All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler: What Could Trigger More Upside in TSLA This Week?
Tesla (TSLA) has been a real battleground stock. It had a big day on volume, clearing $301 and then the $310 area to see $330ish. If it can hold $313ish this week and close above the $324.50 area, perhaps it can see more upside this week. On Friday, the SPX absorbed a lower open and closed near the highs. This week, as long as we hold 2750ish, the active bulls stay in control for the possibility of clearing 2779 to test the 2800 area. Tech took a few days off after a big move. As long as the QQQ’s hold the $173 area, it seems constructive with the potential for higher prices. Let’s see if the F.A.N.G. names hold Friday’s lows, and if they perk up. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Secrets of Trend Analysis: The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Moving Averages
Moving averages are one of my most important trading tools. They help me figure out:1) Whether I want to be in a Portfolio Approach or Tactical Approach2) Which stocks I want to be long or short3) The strength of the current market trend In fact, if I was a beginning trader looking to build my net worth, moving averages would be my #1 focus. In this lesson, you’re going to see the power of judging stocks and the market using the 8 & 21 day moving averages. First, let’s run through the basics so we’re on the same page.What Is a Moving Average?A moving average is a stock’s average price over a certain time period. We’re going to focus on the daily time frame this article. A daily moving average is the average of a stock’s daily closing price. For example, the 50 day moving average is a stock’s average closing price for the last 50 days. Every day, the newest closing price in the moving averages replaces the oldest, which is why we call it ‘moving’ — it’s changing every day. Here’s a simple chart of Apple (AAPL) with its 50 day moving average. Simple vs. Exponential Moving AveragesThere are 2 types of moving averages — simple and exponential. A simple moving average is a straight average of the stock price. An exponential moving average gives recent prices a bigger weight, so it does a better job of measuring recent momentum. Going forward in this article, we will only use exponential moving averages.The 8 day moving average will be shown in magenta.And the 21 day moving average will be in red.The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Moving AveragesTraders often ask me why I talk about the 8 & 21 day moving averages so much. Whether you see me on CNBC, Twitter, or the Virtual Trading Floor®, odds are you’ll see me talking about them. It’s because these moving averages are the most accurate short-term road map I’ve found. The 8 & 21 day moving averages are the most accurate short-term road map you can find – @reddogt3 Click to Tweet This Tip from Scott Redler! A Chart’s Worth a Thousand WordsLet’s rewind the clock back to the Brexit in June 2016. The day before the Brexit vote, the SPY hit $210.87. And the day after the ‘shocking’ vote, it hit $188.65.If you were focused on the headlines, you were feeling pretty scared:A Statement of StrengthBut let’s extend the chart to see what actually happened. As you can see, SPY started bouncing, and on June 30, 2016, it reclaimed the 8 & 21 day moving averages:That’s a statement of strength. Why? Because it meant momentum was shifting back to the upside. And in this case, SPY briefly retested the 8 & 21 day moving averages before rallying above $219:Price Action vs. OpinionsEveryone had an opinion over what the Brexit would mean. But as you just saw in the charts, our opinions didn’t matter as much as the market’s. When SPY reclaimed the 8 & 21 day moving averages with authority, it screamed that the bulls were retaking control. And that’s an important lesson for you: when a stock/index/ETF reclaims the 8 & 21 day moving averages with authority, PAY ATTENTION! When a stock reclaims the 8 & 21 day MA’s with authority, PAY ATTENTION! – @reddogt3 Click to Tweet This Tip from Scott Redler! How I Use the 8 & 21 Day Moving Averages to Manage Market ExposureYou just saw how a big break above the 8 & 21 day moving averages can mean a big move higher. Now let me show you how I use the 8 & 21 day moving averages to get less aggressive, or even bearish. I have two primary approaches to the market: a Portfolio Approach and a Tactical Approach When the SPY is trending above the 8 & 21 day moving averages, I am in a Portfolio Approach. I’ll usually have 4-12 long positions in stocks showing relative strength, and occasionally even more. When the SPY breaks the 8 & 21 day moving averages, I get in a Tactical Approach. I start taking profits, especially with weaker names, and I may even put on SPY or IWM hedges. Portfolio Approach SPY above the 8 & 21 day Long w/ 4-12 positions on No hedge unless we get extendedTactical Approach SPY breaks the 8 & 21 day Start taking profits Hedge with SPY/IWM