Register now for next week’s pro trader Q&A with Chartered Market Technician Andrew Moss on LinkedIn! DJIA Futures: -194 (-0.6%) SPX Futures: -34 (-0.8%) NASDAQ Futures: -160 (-1.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower as stocks are headed for a losing week. Let’s get right to it! Yields Slip After Fed Speakers Treasury yields are down this morning as investors digest recent comments from several Fed speakers. The 2-year yield is down 9 basis points to 4.71% while the 10-year yield is down 9 basis points to 3.71%. In Congressional testimony this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the bank’s plans for additional rate hikes this year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman echoed those comments on Thursday saying she believes rates need to move higher to become “sufficiently restrictive”. More Fed officials are set to speak today including St Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. CarMax Jumps On Earnings Beat CarMax (KMX) shares are up 6.9% ahead of the open after beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the used car retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.16 vs $0.79 expected Revenue: $7.69 billion vs $7.49 billion expected Comparable-store sales declined 11.4% year over year, improving from 22.4% in Q3 and 14.1% in Q4. Starbucks Dips As Workers Plan To Strike Starbucks (SBUX) shares are down 1.8% in premarket trade as the Starbucks Workers United says some employees are planning to strike starting today. The union says more than 150 stores representing nearly 3,500 workers have pledged to join the strikes. The demonstrations come after the union alleged dozens of stores in the U.S. were not allowing workers to decorate for Pride month. But the company said in a statement, “There has been no change to any policy on this matter and we continue to encourage our store leaders to celebrate with their communities including for U.S. Pride month in June.” Starbucks added, “Workers United continues to spread false information about our benefits, policies and negotiation efforts—a tactic used to seemingly divide our partners and deflect from their failure to respond to bargaining sessions for more than 200 stores.” Virgin Galactic Tumbles After Stock Offering Virgin Galactic (SPCE) shares are tumbling 13.2% ahead of the open after announcing it raised $300 million via an “at the market” common stock offering. That was revealed in a securities filing on Thursday. The company also said it is aiming to raise an additional $400 million through a subsequent offering. The money will be used to fund the development and expansion of Virgin Galactic’s spacecraft fleet. In Case You Missed It Existing home sales rose unexpectedly in May. The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that existing sales rose 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 million units. That was better than expectations for 4.25 million. The median price of an existing home sold last month dropped 3.1% to $396,100, the largest decline since December 2021. Sales were down 20.4% year over year.
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Register now for next week’s pro trader Q&A with Chartered Market Technician Andrew Moss on LinkedIn! DJIA Futures: -64 (-0.2%) SPX Futures: -7 (-0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -32 (-0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping for the fourth straight day as the market rally continues to stall. Let’s get right to it! Powell Testimony Day 2 Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify in the Senate Banking Committee today for day two of his Semi-Annual Monetary Report to Congress. During his testimony in the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s plans to hike interest rates further this year. He said, “We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.” He emphasized that future rate decisions will remain data dependent. Bank Of England Hikes Rates The Bank of England approved another 50 basis point rate hike overnight, its 13th straight increase. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the move, bringing the base rate to 5%. The decision came after new data on Wednesday showed the U.K. annual CPI rate at 8.7% in May, unchanged from April. Core CPI increased to 7.1% annually in May vs 6.8% in April, the highest since March 1992. Weekly Jobless Claims Jump Weekly jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week to the highest level since late 2021. The Labor Department reported 264,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was up by 2,000 from the previous week and higher than expectations for claims to fall to 256,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.76 million in the week ending June 10 vs expectations for 1.78 million. Overstock.com Wins BBBY Auction Overstock.com (OSTK) shares are rallying 8.1% ahead of the open after winning the auction for Bed Bath & Beyond’s intellectual property and digital assets. Court records filed early this morning show Overstock.com will buy the brand name, business data, and digital assets for $21.5 million. The deal does not keep Bed Bath & Beyond stores open and still needs to be approved at a hearing on Tuesday. Bed Bath & Beyond is running a separate sale process for its Buy Buy Baby chain, hoping to find a bidder willing to keep those stores open. That auction is scheduled for next Wednesday.
