Options In Play – The Earnings Season Gameplan
As earnings season heats up, it is important to have a plan in place for how you want to approach reports. We spend a lot of time talking about different strategies with different risk profiles, and it helps narrow out attention on quality setups.
Continue Reading -->Adding a Cannabis Name to Power Plays…
I just added a cannabis name to my Power Plays service. Why? Most of the time, the group is EXTREMELY hard. The stocks can go down whether the news is good or bad. Look at this chart of the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ): MJ is up just +2.4% +YTD. For comparison: SPY is up 21% QQQ is up 20% XLE (energy) is up 53% The F.A.N.G. stocks are up 27% But once or twice a year, the cannabis sector is ripe to catch up — and it typically happens in the fourth quarter. And this particular name I’m selecting for Power Plays seem primed for an early January effect move. (the January effect seems to happen a little earlier each year) Want in? Join Power Plays with a $39 monthly subscription and you’ll get my full take, plus a $95 bonus on me. Limited time! Click here to learn all the details!
Continue Reading -->What Needs to Happen to Start an Uptrend
The market broke its downtrend and put in one higher high and one lower low. Sami says that’s good enough to go off of, but not enough for an uptrend to be well-established. Find out what his uptrend criteria are and what you should watch for. In this video, Sami explains: – What a red bar will be the ultimate confirmation of – Why last September was his worst month – How AAPL compares to NVDA – Which Chinese stocks he prefers (including his favorite) – What the second entry for ETN is
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: What the Market Cares About
We have mixed markets to start the week as the narratives change a bit.. Inflation and higher rates still dominate the headlines but supply chain worries hit their peak last week. China and the Pandemic went on the back burner a few weeks ago. Earnings season is underway. Last week traders were rewarded for using my process to buy leaders and get risk back on when the 8/21 day gets reclaimed like SPX did at 4380. That was the day after a Red Dog Reversal buy signal last Wednesday. SPX futures are -20 which makes sense after such a big move. This gives traders a way to cover some hedges, and perhaps add back stocks they trimmed into last week’s strength. I’d think 4440-4445 holds to keep this new active long sequence intact. it can even see 4380 and still be fine – just a little choppier.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. The banks played their usual game. JPM’s report was sold, then they rallied each day after and XLF hit a high of $39.71. It could use a digestive day above $39.18. My JPM plan worked great. I bought $165 calls into weakness last Wednesday in the $1.50 area. I trimmed over half Friday to get smaller. Earnings are quickly approaching. NFLX is tomorrow and TSLA is Wednesday. The rest of F.A.N.G. reports next week. NFLX paid us a few times as it cleared the channel to see $646+. Then it took the week off. It has a decent looking bull flag. I might put on a call spread for Tuesdays’ earnings for a move above the recent highs. I’ll post it if I do today. TSLA has been a great relative strength play. It held the 8 day while the SPX was hitting the 100 day. Then it cleared the $807 area and is above $850 this morning. Being away for my race helped me stay long. I’ll trim most into this earnings Wednesday. I don’t take stock into earnings. I might do an options play but I’m not sure yet. AAPL did not lead this last move but participated. They have an event today where they are expected to announce new MacBooks and a new generation of AirPods. See if there’s any surprises. It needs to hold the $143.50 area to stay constructive.Positions Disclosure as of 10/18/2021 at 8:08 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->T3 Sentiment Survey: 69% of Traders Are Bullish
Welcome to the results of the first ever T3 Trader Sentiment Survey!Most sentiment surveys focus on a single asset like the S&P 500 or a broad generality like “the stock market.” But our survey measures your opinions on 6 different instruments:The S&P 500BitcoinApple (AAPL)Tesla (TSLA)GoldOilWe are also using a 30-day time horizon to get a sense of traders’ near-term expectations for the market. You’ll also notice that we don’t offer a “neutral” option. Instead, we have a “not sure” option. This is to reduce the number of people answering questions about assets they don’t follow. And it helps us focus on people with strong opinions.And to help you make better sense of traders’ feelings, we include a Bull-Bear ratio for each instrument. For example, on the S&P 500, we have 4.1 bulls for every bear. While on Gold, there are just 1.2 bulls for every bear. Want to participate in next weekend’s survey? Cick here to sign up so you can participate.Starting next week, we’ll begin sharing historical data so you can better use our survey information in your own analysis.Now, let’s jump into this week’s data:The Big Picture This chart gives you a big picture view of how traders view the 6 assets in our survey: Now that you’ve seen the 30,000 foot view, let’s drill down to individual assets.Trader Are Bullish on Stocks SPX Bull-Bear Ratio: 4.1 to 1 There’s been a lot of concerns about inflation, energy prices, the debt ceiling, and supply chain disruptions heading into earnings season. But based on our survey results, traders don’t seem worried. A whopping 69% are bullish, while a mere 18% are bearish. That’s more than 4 bulls for every bear! Bitcoin Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.3 to 1 Traders are positive on Bitcoin, but less so than they are on stocks. 58% see Bitcoin going up in the next 30 days. Apple Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.8 to 1 Apple is a favorite of individual investors… or so we thought. While 69% of traders are bullish on the market overall, just 59% are bullish on Apple. We’ll see if Apple’ October 18 ‘Unleashed’ opinion changes any minds. Tesla Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.2 to 1 Tesla (TSLA) is another cult favorite. And while Tesla stock has been on a tear… you wouldn’t know it by looking at the data. Like Apple, Tesla is less loved than the S&P 500. Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.2 to 1 Gold is the least-liked asset in our survey, Just 38% of traders are bullish on gold. That’s no surprise given that Gold is down -7% year-to-date vs. a +19% gain for the S&P 500.Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.9 to 1 Traders are fairly positive on oil, with 54% of respondents saying oil will go up in the next 30 days. No shocker – oil’s been tearing it up because of the global energy crunch. And fun fact: energy is the top performing stock market sector in 2021. XLE is up 51% while OIH Is up 45%. For reference, the F.A.N.G. stocks (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) are up 25% on average, and the SPY is up 19%.Make Sure You Join!Want to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel. As time goes on, we’ll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis! Thanks for reading!
