Category Archives for T3 Trader Sentiment Survey
Tesla: Traders Are DEADLOCKED!
Last week, traders were squared up against Tesla (TSLA).This week, we’re deadlocked.Normally, we begin the weekly T3 Sentiment Report with the SPX, but our Tesla data has been so interesting that we’re leading with it again. Tesla Sentiment COLLAPSES! Sentiment on Tesla improved quite a bit week-over-week. So instead of outright bearish, traders are now split 50-50 over Tesla.The stock is down about $200 off the highs and was down last week, so it’s interesting that bullish sentiment improved from that 35% number. Meanwhile, now CEO Elon Musk is trolling Bernie Sanders on Twitter, which seems to be exciting the peanut gallery. The big question now is “will dip buyers jump in Tesla now?” We’ll see. Trader Grow More Optimistic on Stocks The market was up Thursday and Friday, and SPX futures are up fractionally on Monday morning. So it’s no surprise SPX bullishness pushed up to 77%. Traders Still Like Bitcoin Bitcoin bullishness has improved quite a bit since the October 21 Flash Crash on Binance.us. And we’re not surprised – Bitcoin has been in a nice uptrend, and has been up for 3 straight days, as you can see on the chart: Traders Still Like Apple Apple’s (AAPL) last earnings report was less than stellar, but traders don’t care. Apple bullishness has been rising, based on the perception that the company’s biggest problem is its inability to get enough supply. Apple literally has too many customers and not enough stuff to sell ’em. Gold Feels the Love For the second week in a row, traders like gold more than Tesla, according to our survey data. While gold and other precious metals have been lousy performers year-to-date, they have been surging as of late, as you can see in this chart of GLD: Why the surge? Inflation just hit a 30-year high at 6.2%, and many investors and traders view gold as a hedge against inflation. Oil Bulls Back Off Crude oil prices have slipped off the highs, so it’s no surprise that oil sentiment has more or less flattened out in recent weeks. Oil is falling Monday morning, so we’ll see if that weighs on energy sector sentiment.Make Your Voice HeardWant to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel. We’ll also email you survey results early on Monday mornings. Within the next few weeks, we’ll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis! Thanks for reading!
Continue Reading -->Exclusive: Tesla Sentiment Collapses After Elon Musk Tweets
What’s the #1 insight from this week’s T3 Sentiment Survey?Traders are turning against Tesla (TSLA). Normally, we begin this weekly report with the SPX, but this Tesla data is so shocking we have to start with that. Tesla Sentiment COLLAPSES! Bullish sentiment on Tesla (TSLA) dropped BIG. Just 35% of surveyed traders believe Tesla will rise in the next 30 days:That’s down from 63% last week. Why is this happening? Over the weekend, Tesla CEO Elon Musk floated the idea of selling 20% of his stock.Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock.Do you support this?— Lorde Edge (@elonmusk) November 6, 2021 Plus, Tesla stock ripped from $851 to $1250 after earnings and traders likely started thinking “this is too much, too fast.” Look at this chart:Combine that with the Musk Tweets, and traders really turned on the stock. As we’re writing this early Monday morning, Tesla is down about $50. But stay tuned… this latest twist in the Elon Musk saga is only starting… Trader Grow More Wary of Stocks Bullish sentiment on stocks backed off a bit from last week as traders content with a tricky earnings season and ongoing concerns over the supply chain crunch, inflation, and high energy prices. Bitcoin Bulls Are BACK! Bitcoin bullishness has been rising since the October 21 Flash Crash on Binance.us. And we’re not surprised at this latest surge – Bitcoin is up over $5,000 from Saturday’s low. Traders Still Like Apple Traders still like Apple (AAPL), even though the company’s earnings report was less than stellar. However, Apple seems to have more of a supply demand than a demand problem, so the company’s prospects appear strong. Gold Still Gets No love Now this is kind of hilarious: Ttraders like gold more than Tesla… at least according to this week’s survey. Still, gold remains out of favor overall, and that’s no big surprise. Here are the major metals ETFs performance year-to-date:GLD: -4.8%GDX: +3.2%SLV: -9.0%Meanwhile, the SPY is up 25.3% and QQQ is up 27.0%. Oil Bulls Back Off Oil prices slipped over the past weeks, and so the oil bulls are backing off a bit. However, Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its crude oil, so we’ll see if prices surge again.Make Your Voice HeardWant to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel. We’ll also email you survey results early on Monday mornings. Within the next few weeks, we’ll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis! Thanks for reading!
