T3 Sentiment Survey: 69% of Traders Are Bullish
Welcome to the results of the first ever T3 Trader Sentiment Survey!Most sentiment surveys focus on a single asset like the S&P 500 or a broad generality like “the stock market.” But our survey measures your opinions on 6 different instruments:The S&P 500BitcoinApple (AAPL)Tesla (TSLA)GoldOilWe are also using a 30-day time horizon to get a sense of traders’ near-term expectations for the market. You’ll also notice that we don’t offer a “neutral” option. Instead, we have a “not sure” option. This is to reduce the number of people answering questions about assets they don’t follow. And it helps us focus on people with strong opinions.And to help you make better sense of traders’ feelings, we include a Bull-Bear ratio for each instrument. For example, on the S&P 500, we have 4.1 bulls for every bear. While on Gold, there are just 1.2 bulls for every bear. Want to participate in next weekend’s survey? Cick here to sign up so you can participate.Starting next week, we’ll begin sharing historical data so you can better use our survey information in your own analysis.Now, let’s jump into this week’s data:The Big Picture This chart gives you a big picture view of how traders view the 6 assets in our survey: Now that you’ve seen the 30,000 foot view, let’s drill down to individual assets.Trader Are Bullish on Stocks SPX Bull-Bear Ratio: 4.1 to 1 There’s been a lot of concerns about inflation, energy prices, the debt ceiling, and supply chain disruptions heading into earnings season. But based on our survey results, traders don’t seem worried. A whopping 69% are bullish, while a mere 18% are bearish. That’s more than 4 bulls for every bear! Bitcoin Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.3 to 1 Traders are positive on Bitcoin, but less so than they are on stocks. 58% see Bitcoin going up in the next 30 days. Apple Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.8 to 1 Apple is a favorite of individual investors… or so we thought. While 69% of traders are bullish on the market overall, just 59% are bullish on Apple. We’ll see if Apple’ October 18 ‘Unleashed’ opinion changes any minds. Tesla Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.2 to 1 Tesla (TSLA) is another cult favorite. And while Tesla stock has been on a tear… you wouldn’t know it by looking at the data. Like Apple, Tesla is less loved than the S&P 500. Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.2 to 1 Gold is the least-liked asset in our survey, Just 38% of traders are bullish on gold. That’s no surprise given that Gold is down -7% year-to-date vs. a +19% gain for the S&P 500.Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.9 to 1 Traders are fairly positive on oil, with 54% of respondents saying oil will go up in the next 30 days. No shocker – oil’s been tearing it up because of the global energy crunch. And fun fact: energy is the top performing stock market sector in 2021. XLE is up 51% while OIH Is up 45%. For reference, the F.A.N.G. stocks (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) are up 25% on average, and the SPY is up 19%.Make Sure You Join!Want to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel. As time goes on, we’ll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis! Thanks for reading!
Continue Reading -->Options In Play – The Three Day Event Window
Sometimes old Wall Street sayings ring true, and the three day rule is a classic. It can be a great rule to remember around earnings too.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Interviewed on The SimCast Show
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Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: The Big Oil Story
We have mixed markets around the world with rising energy prices, rates, and inflation dominating the narrative.SPY had a nice calculated move from $429 up to the $442 resistance area. Friday it started to fill the gap and this morning it’s around $435. Perhaps there’s a 5-15-30 minute low to add some back against this morning. $432.50 is the last support line to keep things looking constructive. So see if that holds.Now let’s dig into some of the individual things I’m watching. Oil is at 7-year highs over $81. OIH has been a nice swing long for the past two weeks. I’d be looking to trim, not add. It’s almost finished the measured move to $220. The 10 year (TNX) didn’t pull in with Friday’s weak jobs report. It held the 1.57% line I talked about. Now it’s on the way to the March highs which can keep some pressure on tech. Watch TNX and TLT intraday to help measure the action. NFLX hit my measured move of $640+ so I’m out. Some will stay as long as it keeps riding the 8 day down near the $620 area. UBER: I bought last Wednesday as the pattern looked great and Mark Mahaney called it his favorite pick. It cleared $46.89 to see $48.88 where I got smaller to book some profits with my tier system. Now, I’d like to see it hold the $47.50 area to stay with it. Bitcoin has had nice power since clearing $44,000. It hit $55,000+. It’s pretty impressive that it held $53,000. Now it looks headed to the $59,000-$64,900 zone.Positions Disclosure as of 10/4/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->What It Will Take For an Uptrend
