All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: What About Tesla?
SPX futures are +5 and we see if 4524 holds to keep upper momentum. The trade is very specific right now. SNAP, INTC and IBM put pressure on tech. We’ll see how FB’s earnings report after the close goes. Over in tech, as long as QQQ holds the $372 area, it’s hard to get too bearish.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. TSLA is now a top 3 P&L winner for me this year. It gave a beautiful long setup from $807 and another nice reentry post-earnings. It went green and cleared $877 and then $900 Friday. There’s nice upside follow-through this morning on a Morgan Stanley upgrade and Hertz news. I’d trim and trail. AMZN got hit Friday with most of tech as the $3400 pivot broke. I do have a call spread on for earnings Thursday. The only way it works is if a split gets announced, which might be far-fetched. There is a huge channel here with very choppy action, so be careful. FB was having problems even before the SNAP earnings miss which showed advertisers are not spending. It will be important to see if all the negativity is priced in. $317.37 was a recent point of reference. It reports today. They are also planning on changing their name so we will see they announce that.Positions Disclosure as of 10/25/2021 at 8:08 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Adding a Cannabis Name to Power Plays…
I just added a cannabis name to my Power Plays service. Why? Most of the time, the group is EXTREMELY hard. The stocks can go down whether the news is good or bad. Look at this chart of the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ): MJ is up just +2.4% +YTD. For comparison: SPY is up 21% QQQ is up 20% XLE (energy) is up 53% The F.A.N.G. stocks are up 27% But once or twice a year, the cannabis sector is ripe to catch up — and it typically happens in the fourth quarter. And this particular name I’m selecting for Power Plays seem primed for an early January effect move. (the January effect seems to happen a little earlier each year) Want in? Join Power Plays with a $39 monthly subscription and you’ll get my full take, plus a $95 bonus on me. Limited time! Click here to learn all the details!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: What the Market Cares About
We have mixed markets to start the week as the narratives change a bit.. Inflation and higher rates still dominate the headlines but supply chain worries hit their peak last week. China and the Pandemic went on the back burner a few weeks ago. Earnings season is underway. Last week traders were rewarded for using my process to buy leaders and get risk back on when the 8/21 day gets reclaimed like SPX did at 4380. That was the day after a Red Dog Reversal buy signal last Wednesday. SPX futures are -20 which makes sense after such a big move. This gives traders a way to cover some hedges, and perhaps add back stocks they trimmed into last week’s strength. I’d think 4440-4445 holds to keep this new active long sequence intact. it can even see 4380 and still be fine – just a little choppier.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. The banks played their usual game. JPM’s report was sold, then they rallied each day after and XLF hit a high of $39.71. It could use a digestive day above $39.18. My JPM plan worked great. I bought $165 calls into weakness last Wednesday in the $1.50 area. I trimmed over half Friday to get smaller. Earnings are quickly approaching. NFLX is tomorrow and TSLA is Wednesday. The rest of F.A.N.G. reports next week. NFLX paid us a few times as it cleared the channel to see $646+. Then it took the week off. It has a decent looking bull flag. I might put on a call spread for Tuesdays’ earnings for a move above the recent highs. I’ll post it if I do today. TSLA has been a great relative strength play. It held the 8 day while the SPX was hitting the 100 day. Then it cleared the $807 area and is above $850 this morning. Being away for my race helped me stay long. I’ll trim most into this earnings Wednesday. I don’t take stock into earnings. I might do an options play but I’m not sure yet. AAPL did not lead this last move but participated. They have an event today where they are expected to announce new MacBooks and a new generation of AirPods. See if there’s any surprises. It needs to hold the $143.50 area to stay constructive.Positions Disclosure as of 10/18/2021 at 8:08 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Interviewed on The SimCast Show
Want to get to know Scott Redler a little better? Watch Episode 2 of The SimCast episode, where Scott discusses moving averages, the Red Dog Reversal, and more! When you’re done, click here to check out Scott’s new service Power Plays!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: The Big Oil Story