shortPop Quiz!Here’s a chart of the SPY with its 8 & 21 day moving averages:As you can see, it reclaimed the 8 & 21 day moving averages with force. After that happened, would it be better to be long multiple stocks? Or short the market? Click here for the answer! Long!! It would be better to be long, because the SPY made an aggressive move above the 8 & 21 day. That’s a sign the bulls were retaking control. And as you can see a huge rally ensued! P.S. That was the post-election rally, when the market skyrocketed after some initial volatility. Like the Brexit, the post-election headlines were scary… but the price action was awfully bullish. A Final Tip on Stock SelectionYou’ve already learned how to use the 8 & 21 day moving averages to detect a change in trend, and how to use them for portfolio adjustments. I’m going to give you a final lesson in handling momentum stocks… specifically, how not to get run over by one! If you take one lesson away from this article, it’s this: NEVER short a stock that shows momentum above the 8 & 21 day moving averages. NEVER short a stock that shows momentum above the 8 & 21 day moving averages – @reddogt3 Click to Tweet This Tip from Scott Redler! This is most true with controversial momentum names. Take Tesla (TSLA). In late 2016, the headlines were pretty rough:But as you know, the price action is more important than the headlines. Tesla reclaimed the 8 & 21 day moving averages, and rode the 8 day up from $190 to $287+.No matter what the headlines and fundamentals are saying, you never want to short stocks like this. I’ve seen a lot of traders fall in love
Continue Reading -->Chef Scott Redler Shares His Secret Turkey Recipe
Family + friends + food + football + fitness (say that 10 times quick!) makes Thanksgiving one of my favorite holidays. And believe it or not, I’m pretty handy in the kitchen. I cook like I trade, and I trade like I cook. I keep things simple, and I go with what works. I’ve been using this turkey recipe since my parents moved to Florida 14 years ago, and it’s what I’ll be serving my family on Thursday afternoon. Ingredients List Turkey 3-4 long celery sticks 2 sticks of butter 2 oranges 3-4 lemons 2 sticks of butter 4 whole onions 3 big hunks of garlic Salt Pepper Paprika Ms. Dash seasoning 1 can of pineapples 1 jar of orange or apricot jam The quantity of ingredients depends on the size of your turkey. Just scale up or down as you see fit. We usually get a frozen 20-pounder. And oh yeah — make sure you have a quality knife! It will make your life a lot easier. I’ll take the bird out of the freezer Monday morning so it will be defrosted by Wednesday evening, when I do my prep work. You know me. Whether I’m trading, running, or cooking, I never show up for battle unprepared. If you start getting things ready before Thanksgiving, you’ll get better results with less stress on Thanksgiving… just like in trading! I’ll dice up 4 whole onions and 3 big hunks of garlic, and toss them in a large bowl. I then add salt, pepper, paprika, some Mrs. Dash seasoning, and mix it all up. Then, I’ll stuff it into the turkey. I’ll also put half a can of pineapples in there, and jam a stick of butter right in the middle of all. Then, I pour some orange juice and lemon juice over the turkey skin — just enough to get it wet. In a separate bowl, I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika for the skin. I spread it all over, making sure to get in all the nooks and crevices. Don’t be cheap! Then, I’ll wrap the turkey in a big bag and leave it in the refrigerator overnight. On Thanksgiving morning, I’ll cut a few long celery sticks in half and put them on the bottom of the pan. Then, I take the turkey out of the bag and place it on the pan. There will be a lot of juice in the bag. Transfer it to the bottom of the pan, and be careful not to spill any. It’s a real pain to clean up! Then I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika, and sprinkle it on top of the turkey. Now it’s time to stick the bird in the oven. After an hour, start basting it every 15-20 minutes. Take juices from the cavity and squeeze it on top of the turkey. Also, rotate the pan every hour or so. It should take about 4 hours to cook. Just follow what your meat thermometer says. When there is about 20 minutes to go, pour a jar of orange or apricot jam in a bowl, and add a softened stick of butter to it. Mix it together, and brush the turkey with it. Stick the turkey back in, but keep a close eye on it. We want a nice crispy skin, but we don’t want to burn it. Once the turkey’s done, take it out and let it sit for an hour before you carve it. By the way, if you’re not experienced in the art of carving up a turkey, this video will help you get it right and impress your family: Delay your carving as long as you can — turkey tastes best just when it’s cut! If you give this recipe a shot, take a picture, post it on Twitter, and tag me (@reddogT3) so I can see it! Have a great week, and an even better Thanksgiving!
