All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Nowhere to Hide in Banks
SPX futures are -50 and we’ll see if this ascending channel breaks. Does it stay below 4614 or reclaim it to relieve some pressure? 4582 is support below with major support at 4500. Tech is underperforming and JPM’s action proves you just can’t hide in value or banks.I got out of my banks last Wednesday because I don’t hold through earnings – which is a good thing considering how these names are acting after the prints. JEF and JPM got hit on results. GS under pressure this morning. XLF held the $40.34 pivot. See if that holds. JPM underwhelmed on earnings and had a big gap down with a hole in its chart. Sometimes there is a better entry the week after earnings. See how this handles Friday’s low of $156.90 and I’ll see patiently if I want to enter again. GS failed to impress exactly when Wall Street said you had to be long banks. Now they are testing the 200 day. See if GS can hold the $366 area. Otherwise it can go a lot lower.Positions Disclosure as of 1/18/2022 at 8:51 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Are F.A.A.N.G. Stocks Worth It?
SPX did a false breakout around the 4730-4740 area and now it looks below 4660 with the futures -30. Powell gets confirmed Tuesday, CPI is Wednesday, and banks start reporting earnings on Friday. Most active traders are in a Tactical Approach because it’s hard to find special names to sit in as swing longs.F.A.N.G. stocks have very specific tactical action. AAPL lost momentum as it broke the $179 pivot to get me out. It looks below $171. See if it stays below that, or reclaims it to relieve pressure. $167.45 is key support below. MSFT was sold to start 2022 as it broke the 8/21 day. It has been for sale since. $310.09 is Friday’s low. See if it holds or stays below that. The next spot is $305.50ish. FB is trying to re-build, but it’s still very tricky. It needs to hold the $322 area. See if it stays below or reclaims Friday’s low of $328.88. AMZN’s false move around $3414 in AMZN led to more weakness and it hit a low of $3238. It’s a tough name as it works lower. $3175 is the next support spot, but it looks like $2881 can happen over time if tech remains for sale. It’s hard to press short or buy. $3238 is key – does it stay below or reclaim that? GOOGL lost special status as it broke the $2875 pivot area to see $2715 Friday. Watch that pivot today, but looks like the 200 day down near $2600 is in the cards.Positions Disclosure as of 1/3/2022 at 9:17 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Trading F.A.A.N.G in 2022
The first level to hold is SPX 4786 then we’ll see if there is strength to clear 4808. Be on alert because 2021 winners may get sold now that taxes are pushed off until 2023. And beaten down names can get a lift because tax loss selling is over. Support for the week is 4765ish. F.A.N.G. stocks have very specific tactical action. I’m still looking to trade them to net money. AAPL can be a good stock for clues on tech. I’m still long from before my trip. We’ll see if it can get and stay above $179.23 or of profit takers come in. $177.26 is the 8 day and pivot support from last week to adjust around. MSFT was a strong leader last year. We’ll see if the gap up holds or fades. Key active support pivot is $335.85. To get better, it needs to get and stay above $339.36. FB gave us a move from $335 ish to $350+ and then came in pretty hard. I still have half my call spread on. I’ll give it some time. We’ll see if opening strength holds, or if they sell it. Watch $336.27 as key support for the day. GOOGL was choppy last year but made a few all-time highs to help lead. It closed on the lows Friday and it is up today. We’ll see how it reacts in the first 5-15-30 minutes for clues. $2897 is Friday’s low to watch. AMZN lagged for most of last year in a big tricky range with limited opportunities. I positioned into two call spreads because it might wake up. Today, it’s up $18. See if new flows have power to keep it up, or if it goes red. If that happens, see how it handles the $3331 pivot low from Friday.Positions Disclosure as of 1/3/2022 at 9:17 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: How I’m Trading Crypto
