The SpaceX IPO Was Boring?
We'll skip the preambles this week. You know what you want to hear about:
1. SpaceX IPO = Boring?
The SpaceX (SPCX) IPO is a hit.
The deal priced at $135, and the stock opened at $150 before hitting $176+.
That was a sizable move, but it felt rather almost too orderly.
Just boring.
I expected more back-and-forth violence because of the crazy day-one action in Cerebras (CBRS) in May, along with the presence of Elon Musk cultists, and the huge valuation assigned to SpaceX.
It felt combustible.
But as of 1:25 pm ET Friday, this feels like an anticlimax in terms of volatility.
It's downright boring.
I picked up a whopping 10 shares of SpaceX at the offering, so I'm not complaining.
Every tick higher is good for me.
Now it will be interesting to see if Elon's true believers stick with the stock and hold it up.
You can get our team's full reaction to the IPO here:
2. SpaceX Sets a Hilarious New Mark for Leveraged ETFs
This morning, Defiance ETFs relaunched their Defiance Daily 2X Space ETF (SPCL), saying this:
“Effective June 12, 2026, all or a predominant portion of SPCL’s Target Portfolio consists of exposure to SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX), making SPCL the world’s first and only ETF to have 2X exposure to SpaceX on IPO day. The fund’s SpaceX exposure was established at the $135 IPO price.”
So we got a leveraged SpaceX ETF the same day as the IPO. And it was trading before SpaceX opened at 11:46 am ET.
Based on the Defiance website, it looks like the SPCL ETF went to cash before buying 52,888 shares of SpaceX at the $135 IPO price.
That's why SPCL has a trading history.
And it had a notable price and volume explosion today:
It traded just 49K shares Thursday, but was at 941K on Friday as of 1:42 pm ET.
However, “normal” SpaceX leveraged ETFs will hit the market soon after the SEC delayed listings to avoid mucking up the IPO.
3. SanDisk Refuses to Stop
On May 29, JR Romero predicted SanDisk (SNDK) hitting $2,000.
And it crossed that mark today.
Close enough for government work?
The stock is now up 717% year-to-date, making it the #1 stock in the S&P 500 by a long shot.
The #2 name Micron (MU) is up “only” 249%:
And as you can see, the leaderboard is dominated by semiconductors and tech hardware names.
Because it feels like there is near-unlimited demand for AI hardware, based on recent news like:
- Oracle (ORCL) raising $40 billion to help fund its AI buildout
- Alphabet (GOOGL) selling $80 billion in equity to expland AI infrastructure
Super Micro (SMCI) raising $7 billion to buy components to fill new $39 billion in AI server orders
And a lot of this money is going towards flash memory, DRAM, hard drives, processors, and all the other stuff that powers AI.
4. Higher Rates?
The ECB raised rates on Wednesday and traders are thinking the US will follow suit following the hot CPI and PPI reports.
The market is now pricing in a mere 39.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged for the rest of 2026. This is down from 61.8% a month ago.
And now the following rate hike odds are being priced in:
+25 bps: 41.0%
+50 bps: 15.1%
+75 bps: 2.1%
+100 bps: 0.1%
So in total:
Traders are pricing in a 58.3% chance of higher rates by year-end.
Remember when we debated how many cuts we'd get?
Of course, next week we get the first FOMC announcement and press conference from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
It will be interesting to see what tone he sets to kick off his term.
And if he'll signal he will go along with President Trump's wish for lower rates.
5. Sentiment Is Bearish?
The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 30.4% of investors are bullish.
This is the lowest reading since March 18, when the S&P 500 closed at 6224.
It's also the fourth straight week of below-average bullishness.
AAII says the #1 concern is “the economy and/or inflation.” That makes sense given this week's hot CPI report, plus ongoing concerns about AI taking jobs.
Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at just 33, squarely in the “Fear” category.
So the decline from the early June highs has taken a clear toll on the mood.
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