All posts by Scott Redler
5 Tech Stocks on My Radar
We have mixed markets around the world as we see if regions can find footing after Friday’s post-NFP bearish reversal. Some are asking if we will test the June low in the next 4-6 weeks? Can we break those lows? Or was last Thursday the low? These are all valid questions but we have to take things day-by-day within the context of what we can handle and what time frame we’re on. SPX futures are +23. If the candle from Friday wants to lead to more downside, then sellers must reject price in the 3954-3969 area. If the buyers want to push back a bit, they must reclaim that area to build a lower area to trade against. To see the lows of the year, we need to get and stay below 3903 first. So that’s the support pivot. The longer we stay below 4018, the higher the probability that happens. Now let’s dig into some important tech names: META tried to get out of the danger zone on SNAP’s news but strength got sold again into the $167 area. If it breaks and stays below $154-$155 in the days ahead, it would bring out sellers in most risk assets. It needs to bounce fast to get out of the danger zone. NFLX went from $216 to hit a high of $251+ post-earnings with lots of pivots to play for cash flow. Most sold into strength or used $241 as a stop. $233 is resistance. $218.74 is big support now. MSFT isn’t helping the tape. It broke its ascending channel on 8/19. It made a low of $254 last week. See if that tries to hold. If not, it won’t be good for tech. $264ish is resistance. NVDA was the first big name to make lower lows in a while. It hasn’t bounced much since then. Look here for some sentiment clues. The longer it stays below the $143 area, the higher the probability for lower lows. $132.70 is last week’s low. AMD broke its symmetrical triangle to the downside around $96ish. It got hit with NVDA but didn’t make new lows on the year. Watch it for sentiment. Does it catch up to the downside or diverge a bit? $78.52 is last week’s low. If that breaks this week, it will be bad for tech and sentiment. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure
Continue Reading -->6 Tech Names You Should Watch Today
We have mostly red arrows around the world as central banks remain hawkish in a tough fight against inflation. Powell’s remarks at Jackson hole saying it will take some pain and sacrifice brought out sellers. The SPX sliced below 4144 and 4120 to make a low of 4056. This morning it’s getting some downside follow-through. I’d think 3980-3990 holds (around the 50 day) if we get there. I’d use 5-15-30 minute lows to buy against for tactical cash flow. Pressing the morning could be tough with the Oscillator -60. AAPL did a Red Dog Reversal sell Friday around $170.14 to get some out and it hit a low of $163.56. $159ish is gap support below to measure. Or use a 5-15-30 minute low. Watch this for clues for today. MSFT hit a high of $294 and then stopped most out around $289 when the accelerated trend broke. On Friday it hit a low of $267.98. I’d cover some. Maybe there’s a trade vs. a 5-15-30 minute low if this market wants to find some footing today. AMZN stopped most out around $140.78 Now it’s just a tactical trade.See if there’s a 5-15-30 minute low to trade against. It’s in the post-earnings gap that is open down to the $123 area. GOOGL broke its ascending channel to stop most out around $119ish. It did lag on that June bounce. It made a low of $110.19 Friday. Maybe there’s a trade vs. the $108 area. META is still very challenged and might make new lows. $154 is a big area. $159.77 is micro support. NFLX had a great post-earnings sequence from $216 to hit a high of $251+ with lots of pivots to play for cash flow. Most sold into strength or used $241 as a stop. On Friday it did a Red Dog Reversal around the $234 pivot and hit a low of $223. $217ish is pretty big support. We’ll be tactical here. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure
Continue Reading -->5 Risky Names I’m Watching
SPX futures are -25 after hitting a high of 4280 Friday. This active sequence has paid traders to buy dips and rotate between sectors. There’s been a ton of participation. SPX took back over half of the corrective phase which was impressive. Today, we’ll see how we digest. The Oscillator hit +59 (overbought is +40). I’d think 4200-4220 holds this week if they want to keep this active sequence intact. Now let’s dig into some of the more speculative names on my radar: GOEV has a decent lower-level chart pattern. Some of these types of names are working. I bought some Friday. It needs to hold $3.90. Above $4.30 and I may add. DNA: I bought some last week and trimmed into the ramp-up. It needs to hold $3.20 PETZ had a few volume spikes. It needs to hold $2.40. See if it clears $3.17 on volume. GROV: I bought some vs. the $4.60 area. Watch here for a volume spike. BLUE was great from the $4.75 area to $7 Friday. I’m smaller but staying with it for now. Scott’s Positions Disclosure
Continue Reading -->5 Big Tech Names You Need to Watch