SPX futures are -55 and we’ll see if the 4495-4513 area holds. Otherwise the 200 day can’t be ruled out in the sessions ahead. Look at tech for clues today and see if leaders can go green to mute the selling. Cooler heads usually prevail.I don’t think Bitcoin or Ethereum have bottomed. Bitcoin moves fast and also follows active sequences. On 11/9 it gave \ a sell signal around that 69k pivot which was confirmed when $63k broke to get me into 75% cash. It just hit $45k and bounced a bit but I’m still waiting. I’d be interested closer to $42k down to $37.6k if we get a whoosh. I warned that Ethereum is vulnerable and can play downside catch-up after the double top and loss of the 8/21 day near $4250. It broke below the $3960 area but didn’t accelerate lower. I’d be interested closer to $3400ish, $3200ish, and then $2700ish. Otherwise I”ll stay away until I see a more constructive price pattern. I sold more than half of my CRO as it hit .97c. I kept 25% and got filled Friday night into the .40 area. I took most of that off into the .60+ bounce. Be careful! If Ethereum and Bitcoin break this can see the .30’s again which might be a spot to accumulate. WAX was a huge winner. I started at .08. I sold 25% at .74 and another 25% at .97 to get me down to half. Recently, I got very heavy into the .40-.50 area again but was able to trade around that as it hit .73 on the AMZN news. This is still my biggest alt coin. But the market still seems vulnerable so I’m being careful. I’d be interested closer to .35-.42 again if it sees it.Positions Disclosure as of 12/20/2021 at 8:03 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: 6 Big Tech Names I’m Watching
SPX futures are +15. Last week the index digested above the 8 day after reclaiming all the moving averages. We’ll see if it holds 4713 and builds or fades. It’s a tape of “haves and have nots” which has some traders frustrated because only a few names are driving the action. We’ll see if that changes.Now let’s dig into some of the big tech names I’m watching: AAPL got back in charge as it cleared $152 and $157 back in mid-November. It has been special since then. I did well with calls and stock. It got a double upgrade and is above $179.63 this morning. I’d trim into strength and wouldn’t start a fresh long up here because it’s extended. That doesn’t mean it’s an easy short. GOOGL is back above all the moving averages. It held the $2900 area all week. Some are long vs. that range. A close above $2980 opens the door for a test of all-time highs, or even more upside.AMZN is trying to rebuild after holding the 200 day. It’s still not special but the longer it holds the $3410 area, the higher the probability it clears $3549 with the next spot above near $3675. I might put on a macro call spread for late January if this channel finally wants to resolve higher.NFLX lost special status weeks ago. Recently it held the $594 area. Maybe it works vs. $606 for a move to $632, but it’s not very compelling. QCOM has a nice technical set up. Some are long vs. $180 to engage it. Others are waiting for a strong volume move over $188 to break out to new highs. RBLX is getting very loose and wide. We’ll see if it can get tighter and hold the $113 area to get constructive again.Positions Disclosure as of 12/12/2021 at 8:03 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: What’s Next After the Storm?
SPX futures are +10. The Oscillator is -75. Last Friday, the index held the 4500 area again. It’s not a great setup. We’ll see if the early strength holds or fades. The 50 day is 4570 with bigger resistance at 4610ish.Now let’s dig into some of the big ETF’s I’m watching: On Friday, SPY held the $450 area again. We’ll see if today’s early strength holds, or fades. $456ish is pivot resistance and big resistance is above at the $460 area. A strong close below $450 opens the door for another leg lower. QQQ is showing some relative weakness this morning after it gave signals to take down risk the past few weeks. We’ll see if it stays below $383.34 and how it handles Friday’s low of $378.90. The 100 day is below near $374. We’ll see if it pulls SPY down or reverses higher to relieve some pressure.IWM’s breakout failure resulted in a move down to the $212 area. It’s up small this morning. The longer it stays below the $220 area, the higher the probability it breaks to the downside with $209 as the key area. That would be bad for the macro condition of the market.Semis were trying to hold up. This morning they are showing some relative weakness. If SOXL breaks and closes below the $59-$60 area, it won’t be good for tech. My XBI call options haven’t worked because this sector has been down for 20+ days. The ASH Hematology conference starts this weekend, but hasn’t been a driver. We’ll see if that changes soon.Positions Disclosure as of 12/5/2021 at 8:06 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Watching the BIG ETFs
