Tag Archives for " trading "
T3’s Take 3: Yellen Goes Hawk, Spikes the Dollar
1) Yellen Goes Full Hawk Today, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave a speech at the Commonwealth Club in San Franscisco, and she swung her hawk hammer. Yellen said the Fed is close to meeting its dual mandate of full employment and price stability, and that Fed officials expect a few rate hikes this year. The US dollar immediately ripped on the news, gaining 1.7% against the yen and 0.7% against the euro. The dollar in strength put a hurting on gold, which fell -0.7%. The ever-volatile gold miners ETF(GDX) dropped -1.5%. 2) Stocks Bounce Yellen’s hawkiskhness drove a rebound in stocks, and the S&P 500 managed to squeeze up 0.2% to 2271.89. That’s not exactly exciting, but there were some signs of strength under the hood. The Russell 2000 rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) rose 0.8%. Yellen’s hawk talk drove the S&P Financials ETF (XLF) up 0.8%, with Regional Banks (KRE) up 1.1%. Retail, energy, and US Treasuries led the decliners’ column today. After the close today, Netflix (NFLX) reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings and surged over $10. 3) Jeff Cooper on Gold This afternoon, T3 Live’s Jeff Cooper issued the following analysis of gold: Yesterday, GLD gapped up into a shelf of resistance from the spring of 2016 around 115. Today, after treading water in the early going, the bears came out to play. GLD is pulling back into the gap window from yesterday. GLD and the miners have done a lot of work and are entitled to inhale. However, GLD is doing something it hasn’t done for many moon: GLD has delivered a Golden Cross with the 50 week crossing above the 200. Click here to learn more about Jeff Cooper’s Daily Market Report.
Continue Reading -->Daily Recap: The Last Mile is the Hardest
In today’s Daily Recap, Scott Redler and special guest Lulu take a look at the action today which may have caught some by surprise. He also talks about how he navigated today in light of coming into today mostly long.
Continue Reading -->Chart Attack: SPX, FAS, AMZN and ACIA
Once again, quiet markets as we have 3 days left in 2016. This is a nice upper flag type pattern that usually leads to positive resolution. You can be long vs. 2256 or 2248 and, if you are quick, perhaps add above 2273 for a move to all-time highs at 2277. We’ll see if there is enough juice this week, or does it need new January 2017 flows to ignite it. Either way, a nice tight pattern to trade verse. Banks have been the best sector with multiple set ups along the way. Some are alread in the FAS vs. $41. If you think we get DOW 20,000 this can probably be a grab when it clears $42.25 for a move to clear highs of $42.83. Use Goldman Sachs (GS) as an indicator. AMZN has been consolidating since missing last quarters earnings. This pattern is tight. With the best selling holiday product and a huge online retail season electronically, I think this wedge resolves upwards. I am long and looking to add with a high volume move above $774.70 for a quick move towards $780 then to fill the gap up to $820. ACIA, last years high flyer, was cut in half. Two sell signals helped us get out of the way. Now, it’s tight and could see a January effect type move. It will need a high volume move above $68.30 to help trigger a day 1. I am long small and looking to add if it triggers and holds. The first target is $72 which is the 50 day.