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Register now for today’s free Q&A with pro trader Patrick Hawe on LinkedIn! DJIA Futures: -80 (-0.2%) SPX Futures: -11 (-0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -50 (-0.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping for the third straight day as traders await the Fed Chair’s testimony in Congress. Let’s get right to it! Powell Testimony Day 1 Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify in the House Financial Services Committee today for the first day of his two-day Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. In his prepared opening statement for the hearing, Powell said, “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.” This comes after the Fed skipped a rate hike last week but signaled plans for two more by year-end. Powell says inflation “remains well above” the Fed’s 2% target. His statement says, “the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go.” Powell’s testimony begins at 10:00 a.m. ET. FedEx Drops After Earnings FedEx (FDX) shares are down 2.9% ahead of the open after reporting mixed fiscal Q4 results. Here’s how the shipping giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $4.94 vs $4.85 expected Revenue: $21.9 billion vs $22.5 billion expected The CEO said, “The solid close to the fiscal year demonstrates the significant progress Team FedEx has made in advancing our global transformation while adapting to the dynamic demand environment. FedEx is becoming a more flexible, efficient and, data-driven organization.” But FedEx’s guidance came in short of expectations. The company forecast EPS between $16.50 and $18.50 for the coming fiscal year vs $18.30 expected. Mortgage Demand Flat Despite Lower Rates Mortgage demand was flat last week despite rates falling for the third straight week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume increased just 0.5% last week. Purchase applications increased 2% weekly and were 32% lower year over year. Refinance applications fell 2% weekly and 40% annually. The average 30-year fixed contract rate decreased to 6.73% from 6.77%. In Case You Missed It Rivian (RIVN) shares rallied 5.5% on Tuesday after announcing its customers will be able to access Tesla’s charging network in 2024. Current Rivian owners will be able to access Tesla chargers using an adapter and Rivian’s cars will be built with the Tesla-style charging port standard starting in 2025. Tesla (TSLA) shares also rose 5.3%.
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Register now for tomorrow’s free Q&A with pro trader Patrick Hawe on LinkedIn! DJIA Futures: -113 (-0.3%) SPX Futures: -13 (-0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -33 (-0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping as the holiday-shortened week of trading begins. Let’s get right to it! New Home Construction Surges New home construction surged unexpectedly in May as builders face strong demand from buyers. The Census Bureau reported housing starts jumped 21.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.63 million units. That beat expectations for starts to decline 0.8%. Single-family starts were up 18.5% while multi-family starts surged 28.1%. The building boom is expected to continue as new permits issued also jumped. Permits rose 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.49 million units. Single-family permits rose 4.8% while multi-family permits jumped 7.8%. The data comes after homebuilder confidence jumped more than expected this month. The National Association of Homebuilders’ sentiment index rose five points to 55. It was the sixth consecutive monthly increase and the first reading over 50 in 11 months. Sentiment about current sales conditions rose five points to 61, six-month sales expectations increased six points to 62, and buyer traffic increased four points to 37. Alibaba Falls Amid Executive Changes Alibaba (BABA) shares are down 2.1% ahead of the open after announcing CEO Daniel Zhang is stepping down. Zhang will be succeeded by Alibaba co-founder Eddie Wu as CEO. Current executive vice chairman Joe Tsai will also takeover Zhang’s position as chairman. Zhang will lead Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group as chairman and CEO starting September 10. The moves are part of the company’s plan to split into six business groups. Dice Therapeutics Surges On Eli Lilly Acquisition Dice Therapeutics (DICE) shares are surging in premarket trade after Eli Lilly (LLY) announced it will acquire the company. Lilly plans to pay $48 per share or about $2.1 billion in cash for the company. The acquisition is aimed at advancing innovation in immunology. Lilly’s executive vice president said, “In combination with its novel technology and expertise in drug discovery, DICE’s talented workforce and passion for innovation will enhance our efforts to make life better for people living with devastating autoimmune diseases.” The deal has been approved by both companies boards of directors and is expected to close in Q3.
