Tag Archives for " spy "
Shake-Out Or Correction?
They say the trend is your friend, but is the trend bending? How can one determine the trend? First you have to define trend. Trend is different for every trader. It depends on the time frame they are trading. Then you must know that there are trends running concurrently like a double helix. There are many methods and strategies that market participants use to determine when a pullback is a buying opportunity or a pullback is something more than a pullback. The 3 Day Chart and the 3 Week Chart are two of the best tools I know of to determine the near term trend and the intermediate trend. The 3 Day Chart turns down anytime there are 3 consecutive lower daily lows OR a prior circled 3 Day low is violated (a prior swing low which marked a trough). The 3 Day Chart turns up with 3 consecutive higher highs or on trade above a prior circled 3 Day Chart high. The 3 Week Chart turns down anytime an item shows 3 consecutive lower weekly lows—or on trade below a prior circled 3 week circled high. The 3 Week Chart turns up anytime an item shows 3 consecutive higher weekly highs —or a prior 3 week circled high is cleared. Let’s take a look at an SPX daily from the last major swing low on August 21st. The last time the 3 Week Chart turned down was on the week of August 21. The index set a low at 2417 on an undercut of its 50 day line. The last time the 3 Day Chart turned down was on November 15th. Notice that there was roughly 90 days/degrees between the August low and the November low. The natural 90/180/270 and 360 day/degree divisions of the year are integral to Gann analysis. The November 15th turndown of the 3 Day Chart also was a test of the 50 day moving average. Today the SPX is poised for a possible turndown of its 3 Day Chart if it trades below yesterday’s low. This will trace out 3 consecutive lower daily lows. Importantly, this is occurring as the index satisfies a 90 degree price pullback. From last Friday’s record 2872 high, 90 degrees down is 2818. Notice that despite the selling pressure of the last two days the SPX has held 2818 on a closing basis. It slipped under 2818 yesterday to a low of 2813 but recovered to close at 2823. Importantly, January 31, yesterday, is 90 degrees square the number 2813 on my Square of 9 Wheel. So we have so to speak, a double square-out on the table: The SPX has satisfied a 90 degree price pullback. Yesterday was a possible time/price square-out with 2813 being 90 degrees square of January 31st. It’s still a bull market so these square-outs must be respected. That said the 3 Day Chart has not turned down yet. It could do so today. Trade below Wednesday’s low that that sets a low and turns up either today or Friday suggests a low of some degree. However there are a few caveats that suggests this time is different that November. First of all the index is dealing with a Break Away gap directly off an all time high. It looks like a Gallows Hangman pattern. This suggests last Friday’s rip was a Buying Climax…at least in the short run. Additionally, the SPX is stretched well above its 50 day moving average—a conspicuous difference between the August and November lows. The presumption is that if the SPX turns down its 3 Day Chart and it does not define a low, it’s going lower. The indication is that if 2818 and 2813 fail to act as support, the SPX is headed lower. The conclusion would be that we have a change in character and that rather than a shakeout, a more meaningful correction is playing out. So let’s do the geometry. A 180 degree decline from high is 2766. 360 degrees down is 2662. This would be one full cycle in price down from the 2872 record high. There is some good symmetry to the idea of a decline to around 2662. It represents a 50% retrace of the last leg up (from the August low). It marks a little burst of volatility in early December which was the mid-point of the rally. 2662 also ties to a test/undercut of the 50 day line. Additionally, a decline that flushes the 50 day satisfies a test of a trendline connecting the August low and the November low. The January low is 2682.36. Trade by one tick below that level in February would also satisfy a turn down in the Monthly Swing Chart. If that occurs, bull or bear, the strong likelihood would be for a continuation of the bull or a reaction higher even if a bear market is on the table. The last time the Monthly Swing Chart turned down was in November 2016. It’s stretched. The probabilities are that it will turn down. If it does not do so in February…180 degrees/days from the August low, it may do so in March on trade below whatever the February SPX low is…going into the NINTH anniversary of the March 2009 low. Whenever it turns down, it will be a significant inflection point. Be that as it may, the price action here going into the weekend will tell the tale as to whether we’re in just a short-term shakeout or a more meaningful correction is on the table. Because 2 X the 455 point range of the leg up from August is the range of the 910 point bear market from Oct ’07 to March ’09, the symmetry suggests that the 2872 high (a square-out as January 26 is 180 degrees opposite 2872) may have marked the end of a significant Buying Climax—one which should at least see the deepest correction in the last 14 months. Interestingly, 455 is opposite the date of March 6th…the low
Continue Reading -->Daily Recap: Markets Close at Records
In today’s Daily Recap, Scott Redler talks about the market at all-time highs as we start this holiday shortened week. He spotlights some of the key events that have taken place this year and where things may be headed in the days ahead. Scott also looks at various sectors as well as high beta tech names.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Beta Time!
