Tag Archives for " market recap "
The Morning Hammer: Post-Debate Happiness
The Mexican peso is up 1.7% this morning, which means Mr. Market thinks Hillary Clinton won last night’s steel cage match US Presidental debate. Meanwhile, the pound sterling is still falling in the wake of Friday’s flash crash. Crude oil is rising after Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said crude could hit $60 by year-end. OPEC recently announced a production cut, though market participants would certainly like more detail. European equities are up for the first time in 4 days on strength in automakers, throuhg banks are still looking weak. Deutsche Bank (DB) failed to announce a deal with the Department of Justice as some traders expected. China resumed trading after a week-long holiday, and the yuan dropped to a fresh 6-year low. Goldman Sachs says that US and European markets could stumble a bit into year-end due to political risks, a weak economy in Europe, and high stock prices in the US. The US dollar is still in bull market mode despite Friday’s slightly soft jobs report. Traders are pricing in a 64% probability of a December rate hike, though keep in mind, the pace thereafter what matters. According to some very smart folks I’ve spoken with, there’s an excellent chance the Fed is one and done. However, gold is catching a bid today, so I’d watch for a pop in the beaten down gold miners (GDX). Apple (AAPL) is up fractionally this morning on news reports that Samsung temporarily stopped production of its Galaxy Note 7 smartphone. The device was already recalled, but even replacement models are catching fire, which is a PR disaster. SPX futures are up about 11 handles this morning, so we’re starting the week off on a positive note. Biotech is catching a bid this morning — it’s been lagging to see if the weak trend breaks.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Do You Feel the Heat Around the Corner?
“Don’t let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.” -Neil McCauley, as portrayed by Robert DeNiro in Heat Before I get started, I’d like to invite you to check out the replay of our latest webinar Why You Shouldn’t Fear Forex. 1) Is that the Heat Around the Corner? For what seems like the 900th day in a row, the S&P 500 failed to make a substantial move. The index fell -0.2% to 2170.95 — far from a disaster — but tension is starting to appear on the tape. The index is now trading below its lost its 8 and 21 day exponential moving averages, indicating a loss of short-term momentum. Crude oil is almost 10% off its highs. (more on this below) Biotechnology, which has been slumping since Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s attack on Mylan (MYL) last week, continued its losing streak. The Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) recently lost its 20 day moving average, and it is sitting right on top of its 50 day moving average — a break of which could spook traders. However, keep in mind that the bears have not been able to score a real victory since June 27, when the S&P fell -1.8% post-Brexit. Since then, we have not had a single 1% down day. 2) Crude Oil Takes a Big Hit WTI crude oil dropped over 3% below $45 today on another bearish inventory report. The E.I.A. said US crude stocks rose 2.3 million barrels last week, which was well above the 1.3 million consensus. This was the second large surprise build in a row, giving traders another reason to take profits ahead of the September OPEC meeting in Algeria. There has been assorted chatter that OPEC will announce a production freeze at meeting, but that’s clearly up in the air. 3) The Hawk Trade Rages On The big hawk trade — long US dollar, long banks, and short gold — is still going strong on hopes of more Fed rate hikes. In the equity markets, the gold miners (GDX) continue to take the brunt of the damage, with GDX falling -1.6% after yesterday’s -4.9% decline. And on the flip side, regional banks (KRE) continue to be a source of leadership. KRE is a good ETF for active traders to follow since it makes bigger moves than the better-known S&P Financials ETF (XLF). Thursday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Aug): -57.10% 08:30 Nonfarm Productivity (2Q F): exp. -0.60%, prior -0.50% 08:30 Unit Labor Costs (2Q F): exp. 2.10%, prior 2.00% 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (8/27): exp. 265k, prior 261k 08:30 Continuing Claims (8/20): exp. 2145k, prior 2145k 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (8/28): prior 45.3 09:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Aug F): exp. 52.1, prior 52.1 10:00 Construction Spending MoM (Jul): exp. 0.50%, prior -0.60% 10:00 ISM Manufacturing (Aug): exp. 52, prior 52.6 10:00 ISM Prices Paid (Aug): exp. 54.8, prior 55 10:00 ISM New Orders (Aug): prior 56.9 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (8/26): exp. 42, prior 11 10:30 EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (8/26): exp. 42, prior 11 12:25 Fed’s Mester Speaks to Kentucky Philanthropy Initiative Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales (Aug): exp. 13.50m, prior 13.77m Wards Total Vehicle Sales (Aug): exp. 17.20m, prior 17.77m Global Economics 03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Earnings Before Open: Campbell Soup (CPB) Ciena Corp (CIEN) Joy Global (JOY) Lululemon Athletica (LULU) After Close: Ambarella (AMBA) Broadcom (AVGO) Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC)
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: The Fed Is Dead Ahead
