Joe Rogan and the AI Curse
The AI trade feels cursed.
And we can blame Joe Rogan. Just a little bit.
1. Joe Rogan and the Magazine Cover Indicator 2.0
AI stocks act like trash.
Exactly when we see Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang appearing on the Joe Rogan Experience:
And Time Magazine naming “the Architects of AI” like OpenAI's Sam Altman Person of the Year:
The magazine cover indicator says that major magazine cover stories sometimes mark tops or bottoms.
Emphasis on sometimes because this is pure anecdote.
The best known example is BusinessWeek's “Death of Equities” cover back in 1979.
Now AI stocks are getting trashed precisely when there's wide mainstream celebration of industry leaders like Jensen Huang.
And yes folks, the Joe Rogan Experience is the #1 podcast on Earth, which makes it mainstream media:
2. Oracle Is a Mess
On November 7, I said Oracle has the ugliest chart in the world.
It's getting uglier.
The stock gapped down Thursday after a revenue miss.
And it came under more pressure Friday on a Bloomberg report that it's pushing back completion dates for some of its AI data centers to 2028 from 2027.
Who are those data centers allegedly for?
OpenAI.
Which accounts for $300 billion of Oracle's customer commitments.
And which recently declared a “code red” to counter Google's Gemini 3 AI model.
So the market doubts Oracle can service its growing debt load and hit its long-term growth targets.
Result: the stock is down 45% from its September high.
And Oracle's not alone in what feels like a cursed sector:
3. Broadcom Got Decimated
Broadcom (AVGO) delivered its 23rd straight earnings beat on Thursday.
And the stock's down over 10% Friday because guidance was strong – but not strong enough.
Kudos to JR Romero, who screamed sell at $413 on Wednesday:
Remember, Nvidia's (NVDA) November earnings report was impressive, no doubt. But that stock's been stuck in the mud.
So when you add this all up, the AI trade is in Season 1 Tony Soprano mode:
“It's good to be in something from the ground floor. I came too late for that and I know. But lately, I'm getting the feeling that I came in at the end. The best is over.”
In AI, the “Fear Of Missing Out” is dead.
The dominant theme is now “The Fear I'm the Last Sucker In.”
Industry fundamentals appear strong.
But the stocks act like things are about to fall apart.
4. This Valuation Statistic Is Hilarious
If AI is supposed to be the next big thing… why is Costco (COST) a more expensive stock than Nvidia (NVDA)?
Costco is trading at 42.8 times earnings and Nvidia's at 25.5. Even though Nvidia is growing 6 times faster.
The market is treating Costco as a pillar of stability, which makes sense.
And it's treating Nvidia as a risky cyclical.
By the way, could AI stocks have bottomed right when I wrote this article?
Stranger things have happened.
5. IWM's Comeback Has Been Amazing
Small caps lagged for years… but they're catching up.
As the Fed's cut rates and became more dovish, IWM has almost caught up to SPY.
They're just about neck and neck in 2025:
Now let's turn the clock back 10 years.
IWM has a TON of room to play catch-up if this trend is to continue.
SPY has outperformed it by almost double:
6. The Rate Cut Picture
Since the Fed just cut rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, let's take a look at the next FOMC meeting in January.
The market is pricing in a mere 22% chance of a rate cut in January:
The market is pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, while the Fed itself expects one.
The deciding factor may be who President Trump names as Fed Chair and Vice Chair next year.
The President has been vocal in calling for lower rates, so odds are he's looking for the biggest dove possible.
Note that even if Jerome Powell exits the chairman's throne, he may remain a governor on the Board.
7. Investors Are Bullish
The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.6% of investors are bullish:
This is the second straight week of above-average bullishness.
And it makes sense considering how fast we came off the November 21 lows.
Meanwhile, the VIX remains at historically low levels, which is normal for a tight bull market like the current one.
8. Crypto Is The Worst Sector of 2025
We took a look at our handy dandy ETF tracker:
It's quite odd that Bitcoin and Ethereum are down while rates are falling, and while risky stock sectors like semiconductors and biotech are up like mad.
And interestingly, the falloff only happened after the crypto peak in October:
Could this be a dark harbinger for risk assets?
Time will tell.
9. The Slop Bowl Stocks Are Back
We've talked quite a bit about the “Slop Bowl Bear Market.”
But these stocks are rocking December:
Sweetgreen (SG) is up 40.8% this month and Chipotle (CMG) and Cava (CAVA) are coming back fast.
These could be classic January effect plays, rallying in anticipation of the end of tax loss selling.
Could Starbucks (SBUX) be next to go?
It's kinda sorta in the same family of “basic luxury” stocks.
10. One Bull's Case
JR Romero remains bullish on the market and predicts the SPX will hit 7200 before year-end.
Here's a look back from two weeks ago, when he reminded us there was no real bear case: