Morning Call Express: A Day to Take Notice
In today’s Morning Call Express, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler discusses the action in SPX and IBB, as well as gold. P.S. My buddy Rob Smith is hosting a free trading webinar after the close today. Click here to check it out.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Hillary Clinton Beats Up Biotech
The power of quantified trading… Thursday after the close, T3’s Rob Smith is hosting a special strategy session on his unique Quant Edge Trading Strategy. Learn more about it. 1) A Little Scare We have now gone 41 days without a 1% down move in the S&P 500, but the bears made some progress today. The S&P 500 finished down just -0.5%, but below the surface, the action was pretty ugly. The red hot Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) was up 1.0% in early trading, but it collapsed intraday and closed down -3.4%. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton attacked pharma company Mylan(MYL) for raising the price of its EpiPen emergency allergy treatment, which implies that the drug industry could again come under fire over pricing practices. We also saw many hot momentum stocks like Twilio (TWLO) andAcacia (ACIA) get hit hard. But only time will tell if I finally get paid on my VIX calls… 2) Oil Takes a Hit Crude oil fell nearly 3% on a very bearish inventory report from the Energy Information Administration. Traders expected an -850K decline in US crude stocks, but they actually grew by 2,501K. This 3,351K barrel miss just about erases last week’s 3,458K beat. However, keep in mind that oil has been moving on chatter about a possible OPEC production freeze, so keep an eye out for those headlines. 3) Playing in Italy This morning, I added a position in the iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI). Italy is one of the worst-performing and most hated markets in the world, and options traders are putting up big money in the options market to bet on further declines. Since sentiment is so incredibly negative, Italy may be washed out, so I decided to dip my toe in. I plan on treating this as a “set it and forget it” position. P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Rob Smith’s FREE training session! Thursday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (8/20): exp. 265k , prior 262k 08:30 Continuing Claims (8/13): exp. 2155k , prior 2175k 08:30 Durable Goods Orders (Jul P): exp. 3.40% , prior -3.90% 08:30 Durables Ex Transportation (Jul P): exp. 0.40% , prior -0.40% 08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (Jul P): exp. 0.20% , prior 0.40% 08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (Jul P): exp. 0.30% , prior -0.20% 09:45 Markit US Services PMI (Aug P): exp. 51.8 , prior 51.4 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI (Aug P): prior 51.8 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (8/21): prior 43.6 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (8/19): exp. 16 , prior 22 10:30 EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (8/19): exp. 16 , prior 22 11:00 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (Aug): exp. -2 , prior -6 18:30 Fed’s George to Meet Fed Up with Other Fed Leaders Invited Global Economics 04:00 EUR German ifo Business Climate 19:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y Earnings Before Open: 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) Dollar General (DG) Dollar Tree (DLTR) Sears Holdings (SHLD) Tiffany & Co (TIF) After Close: Brocade Comm. (BRCD) GameStop (GME)
Continue Reading -->Webinar Replay: What You Need to Know About Forex
In this special webinar, T3 Live Forex Strategist Kurt Capra breaks down: How to get started in forex trading Why stock and options traders should consider forex The 5 major lies that stop traders like you from making money in forex Interested in joining our next Forex Profit Accelerator Trading Lab at a special discounted rate? Call our team at 1-888-998-3548 or email info@t3live.com.