Continue Reading -->The Red Dog’s Roadmap
The SPX futures are up 2 ahead of the Fed this afternoon. It has been a methodical move since clearing the descending channel above 2430 to take out 2453 before making a new all-time high at 2481. Now we’ll look to see if the active bulls stay in control with upper support at 2464 and yesterday’s low at 2474. IWM gave another calculated entry Monday after it reclaimed $142.25 and cleared $143.55 to hit a hgih of $144.25. It will need to hold $143.21 to keep active bulls happy and, if it can, extend another day towards a target of $145. XLE is trying to stay relevant as some are long vs the $64.50 stop while others want to see if hold the 50day of $65.86. IBB has its first bearish engulfing candle in a while and I did tweet that I sold around $329.50. After this move from $310, some digestion makes sense. Look for banks to be in play on fed day as JPM had a nice 2 day move. If it is able to hold the $92 area, I will be looking for it to make a move towards all-time highs in the days ahead.
Continue Reading -->Red Dog Rules Volume 1: Facebook’s Journey to $150
One half of life is luck; the other half is discipline – and that’s the important half, for without discipline you wouldn’t knowwhat to do with your luck.-Carl Zuckmayer Welcome to the first edition of Red Dog Rules, an all-new trading and technical analysis video series by Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. You’re going to learn how Scott attacks the market through real-world case studies and tutorials so you can take your trading to the next level. To Scott, trading is a marathon. It’s not a sprint. That’s why he takes a practical, rules-based approach to the market. Markets change, stocks change, and sectors change. But one thing remains the same — the importance of staying disciplined and grounded.In fact, the most successful traders focus on reducing risk above else. Why? Because one major mistake can knock you out of the game for good. In this edition, Scott gives you an in-depth look at one of the hottest stocks in the market, social media giant Facebook (FB): Watch this video and learn:Why the biggest risk you can take in the market is NOT participatingThe dangers of being lured in by the bears’ negative stories, like the claim that Facebook was set to lose 80% of its users by 2017The technical analysis signals that told Scott Facebook was ready to rockScott’s 3 favorite moving averages rulesHow the cup & handle pattern worksP.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Scott’s video on his favorite trading strategy — the Red Dog Reversal — below!