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Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before you start, take a special sneak peak at this week’s special offer from Scott Redler. SHHH! Don’t tell anyone! Click Here to Access the Deal Use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Tech Booms AgainThe June SurgeBulls Have No FearA Light CalendarSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis on FireTrading Insights from Marty Zweig This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlargeQuick reminder: US markets are closed Monday, June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday. Week in Review: Tech Booms AgainFOMC Chair Jerome Powell’s “hawkish pause” did not deter the bulls, while the light CPI gave traders hope that inflation really is under control. Plus, the University of Michigan sentiment survey showed that US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations are at a two-year low. So while Powell is technically hawkish, it feels like the market is pricing in a rate-easing scenario far in the future. After all, tech and housing are booming. As such, from a price action perspective, the big story this week was the resurgence in tech with the QQQ’s up 3.8% and IWM falling behind after its recent surge. Having the 4 horsemen all in green territory despite feeling overbought is mighty impressive. From a sector perspective, we saw major strength in natural gas, airlines/travel, transports, and semiconductors. Some of this week’s leaders include: Carnival Cruise (CCL): +21%Intel (INTC): +16%Estee Lauder (EL): +16%Oracle (ORCL): +14%Catelent (CTLT): +14% Plus, tech superstars Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) hit all-time highs. The June SurgeNow let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:IWM and RSP (equal weight SPX ETF) are outperforming SPY, so the rally is broadening out a bit.Bulls Have No FearThe VIX is still at multi-year lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here. Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed a bullish sentiment for the second week in a row:45.2% of investors are bullish, in-line with last week’s 45.2% reading. This is the highest reading since November 11, 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months after that. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:Traders are still very bullish.A Light CalendarWe’re coming off a busy week with the FOMC Rate Decision and CPI, but we have a few key reports on tap:Tuesday: Building PermitsThursday: Jobless Claims, Existing Homes SalesFriday: Services PMIThe bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, but none of these reports are in the “make or break category.” Some Earnings BiggiesEarnings season has slowed down quite a bit but we saw three blockbusters last week with Oracle (ORCL), Lennar (LEN), and Adobe (ADBE).Keep an eye on these reports:Tuesday: Fedex (FDX) for insights on consumer spending and ecommerce demand Wednesday: KB Homes (KBH) – homebuilding stocks are up huge in 2023 and we’ll see if KB follow’s Lennar’s leadThursday: Darden Restaurants (DRI) – will tell us about consumer strengthFriday: CarMax (KMX) – used car stocks have been flying so we’ll see if the fundamentals are catching up with prices. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis on FireSemiconductors are still on fire with a 51.2% gain for SMH.Outside of tech, housing stocks are still booming and airlines are sneaking up on everyone too.Trading Insights from Marty ZweigDavid Prince of T3’s Inner Circle shared this on Twitter:pic.twitter.com/lvWYWm5puJ— The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince (@epictrades1) June 16, 2023 P.S. Don’t forget to take a peak at Scott Redler’s special offer. Click Here to Access the Deal
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Register now for next week’s free Q&A with pro trader Patrick Hawe on LinkedIn! DJIA Futures: +48 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: +11 (+0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: +54 (+0.4%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher with the S&P 500 on track for its best week since March. Let’s get right to it! Strong Week The market is on track to log its strongest week in two months. The S&P 500 is up nearly 3% this week, its best performance since March. It’s also the fifth positive week in a row for the S&P 500, the longest streak since November 2021. The Nasdaq is also on track for its best week since March, up nearly 4%. The tech-heavy index has risen for 8 weeks in a row, its longest winning streak since 2019. The Dow is also set to log its third positive week in a row. Adobe Tops Earnings Expectations Adobe (ADBE) shares are up 5.1% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q2 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $3.91 vs $3.79 expected Revenue: $4.82 billion vs $4.77 billion expected The CEO said, “Adobe achieved record Q2 revenue demonstrating strong demand across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. Adobe’s ground-breaking innovation positions us to lead the new era of generative AI given our rich datasets, foundation models, and ubiquitous product interfaces.” The company also raised its fiscal Q3 and full-year forecasts. Adobe now expects fiscal Q3 sales between $4.83 billion and $4.87 billion vs analysts’ estimates for $4.86 billion. The company forecast full-year adjusted EPS between $15.65 and $15.75 on revenue between $19.25 billion and $19.35 billion in fiscal 2023. Virgin Galactic Soars Virgin Galactic (SPCE) shares are soaring 40.1% in premarket trade after the company said it plans to launch its first commercial space tourism flight this month. Virgin said Thursday that the flight, Galactic 01, is targeting a launch window between June 27 and June 30. The company is then planning its second commercial flight in “early August”. Virgin said it’s aiming for “monthly” commercial flights after that. The first flight will carry three members of the Italian Air Force to conduct microgravity research with science payloads. The CEO said, “We are launching the first commercial spaceline for Earth with two dynamic products — our scientific research and private astronaut space missions.” Cava Makes Massive Debut Cava Group (CAVA) shares are up 5.4% ahead of the open, extending Thursday’s monster rally. The Mediterranean restaurant chain had a gangbusters debut on Wall Street after pricing its IPO at $22 per share. CAVA opened at $42 per share mid-session on Thursday and closed 99% higher at $43.78 per share. Reminder: Long Weekend Traders will get some extra time off this weekend with the Juneteenth holiday on Monday. Both the stock market and the bond market will be closed on Monday. Enjoy the long weekend!