We have mixed markets around the world with rising energy prices, rates, and inflation dominating the narrative.SPY had a nice calculated move from $429 up to the $442 resistance area. Friday it started to fill the gap and this morning it’s around $435. Perhaps there’s a 5-15-30 minute low to add some back against this morning. $432.50 is the last support line to keep things looking constructive. So see if that holds.Now let’s dig into some of the individual things I’m watching. Oil is at 7-year highs over $81. OIH has been a nice swing long for the past two weeks. I’d be looking to trim, not add. It’s almost finished the measured move to $220. The 10 year (TNX) didn’t pull in with Friday’s weak jobs report. It held the 1.57% line I talked about. Now it’s on the way to the March highs which can keep some pressure on tech. Watch TNX and TLT intraday to help measure the action. NFLX hit my measured move of $640+ so I’m out. Some will stay as long as it keeps riding the 8 day down near the $620 area. UBER: I bought last Wednesday as the pattern looked great and Mark Mahaney called it his favorite pick. It cleared $46.89 to see $48.88 where I got smaller to book some profits with my tier system. Now, I’d like to see it hold the $47.50 area to stay with it. Bitcoin has had nice power since clearing $44,000. It hit $55,000+. It’s pretty impressive that it held $53,000. Now it looks headed to the $59,000-$64,900 zone.Positions Disclosure as of 10/4/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Why Rates Matter Now
SPX futures are -10 after a rollercoaster ride overnight. We’ll see if there’s any commitment to Friday’s reversal. SPY needs to hold the $432-$433 range. A close below that and it gets very choppy. QQQ’s need to hold the $357 area. Watch the 10 year (TNX) and TLT for clues on the broader action. (more on these below)Now let’s dig into some of the individual things I’m watching. Rates are dictating a lot of the trade because that’s how the computers are programmed. TNX broke below 1.50% and hit 1.46% Friday which helped tech. Watch it today. If the 10 year is going back to the March highs at 1.7%, tech will remain vulnerable. TLT bounced which helped the tech reversal. It’s down today. See if it holds the $143.65 area. Otherwise tech can really get hit. If it tries for green, perhaps we get some red to green action in tech. Banks should be good to buy on dips as we get higher rates in the coming months. XLF has last week’s low at $37.49 to trade against.BAC had a big move from $40 to $44+ for some. It held the 8 day where I bought some to try and position for better upside. This might be the place to be if rates continue to trend higher. $44.04 is a recent high. I will only add on dips. The F.A.N.G.-type names have been under pressure and just giving tactical trades for now as rates rise. TSLA will be very important today. It had very strong deliveries. Can it hold the early strength and stay above $793-$799 and extend higher? Or does the news get sold? This will be a big measure of sentiment and risks so pay close attention. NFLX has been the best F.A.N.G. type name and held the 8 day Friday. I’d see if today’s dip is buyable. It would be constructive to hold the $599-$608 area. The Squid Game is really popular and is getting a lot of press.Positions Disclosure as of 10/4/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Where the Algos Go
SPX futures are -5 and off the overnight highs. For this market to rebuild and remain constructive for active longs, the 4400 area needs to hold. It did go from the 100 day up to 4463 fast. We’re seeing a bit of digestion and it seems like the algos are programmed to buy banks and value after the Fed’s hawkish language. Yields are lifting which could get worrisome at some point, but for now it’s considered a “normalization process.”Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. I took a lot of DATS in the $8.50 area. It triggered above $9.13 to see $12+ to manage my last tier. Now I’d like to see it hold $10 on the remainder. HOOD was a good buy in the $41 area and it hit $47+ to book some gains. I’m still in some and will see if the $44 area holds to stay with it. CALX was a nice trade through $49 and it hit $53.50. I did buy some as it held $50. That spot needs to hold for the stock to stay special. FCEL isn’t an over focus, but I picked some up around $6.50 to see if it gets a better bounce if small caps do a bit better. Holding $6.70ish keeps it looking okay. I put on DLO last week and it acted well. Now it needs to clear $68ish with volume to open the door for $73+.Positions Disclosure as of 9/27/2021 at 8:24 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Hard Times!