The power of quantified trading… Next Thursday, T3’s Rob Smith is hosting a special strategy session on his unique Quant Edge methodology. Learn more about it. 1) All Eyes on Yellen Traders are eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole at 10:00 a.m. ET tomorrow. Fed officials have been very hawkish as of late, and today, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said on Bloomberg TV that higher rates were warranted since the US is near full employment with rising inflation. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan also offered hawkish comments on CNBC,. Traders are now pricing in a 55% chance of a December rate hike, up from 47% 2 weeks ago and just 9% after the June 24 Brexit. However, keep in mind that the Fed has been fairly unpredictable this year. So it will be interesting to see if Yellen gives the hawkish statements everyone is expecting. 2) Flat as an Ironing Board The market once again went nowhere, with the S&P putting in its 34th day without a 1% move. The index finished down -0.01% at 2172.47, and there wasn’t much action in the other indices either. Economic data mostly solid today, with jobless claims and durable goods coming in better-than-expected. The data supports the case for Fed rate hikes. This and all the hawkish chatter sent up regional bank stocks, and pushed gold lower. And in a near-perfect repeat of yesterday, biotech stocks led in the early going before falling hard in the afternoon on pricing controversies. The Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) fell -1.2% to 282.87. 3) Jeff Cooper’s Take on Biotech Here’s what Jeff Cooper had to say about the action in IBB: Yesterday, I mentioned that the fall in the biotechs on the heels of Hilary’s comments reminded me of the pop in the bubble in 2000 on Bill Clinton’s and Tony Blair’s comments on biotech and the genome. A daily IBB chart shows yesterday’s large range outside down day (LROD or Lighting Rod) on a large increase in volume. Yesterday’s lows nominally undercut the prior peaks from the spring and summer and the previous breakout pivot. IBB is in a potentially weak position if today is a Pause Day prior to downside follow-though. P.S. Sign up for one of our FREE trading webinars. US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Advance Goods Trade Balance (Jul): exp. -$63.0b, prior -$63.3b 08:30 Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul P): exp. 0.10%, prior 0.30% 08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ (2Q S): exp. 1.10%, prior 1.20% 08:30 Personal Consumption (2Q S): exp. 4.20%, prior 4.20% 08:30 GDP Price Index (2Q S): exp. 2.20%, prior 2.20% 08:30 Core PCE QoQ (2Q S): exp. 1.70%, prior 1.70% 10:00 Fed Chair Yellen to Speak at Jackson Hole Policy Symposium 10:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment (Aug F): exp. 90.8, prior 90.4 10:00 U. of Mich. Current Conditions (Aug F): prior 106.1 10:00 U. of Mich. Expectations (Aug F): prior 80.3 10:00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation (Aug F): prior 2.50% 10:00 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation (Aug F): prior 2.60% 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (8/26): prior 491 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (8/26): prior 83 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (8/26): prior 406 Global Economics 04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 04:30 GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q 04:30 GBP Prelim. Business Investment q/q All Day Jackson Hole Symposium Earnings Before Open: Big Lots (BIG) After Close: None of significance
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: The Bull Just Keeps on Grindin’
Why are so many traders terrified of forex? This afternoon, my buddy Kurt Capra is hosting a FREE webinar on how you can get started in the lucrative, exciting world of forex. Click here to learn more. 1) Hot Oil! Crude oil was weak in the early going, but shot up intraday after Reuters reported that Iran may support a production freeze at the September OPEC meeting. Oil has been seeing some minor profit-taking on speculation that OPEC may disappoint the market by keeping production unchanged. The push up in oil helped energy stocks outperform, and the S&P Energy ETF (XLE) rose 0.7%. Oil service stocks were also decent, with the Vaneck Vectors Oil Service ETF (OIH) up 0.5%. 2) 31 Days of Nothing We’ve now gone 31 days without 1% move in the S&P 500 as the index continued its slow upward grind with a 0.2% rally to 2186.90. Traders were encouraged by solid European economic data and the aforementioned oil rally. Housing stocks were up big on strong earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL) and impressive US New Home Sales, which are at a multi-year high. Biotechnology and pharmaceutical names also outperformed for the second straight day, and regional banks were up nicely as Treasury yields rose. Gold miners were in the decliners’ column on a slump in gold prices. 