How You Can Avoid Most Breakout Failures
Sami Abusaad | Black RoomToday’s video is about how to avoid most breakout failures, how to spot the end of a move, and how to successfully initiate a counter-trend trade.
Continue Reading -->Netflix in Pain: Why I Don’t Take Stock Into Earnings
SPX futures are -4 as we see many F.A.N.G.-type names and other tech stocks getting hit on NFLX’ revenue and subscriber miss. The analysts had it right last week when they started talking down the sub estimates. Super high P/E stocks can’t go up 100%+ and then miss earnings. This situation is exactly why I don’t take stock into earnings. I use options since the risk is premium paid. I have no position and I’m proceeding carefully. It might be best to wait until tomorrow to see today’s candle to make a fresh plan. Let’s see if it puts in a 5-15-30-60 minute low. $343-$345 is an area to watch, and there is a big level to watch at $338ish.Since we’re talking F.A.N.G. names, yesterday I said this about AMZN: “If I was long it, I’d consider trimming because it’s a little extended here.” AMZN closed on the lows and it’s down with NFLX today. See if it holds $1795. If not, the 8 day is all the way down at $1763.Now let’s turn to the SPX. Futures are -5 as tech is under pressure from NFLX. Today, let’s see if we hold 2791. That could be difficult. If we break and say below, we have the 8 day at 2780ish, and then 2761 is a huge level. If NFLX can rally off a low, that may help things. Also, see if some flows go to banks or energy to help mute the weakness.
Continue Reading -->When a Risk-Reward Profile Changes an Options Trade
Options in PlayOptions Trades with Kurt CapraThis video will talk about the recently closed out VFC trade. Risk to reward profiles played a big role in determining when to sell, and we will go over why.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: What If the Analysts Are Wrong About Netflix?
Last week, I got stopped out in NFLX when it lost upper momentum at the $411 area. The stock is up 100% this year, and a few analysts are worried about European sub numbers causing a miss. I’m approaching this one cautiously. Today, let’s see how it handles the $395 pivot. Today, let’s see how it handles the $395 pivot. And after the earnings report hits, if the analysts are wrong and NFLX beats, $419-$423 is key resistance to clear. If the report is light, see how it handles the $380 area, or the 50 day down at $365. I’m watching potential options plays, but I’ll probably wait until around the close to do anything.HUYA is a very active name that’s been a favorite of RAA readers. Now, see if it holds $36.25 to keep momentum and stay special. BABA lost some momentum this past month on all the trade banter. It now has a lower-level wedge type pattern building. $189.30 is pivot support. To get some strength back, it has to get above $192.12. It’s a good name to watch for clues.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Is SPX 2800 on Tap? Tech May Hold the Answer
Can the SPX hit the 2800 mark again? Tech may hold the clues. The QQQ still acts well. $175.80 is our new pivot support to watch. A strong move and close over $178 could mean a charge to SPX 2800.Now let’s take another look at a IQ, a name we’ve focused on in the past few months. It came down from $46.23 to $30.20 and it’s trying to rebuild. I’m long a bit overnight. If it can get and say above $32-$32.40, it should open the door for a move to the $34 area and possible more.Now let’s look at IBB. IBB had a Red Dog Reversal on 6/28 and it has acted well very since then. Last Friday, it had a big pro gap on the BIIB news. And now it has a pretty impressive high-level bull flag. A move and hold above $117 can take it back to 2018 highs.
Continue Reading -->An Options-Centric Look at the Start of Earnings Season
Options in PlayOptions Trades with Kurt CapraToday’s video is going to cover earnings for the remainder of the week. Financials have been struggling and earnings this week will determine whether a developing turnaround gains momentum.
