All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Market Moves in Banks and ETFs
Last Friday, the SPX hit 4546. Moves like that are why we focus on price and patterns instead of opinions. SPX futures are flattish and we’ll see if we can hold above 4455-4500 to keep this active sequence intact to continue towards 4600.Small caps are trying to keep this active sequence intact. If IWM can hold $203.75, it stays constructive to clear $207.44 for a move up to the $212 area. ARRK gave a nice bounce off drastic oversold levels. It hit a high of $68+ where many sold. As long as this holds $62-$64, some will stay for a move towards the $78 area. The banks have been impressive and working higher. XLF needs to hold the $38ish level, though you still need the right entries and exits. XLE is still leading. It woke up Friday again after holding the 8 day. I’d keep buying dips if that continues. Now we can give it to the $76.50 area.Positions Disclosure as of 3/28/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Big Week for FAANG
SPX futures are flattish. A little digestive action above 4400-4420 would be impressive and constructive. If it gets and stays above 4465, there’s really no resistance up to 4600 so take care if you’re extra hedged.TSLA had an awesome week. I bought some Tuesday below $800 and traders added above the $842 downtrend line. I sold mine Friday as it hit $907. I was hoping for a pullback to buy. It’s up again this morning. I’d think $935-$940 will be resistance if it sees it today. I’d be careful buying now. AMZN gave us a really big week. I had a nice call spread, sold puts, and held the stock. I sold stock Friday when it hit $3231. I’d like a dip to buy, might not get it. I sold a little premium higher for this Friday. $3350 should be a big resistance level above. AAPL reclaimed $152 and the 200 day fast and participated in the action last week. I got caught a little short Friday for the imbalance which didn’t work. I’ll adjust today for that. $164.48 is pivot resistance. MSFT didn’t lead last week but it participated. Now see if it plays some catch-up. It has room to the $304 area if it wants it.Positions Disclosure as of 3/21/2022 at 8:43 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Managing Big Metal Moves
SPX futures are +17 after closing on the lows Friday as the misdirection continues. We have the Fed Wednesday. We’re trying to figure out if SPX 4111-4222 holds and if oil put in its highs of the year. SPX pivot resistance is 4250, then 4299. The longer we stay below that, the more control the active bears can have. Tech still feels challenged. I’d watch 2022 lows in key names for clues.GLD had a big move from $170 to $193+ and it is digesting. My $174/$177 call spread expired this Friday,. You can manage it and lose a little premium, or try and max it. Now see if GLD holds the $183 area. Otherwise it can see the 21 day near $180 so be careful. SLV hit a high of $24.90 early this week. I’d think the 21 day near $22.90 holds. I managed some of my $22/$23.50 spread. Some might sell higher calls against spreads. The China issues might drag down semis. See if AMD stays below $103 or reclaims it. $99.35 is the 2022 low. Make sure to have a plan. NVDA remains trapped in its downtrend line. There are only small tactical things to do since it got rejected into the $232 area. Now see how it handles the $218 area. If it gets and stays below that, watch the 2022 lows.Positions Disclosure as of 3/14/2022 at 8:55 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Metals and Semi Strategies
SPX futures are -37. The 4220 area is big support. If 4279 is reclaimed, maybe it relieves some pressure. We’ve lifted off the lows a bit as headline about negotiations come in.AMD still doesn’t act special because it’s just a tactical trade here and there depending on the day. See how it handles $106.80 today if tech gets a lift. NVDA remains trapped in a downtrend like most tech names. It’s just a tactical trade based on the day. Friday’s low to use is $224.82. GLD is still working higher. I put on a macro strategy in January to benefit from higher prices. It’s been my biggest swing long. It’s up again this morning after clearing $181.30 Friday. I’d trim some if I was in more than Tier #2. SLV is trending higher. My call spread is almost maxed out. My expiration is 3/18 and I need it to stay over $23.50. I’d trim some if I was in more than Tier #2.Positions Disclosure as of 3/7/2022 at 8:56 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Crypto Capitulation
SPX futures are -60 handles after a big 6.5% move from Thursday’s lows. Friday gave nice follow-through to that. Now we’ll see if the 4287 area holds to give some commitment. We have the Fed later this week and a jobs report that will be turned in after the Belarus meeting.Bitcoin: some accumulated into that 1/20-1/21 capitulation decline with me. Others waited for the Feb 3 buy signal when it cleared the downtrend line and cleared the $39K area. It hit $45K. I trimmed a lot, and held some of my alt coins which were up 30%-90%+ in that bounce. But i went back to 50% cash. I’ve traded it a bit since then and it made a higher low at $34k. It acts decent amid the volatility. It would be nice if the double bottom builds to something bigger. Ethereum: some accumulated on the 1/20-1/21 capitulation when it hit a low of $2159. On Feb 3, it broke above the downtrend line to reclaim the 8/21 day. It hit a high of $3250+ where I reduced. I did trade around it. It looks like it made a double bottom last week but we will need time to confirm that.Positions Disclosure as of 2/28/2022 at 8:59 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Tactical Trading in Tech