3) Second Term Parallels Today, my colleague Jeff Cooper pointed out that the market fell hard at the end of Presidents’ Bill Clinton and George W. Bush’s second terms: The market rallied into September 1, 2000 as Clinton’s second term was coming to a close, and then dropped 41.5% into its November low. The market topped on August 15, 2008 as Bush’s second term was ending, and lost 48.4% going into a November low. Continue reading… P.S. Click here to sign up for our forex event! Wednesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (8/19): prior -4.00% 09:00 House Price Purchase Index QoQ (2Q): prior 1.30% 09:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM (Jun): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.20% 10:00 Existing Home Sales (Jul): exp. 5.51m, prior 5.57m 10:00 Existing Home Sales MoM (Jul): exp. -1.20%, prior 1.10% 10:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (8/19): exp. -850k, prior -2508k 10:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (8/19): exp. -300k, prior -724k 10:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (8/19): exp. -1700k, prior -2724k 10:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (8/19): exp. 500k, prior 1939k 10:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (8/19): exp. -0.55%, prior 1.30% 10:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (8/19): prior 17148 10:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (8/19): prior 10216.4 10:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand (8/19): prior 4754 Global Economics 04:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals Earnings Before Open: Express Inc (EXPR) After Close: GUESS? Inc (GES) HP Inc (HPQ) Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Workday Inc (WDAY)
Continue Reading -->This Is the Most Boring Market Since December 2014
Kick Your Options Trading Up a Notch My buddy Doug Robertson is hosting a FREE options trading webinar this afternoon where he’s teaching his secrets for generating major options profits in volatile markets. Click here for more information 1) The Bank of England Throws Money at the Brexit The Bank of England is afraid of the Brexit, so they’re throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the problem. This morning, the BoE cut rates by 25 bps, expanded its QE program by 60 billion pounds, and started a new 10 billion-pound corporate bond purchase plan. The BoE took a massive hack at its growth forecasts, and now sees 2017 GDP at 0.8% vs. 2.3% previously, the biggest cut in its history. 30-year UK Gilt yields dropped to all-time lows, and European equity markets rebounded intraday. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.6%, while the German DAX was up 0.6%. 2) The Grind Continues Markets have been in a holding pattern over the past few days ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal NFP report, which could move markets in a big way. (more on this below) And the S&P 500’s epic boring sideways grind continued today with the index rising 0.02% to 2164.25. Not 2%, not 0.2%, but 0.02%. So you have some perspective on the action, the index has not made a 1% move since July 8, and market volatility is even lower now than during the April-May snoozefest. In fact, S&P 500 volatility hasn’t been this low since December 2014! Check out this chart of S&P 500 volatility: No wonder we can’t stay awake… Once again, the Russell 2000 showed a smidge of outperformance, though biotech (IBB) cooled off after 2 days of solid action. The Bank of England’s stimulus package pushed up gold and US Treasuries, and crude oil notched a 2.4% gain on what appears to be short covering. Energy stocks were mixed, but high-yield bonds were strong. When crude oil goes up, high-yield energy bonds perform well because default expectations fall. 3) NFP Preview Traders are expecting a 180K increase on nonfarm payrolls with a 4.8% unemployment rate. (see the full consensus estimates below) Last month, we saw a huge 107K beat on the headline number, which just about made up for the 122k miss the month before. Gold and bonds dipped on that report, and then ripped like mad. Equities followed through on the decline in rates with a big 1.5% rally in SPX. At this point, it seems like it may take a big headline number to get traders believing the Fed will hike rates — perhaps 250K or more — and it would also help to have the June number revised up. Click here for my in-depth NFP preview. Friday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Trade Balance (Jun): exp. -$43.0b, prior -$41.1b 08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul): exp. 180k, prior 287k 08:30 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (Jul): prior -6k 08:30 Change in Private Payrolls (Jul): exp. 171k, prior 265k 08:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Jul): exp. 4k, prior 14k 08:30 Unemployment Rate (Jul): exp. 4.80%, prior 4.90% 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jul): exp. 0.20%, prior 0.10% 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jul): exp. 2.60%, prior 2.60% 08:30 Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Jul): exp. 34.4, prior 34.4 08:30 Change in Household Employment (Jul): prior 67 08:30 Labor Force Participation Rate (Jul): prior 62.70% 08:30 Underemployment Rate (Jul): prior 9.60% 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (8/5): prior 463 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (8/5): prior 86 13:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (8/5): prior 374 15:00 Consumer Credit (Jun): exp. $16.000b, prior $18.558b Global Economics 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders m/m 03:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 03:30 GBP Halifax HPI m/m 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI Earnings Before the Open: Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) SouFun Holding (SFUN) After the Close: None of significance
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