All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Top Gun Trading
SPX futures -20 and I think a little digestion would be constructive. If this market is any good, it will stay above 4030. To keep momentum, it has to hold 4075-4090 in the next few days. I participated long here as SPY reclaimed $390 and cleared $395 last week. I put on a hedge on Friday that got a little painful on that strong close. I got converted short from my calls, so this down open is helping me. I already covered a bunch of SPY at $412.50ish. If this market wants to go higher in the week or so ahead, it will hold $404-$408 in the days ahead.AMC: I bought last Wednesday because I predicted Top Gun would be huge. And it was! I bought the stock around $11.88 plus some options. AMC is up another 9% and I’ll trim. $18ish is the next level to watch. $18ish is the next big level. MBIO is a long-term name, not a trade. It’s been tough but has good news and it’s building. Maybe if XBI gets better, this will also act better. CVX is a strong stock in the energy sector. I bought some last Monday and I added as it cleared $173.50. It’s at $180 this morning. I will probably sell my stock and keep my last third of calls. SLB: I bought Tuesday for a break above the $44 pivot. It hit $48.41 and I sold mine. It’s a bit extended here. Trim some if you’re long.Positions Disclosure as of 5/31/2022 at 9:06 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Tech Sector Lows
SPX futures are +33, giving some upside follow-through to Friday’s reversal. We’ll see if it holds or fades. 3945-3970 is some resistance. See if tech holds or fades after many leaders broke hard last week.TSLA changed character on April 21 after earnings. The strong report got sold. Then the $973 break confirmed the new active bearish sequence. TSLA also lagged the bounce. On Friday, I made money short. It broke $700 to see $633 before a weak bounce with the indices. I did buy some $620 puts into the end-of-day bounce. TSLA isn’t up much considering the futures strength. I’ll be watching this carefully. AAPL helped lead the indices to the lows last week. We did well short here. I covered on Friday. I’m not sure how it will respond to market strength. Resistance is now in the $140.78-$141.60 area. AMD is very choppy and just gives two-way action based on the futures. It didn’t make a new low Friday but it hit the $88 area. It’s red while futures are up. See how it reacts today. I’m not in a rush to do anything here. NVDA is also red. But it hasn’t been special for months and has been trending lower. $155-$157 is the recent low area heading into Wednesday’s earnings.Positions Disclosure as of 5/23/2022 at 8:55 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: RDR in FAANG
SPX made a low of 3858 Thursday. To see 4120-4157, it needs to prove it can hold 3963 for a session or so. SPX futures are down 15 but well off the overnight lows. We had chances to switch gears Thursday when my 3850 target was reached. The Oscillator was -75 and it’s now -20. We’ll see if this bear market bounce goes for a week or so. SPY needs to hold $395ish to stay in the game to clear $403 and see $410-$414.TSLA did a Red Dog Reversal around the $700 pivot after six down sessions. It hit a high of $787 Friday. This morning it’s flattish. It might participate in a market bounce but it doesn’t feel like a huge rally is coming. If it can hold $751ish, maybe it can see $845. FB was a nice focus for us Thursday into Friday as it did a Red Dog Reversal to get me long. I sold Friday afternoon as it hit $199.87. I’m looking to buy for a red to green trade. It might even try and clear Friday’s high. AMZN has been one of the weakest F.A.N.G. -type names for a while now. The gap down from earnings never got filled, and it’s been last to rally on all oversold attempts. It got interesting Thursday when it bounced off of $2049. I sold three sets of puts into the weakness to get synthetically long. Buying calls would have been better. It hit $2263. Now we’ll see if it can hold $2156ish to show commitment.Positions Disclosure as of 5/16/2022 at 8:48 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Why I Bet Against Apple and Microsoft