Continue Reading -->Market Update: Crude Oil’s Freaky Mirror Image
Get a Quant Edge in Today’s Markets Tomorrow after the close, Rob Smith is hosting a FREE webinar on his unique Quant Edge Trading Strategy. Read all about it The headline number on this morning’s crude oil inventory report was an almost perfect mirror image of last week’ The consensus was -850K. The actual number was +2501K. Last week, the consensus was +950K. And the actual number was -2508K. Weird, huh? Now let’s talk about the reaction. WTI crude is over $1 off morning highs, and the VIX has spiked to 13.20. The weak oil report is impacting sentiment already. The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 39 (39 call options bought for every 100 puts). However, as it stands now, we’re only seeing intermittent weakness in equities. The S&P 500 is down just -0.2, and I’m seeing one very important pocket of strength: the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is up 1.4%, and it is just plain hard to bet against this market when biotech is doing so well. We have not had a real down day since June 27. If today is to be the start of something real for the bears, they’ve got to attack biotech. They’ve already started beating on some of the hot new issues like Acacia (ACIA) and Line Corp. (LN), but biotech is key. P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Rob Smith’s FREE webinar.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPY & GDX
Get a Quant Edge in Today’s Markets Tomorrow after the close, Rob Smith is hosting a FREE webinar on his unique Quant Edge Trading Strategy. Read all about it SPX futures are up 1-2 handles in a very choppy lethargic trend to the upside. I would expect more of the same until Friday. We’ll see if we can break above $219.60ish, if all those warnings about a market correction since MAY come to light: Stay tuned. GDX has been the place to be in 2016 with lots of buyable pivots and trends. Recently, it lost momentum when it broke $30.40. A break and close below the 50 day could trigger selling in this crowded trade. P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Rob Smith’s FREE webinar.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express Video
In today’s Morning Call Express video, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler discusses the action in SPX and GDX, as well as individual names like TSLA and ACIA.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: The Bears Are Long F.O.M.O.
Get a Quant Edge in Today’s Markets Tomorrow after the close, Rob Smith is hosting a FREE webinar on his unique Quant Edge Trading Strategy. Read all about it The waiting game continues. We’ve now gone 32 trading days without a 1% up move, and 40 days without a 1% down move. It’s been a beautiful ride for the bulls becuase they’ve been enjoying a picture-perfect grind up. But it’s been hell for bears, particularly those buying put options. The slow upward movement and declining volatility slowly kills the value of those puts a penny at a time. I always think it’s far better to lose fast, because at least you get it over with. Now it seems like a lot of bears are tempted to capitulate to stop the slow bleed. But at the same time, there’s a big FOMO (fear or missing out) element. What if you cover just ahead of what seems like an inevitable market drop? I’m long VIX calls (which is basically a highly leveraged SPX short), so that’s the boat I’m in. I’m down about 9%, which isn’t the end of the world on an options positions, but I admit I’m growing restless. SPX futures are up fractionally following a decent up day in Europe. The stalemate looks set to continue ahead of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday. It seems like traders are starting to buy into the recent hawkish trend in Fedspeak. Fed fund futures now imply a 53% chance of a December rate hike, up from 45% a month ago and 9% post-Brexit on June 27. That has gold and Treasuries sagging a bit. Crude oil is off a little on the American Petroleum Institute inventory report. The API said we had a 4.5 million barrel build in US crude stocks last week, which was a surprise. We get EIA data today at 10:30 a.m. ET. The current consensus calls for an -850K decline in inventories. However, remember that oil has been moving on chatter about the September OPEC meeting. We’re seeing a lot of conflicting news reports about whether OPEC will institute an output freeze or cut, so it’s getting hard to gauge the importance of data. I’m long oil (through the KYN and BGR closed-end funds), but I’m not going to hazard a guess as to what OPEC’s going to do. We’ve also got Existing Home Sales and the FHFA House Price Index on tap today. Housing stocks were up huge on yesterday’s big New Home Sales numbers, so maybe there’s action there again today. But I think biotech (IBB) may tell the tale for now. That group’s been pretty strong the past couple of days, and recent history shows that when biotech does well, the bears tend to fail. Good luck out there. P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Rob Smith’s FREE webinar.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: The Bull Just Keeps on Grindin’
