I like TSLA, the car.
The stock makes no sense to me.
They are losing $13,000 a car.
They are burning through $500,000 a month.
Remember over a year ago when Elon Musk was pooh-poohing the price of his own stock?
Was that a ruse?
But I have enough sense to have known not to short it.
Yet.
Trying to analyze the company is like going down the rabbit hole.
But I'm not an analyst. I analyze patterns of accumulation and distribution and sentiment.
Be that as it may don't think I've ever seen such staunch battle lines between bulls and bears in a name.
The sparks, verbal and otherwise, from the bull/bear debate fave created much confusion of late with some big names like Einhorn entering the fray forcing managers at funds who are long to justify why they are long.
Typically, saying one is long because the trend is up doesn't wash at these committee meetings.
TSLA epitomizes the idea that it's seldom a bull market in logic on Wall Street.
It also epitomizes the idea of the cult of celebrity.
America loves a celebrity.
As Warhol said everyone gets their 15 mins.
On Wall Street, every celebrity CEO gets their cycle.
Is Musk too wrapped up in his own celebrity?
As a friend and fellow trader puts it ” Musk is the fine line between madness and genius embodied in one man.
For investors, genius is closing in on madness.”
As Ken Rostron, a friend and brilliant market operator says, Ivan Musk may be the offspring of Ivar Krueger and Buzz Lightyear.
Ivar Krueger was the Match King. The greatest swindler the world has ever seen.
The bulls think Elon is Buzz…to infinity and beyond.
The bears think he's Ivar.
By what metric do you measure a stock with no earnings?
A story stock can go to the moon. And often they do.
When you couple the cult of celebrity with Musk's tag as a visionary, you get a stock that defies gravity.
Technically TSLA is benefitting from TWO Rule of 4 Breakout's as shown above.
A Measured Move would be satisfied on a push to 351.
On the Square of 9, 90 degrees down from the recent 328 high ties to 310.
180 degrees down ties to 292.
TSLA hit 291 today.
Often breakouts are followed by a test of the breakout pivot.
290 roughly ties to a backtest or checkback of TSLA's recent breakout.
TSLA's pullback is occurring 180 days/degrees from the November low…just as the SPX's Slim Jim is playing out from this 180 day/degree move from the election.
As the embodiment of speculative sentiment in this cycle, it will be important to observe TSLA's action as it tests its breakout.
the main point we differ on would be the profit per car. You case -13,000. according to financial statements they are making about 25% gross profit, and the CEO thinks long term they will have a gross profit of about 40%-50% like Porsche. My overly simplified estimate the profits aren’t reflected in income statement b/c Tesla organization making heavy investments and doesn’t want to pay taxes.
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