Continue Reading -->Options In Play – The Three Day Event Window
Sometimes old Wall Street sayings ring true, and the three day rule is a classic. It can be a great rule to remember around earnings too.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Interviewed on The SimCast Show
Want to get to know Scott Redler a little better? Watch Episode 2 of The SimCast episode, where Scott discusses moving averages, the Red Dog Reversal, and more! When you’re done, click here to check out Scott’s new service Power Plays!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: The Big Oil Story
We have mixed markets around the world with rising energy prices, rates, and inflation dominating the narrative.SPY had a nice calculated move from $429 up to the $442 resistance area. Friday it started to fill the gap and this morning it’s around $435. Perhaps there’s a 5-15-30 minute low to add some back against this morning. $432.50 is the last support line to keep things looking constructive. So see if that holds.Now let’s dig into some of the individual things I’m watching. Oil is at 7-year highs over $81. OIH has been a nice swing long for the past two weeks. I’d be looking to trim, not add. It’s almost finished the measured move to $220. The 10 year (TNX) didn’t pull in with Friday’s weak jobs report. It held the 1.57% line I talked about. Now it’s on the way to the March highs which can keep some pressure on tech. Watch TNX and TLT intraday to help measure the action. NFLX hit my measured move of $640+ so I’m out. Some will stay as long as it keeps riding the 8 day down near the $620 area. UBER: I bought last Wednesday as the pattern looked great and Mark Mahaney called it his favorite pick. It cleared $46.89 to see $48.88 where I got smaller to book some profits with my tier system. Now, I’d like to see it hold the $47.50 area to stay with it. Bitcoin has had nice power since clearing $44,000. It hit $55,000+. It’s pretty impressive that it held $53,000. Now it looks headed to the $59,000-$64,900 zone.Positions Disclosure as of 10/4/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->What It Will Take For an Uptrend
SPY has finally broken its long uptrend and has started to trend down. Friday ended with a bullish bar, but that doesn’t mean much – UNLESS the bar produces follow through. Find out what Sami thinks will happen this week. In this video, Sami explains: – Why you should keep an eye on IWM – His method for setting a stop in a name like AFRM – What to do with stocks that only have a daily buy setup – Which stocks he prefers to take as investments – His favorite chart for the upcoming week
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Why Rates Matter Now
SPX futures are -10 after a rollercoaster ride overnight. We’ll see if there’s any commitment to Friday’s reversal. SPY needs to hold the $432-$433 range. A close below that and it gets very choppy. QQQ’s need to hold the $357 area. Watch the 10 year (TNX) and TLT for clues on the broader action. (more on these below)Now let’s dig into some of the individual things I’m watching. Rates are dictating a lot of the trade because that’s how the computers are programmed. TNX broke below 1.50% and hit 1.46% Friday which helped tech. Watch it today. If the 10 year is going back to the March highs at 1.7%, tech will remain vulnerable. TLT bounced which helped the tech reversal. It’s down today. See if it holds the $143.65 area. Otherwise tech can really get hit. If it tries for green, perhaps we get some red to green action in tech. Banks should be good to buy on dips as we get higher rates in the coming months. XLF has last week’s low at $37.49 to trade against.BAC had a big move from $40 to $44+ for some. It held the 8 day where I bought some to try and position for better upside. This might be the place to be if rates continue to trend higher. $44.04 is a recent high. I will only add on dips. The F.A.N.G.-type names have been under pressure and just giving tactical trades for now as rates rise. TSLA will be very important today. It had very strong deliveries. Can it hold the early strength and stay above $793-$799 and extend higher? Or does the news get sold? This will be a big measure of sentiment and risks so pay close attention. NFLX has been the best F.A.N.G. type name and held the 8 day Friday. I’d see if today’s dip is buyable. It would be constructive to hold the $599-$608 area. The Squid Game is really popular and is getting a lot of press.Positions Disclosure as of 10/4/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
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