Why are so many traders terrified of forex? This afternoon, my buddy Kurt Capra is hosting a FREE webinar on how you can get started in the lucrative, exciting world of forex. Click here to learn more. 1) Hot Oil! Crude oil was weak in the early going, but shot up intraday after Reuters reported that Iran may support a production freeze at the September OPEC meeting. Oil has been seeing some minor profit-taking on speculation that OPEC may disappoint the market by keeping production unchanged. The push up in oil helped energy stocks outperform, and the S&P Energy ETF (XLE) rose 0.7%. Oil service stocks were also decent, with the Vaneck Vectors Oil Service ETF (OIH) up 0.5%. 2) 31 Days of Nothing We’ve now gone 31 days without 1% move in the S&P 500 as the index continued its slow upward grind with a 0.2% rally to 2186.90. Traders were encouraged by solid European economic data and the aforementioned oil rally. Housing stocks were up big on strong earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL) and impressive US New Home Sales, which are at a multi-year high. Biotechnology and pharmaceutical names also outperformed for the second straight day, and regional banks were up nicely as Treasury yields rose. Gold miners were in the decliners’ column on a slump in gold prices. 3) Second Term Parallels Today, my colleague Jeff Cooper pointed out that the market fell hard at the end of Presidents’ Bill Clinton and George W. Bush’s second terms: The market rallied into September 1, 2000 as Clinton’s second term was coming to a close, and then dropped 41.5% into its November low. The market topped on August 15, 2008 as Bush’s second term was ending, and lost 48.4% going into a November low. Continue reading… P.S. Click here to sign up for our forex event! Wednesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (8/19): prior -4.00% 09:00 House Price Purchase Index QoQ (2Q): prior 1.30% 09:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM (Jun): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.20% 10:00 Existing Home Sales (Jul): exp. 5.51m, prior 5.57m 10:00 Existing Home Sales MoM (Jul): exp. -1.20%, prior 1.10% 10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (8/19): exp. -850k, prior -2508k 10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (8/19): exp. -300k, prior -724k 10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (8/19): exp. -1700k, prior -2724k 10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (8/19): exp. 500k, prior 1939k 10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (8/19): exp. -0.55%, prior 1.30% 10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (8/19): prior 17148 10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (8/19): prior 10216.4 10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (8/19): prior 4754 Global Economics 04:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals Earnings Before Open: Express Inc (EXPR) After Close: GUESS? Inc (GES) HP Inc (HPQ) Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Workday Inc (WDAY)
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express Video: Base Building
In today’s Morning Call Express, T3 Live’s Chief Strategic Officer breaks down the action in EWG and SPX, as well as C,BAC, and AAPL.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Something’s Gotta Give!
Don’t Fear Forex… Attend my buddy Kurt Capra free webinar tonight and learn why so many stock and options traders are embracing the lucrative world of forex. Click here for more info. European markets are up this morning on solid economic data. Euro area PMI rose to 53.3 in August from 53.3, which implies little impact from the Brexit. France’s was better than expected, while Germany’s was a little weaker. On the US economic calendar, we’ve got the Markit US manufacturing PMI, Richmond Fed, and New Home Sales. Best Buy (BBY) beat by a mile and is up 14%, extending what’s generally been a pretty decent earnings season for big box retailers. Meanwhile, the Bank of Montreal (BOM) beat on strong retail banking activity. SPX futures are in modestly positive territory following yesterday’s yawnfest. Biotech is indicated higher following massive outperformance on the back of the Pfizer (PFE)/Medivation (MDVN) deal. Bloomberg is reporting that Bayer and Monsanto (MON) are closer to closing their deal, which has been stuck on issues like the price and termination fee. Crude oil is down again this morning after Iraq’s Oil Minister asked foreign oil companies to increase oil production and exports. The dollar is down after making solid gains on hawkish comments from the Fed’s Fischer and other officials. Some traders may be taking their feet off the gas ahead of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday. I’m not in the business of trying to game the Fed, so I’ll just point out that in June, Yellen came out dovish after a barrage of hawkish comments from Fed officials. So please, tread carefully. Otherwise, we’re back to the same old grind. The action’s been so lame that it makes the April-May lull look like a firestorm in comparison. I am long VIX calls and I’m sitting on a loss of about 8%. That’s not the end of the world, but now I’m in that no man’s land where I’m worried about getting shaken out at the worst possible moment. But I’m going to stick it out for now. Arguing with the market is for fools, but we’ve gone 31 days without a 1% move. And we’ve gone 39 days without a 1% down move. Something’s gotta give. Right? P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Kurt Capra’s free forex trading event!
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