Continue Reading -->FREE Preview: Redler All-Access
Welcome to your FREE preview of T3 Live’s Redler All-Access newsletter. Redler All-Access gives you a complete trading plan from T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler, whose technical analysis expertise is frequently sought by CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg and more. Below, you’ll read a complete edition of the Redler All-Access Morning Note, which gives thousands of traders from across the globe their daily game plan. You’ll also view Scott’s extended Morning Call video. Today’s 23-minute edition, spanning 23 minutes, includes actionable analysis of 20+ charts including SPX, SPY, FAS, GS, JPM, FB, AAPL, NVDA, and NTES. But first, please click the video screen to get a quick introduction to Scott’s approach to the market: Health CheckMarch 20, 2017 Morning Call Video (click the screen to watch) Please Note: this video is NOT the same as the free Morning Call Express video Scott publishes daily. The Morning Call Express is a brief 5-7 minute look at the action. The Morning Call included with Redler All-Access is over 20 minutes long, with much more extensive analysis of stocks and ETF’s primed to move. By Scott RedlerWe have mixed markets to start the week with a bit of a cautious tone.In Europe, the DAX and CAC are -0.3% with the FTSE -0.2%.In Asia, the Nikkei is on holiday. The Shanghai is +0.4% and the Hang Seng is +0.8%.The G20 meeting had a protectionist tone.Last week was an interesting one as the Fed raised rates. There was a bit of a debate on whether Fed Chair Janet Yellen was dovish or hawish.The markets tried to resume the rally but didn’t have much power.SPX ignited above the 2373 area to make a lower high and it’s right back there. If we get a hard break below that pivot, the bears could point to a double top with a “train tracks”-type breakout failure. But we’ll see what happens.On Friday, I was away at a wedding and all my tight upper-level stops got hit. So I will see if we get better entries, or if things turn to more of a waiting game. Let’s stay light on our toes.Tech still holds up best. Small caps are trying to hold the 50 day. Energy is already back below the 200 day. The banks and bios did show a little relative weakness late last week.The biggest event this week is Thursday’s House floor vote on Ryan’s healthcare bill.If this doesn’t pass, questions will be raised about GOP tax reforms. Things could be quiet until then. SPY went ex-dividend so pricing is a bit odd. We’ll use SPX for better levels. Friday’s SPY low is $237.03. 2377 is the SPX low. If that doesn’t get reclaimed, 2370-2373 (the 8 & 21 day) is the next important intermediate support spot.Small caps held up a bit better late last week. We’ll see if that continues. IWM’s 50 day support is $136.60. Use that if you’re trying to be long. If it breaks it, be careful because it could be time to flip short. Friday’s low is $137.31.Bios lost some momentum as AMGN got hit very hard on bad news. IBB needs to prove it can hold above $293.57. Like a lot of traders, I got stopped out last Thursday. It’s now below the 8/21day. If this breaks and closes below Friday’s lows, it could fade back into the base with the 50 day down near $286.Banks didn’t rally on Wednesday when markets reacted positively to the Fed. Then on Friday, many names dragged the indices lower. I would love to see these names touch the 50 day for test longs after getting stopped out last week.FAS has the 50 day at $49.90. Friday’s low is $47.18.JPM has the 50day at $88.29, Friday’s low is $90.65.GS has the 50 day at $243. Friday’s low is $243.86.BAC has the 50 day at $23.84. Friday’s low is $24.83.We’ll see if they hit these levels and stay below, or reclaim Friday’s lows. JPM is a good indicator to watch.GS had a ugly candle Friday. Tech still acts best. QQQ is still above the 8 day. We need to see if that continues. The 8 day is $131.62. The 21 day is $130.80. If tech starts to weaken, perhaps markets weaken a bit. If these upper moving averages hold, it will be hard for the bears to growl too loudly. NFLX finally woke up again. It cleared $142 and hit a high of $146.50. Now it needs to hold $143.40 to build again for another potential new high.AMZN is very tight and out of play but it’s holding right under breakout levels. Some are long vs. $247. It would need a high-volume breakout above $857, then $860 to wake up.GOOGL made new all-time highs last week. It’s been grinding along the 8 day without much power. Now see if it holds $864 to clear $874.42 again.FB broke above our $140 target. It’s been riding the 8 day higher since January when it reclaimed all moving averages. Now the 8 day is $139.14 with the all-time high at $140.34.TSLA was a nice new trade for us from last week. It ignited above the $248 lower pivot area and hit $265.75 Thursday. Now see if it holds $259ish to form a new flag for more upside. I Tweeted to Redler All-Access that I turned some of the calls into a spread.Some Chinese names act well:BABA has been very choppy but hit a high of $106.50 Friday before pulling in a bit. Now, if it holds the $104 area, it can stay in the game to grind towards $110+. Some are long vs. the earnings gap.NTES has been consolidating its post-earnings move and came back to test the gap. We can be long vs. $278. See if it clears and holds $292 to get back towards all-time highs.MOMO cleared its base on big earnings. It held above $30 and is back towards the highs. Now see if it holds $34.01 to keep upper momentum.Other tech:AAPL has been rising above the 8 day all of 2017. It had an ugly candle