SPX futures are +15, giving some upside-through to Friday when we cleared 4664. I want to trim into some strength so I can buy dips and keep managing the Portfolio Approach that has been great since 10/13.Now let’s dig into some of the big ETF’s I’m watching: QQQ woke up again Friday as it cleared the $392 area with lots of specific action. The QQQ’s will open above Friday’s high of $395.25. I’d trim some longs so I can buy dips and net money. The big IWM channel resolved higher. It cleared $230 to see a high of $244. And last week it held in nicely, giving us $236 to trade against. Dips are buyable as long as that holds. Today, see if it clears and holds $240. My call spread still looks good. Banks are trying to rebuild with a pretty big bull flag pattern. As long as XLF holds the $39.80 area, some might be long. Others are waiting for a strong close above $40.20. Cannabis has been great since the Friday Igniting bar. MSOS gave a way to add on the pullback into the $29 area and it’s at $33+ this morning. I will likely trim some MSOS and the calls CGC, TLRY, and VFF calls which I picked up weeks ago.Positions Disclosure as of 11/15/2021 at 8:11 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Trading Tesla: 7 Lessons from an Epic Bear Smash
Every once in a while, a stock comes along that defines the times. In 2019-2020, that stock was electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA). Tesla’s stock price went from under $40 to nearly $200 in 8 months, and dominated the news headlines along the way. Tesla was getting more attention than just any stock out there, aside from maybe Apple (AAPL).Some traders made fortunes. Others had their hearts broken. Two big things were happening:Bears ignored powerfully bullish technical signals Bulls pushed things beyond what seemed reasonable.And by studying this one stretch of Tesla’s price action, you can learn a lot about momentum, risk management, permabears, and the power of a cult of personality.I’ve distilled Tesla’s big run into 7 important lessons, which you’ll start learning right now.Scott Redler’s Positions as of 11/9/2021 at 3:34 p.m. ET.1. Understand That Some Stocks Are Just Plain DifferentSome stocks have such a powerful story that investors will routinely ignore short-term bumps in the road.Amazon (AMZN) is a great example. It’s missed on earnings plenty of times and had its fair share of bad news, but people have believed in the long-term story so much that every dip gets bought. Very few companies command that type of respect, so Amazon is basically in its own category.The long-term chart says it all:Tesla is also just plain different from the crowd in that it routinely goes from “left for dead” to “can’t be stopped.”Call it… the Elon Musk factor. Not many CEOs can get away with smoking pot with Joe Rogan. And that’s not the only trouble Tesla’s survived: there was the infamous ‘funding secured’ tweet, which attracted the attention of the SEC:Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 7, 2018 What sets Tesla apart is its unique power to be forgiven for its misdeeds.There are core believers that are ready to juice the stock up at any given moment.These folks are 100% convinced in Tesla’s ability to succeed in electric cars, solar power, energy storage, and whatever Elon Musk comes up with next.And there are shorts that believe the company is just one step away from failure.So Tesla is a cornered animal.You can’t turn your back on it.Because every time Tesla seems like it’s on the verge of disaster, or that the stock’s just gone too far too fast, Elon Musk pulls a rabbit out of the hat.And just when it seems like it’s blue skies ahead, it stumbles. Tesla is a truly unpredictable stock — especially for a large cap.You never know what’s coming next.2. Price Action RulesIf you follow me on Twitter, you know that I follow the 8 & 21 day moving averages very, very closely. They’re my short-term momentum monitor. When stocks are trending above the 8 & 21 day exponential moving averages, I don’t fight them. The #1 reason traders lose on shorts is because they look at a chart and say “that’s gone too far. It has to go down.” But stocks like Tesla go too far all the time. It’s in their very nature. If a stock goes from $20 to $40 in the blink of an eye, you can’t count out $50. And if it gets to $50, you can’t count out $60, etc.Now, before you turn the page, look at the chart below. It is naked aside from two moving averages. What do you see? I see a lot of opportunities. Let’s break it down step by step.A) The Earnings Gap Holds On October 24, 2019, Tesla had a big pro earnings gap that woke it up. That was the moment we knew it was coming alive. And then it didn’t fill a single penny of the gap. That’s a sign of strength you can’t ignore, and should have been a wakeup call for the shorts.B) Cybertruck ConsolidationIn mid-Nov. to mid-December, Tesla had a healthy consolidation, with the 8 & 21 day refusing to break. As we’ll discuss later in more detail, this was during the Cybertruck launch drama, which was a pivotal time for the stock.C) Major Breakout LevelYou saw before how quick the short-term move was, but it’s also helpful to view things on a longer time frame