We have mixed markets around the world with an upbeat feel. Europe has green arrows and Asia is a bit muted. Last Friday, the markets took the hot jobs report in stride as SPX held 4107. Lots of sectors acted well to extend the active sequence intact from the June lows. We have the CPI on Wednesday. Stay nimble, take trades, and try not to get caught up in opinions. You need to avoid revenge trading and pain trades. 4167 is last week’s high. I don’t think we’ll hit new highs this year, but 4220 can happen in the weeks ahead. We’ll go day-by-day to measure the action. Now let’s go through 5 big names we should all be watching: TSLA went from $760 to $940 the past few weeks. Many traders got stopped out as it broke $915 to see a low of $856. We’ll see if the early strength holds today. I’d approach it slowly. AAPL led the move off the June lows to see a high of $166.59. It held in pretty well Friday, giving us the $163 area to trade against. I wouldn’t chase this open, that but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy short. MSFT was a great trade from $260 to $283+. I sold mine. It acted fine Friday and some bought the dip. Today it’s above $283.80. I’d trim into strength and buy dips. GOOGL lags a bit but I bought some calls early last week and some stock in case it wants to play catchup. It needs to hold $116. A strong move on volume above $118.78 and $119.69 will open the door for higher prices. META held $154-$155 and got out of the danger zone as it cleared $165 to see $172.50+. I put on a call spread for this Friday. We’ll see if it tries to play catch-up. It needs to clear $172 with power for that. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->5 Big Earnings Reports You need to Watch
SPX futures are +20 because there’s some optimism around China’s launch of a $44B real estate fund to help work through the Debt crunch. In Europe, the resumption of the Nord Stream gas flows is a small positive. After a 10%ish move off the lows, some are asking if SPX 4000 was the high of this bear market bounce? SPX holding the 50 day of 3900ish will keep some active bulls optimistic that we can see 4073 or the 200 day above. Now let’s dig into this week’s big earnings names: GOOGL reports Tuesday and SNAP’s Numbers have many concerned here. It’s lagged this past month. It usually leads. $101-$106.50 is key support. Tuesday’s earnings reaction will be important. MSFT lagged and underperformed this recent bounce with some erratic action. On Friday it hit $265ish and was sold. I wouldn’t chase this up move but I’d watch it. Earnings are Tuesday. META also got hit on SNAP’s results. This stock has been in a bear trend for most of the year. The question is whether it will bounce like NFLX or get hit like SNAP. $154-$159 is a key support area. Earnings are Wednesday. It’s up 80 cents this morning. See if it holds or fades. $168.41 is Friday’s low. AMZN had a nice weekly move to see a high of $125.50 Friday into some key resistance. Earnings aren’t until Thursday. We’ll see where it is then. Expectations have been brought down but it’s 20% off the recent lows. See if early strength holds or fades. Friday’s low is $121.35. AAPL led this tape and expectations are high heading into earnings Thursday. On Friday, It hit $156+ before pulling back a little. See if early strength holds or fades today. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->Elon Musk Dumped Twitter. Should You Buy?
We have mostly red arrows to start the week on negative pandemic news out of China. Macau is shutting down many businesses including casinos. The Shanghai is -1.2% with the Hang Seng -2.7%. SPX futures are -24 and we’ll see if there’s any commitment to last week’s rally as we wait for Wednesday’s CPI and then bank earnings at the end of the week. Now let’s dig into some big social media and tech names: TWTR: I’m glad I got out at $52+ when the deal was announced. I haven’t played it since then. It would be cute if it opened lower and went green. $35ish is a spot to watch. If I played it, I’d use a 5-15-30 minute low to trade against. Be very careful. SNAP was a decent tactical buy last week. I still have some left. It needs to hold $14ish. We’ll see how it responds to the Elon Musk news. TSLA: some think it should have been up more on the TWTR news. We’ll see what happens for sentiment today. See if it stays green or if sellers get more comfortable. $723 is key support. A move above $764 opens the door for higher prices META was cut to underperform by Needham. If it can’t reclaim the $167 area, it can roll back over. This has been a problem stock all year. AMZN participated last week and seems to be getting tighter. If it can hold $113ish, it looks like it can clear $117. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->5 Big Tech Names I’m Watching
We’ll see if we retest or break the SPX 3619 low. And if it breaks, what’s the next level below? Those are questions I’m asking. We will go day by day, week by week, and month by month to find opportunities on all time frames. The euro is making new 20-year lows vs. the US dollar, which is pressuring Europe and the overall tape. We’ll see if SPX can hold 3738 and go green. We’ll also see if energy names hold in, or if they topped with oil. The FOMC minutes are Wednesday and the jobs numbers hit Friday. Now let’s dig into 5 big tech names I’m watching: AAPL isn’t special but it’s been decent to trade the past two weeks. Foxconn came out with some positive statements. Maybe AAPL worlds today. It needs to hold $135.60. If it gets and stays below that, it will hurt sentiment and will give clues of more downside. TSLA will be important today. The deliveries weren’t worse than expected, but also weren’t great. The stock hasn’t been special since April. See if it holds the $667 area and goes green, or if it gets sold. Clearing $690 will help tech. AMZN is a concern with all the retail problems. It went green first Friday. Maybe it goes today vs. $105.85. If it can’t hold that, then $101 is the hey macro spot into earnings season in a few weeks. GOOGL splits July 15. It broke $2303 to stop some out. See if it can hold the $2132 pivot. Otherwise the door opens the door for lower prices and negates the right shoulder. META led the market lower this year. Last week Zuckerberg said things were slowing down faster than he ever saw. On Friday, it didn’t make a lower low so we’ll see how it handles $154-$155 for clues on sentiment. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->4 ETF’s I’m Watching Right Now