Continue Reading -->14.4% of Traders Say Trump Slays the Bull
Over the weekend, we sent a survey to the T3 Live community to get their thoughts on pressing market issues like the Fed, gold, and what they think could take this market down. If you’d like to participate in our next trader survey, sign up for this week’s forex webinar via this link: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10668137 Before I get started, let me point out the obvious: these survey results only represent a portion of the T3 Live trading community — NOT traders or investors as a whole. Still, I think you’ll find them interesting… especially when it comes to what traders think will destroy the bull market. So let’s go through our questions one by one: 1 ) The S&P 500 closed at 2164 on Friday. Will it make a new all-time high above 2193 before 2017? 81.3% of survey participants said the S&P will make new all-time highs before year-end. This was a pretty big surprise to me, given that broader market sentiment is fairly bearish. Then again, we’re less than 2% from a new record above 2193. 2) Gold fell 3.3% to $1225 on Friday. What will it hit first – $1200 or $1250? 58.7% said that Gold would hit $1,200 first, and so far they’re right. Gold is ticking lower today, and the downtrend isn’t showing signs of stopping. 3) Will the Fed raise interest rates in December? 74.3% of surveyed traders believe the Fed will hike in December. The CME’s FedWatch Tool currently shows an 85.8% probability of a December rate hike. That’s not terribly far off. 4) Are traders too bullish or too bearish right now? 34.3% of respondents believe traders are too bullish. 19.3% believe traders are too bearish. And 46.4% think trader sentiment is just about right. Next time around, I’ll simplify this with just two choices — too bullish or too bearish. 5) Which sectors will perform best into year-end? The banks and biotechs have been ripping since Donald Trump’s US Presidental election victory, and our survey indicates that traders expect more of the same. A whopping 51.4% believe financials will lead into-year end. In second place was health care & biotechnology at 26.1%. Technology has been lagging, and just 5.8% of traders think it will lead into year-end. 6) Which area of the market will perform worst into year-end? On the flip side, traders expect bonds to lead the decliners’ column. 31.2% of respondents said bonds will perform worst into year-end with gold in second place at 16.7% 7) What single factor is most likely to break the bull market? Please be as detailed as you’d like. This question was an open-ended question designed to determine whether traders believe Donald Trump will disrupt the bull market. I wanted to see how many traders would offer up Trump without being prompted first. 14.4% of traders cited Trump as the single factor most likely to break the bull market. Meanwhile 15.6% of traders believe the Fed or monetary policy will be the culprit. 13.3% cited terror attacks or other negative geopolitical events. Here are some of the more interesting responses to this question: (I made minor edits for clarity) “The alt right and rising nationalism around the world.” “Too much too fast based on nothing new. The market is overbought and tech is selling off based on assumptions that Trump will go after them. If they really think he will and put taxes on imports, the companies will get ready for bad times which result in high unemployment.” “Interest rates going too high too fast because President-elect Trump has huge fiscal package that will require massive debt via bonds.” “Negative world event such as significant terror attack on or around inauguration.” “Debt will be a big drag on companies bottom line and government debt is unsustainable. So governments and Central Banks should continue to print and go nuclear on interest rates to try and finance that debt. Banks will then put that money to work by sticking most of it in the stock markets. There will be a big tug of war between inflation and deflation over the next couple years. Want to participate in our next trader survey? If so, sign up for this week’s forex webinar via this link: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10668137 We’ll add you to the list!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: America Speaks
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the impact of Donald Trump being elected the next President of the United States of America. Scott talks about where the markets were at the lowest point, overnight, and where it is looking to open. He helps put things in perspective and provides a roadmap to navigate today’s open. Scott also discusses the reaction in biotech land and gold.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Election Day
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about how today’s election may impact the markets both today and tomorrow. Scott reviews the technical picture over the last week to week and half and what it suggests for price moving forward. He also shows the support and resistance levels to be watching. How to Thrive in the Future of Trading Want to go Quant without a PhD? Check out our latest live event here: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10626572
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Pre-election Oversold Bounce?
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about what has happen overseas and how that impacts the U.S. Markets. He also discusses the Facebook (FB) earnings and how it is acting pre-market. Scott also looks at other high beta tech name along with GLD.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Connecting The Election Correction Technically
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler discusses the Fed day today and the likelihood that it is a non-event as the U.S. Presidential Election has taken center stage. He reviews the action in the SPX given the sell-off yesterday and updates the new levels of support and resistance. Scott also looks at the bounce that took place in the Biotech (IBB) and a couple high beta tech names.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Ranges and Noise
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler puts all this sideways action into perspective by looking at the longer term SPX chart. He then takes a look into the recent daily action, which has been choppy, to say the least. Scott notes that it is likely to stay this way until after the election. He also looks at some recent earnings names as well as FB which will report tomorrow.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Pressure Mix
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the headwinds that the market is facing this morning. Specifically AAPL, now with earnings behind it and the levels that is has trading pre-market. He also talks about the levels he will be watching to trade around. Scott also reviews other high beta tech names as well as the recent action in Oil.
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