… specifically, how not to get run over by one! If you take one lesson away from this article, it’s this: NEVER short a stock that shows momentum above the 8 & 21 day moving averages. NEVER short a stock that shows momentum above the 8 & 21 day moving averages – @reddogt3 Click to Tweet This Tip from Scott Redler! This is most true with controversial momentum names. Take Tesla (TSLA). In late 2016, the headlines were pretty rough:But as you know, the price action is more important than the headlines. Tesla reclaimed the 8 & 21 day moving averages, and rode the 8 day up from $190 to $287+.No matter what the headlines and fundamentals are saying, you never want to short stocks like this. I’ve seen a lot of traders fall in love
Continue Reading -->Blast from the Past: T3 Live Featured in Documentary by China’s CCTV-2
On September 22, 2010, CCTV-2, the business channel of China’s state broadcaster, aired the first installment of “Wall Street”, a 10-part documentary covering all angles of New York’s famed business landmark. The documentary surveys several angles of the finance world, including major media outlets, big banks, and T3 traders including Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler, who appeared in the first episode. ‘China’s first finance documentary’ took 800 hours of footage and three years to make, and ranks among the most expensive documentaries CCTV has ever produced. The producers, directors and cameramen were all involved in CCTV’s award-winning documentary series Rise of the Great Powers, Capital Market, and Water Cries. The series speaks not only to the history of Wall Street, but also reveals the transformation of global capital markets over the past 200 years. T3Live.com was strategically chosen for the first installment of the series to represent the new generation of Wall Street: young, vibrant, innovative, technology driven and committed to bringing transparency to the markets. During the two-week intensive filming period, CCTV’s crew got a first-hand look at the inner workings of the company, and came away impressed with T3 Live’s mission and ability to empower the individual investor through its comprehensive trading education website at T3Live.com. In China, interest in trading the US markets has grown considerably, and now Chinese individuals will have access top professionals trading the markets every day, in real time.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: 4 Life Lessons to Get You Through the Bad Times
One year ago today, I was laying on my belly, staring at the floor… and wondering if I’d ever walk again. But let’s rewind the story a bit. I’ve been a competitive racer since I was 30, finishing over 50 triathlons and marathons, including two Ironman events. I’ve also coached runners and raised money for the Steven M. Perez foundation, the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society, the American Cancer Society, and the R. Baby Foundation. I keep all the mementos in my man cave: Steven Perez was my best friend since we were roommates at SUNY Albany. In 2007, he was diagnosed with Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia. Steven’s doctors did all they could to treat him, and our circle of family and friends pitched in to help. But after 6 weeks fighting the toughest battle on Earth, Steven passed away. I was horribly depressed, and only one thing seemed to help: exercise. So to raise money for The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society and the newly-formed Steven M. Perez Foundation, I completed my first Ironman triathlon. That’s when I really became a serious endurance athlete. I’d been racing for years, but finishing an Ironman was a whole new level for me. Unfortunately, my success came with a price. Years of serious training and racing took a big toll on my body. I had a lot of wear & tear, and I never really recovered from it. And throughout 2015, it was obvious that something was very wrong with me. My left leg was atrophying, and it would go numb if I stood for too long. My back was killing me. I had a hard time getting out of my chair, and I was barely sleeping. And I looked horrible. I was pale and losing weight, and I was shorter because of my shrinking leg. At Thanksgiving, a doctor friend was pumping me with injections just so I could stand up to cook! I spent 3 months in physical therapy, but deep down, I knew it was nothing more than a band-aid. I was wasting my time because I was afraid to face the music. But I couldn’t take any more of those scared looks from my wife and son. Even our dog Cadence knew something was wrong! So I finally came to my senses and just gave up. I visited Dr. Mitchell Reiter, a New Jersey-based orthopedic surgeon and spine specialist. Dr. Reiter diagnosed me with a sequestered spinal disc, which was putting tremendous pressure on my spinal canal. I was quickly scheduled for a Laminectomy operation to fix the problem. And that’s how I found myself laying on my belly, staring at the floor… and wondering if I’d ever walk again. Now, I’ll admit I was being a little melodramatic. Laminectomies have a pretty high success rate. And I trusted my doctor. But when times are tough, it’s hard to stop thinking about every little thing that can go wrong. The surgery was a success, and I began my recovery. It wasn’t easy. I could barely get up for days. My wife was carrying me around the house! And my friends moved the Christmas tree up to my bedroom so I could see it without going on a never-ending journey to the living room. I took 2 weeks off work. I never had that much time off before, and being away from my trading screens made me stir crazy. By the time I returned to work, I was 20 pounds lighter and my face was the color of skim milk. My own videographer didn’t recognize me, even though we’d been working together every day for over a year! But as much as my body changed, my mind changed even more. I began appreciating the little things. Forget the Ironman — suddenly, just getting through a stretching session was a big deal! Being pain free felt better than any medal I ever won! And I may never do another triathlon again. But you know what? I just ran alongside my son Chace as he finished his first 5K! He took home the gold, and I’ll never forget crossing the finish line with him. There are 4 simple, but valuable lessons to be learned here: 1) The Darkest Hour Is Just Before the Dawn Those last few moments before my surgery were some of the darkest I’ve ever been through. And you know what? That was the bottom. Things only got better. 2) Your Goals Should Change When Life Throws You Curveballs I used to think I’d be a high-level competitive racer forever. That may no longer be realistic, and I’m okay with that. I love coaching, and I’m more than happy to run smaller races until I get a better idea of my long-term prognosis. I don’t have to be “elite,” whatever that means. I just want to be the best I can be. 3) You Probably Have More Support Than You Think My family stepped up for me in ways you can’t imagine: That’s Celena, Chace, and our dog Cadence. I would not have made it back without all three of them! My parents were great too, always checking up on me to make sure I was doing okay. Aren’t they cool? And it feels silly now, but I was really worried subscribers would be ticked off while I was gone! But you were awesome — I received hundreds of supportive Tweets and emails, many of which included your personal stories of dealing with your own health problems. And not a single Redler All-Access subscriber cancelled due to my absence! That showed me that we are all part of a powerful global community. Here are some of our friends from Ukraine: (I’m in the front with the pink socks!) So just reach out when you need a hand. Odds are, people will there to help, and they’ll be happy to do so. 4) It’s Okay to Want to Give Up… Just Don’t We all go through rough times. Some have it worse than others, but we all have our own
Continue Reading -->