We have mostly green arrows around the world to extend last week’s gains. There’s not much out of the G7. China declared victory on the pandemic as the region keeps outperforming. There could be a ceasefire in Ukraine as Russia takes more territory. SPX futures are +16 giving upside follow-through to last week’s strength. The Oscillator is probably +60, making new buys tricky. But maybe the markets want to test the 50 day above into quarter-end. Big resistance is in the 3974-4020 area. Now let’s dig into some of the ETF’s I’m watching right now: Tech led last week, giving clues we can have an oversold bounce with some power. The QQQ’s filled one gap and are already near the second. Friday’s high is $295.04. We’ll see if it wants to fill the second gap above at $299. XBI was a great vehicle last week as it finally showed relative strength and hit a high of $77.65. I sold mine Friday, but I’m looking to buy it back. We’ll see what type of digestion we get here. ARKK didn’t lead the markets to new lows the week of June 14, which signaled it could outperform. It hit high of $45.98 Friday. With a little digestion, this can see $54ish if this market rallies into quarter-end. XLE gave ways to sell as it lost special status. There was the break below $91.71 and then it lost the 8/21 day. Then there was a correction to the 200 day with a low of $69.47 last week. If it tries to bounce, there will be resistance in the $74-$77 area. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->Watch the 2022 Lows – They Are Everything
SPX futures are -90 handles. On Thursday, the index broke 4073 which meant risk-off and time to get short. Friday gave downside follow-through with a low of 3900. We’ll see if the 2022 low of 3810 tries to hold at first kiss into the Fed Wednesday. This is Day #3 down and the oscillator will be at -60 so it’s hard to press shorts in the morning. For tactical buys, I’d use 5-15-30 minute lows with signals. I’ll focus on SPY, QQQ, AAPL, AMD, and TSLA. I’m glad we’ve prioritized cash and taken risk down this year. We’ll stay prepared and try and net money short-term. Longer-term, there will be other opportunities. TSLA lost special status months ago. Last week it did a Red Dog Reversal sell around the $749 pivot and hit a low of $683 Friday. It announced a 3 for 1 stock split. That wasn’t new news though. I kept some from buying it Friday. We’ll see if it shows some relative strength for a cash flow long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $655 is support. The 2022 low is $620.57 and is very important. There might be an opportunity there but chances are the stock goes lower this summer. AMZN gave many a 25% move off the lows heading into the split. Then it gave a sell signal when it broke above $125.61 and failed. Some got short as it lost the $120.63 area. I’d cover some this morning. We’ll see how it handles the $101.26 2022 low. I’ve avoided it the past few days. I will look for a signal today. AMD got us out around $102 when it showed it’s not special in a weak market. See how it handles the $89 area, or if there’s a trade vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. META broke $194 with force to get some out of leftover longs and other short. I’ve avoided it. $169 is the 2022 low of the year to watch today. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: FAANG Friday
SPX futures are +45. Elon Musk walked back his statements from Friday, and Lloyd Blankfein said to not be too pessimistic. Even with a lot of complicated news, the SPX digested pretty well above the 8/21 day to stay committed to this bear market rally. Now we’ll see if it builds and gives another move to 4250-4300 in the week ahead. 4176 is last week’s high. As long as we hold 4073, we can’t bet too bearish. TSLA: Elon Musk is walking back Friday’s statements about cutting the workforce. The stock isn’t special and it’s been hard to trust lately. We’ll see if early strength gets faded. The resistance area is $731-$743. AAPL: Morgan Stanley’s Katie Huberty was cautious Friday and it showed some relative weakness. Today, see if the $147-$148 area gets rejected. WWDC kicks off today at 1:00. AMZN: call spreads did great into the split. I made ~200% on the one that expired Friday. It’s up this morning. Some are long vs. $120. Others are waiting for a push and close above $125.61 that might lead to a gap fill. Watch it for sentiment. FB was volatile last week on Sheryl Sandberg leaving. But it didn’t fall apart. See if the rally holds. It’s getting tighter. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
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