SPY has finally broken its long uptrend and has started to trend down. Friday ended with a bullish bar, but that doesn’t mean much – UNLESS the bar produces follow through. Find out what Sami thinks will happen this week. In this video, Sami explains: – Why you should keep an eye on IWM – His method for setting a stop in a name like AFRM – What to do with stocks that only have a daily buy setup – Which stocks he prefers to take as investments – His favorite chart for the upcoming week
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Why Rates Matter Now
SPX futures are -10 after a rollercoaster ride overnight. We’ll see if there’s any commitment to Friday’s reversal. SPY needs to hold the $432-$433 range. A close below that and it gets very choppy. QQQ’s need to hold the $357 area. Watch the 10 year (TNX) and TLT for clues on the broader action. (more on these below)Now let’s dig into some of the individual things I’m watching. Rates are dictating a lot of the trade because that’s how the computers are programmed. TNX broke below 1.50% and hit 1.46% Friday which helped tech. Watch it today. If the 10 year is going back to the March highs at 1.7%, tech will remain vulnerable. TLT bounced which helped the tech reversal. It’s down today. See if it holds the $143.65 area. Otherwise tech can really get hit. If it tries for green, perhaps we get some red to green action in tech. Banks should be good to buy on dips as we get higher rates in the coming months. XLF has last week’s low at $37.49 to trade against.BAC had a big move from $40 to $44+ for some. It held the 8 day where I bought some to try and position for better upside. This might be the place to be if rates continue to trend higher. $44.04 is a recent high. I will only add on dips. The F.A.N.G.-type names have been under pressure and just giving tactical trades for now as rates rise. TSLA will be very important today. It had very strong deliveries. Can it hold the early strength and stay above $793-$799 and extend higher? Or does the news get sold? This will be a big measure of sentiment and risks so pay close attention. NFLX has been the best F.A.N.G. type name and held the 8 day Friday. I’d see if today’s dip is buyable. It would be constructive to hold the $599-$608 area. The Squid Game is really popular and is getting a lot of press.Positions Disclosure as of 10/4/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Options In Play – Straddles And Strangles Outside Of Earnings
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Continue Reading -->Options In Play – Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
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Continue Reading -->Up in the Air
Last week the market started off with a big gap down, nearly reaching Sami’s target in one day, but then spent the rest of the week moving up. Right now it’s anyone’s guess which way the market is going this week, but Sami discusses what will signal a bullish or bearish move. In this video, Sami explains: – Why he hopes the market will turn bullish – Which pattern can be found in AVDL – The chart to watch for CALX – Where CHRS could be heading – How to find two buy setups in COUP
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Where the Algos Go
SPX futures are -5 and off the overnight highs. For this market to rebuild and remain constructive for active longs, the 4400 area needs to hold. It did go from the 100 day up to 4463 fast. We’re seeing a bit of digestion and it seems like the algos are programmed to buy banks and value after the Fed’s hawkish language. Yields are lifting which could get worrisome at some point, but for now it’s considered a “normalization process.”Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. I took a lot of DATS in the $8.50 area. It triggered above $9.13 to see $12+ to manage my last tier. Now I’d like to see it hold $10 on the remainder. HOOD was a good buy in the $41 area and it hit $47+ to book some gains. I’m still in some and will see if the $44 area holds to stay with it. CALX was a nice trade through $49 and it hit $53.50. I did buy some as it held $50. That spot needs to hold for the stock to stay special. FCEL isn’t an over focus, but I picked some up around $6.50 to see if it gets a better bounce if small caps do a bit better. Holding $6.70ish keeps it looking okay. I put on DLO last week and it acted well. Now it needs to clear $68ish with volume to open the door for $73+.Positions Disclosure as of 9/27/2021 at 8:24 a.m. ET
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