SPX futures are -65, giving big downside follow-through to the recent technical damage. We’ll see if SPX stay belows the 4060ish area, or if it gets reclaimed. I positioned for a down open with SPY, MSFT, and AAPL puts since I’ve been concerned about a capitulation move towards 3850.Tech has led us lower for most of 2022. See if the QQQ’s can stay below $305.11 or if that gets reclaimed to relieve some pressure. Watch key leading stocks like AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, and AMD for clues on the action. LastAAPL will be interesting. Last Thursday I bought $150 puts in case it plays downside catch-up. I’ll trim some and hold some. See if it stays below $153-$154 to keep pressure on. If it stays weak $150 is below.MSFT: I went out short which will help my morning. I covered some below $268. I am also long puts for Friday. We’ll see if it stays below $270 or reclaims it to relieve some pressure. (Editor’s Note: Scott covered the rest of his MSFT short at 9:28 a.m. this morning. He also sold some of his AAPL puts after the open) AMZN’s upper channel resolved lower well before the earnings report. Now the comps are bad, growth has decelerated, and they waited too long to announce the split. If the SPX sees the 3850 area in the weeks ahead, it could hit $2050, where I’d revisit options. It’s been weaker than most F.A.N.G.-type names over the past few weeks. See if it reclaims $2261. If we stay under pressure all day, I might sell some lower strike puts for a trade. ARKK has been in an accelerated downtrend since the $159 top. It then tried to form a channel but broke it around $113. It’s been below the 8/21 day since then with many bear flag continuation patterns. The recent low is $43.99. See if it stays below that or reclaims it for tactical action. The $35 area may be a good spot for long-term money.Positions Disclosure as of 5/9/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: ETF Action
SPX futures are flattish but off the highs after the worst April since 2008. Some sectors made new 2022 lows and a few key names are at multi-year lows. We’ve been Tactical since April 5. This open isn’t very interesting with the Oscillator at -42. We’ll see if there’s a real bounce ahead of the Fed. Resistance is the 4162-4270 area. The longer we stay below that, the higher the probability we see the 3850-4000 region.ARKK has made lower highs and lower lows for almost a year and a half. My moving average rules should have helped you stay out of the way. When something is below the 8/21 day, you can’t hold onto it. Last week’s low was $45.89. Use that for active action today. XBI is weak but sometimes gives trades. It broke $80 to make a new low of $72.59 last week. Use that pivot for active action. XLE lost special status last when it broke the $79 area on April 21. Last Monday, it made a low of $71 and had a decent bounce. I’d stay tactical here. This sector needs time to re-build. Banks haven’t been a place to hide all year. XLF is broken like most sectors. Use last week’s low of $34.45 for tactical action.Positions Disclosure as of 5/2/2022 at 8:52 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Bearish Semis and Crypto
SPX broke 4370 Friday and closed on the lows. We’ll see if we test the March lows this week. The SPX is getting downside follow-through with futures down 40 handles. Can it hold the bottom of the range that starts around 4160? That’s the question. The low of the year is 4111.NVDA’s sell signals preceded major weakness in tech. $278 was key. Then it broke macro support at $206-$210 which was bad. Maybe we’ll get a cute oversold bounce vs. a 5-15-30 low. $195 is Friday’s low. AMD’s March 30 sell signal was a sign to take risk down. It’s been weaker than the market since then. It hit $87.94 Friday. It’s a bit oversold. Maybe there is a cute Red Dog Reversal long for active cash flow today. Bitcoin has been in a big bear market since the sell signal on November 14. There have been tactical trades but no real traction. $32K-$37K is a big macro area. We’ll see if that holds, or if they really increase volatility in the weeks ahead. This gives clues on tech so watch it. Ethereum went from $2700 up to $3500+ and then the upper flag broke around $3400. It’s back below the moving averages. I’m glad I Tweeted that I got smaller into that $3500+ area. I’d stay small. Also, if you’re in alt coins, know that some will just never come back. Don’t have a false sense of security. But I will accumulate CRO, SOL, MVDG, GALA, and WAXP in the weeks ahead.Positions Disclosure as of 4/25/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: FAANG Under Pressure
SPX futures are -15 but off the overnight lows. See if it reclaims 4381 to relieve pressure or if sellers push down towards the 4335 area. Strength has been sold since the Red Dog Reversal at 4593 on April 5.TSLA lost super special status on the Red Dog Reversal at $1150. Then it failed to hold the $1115 area. It made a low of $973 last week which is our new point of reference. It reports Wednesday. It’s up $10 on news the Shanghai Factory is back online. But it’s below the $1012-$1026 resistance area. It’s not a great setup. If it goes red it would be bad for the sentiment. $973 will be key. AMZN is tricky after it gave us a nice move from $2940 to $3400+. Then it lost special status like most tech names. Now it needs to hold $2992 support. Otherwise, it can be pressured more. It reports April 28. AAPL went red fast on Thursday, giving some clues to take risk down. It closed on the lows of the day. It’s below all the moving averages and just a tactical trade. Maybe it goes red to green if it can reclaim $165.05. I’d take trades though. It reports April 28.Positions Disclosure as of 4/18/2022 at 8:38 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Losing Special Status