SPX futures were down big but are off the lows on news that Russia-Ukraine could have a diplomatic outcome. Last week they sold the CPI report. On Friday, there were ways to adjust as 4515 was rejected and 4484 was broken. For two weeks I’ve discussed the possible head & shoulders. Now we’ll see if we hold above the neckline. Reclaiming 4401 would relieve some pressure today. But I think we will test 4220 in the weeks to come. For today we’ll see if 4455-4500 gets rejected.TSLA: last Thursday I pointed out how it wasn’t leading, which was a reason to be cautious. Some got short when it broke $920 or $895. I avoided it. It’s getting some downside follow-through this morning. Perhaps there is a tactical long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $829 is support and then $792 is the low. If it reclaims $850.70, it might relieve some pressure. AAPL: many active longs got stopped out at $174.90 or $170. This morning we’ll see if there is tactical long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low for cash flow. See if it reclaims Friday’s low of $168.04. MSFT gave clues the sellers can take control again as $307 broke. That got confirmed below $299 Friday. We will be tactical each day here. Maybe there is a scalp long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $294.22 is Friday’s low. GOOGL failed to hold $3018 and filled its post-earnings gap in four days. It’s not special. But there are tactical trades. On Friday, it hit a low of $2668. We’ll see if it holds the January lows or if it gives a tactical bounce vs. a 5-15-30 minute low.Positions Disclosure as of 2/14/2022 at 9:03 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Talks Moving Averages and More on Seeking Alpha
In this video, Scott Redler joins Daniel Snyder of SeekingAlpha for a special interview:Scott goes over:How he views the 8, 21, 50, and 200 day moving averagesWhy Scott predicted 2022 would be trickyWhy the market is so challengedWhat a healthy market looks likeThe signal Meta (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL) is sendingWhy Scott is watching Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT)Why bank longs are happyWhether or not the Fed watches the marketHow stocks like PayPal (PYPL) and Peloton (PTON) have fooled tradersWe hope you enjoyed this interview!Scott’s Positions as of 2/8/2022 at 5:06 p.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Bears vs. Tech
Last week, the markets had a nice calculated bounce to bring the Oscillator from -100 to +20. The question is now did we just see the 2022 low or will we digest and rebuild for new highs? Now I’m using SPX 4451 as active support and 4539 as resistance. Some stocks can be held with care which I’m doing, along with range trades for cash flow. I did put on a bit more risk Friday.AAPL will be interesting. The bears can’t growl too loudly if it holds the $170 area. If we have a positive week, there’s room to $176. MSFT is sloppy at times. We can’t be too bearish if it stays above $299.97, but it needs time to rebuild and be trusted. GOOGL will be good for clues and a potential swing long. Some will try to be long vs. $2810. And if tech gets better, this should help lead the way. Getting back above $2900 would help sentiment. AMZN worked well for us. I netted 100+ points in my call spread. Now I’ll see if it can create a new pattern to tactically approach but I’m not in a rush. $3012 is new active support. Pivot resistance is $3224. NFLX gave a decent tactical move from $395 to $458. On Friday, I focused on the pullback. Some bought it with the Red Dog Reversal at $404. I sold puts for last Friday (which worked) and this Friday.Positions Disclosure as of 2/7/2022 at 8:40 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Earnings Action in F.A.A.N.G. Stocks
The SPX hit a low of 4222 and held 4287 Friday, giving a relief rally. It feels like this can continue for a bit. But I think things would be hard if it sees the 4495-4505 area, with 4530-4569 above. If we get an oversold bounce it might form a right shoulder to complete a macro head & shoulders pattern, but we’ll measure it daily.AAPL responded well to earnings on Friday. Can money hide here and buy dips? We shall see. I’m long and will see if it can hold the $167 area to start a better active sequence. Below that, it gets sloppy. NFLX: Reed Hastings buying stock (after Ackman last week) has it trading better. It’s hard to chase. But if it holds the $295 area, it can test the earnings gap pivot up near $408. FB has earnings on Wednesday. I’m not doing an options strategy but it will be interesting. See if it holds today and goes green for a trade. $293 is the low. AMZN broke $3300 and hit a low of $2709. There is a defined lower pivot ahead of earnings Thursday. There’s room to $3125-$3150 before the report. GOOGL has earnings on Tuesday. It will be important for sentiment. I’m not playing it. Big resistance is at $2786ish.Positions Disclosure as of 1/31/2022 at 9:01 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Sloppy Action in Semis
SPY has had four hard down days since breaking the accelerated trend around $460. That confirmed the Bearish tape after losing the 8/21 day up near $468. We’ll see if we can play some type of oversold bounce today. Let’s see if we reclaim Friday’s low of $437.95. Under there is a micro spot at $432 and then a more major one at $426.The semis got sloppy like most tech sectors. SOXL broke below the 8/21 day and strength was sold all week as it hit $45.81 yesterday. See if there’s a scalp long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low or if it reclaims the $43.42 pivot low from Friday. It’s broken like everything else. NVDA is purely a tactical trade as long as we are in this type of tape. It was rejected last week around $285 and then broke $271. Some did well short. It gave a red to green trade Friday and then rolled over. Maybe there’s an opportunity vs. a 5-15-30 minute low around the 200 day if we get a signal to buy. See if it reclaims Friday’s low at $232.66. AMD lost special status as it broke the 8/21 day around $144 and it has been for sale ever since then. It broke $125 to give clues of more selling in the semis. It gives some two way action like Friday long and short. Now, see if there’s a signal to buy for a red to green trade. The 200 day is right here. See if it reclaims Friday’s low of $118.39.Positions Disclosure as of 1/24/2022 at 8:54 a.m. ET
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