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T3 Sentiment Survey: Traders Love Oil, Sour on Bitcoin


Welcome to the results of the second ever T3 Trader Sentiment Survey!

As a reminder, our survey measures traders' opinions on 6 different instruments:

  • The S&P 500
  • Bitcoin
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Tesla (TSLA)
  • Gold
  • Oil

We use a 30-day time horizon to get a sense of traders' near-term expectations for the market. 

This week, we've made a shift to simplify our data presentation. In our survey, we ask traders where each asset will go in the next 30 days, with the option to answer up, down, or not sure.

We've eliminated the "not sure" answers to focus on traders with real opinions about each one. So the numbers below use the Up/Down entries only to determine the percentage of Up vs. Down.

Trader Are Slightly Less Bullish on Stocks

It seems that traders are becoming slightly more cautious as we had through earnings season. There's been a lot of concerns about inflation, energy prices, the debt ceiling, and supply chain disruptions, which may be souring the mood a bit.

However, there are still 2.4 bulls for every bear, so it's hard to call the crowd even remotely negative.

Traders Feel the Bitcoin Volatility 

Bitcoin had a wild week, including an 87% flash crash on Bitfinex. 

Bitcoin went from nearly $67,000 last Wednesday to under $60,000 on Sunday, so needless to say, some traders got stung.

So there's no surprise Bitcoin bullishness fell to 57% from 70%.

Traders More Caution on Apple Into Earnings

Apple (AAPL) sentiment fell to 67% from 74%, despite the very well-received Macbook Pro event on Monday.

Traders are more focused on supply chain concerns. Apple has seemed to mostly evade these issues, but industry analysts believe the company could get caught up.

Stay tuned -- we'll know a lot more with the company's earnings on Thursday.

Tesla All-Time Highs Don't Impress Traders Much

Tesla (TSLA) reported blowout earnings last Wednesday and is actually indicated to open at record highs this morning.

However, you wouldn't know it by looking out our survey, as bullish sentiment decreased slightly.

It's likely that some traders believed profit taking would set in.

Rising Inflation Puts Gold in Spotlight

Gold was the least liked asset in last week's survey, but bullish sentiment increased for this week.

Why? Inflation.

Many traders believe (perhaps wrongly) that gold is an effective hedge against inflation, and so they expect gold to outperform.

Screaming Oil Prices Have Traders Bullish

Crude oil prices have been ripping, with prices rising over $85 this morning.

So it's not surprise to see more oil bulls. Energy is the #1 sector  in 2021, with XLE up 53% YTD and OIH up 44%.

And based on our survey results, traders are more bullish on oil than any of our other 5 assets.

Make Sure Your Voice Heard

Want to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel.

Within the next few weeks, we'll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis!

Thanks for reading!

Leave a Comment:

1 comment
Michael Bruce says October 25, 2021

If you are going to add your personal comments or bias on the outcomes then I won’t participate. We have artificial inflation, back breaking inflation, inflation that has been hidden in rising house prices and stock markets. So there’s no where to go and as the price of necessities rise the normal economy gets choked and then you can’t service your debt, hence the rush to gold as a hedge.

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