because when historic levels get broken, they attract a lot of traders’ attention.And in this case, we’re talking about the Major Breakout Level at $76, which was a prior high for the stock.Turns out, what came next was even more explosive than I could have imagined!D) Accelerating Above the 8 DayThis was one of the most powerful moves I’ve ever seen. It was straight out of 1999.From December 5, 2019 to February 11, 2020, Tesla did not test the 21 day a single time.There was a quick test of the 8 day on February 6, but it was quickly reclaimed.E) The Parabolic MoveDo we really need to explain this? Tesla went absolutely wild, hitting $193.80.So what am I saying? Price action rules. Period!This trend demanded respect! And speaking of respect…3. Respect Stocks That Refuse to DieLet’s talk about the Cybertruck, which Elon Musk unveiled on November 21, 2019:Here are some headlines from the event:But how did the chart react to the Cybertruck launch, which included Elon Musk accidentally breaking a window? Let’s move in for a closer look: Tesla gapped down after the Cybertruck announcement.And then, on November 26, Elon Musk tweeted that preorders hit 250,000, which basically nullified all of the criticism.By refusing to break the 8 & 21 day, Tesla was telling you it wasn’t going down without a fight.And then when the Cybertruck announcement gap was filled with the 8 & 21 day being reclaimed, that was a sign sentiment was turning very positive.The lesson: if a stock refuses to die, show it some respect. 4. Be Careful When Hot Stocks Extend From the 8 DayI did very well with Tesla from the long side, especially with the call options and call spreads I bought in November.But I also sold call options to give me short exposure 4 separate times when it got super-extended from the 8
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Did Cannabis Stocks Bottom?
SPX hit a high of 4718 on Friday. It’s a bit extended and might need a few days to catch its breath. Listen up for whether Powell gets the nod because that can move the market a bit. I’d think the market would like Powell instead of Brainard. We’ll see if 4681 holds, or if they shake the tree down towards the 8 day.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. TSLA was great to us from $800 all the way to $1200+ with lots of setups for cash flow. I’m short some calls from Friday so I don’t mind this down open. Elon tweeted about the possibility of him selling 10% of his stock. This morning it was as low as $1130 and it’s off that. I’ll wait for some price discovery before I trade it. The 8 day is $1152. The cannabis sector has been battered and bruised all year. Most are selling for tax losses and PM’s trying to get them off the books and MSOS has been very broken. Maybe Friday’s news changes all of that. It did go 10% on Friday so take care chasing today. But I’d think $33.80 can happen. $30ish is Resistance #1. I started to position for the January effect, so this move can help my options. I grabbed some GRWG as US Cannabis names woke up Friday. I did trim some and I’ll hold some in case this starts a new active sequence.Positions Disclosure as of 11/8/2021 at 8:11 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: The Metaverse Begins
SPX futures are +20, giving upside follow-through to Friday’s strong close. It’s been above the 8 day for 14 sessions, giving us a great Bullish active sequence to manage. I’ll stay with it as long as it continues using my tier system. And I’ll look to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. FB got a positive reaction to the Metaverse pivot. The symbol changes to $MVRS on December 1. It is still broken, but some caught a Red Dog Reversal long as it reclaimed the $309 pivot to see a high of $325.50. It’s hard to chase this open, but it might try and fill that gap above this week. TSLA was a huge winner for me and helped get me back to highs of the year. There have been multiple strategies since clearing the $805 area in early October. On Friday it cleared its flag pattern above $1094. I’m long and will trim some. I also have some calls sold higher, and I may add to those carefully.MSFT has had impressive action both pre and post-earnings. Keep managing the trade. It hit $331.05 Friday. I’d look to trim, not add this morning. It’s a little extended. That doesn’t mean it’s an easy short.GOOGL has been best in breed. Some active longs might be in vs. $2893. The recent all-time high pivot is $2973. See if it clears that for extra cash flow.AAPL absorbed the post-earnings weakness well Friday, giving us a cash flow opportunity. It’s flattish this morning. I might need some time. Let’s see if the $148.50 area holds.Positions Disclosure as of 12/1/2021 at 8:11 a.m. ET
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