Continue Reading -->T3 Sentiment Survey: Why Is Tesla Loved LESS?
Welcome to the result of our weekly sentiment survey! As a reminder, our survey measures traders’ opinions on 6 different instruments:The S&P 500BitcoinApple (AAPL)Tesla (TSLA)GoldOilWe use a 30-day time horizon to get a sense of traders’ near-term expectations for the market. This week, you’ll want to see what’s happening with Tesla (TSLA)! Scroll down to see the details… Trader Still Love Stocks The stock market’s been remarkably stable despite concerns about the Fed, interest rates, earnings season, and the global supply chain crunch. Yes, we had a scare in early October, but it didn’t last:As you can see, bullishness increased from last week, which is no surprise given the market’s strength. We went from October scare to a parabolic move straight up. The Bitcoin Love Is Back Bitcoin bullishness stabilized last week, following the October 21 Flash Crash on Binance.us. Traders Grow More Cautious After Apple Earnings Apple (AAPL) stock got roughed up on Friday after the company’s disappointing earnings report, so it’s no surprise bullishness slipped a bit from last week. Traders Love Tesla LESS Despite Record Highs Tesla (TSLA) has been RIPPING since earnings, as you can see on the chart:And the stock is actually up another $40 to $1154 on Monday morning as we write this. Yet, bullishness on Tesla is slipping. It seems like many traders believe Tesla has gone too far, too fast – which is quite common for high-octane momentum stocks. We have to wonder if this means Tesla has even MORE room to run. Because if there are doubters, that may mean the crowd is not yet “all in” on the stock. And interestingly, according to Yahoo! Finance, the average price target on Tesla is just $779. That’s $375 BELOW the current stock price. Gold Still Gets No love Gold is still the least-liked asset in our survey, and that’s no surprise. Previous metals have been some of the worst performers in 2021. Just take a look at a year-to-date chart of GLD:Here are the major metals ETFs performance year-to-date:GLD: -6.6%GDX: -12.0%SLV: -10.1%Meanwhile, the SPY is up 22.8% and QQQ is up 23.1%. Ripping Oil Stocks Keeping Traders Bullish Traders remain bullish on energy, and that’s no surprise. Crude oil is up +73% year-to-date. Plus, XLE is up +51.6% with OIH right behind at +36.5%. That makes them the top 2 performing major sector ETFs of 2021. Make Sure Your Voice HeardWant to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel. Within the next few weeks, we’ll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis! Thanks for reading!
Continue Reading -->T3 Sentiment Survey: Traders Love Oil, Sour on Bitcoin
Welcome to the results of the second ever T3 Trader Sentiment Survey!As a reminder, our survey measures traders’ opinions on 6 different instruments:The S&P 500BitcoinApple (AAPL)Tesla (TSLA)GoldOilWe use a 30-day time horizon to get a sense of traders’ near-term expectations for the market. This week, we’ve made a shift to simplify our data presentation. In our survey, we ask traders where each asset will go in the next 30 days, with the option to answer up, down, or not sure. We’ve eliminated the “not sure” answers to focus on traders with real opinions about each one. So the numbers below use the Up/Down entries only to determine the percentage of Up vs. Down.Trader Are Slightly Less Bullish on Stocks It seems that traders are becoming slightly more cautious as we had through earnings season. There’s been a lot of concerns about inflation, energy prices, the debt ceiling, and supply chain disruptions, which may be souring the mood a bit. However, there are still 2.4 bulls for every bear, so it’s hard to call the crowd even remotely negative.Traders Feel the Bitcoin Volatility Bitcoin had a wild week, including an 87% flash crash on Bitfinex. Bitcoin went from nearly $67,000 last Wednesday to under $60,000 on Sunday, so needless to say, some traders got stung. So there’s no surprise Bitcoin bullishness fell to 57% from 70%.Traders More Caution on Apple Into Earnings Apple (AAPL) sentiment fell to 67% from 74%, despite the very well-received Macbook Pro event on Monday. Traders are more focused on supply chain concerns. Apple has seemed to mostly evade these issues, but industry analysts believe the company could get caught up. Stay tuned — we’ll know a lot more with the company’s earnings on Thursday.Tesla All-Time Highs Don’t Impress Traders Much Tesla (TSLA) reported blowout earnings last Wednesday and is actually indicated to open at record highs this morning. However, you wouldn’t know it by looking out our survey, as bullish sentiment decreased slightly. It’s likely that some traders believed profit taking would set in.Rising Inflation Puts Gold in Spotlight Gold was the least liked asset in last week’s survey, but bullish sentiment increased for this week. Why? Inflation. Many traders believe (perhaps wrongly) that gold is an effective hedge against inflation, and so they expect gold to outperform.Screaming Oil Prices Have Traders BullishCrude oil prices have been ripping, with prices rising over $85 this morning. So it’s not surprise to see more oil bulls. Energy is the #1 sector in 2021, with XLE up 53% YTD and OIH up 44%. And based on our survey results, traders are more bullish on oil than any of our other 5 assets.Make Sure Your Voice HeardWant to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel. Within the next few weeks, we’ll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis! Thanks for reading!
Continue Reading -->T3 Sentiment Survey: 69% of Traders Are Bullish
Welcome to the results of the first ever T3 Trader Sentiment Survey!Most sentiment surveys focus on a single asset like the S&P 500 or a broad generality like “the stock market.” But our survey measures your opinions on 6 different instruments:The S&P 500BitcoinApple (AAPL)Tesla (TSLA)GoldOilWe are also using a 30-day time horizon to get a sense of traders’ near-term expectations for the market. You’ll also notice that we don’t offer a “neutral” option. Instead, we have a “not sure” option. This is to reduce the number of people answering questions about assets they don’t follow. And it helps us focus on people with strong opinions.And to help you make better sense of traders’ feelings, we include a Bull-Bear ratio for each instrument. For example, on the S&P 500, we have 4.1 bulls for every bear. While on Gold, there are just 1.2 bulls for every bear. Want to participate in next weekend’s survey? Cick here to sign up so you can participate.Starting next week, we’ll begin sharing historical data so you can better use our survey information in your own analysis.Now, let’s jump into this week’s data:The Big Picture This chart gives you a big picture view of how traders view the 6 assets in our survey: Now that you’ve seen the 30,000 foot view, let’s drill down to individual assets.Trader Are Bullish on Stocks SPX Bull-Bear Ratio: 4.1 to 1 There’s been a lot of concerns about inflation, energy prices, the debt ceiling, and supply chain disruptions heading into earnings season. But based on our survey results, traders don’t seem worried. A whopping 69% are bullish, while a mere 18% are bearish. That’s more than 4 bulls for every bear! Bitcoin Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.3 to 1 Traders are positive on Bitcoin, but less so than they are on stocks. 58% see Bitcoin going up in the next 30 days. Apple Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.8 to 1 Apple is a favorite of individual investors… or so we thought. While 69% of traders are bullish on the market overall, just 59% are bullish on Apple. We’ll see if Apple’ October 18 ‘Unleashed’ opinion changes any minds. Tesla Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.2 to 1 Tesla (TSLA) is another cult favorite. And while Tesla stock has been on a tear… you wouldn’t know it by looking at the data. Like Apple, Tesla is less loved than the S&P 500. Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.2 to 1 Gold is the least-liked asset in our survey, Just 38% of traders are bullish on gold. That’s no surprise given that Gold is down -7% year-to-date vs. a +19% gain for the S&P 500.Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.9 to 1 Traders are fairly positive on oil, with 54% of respondents saying oil will go up in the next 30 days. No shocker – oil’s been tearing it up because of the global energy crunch. And fun fact: energy is the top performing stock market sector in 2021. XLE is up 51% while OIH Is up 45%. For reference, the F.A.N.G. stocks (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) are up 25% on average, and the SPY is up 19%.Make Sure You Join!Want to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel. As time goes on, we’ll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis! Thanks for reading!
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