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler looks at the SPX and how yesterday’s action plays into his overall plan. With the AAPL event today, he also looks at the chart of AAPL and provides some techincal levels to keep an eye on for trading. He also looks at some high beta tech names as well that remain on his radar.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Back From The Beach
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the key levels on the SPX for both support and resistance. He also looked at the charts of USO, AAPL, BABA, TWLO, as well as others.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPY, BABA, GDX
SPY has been choppy but the range is intact. Support is $217.35, then $216.25. Resistance is $218.67, then $219.60ish. Take things slow and don’t overtrade. BABA has digested a nice targeted earnings move for a few weeks. Holding $95.45 would help it get above $96.68 on the way to $99+. GDX already broke the 8/21 day and didn’t respect the 50 that was already lost. Use $25.66 as your pivot. This can see $23-24 on a strong jobs report. Positions disclosure: Scott Redler is long BABA, BABA calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPY, BABA
SPX futures are up 1 point as we lost some momentum last week. SPY gave us a new point of reference at $216.25. A close below there opens the door to $215ish. $218.20ish is resistance. A pop and close above there relieves some pressure. We got bullish on BABA into earnings, playing the stock and buying calls. The earnings gap held $93, which we can trade against. For it to get momentum back, it needs to get and close above $95.50, then $99. P.S. Don’t be afraid of forex… Click here to get a FREE introduction to this exciting market… Positions Disclosure: Scott Redler is long BABA, short SPY
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPY & GDX
Get a Quant Edge in Today’s Markets Tomorrow after the close, Rob Smith is hosting a FREE webinar on his unique Quant Edge Trading Strategy. Read all about it SPX futures are up 1-2 handles in a very choppy lethargic trend to the upside. I would expect more of the same until Friday. We’ll see if we can break above $219.60ish, if all those warnings about a market correction since MAY come to light: Stay tuned. GDX has been the place to be in 2016 with lots of buyable pivots and trends. Recently, it lost momentum when it broke $30.40. A break and close below the 50 day could trigger selling in this crowded trade. P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Rob Smith’s FREE webinar.
Continue Reading -->The Market Is Setting Up a Different Move
Quantitative Analysis is the future of trading. Rob Smith will show you why. Click here for more info. This is the first time we have seen follow-through in the markets in a while. That should be telling and it looks as though we are finally setting up for a pullback. We have entered the August 5 gap and now look set to fill it and some more. A good check back in a healthy market would be to pull back to around the 50 day moving average or around 213 in SPY. Its only a couple of percentage points below here, but picking up that kind of alpha is what I like to do. I am selling down my longs here and looking to buy back lower.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPY and AAPL
Quantitative Analysis is the future of trading. Rob Smith will show you why. Click here for more info. Apple (AAPL) AAPL has given nice opportunities post-earnings. Yesterday, I got out of the stock and turned my calls into spreads. If I see a pullback toward $108.50, I might nibble back on stock and calls. Bigger support is $107.50. SPY Yesterday, SPY broke the 8 day again. Now we’ll see what’s next. 21-day support is closer to $216.80ish. Disclosure: Position in AAPL call spreads
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: (Un)Lucky 13
1) (Un)Lucky 13 Most would say thirteen is an unlucky number. Maybe this time around it will prove to be lucky. The S&P 500 was sideways for the thirteenth (13) straight session closing, down .11%. Most of the weight was caused by weakness in energy as the Energy Select Sector (XLE) was down just over 3%. Weakness in oil was the major reason for energy names being down. Read the Oil Update below, by Jeff Cooper for additional thoughts. We continued to see the Nasdaq outperform as it was able to ride the strength of theNasdaq Biotech. Index (IBB), which closed up 1.29%, to a .47% gain. Apple (AAPL) and Netflix (NFLX) were also up big today, gaining 1.80% and 3.56% respectively. 20 Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) were also down sharply, losing 1.49% 2) Oil Update Today, our friend Jeff Cooper is back to weigh in on oil: Oil bounced off its 200 day m.a. on Friday and judging by the outsized moves on many names in the sector such as CLR (flagged in this morning’s report as vulnerable) and CXO which left large range outside up days (to mention a few), it looks like many players suspected oil was going to make a V Bottom at its 200 day. However oil is right back down today despite a retreat in the dollar and it looks like our 38/39 square-out level is magnetizing oil lower—assuming this is part of a constructive pullback if that level holds. Today’s downdraft in many energy names following Friday’s sharp turnup puts the possibility of a Hook, Line & Sinker bearish pattern short term on the table. So we could see some fast, climactic action in coming sessions in the group especially if oil snaps 40 which was a key level on the way down early this year. 3) Who Says to Sell In May? The one and only Scott Redler lends his insight into how to navigate this market: Those who said, “sell in May and go away” didn’t do so well. Now a lot of people are saying to sell in August. Before we just go off following the crowd, let’s go step by step. The 8 day moving average is $216.54- if you are micro trader, you get out with a close below that. If you are more of a swing trader, use $215.30.Otherwise, stay the course. We have pivot resistance at $217.54. A trade and close above that, look for continuation towards $220, or a big Red Dog Reversal (RDR) with that pivot to give a clue. We’ll also want to see oil hold last week’s low.
Continue Reading -->