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Register now for next week’s free Q&A with pro trader Patrick Hawe on LinkedIn! DJIA Futures: -42 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -14 (-0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -77 (-0.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower as traders digest Wednesday’s Fed decision and new economic data. Let’s get right to it! Two More Rate Hikes The Federal Reserve skipped a rate hike as expected on Wednesday but surprised traders with a more hawkish summary of economic projections. The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep rates unchanged at the current range of 5% to 5.25%. Chairman Jerome Powell said the bank would use the next six weeks to “take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy.” The Fed’s updated dot plot showed a terminal rate of 5.6% in 2023 which indicates two more 25bps rate hikes. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows over 69% of traders betting on a rate hike at the July meeting May Retail Sales Beat Forecasts U.S. retail sales rose unexpectedly in May. The Commerce Department reported retail sales jumped 0.3% to $686.6 billion. That beat expectations for sales to fall 0.2%. Sales at car dealers rose 1.4% while sales at building material stores jumped 2.2%. Gas stations saw the largest decrease, with sales falling 2.6%. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.1%, as expected. Weekly Jobless Claims Jump Weekly jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week. The Labor Department reported 262,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was up by 1,000 from the previous week and higher than 250,000 expected. Continuing claims also rose by 18,000 to 1.78 million in the week ending June 3. Mixed Manufacturing Data Two key manufacturing indexes show mixed activity across the country. The Empire State manufacturing index rose sharply this month to 6.6 from -13.8% in May. That beat economists’ expectations for the index to fall to -15. But the Philly Fed Manufacturing index fell further to -13.8 from -10.4 in May. That was in line with estimates. In Case You Missed It Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava priced its initial public offering at $22 per share on Wednesday. That was higher than the previously stated range of $19 to $20 per share. The company sold 14.4 million shares, raising $318 million. The IPO pricing values Cava at $2.45 billion, with more than 111 million shares outstanding. The stock is expected to debut today and trade under the ticker symbol CAVA.
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Register now for today’s free Q&A with Scott Redler on LinkedIn! DJIA Futures: -82 (-0.2%) SPX Futures: +4 (+0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: +9 (+0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are mixed as traders await the Fed decision this afternoon. Let’s get right to it! Fed Day The Federal Reserve is set to release its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET today. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows nearly 91% of traders expecting the bank to skip a rate hike today. That would leave the federal funds rate in a range of 5% to 5.25%. But there will be a lot of focus on the dot plot to determine if the bank plans one more rate hike this year. FedWatch shows nearly 58% of traders anticipating a 25bps hike next month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a post-meeting press conference at 2:00 p.m. ET. Wholesale Inflation Falls More Than Expected Wholesale inflation pressures cooled more than expected in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index dropped 0.3% monthly and was up just 1.1% year over year. That was better than economists’ expectations for a 0.1% monthly decline and 1.5% annual increase. It was the 11th consecutive decline in annual prices and the lowest since December 2020. The core PPI also came in better than forecast, rising 0.2% monthly and 2.8% year over year. The PPI is a leading indicator for consumer prices meaning this data is good news for the Fed’s hopes that inflation will continue to cool in the months ahead. Mortgage Demand Jumps Mortgage demand jumped last week as rates pulled back for the second week in a row. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume rose 7.2% from the previous week. Purchase applications rose 8% weekly but were 27% lower year over year. Refinance applications also rose 6% weekly but were 41% lower annually. The increase in activity came as the average 30-year fixed contract rate fell to 6.77% from 6.81%. Shell Boosts Dividend Shell (SHEL) shares are up 2.0% ahead of the open after announcing plans to raise its dividend. The oil giant announced it will increase its shareholder distributions to 30% to 40% of cash flow from operations. That’s up from 20% to 30% previously. The changes include hiking its dividend by 15% from Q2 and at least $5 billion of share buybacks in the second half of this year. The CEO said, “Performance, discipline, and simplification will be our guiding principles as we allocate capital to enhance shareholder distributions, while enabling the energy transition.” In Case You Missed It Tesla (TSLA) shares rallied 3.6% on Tuesday, extending the company’s record-long win streak. It was the 13th straight session TSLA has closed higher. It was also the highest closing price for the stock since September 2022.