Continue Reading -->7 Keys to Being a More Consistent and More Profitable Active Trader
Want to start earning consistent profits as a trader?Good. You’re in the right place, because we’re going to talk about some topics that get ignored all-too often in the trading world.7. Take a Loss Without Freaking OutHere’s a sign that you’re going down the wrong path as a trader: you lose a few hundred bucks, and you freak out. You slam your keyboard down, you use some foul language, and you want to quit.This is bad, bad, bad! Here’s a harsh reality that too few people in the trading industry talk about: losing is part of winning.If you can’t deal with losses, you’ll never make it.6. Hit a Home Run Without Freaking OutOn the flip side, you shouldn’t get too excited when you nail a trade that lands $6K in your bank account.Why? Because trading requires a steady hand. And you can’t let your excitement cloud your judgement.And if you’re progressing in the right way, winning will be just another day at the office! 5. Talk to Traders That Are More Experienced and More Successful Than YouEven the most elite professional athletes hire coaches in the off-season. They know the value of an expert’s point of view.Trading is no different. If you’re not getting the results you want, by definition you need help. So talk to more successful traders about your troubles. Odds are, they’ve been down the same road you have, and they can help.4. Know the Difference Between a Breakout and a FakeoutThe media wants you to believe that every tick up or down is a big deal.To succeed as a trader, you must be able to tell the difference between real moves and fake moves. And you must be able to tell that difference instantly.If you can’t look at a chart and break it down in short order, you may need additional training.3. Actually Learn a Real Trading Method99% of traders are operating at random. They use a random collection of tactics learned from books, videos, and online forums.The most successful traders are systems-oriented. They use trading methodologies where all the elements — market analysis, entries/exits, risk management. etc. — work together.This prevents you from trading on feelings and emotions.2. Put Some Real Time InYou can learn a lot about trading in a few days. But making money on a consistent basis takes time.Making money in and of itself is a skill. Only through experience can you learn what it’s like to deal with an overly volatile market, or your ego spinning out of control after a great trade.Focus on learning a process and methodology over time, and you’ll gain true control over your trading. You also need to give yourself time to succeed — there are no overnight successes in this business.1. Improve Your Batting AverageHere’s an obvious truth that too many people ignore: if you want to turn your trading account in a paycheck, you need to win more often.You need more accurate entries and exits. And you need to make more money on each trade.It’s not easy, but it is simple: win more often, lose less often, and you get more consistent returns.Do you want more consistent results?Are you ready to put some time in to take your trading to the next level?And are you ready to get mentored by expert traders that have conquered the challenges you’re facing right now?Then check out the T3 Live Ultimate Profit Solution. –> Learn about the Ultimate Profit Solution
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Can Netflix Stay Super Special?
Netflix (NFLX) still has best in breed status, but today we’ll really see if it can stay super special. To stay that way, it has to hold the $411 area. If not, it can hit $408 to fill the gap. I’ll be watching it closely on the open to see if it’s buyable.We’ll see if tech can help today after a move back to all-time highs. QQQ $175.80 is upper support. If this holds, the downside will be muted. If not, the $174 area will be key to watch. Tech will give us clues on the market so be mindful here.The President is pushing for tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, just as the SPX hit big resistance at 2800. Thank goodness this came after markets were up for 4-5 sessions and overbought, giving us signals to ligten up. Now we’ll see what areas hold for possible new longs. Holding 2760ish would be very constructive to hold for the next few sessions. We can’t rule out the 2745 area — under that and the active bulls lose control. Watch the small caps and tech today to see if they help pull the market off the lows.
Continue Reading -->LB at an Inflection Point | Options in Play
Options in PlayOptions Trades with Kurt CapraToday’s video covers a recent LB trade, which we have mentioned a couple times in recent nightly letters. The stock is at an inflection point and monthly comp number’s this Thursday could be the catalyst to turn things around.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Why I’m Not Crazy About This Open
On Friday, Apple (AAPL) reclaimed all moving averages on Friday as it cleared the $188 area. Yesterday, it hit a high of $190.68. See if it holds the gap pivot of $189.30 to keep some active upper commitment.As I said, on Thursday, tech gave clues that markets could be bought. QQQ’s cleared the lower-level pivot and filled the gap above $174 to show some power on Friday. Now see if it can hold $175.74 to work its way back towards $177.98.And let’s talk about Netflix (NFLX) since we focused on it so much last week. This was my favorite pattern. It broke above $400 and hit a high of $408.65 Friday, and today it’s up another $7. I trimmed some and will manage the rest. It’s in the game to hit all-time highs but might need to digest first.
Continue Reading -->