SPX futures are -20 to kick off the week. Last Tuesday, the market shifted again and I took risk down. We had a bearish engulfing candle around the SPX 4583 pivot with tech leading the downside. Now we’ll see if the 4450 area holds, or if there is more weakness. Banks earnings start with JPM on Wednesday. Metals are getting some upside follow-through as oil tests important intermediate support.TSLA lost super special status Last Tuesday with the Red Dog Reversal sell around the $1150 pivot. It confirmed that by failing to hold $1115. It closed below the 8 day Friday. This morning it looks below the 21 day but above the 50 day. I’ll see if there’s an opportunity vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $950-$964 is a compelling support spot. AMZN went from super special to vulnerable. It failed to hold $3310 and broke $3244 and couldn’t reclaim them. It also lost the 8/21 day fast with a low Friday at $3085. It’s worth a look into the $2993-$3042 area this morning or vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. AAPL took a week off from its special status. Today we’ll see if there are tactical opportunities to buy around the 50 day ($168.50). A hard break below would be bad for tech. I’ll watch it closely. MSFT lost the 8/21 day like most of tech. Maybe there’s a tactical bounce near the $289 support pivot.Positions Disclosure as of 4/11/2022 at 8:45 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Discusses the Elon Musk-Twitter Explosion
Was it IMPOSSIBLE to catch Twitter’s (TWTR) share price explosion, driven by Elon Musk taking a 9.2% stake in the company and then joining the board? No! Scott Redler just joined Liz Claman on Fox Business, revealing why he bought Twitter call options last week — BEFORE we heard the Elon Musk news: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com *past performance does not guarantee future performance Scott explains:Why Twitter has been considered an undervalued assetThe problem with Jack DorseyWhat unusual options activity told Scott about TwitterWhy he stayed with the stock after Monday’s popAnd interestingly enough… in his 2022 Market Outlook Report, Scott predicted Twitter would reach the $53 to $55 area this year, as you can see here:Twitter just hit $54.94 in premarket trade: Now let’s look at the chart of the Twitter April 29 $43 calls Scott picked up for about $1.40 last week: They went from $1.40 to $12.25! Scott trimmed and trailed on the way up as part of his trade management style, and as of this writing, is still long some Twitter and April 29 $43 calls. The lesson? Pay attention to unusual options activity. It doesn’t always pay off… but sometimes, the results can be explosive… especially when Elon Musk is in the mix.P.S. Want a FREE month to Scott’s Services So You Can Get His Next Call on Stocks Like Twitter and Tesla? Our “Buy One Get One” Sale Is ON! So hit that big red button to get started today: Click Here Now Positions Disclosure as of 4/5/2022 at 3:59 p.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Thank You, Elon!
SPX futures are +4. Friday gave us the 4507 pivot to trade against after hitting a high of 4637. We’ve had a nice active sequence since SPX reclaimed the 8/21 day around 4335 on 3/15. We’ll see if we can rebuild some new patterns to stay constructive as we head towards earnings season.TWTR is up 22% on Elon Musk taking a stake in the company. Some members of the community flagged unusual options activity, so I got in calls. Thanks Elon! You made my day! MSFT has had lots of tradable patterns as it cleared $305.50 to see $315+. It hit a low of $305.54 before bouncing. It looks above $310 this morning. See if it holds above that. FB hit a high of $231 and pulled back a bit. It needs to hold the $222 area to stay constructive. If it can get and stay above $227.50, perhaps it opens the door for more upside. GOOGL had a big move to $2871. Many got stopped out when it broke $2840. On Friday, some bought with a Red Dog Reversal buy through $2781. Now see if it can get and stay above $2809.Positions Disclosure as of 4/4/2022 at 9:02 a.m. ET
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