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Register now for tomorrow’s free Q&A with Scott Redler on LinkedIn! DJIA Futures: +39 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: +13 (+0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: +98 (+0.7%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as new data shows inflation continuing to cool. Let’s get right to it! CPI Falls To Two-Year Low Inflation pressures continued to cool in May, falling to the lowest annual rate in more than two years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index rose 0.1% monthly and 4% year over year. That was the lowest annual increase since March 2021. But core inflation pressures, which exclude food and energy prices, were higher. The core CPI rose 0.4% monthly and 5.3% annually. All of the data was in line with economists’ expectations and is good news for traders hoping for Fed pause on Wednesday. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows 100% of traders betting the central bank will leave rates unchanged this week. Oracle Jumps After Earnings Beat Oracle (ORCL) shares are up 5.6% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q4 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the software company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.67 vs $1.58 expected Revenue: $13.84 billion vs $13.73 billion expected Total revenue rose 17% year over year while cloud services and license support revenue jumped 23%. Cloud infrastructure revenue soared 76%, building on the 55% growth seen in the previous quarter. Apple Slips After Hitting Record High Apple (AAPL) shares are down 0.3% in premarket trade after closing at a fresh record high on Monday. The iPhone maker’s stock gained 1.6% and closed at $183.79. The record comes after Apple unveiled its new VR headset the Vision Pro at its Worldwide Developers Conference last week. FTC Files To Block Microsoft-Activision Blizzard Merger The FTC is attempting to block Microsoft’s (MSFT) acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI). The agency applied for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to block the deal on Monday. Despite the move, MSFT shares are up 0.8% and ATVI shares are up 0.7% ahead of the open. The FTC is worried Microsoft may withhold popular Activision Blizzard games from launching on other game consoles or charge more for games that do launch on other consoles. The FTC’s hearing date for the deal fell after the July 18 deadline for the merger, which prompted the injunction request.
Continue Reading -->SPX futures are up 10 points after we kissed 4322 last Friday and pulled back a bit. I will see how we consolidate ahead of the CPI on Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. The active sequence from March was led by tech and started to broaden out a bit. Headlines this weekend talked about a “New Bull Market” but these definitions like “20% off the lows” have become more meaningless over the years. As long as we hold 4290ish, it’s hard to get too bearish. SPY hit a high of $431.99 on Friday and also touched $429.62. I will see how tight things get ahead of Wednesday. I did well buying SPY calls into weakness for the past few weeks. Tech continues to do a lot of the heavy lifting. The downtrend line was cleared in March and every time they try and rotate the flows, it repairs like we saw last Wednesday into Thursday. QQQ’s have active support at $353ish. As long as that holds, it’s hard to get too bearish here. I did well selling calls above the market last week. Now let’s dig into some individual names: AAPL provides ways to trade around a position. Investors and traders are being rewarded. The $180 area needs to hold to set up a potential move back to the $184.95 highs. TSLA: we were rewarded for getting very bullish on TSLA when it cleared $169.76 on May 17. There have been so many ways to make money since then with options and stock. It hit a high of $252.42 on Friday. It feels a little extended. I would trim if I was heavy in it. It seems like some digestion can happen. Holding the $242 gap pivot keeps it super special. Below and it can get choppier. META helped lead this tech rally with a high of $276ish and it’s now in rebuilding mode. $258ish is the recent low. See if early strength holds or fades today. $267.59 is Friday’s high. NVDA is trying to rebuild since the $419 high. Recently, it held $373ish and bounced. It seems like when it’s green, it goes red. And when it’s red, it goes green. So there is not much to do this morning. AMD gave us a super move from $91ish to $130+. It’s been in a corrective/digestive mode this past week. It held the $115.80 area again. I would keep taking trades, but I would trim some this morning. See how it holds up ahead of its AI chip unveiling event. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-06-12 at 9.12.01 AM
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