Over the two weeks, we’ve been cautious because of macro issues like Evergrande/China, the Debt Ceiling, Fed Tapering, and US tax hikes.From a technical perspective, the SPX got faulty and then lost the 8/21 day to have active traders reducing risk. 14,000+ traders around the world have read my moving averages ebook, so hopefully you were more careful. For a market correction to happen, you need a close below the 8/21day. Then we get Price Discovery. Everyone will guess on what comes next. We’ll map out levels and be tactical and measure things along the way. In a sea of red, we’ll see if any groups can go green for a trade. That should be your big focus now.Now let’s dig into the major ETF’s so you know what to watch to start the week. Tech got faulty late last week, especially Friday when I got out of all the F.A.N.G. type names. Now we’ll see if QQQ’s can hold the 50 day near $368.50-$369.50 for a trade. If that zone breaks, volatility will spike further with the 100 day all the way down at $360. IWM had a little relative strength on Friday, but it still isn’t special. For today, see if it can reclaim $219. Otherwise, I’d avoid it. XLF closed below the 8/21 day which makes the banks an avoid. Now see how it handles the $37.15 area. I gave OIH until $184 as the energy sector is always tricky. Some are giving it to $178. I’ll see how it acts the next few sessions. Two weeks ago, I put on a big VXX call spread in case volatility hit. I took the October 15 $30/$35 spread for a cost of $0.65 to make $4.35. I might trim some 20% the long side and keep the short side. Usually, VXX spikes only last a week or so and it’s less than a month to expiration.Positions Disclosure as of 9/20/2021 at 8:24 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Facing Facebook
SPY closed on the lows last week below the 8/21 day which had me taking risk down. If sellers want to keep some active control, they need to reject the price into the $448.75-$449.50 area. That is the range you need to watch today, so keep it on your radar.Now let’s dig into some key names, starting with a big one: FB seemed the strongest on Friday and if the market hangs in, it might be a focus to clear the $384.33 pivot to make new all-time highs. GS upgraded it this morning. This name has been very good to us. If tech gets sold, use $380.50 as upper support. AAPL: there’s lots of debate on the ramifications of the Epic verdict. The stock broke $153.95 and the $151.29 pivot to flush some active longs out. We’ll see if it was an over reaction. It’s bouncing back a bit this morning. If sellers want to keep some control, I’d think they reject price into the $151.29 area. Also, if this goes from green to red, it might bring out sellers in tech. AMZN had a nice move after clearing the descending channel around $3240 to peak at $3549. I sold puts twice to get synthetically long which was nicely profitable. Today, see if it clears $3482 or gets rejected. That will tell us a lot about sentiment in tech. It’s holding up better than most names, so I’ll try to get long again if the market holds in. RBLX was a nice trade for us last week. I bought it around $84 and it hit $90+. I still have some on. Now it needs to hold the $85.30 area. Positions Disclosure as of 9/13/2021 at 8:05 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Tech Watch
SPX futures are flattish. We’re getting a slow start to the week after the weaker-than-expected jobs data from Friday. The consensus is that the Taper will start December and might be a reduction of $10B instead of $15B. The 9/22 Fed Dot plots will be important. September is historically a volatile month, but we can’t get too bearish if 4513 holds. So remember that level. If the rally wants to continue, 4545 is pivot resistance.Now let’s dig into some key tech names. SOXL did a Red Dog Reversal around the $38.58 pivot and stayed special all the way to $49. Last week it digested above $45 to keep its commitment. Some are in vs. that spot.NVDA led the semis since announcing a stock split. Earnings got it going again through the $209 area. It hit $230.42 before consolidating above $221. On Friday, it turned up and now we’ll see if it tries to clear that high for another move. Be careful adding on strength.AMD keeps giving us new setups. Friday got me back long vs. $108.50. I’ll see if it can get and stay over $111.17 to possibly add. SNAP started acting better as I re-entered. It’s still a bit sloppy so you need to take care with size. I’d like to see it hold the $71.50 area. Perhaps it clears $75-$77 to open the door for higher prices.PYPL has a nice bull type flag look so I got in Friday. I might add vs. $284 to go green. Then it needs to clear $293 with authority to open the door for a move back to the $310 area in time. Positions Disclosure as of 9/7/2021 at 8:05 a.m. ET
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