Continue Reading -->Blast from the Past: T3 Live Featured in Documentary by China’s CCTV-2
On September 22, 2010, CCTV-2, the business channel of China’s state broadcaster, aired the first installment of “Wall Street”, a 10-part documentary covering all angles of New York’s famed business landmark. The documentary surveys several angles of the finance world, including major media outlets, big banks, and T3 traders including Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler, who appeared in the first episode. ‘China’s first finance documentary’ took 800 hours of footage and three years to make, and ranks among the most expensive documentaries CCTV has ever produced. The producers, directors and cameramen were all involved in CCTV’s award-winning documentary series Rise of the Great Powers, Capital Market, and Water Cries. The series speaks not only to the history of Wall Street, but also reveals the transformation of global capital markets over the past 200 years. T3Live.com was strategically chosen for the first installment of the series to represent the new generation of Wall Street: young, vibrant, innovative, technology driven and committed to bringing transparency to the markets. During the two-week intensive filming period, CCTV’s crew got a first-hand look at the inner workings of the company, and came away impressed with T3 Live’s mission and ability to empower the individual investor through its comprehensive trading education website at T3Live.com. In China, interest in trading the US markets has grown considerably, and now Chinese individuals will have access top professionals trading the markets every day, in real time.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: 2017 Starts with Green Arrows. Do They Stick?
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler welcomes us to the New Year. Scott starts things off by looking at the EWG and the big resistance level it is coming up to test and how it compares to the FXI. He also looks at the SPX and QQQ and where they will be opening the new year. Scott also reviews some high beta tech names as well.
Continue Reading -->Happy New Year!
We have mixed/quiet markets around the world as we close out the year. Europe is flattish and has a very tight pattern. It looks ready to rally. We’ve been long EWG calls in RAA since the Italian Referendum, and EWG/FEZ look like they’ll give more gains. In Asia, the landscape is a little different. The Nikkei had a big run and needs to digest. The Hang Seng has been choppy to the downside, though it was up 1.0%. The Shanghai was up +0.4%, but it needs time to show its hand. SPX futures are up 4-5 handles. Yesterday, most sectors hit new weekly lows but rallied back a bit to close off the lows. We saw a few Red Dog Reversals as some sectors traded below Wednesday’s lows and reclaimed them Thursday by day’s end. I’m not sure what today brings. The action may depend on whether we have any leftover rebalancing to work through. At this point, there are multiple scenarios to consider for the New Year. We’ve seen a little give on the post-Trump Trade, but not much. The USD came in a bit and Treasuries rallied. Some strong sectors tested the 21 day and held. Do new funds come in the first five days and drive the indices to new highs fast? Do traders book gains to push taxes out to 2018? Do some January effect-type trades take place in beaten-down names and sectors? We will have scenario A, B, and C. Whatever you do today, don’t let it ruin your holiday. Just focus on starting 2017 on the wrong foot. There will be more than enough time to figure out new relationships, correlations, etc. as the first few days develop. For today, see if the upside gap holds or gets sold. SPX has 2242 as pivot support for today and to start the year. If this holds, it would bring in new money to lift stocks in January. If they hit stocks fast in January, the important level will be the prior breakout area at 2193-2210. If they buy them fast, the first level to clear and hold above is 2262ish with the high of the range at 2277. A close above this and the door to 2325 opens for the first quarter. SPY put a low in at $223.84 yesterday. That will be your pivot support for today and to start the year. If they hit them fast, this needs to get taken out with a close below the 21 day. Then perhaps it can see $220ish. For today, see if SPY holds yesterday’s high of $224.89. For the bulls to come out quick in January, they need a trade and hold above $226.30 as the first step. Then the high of the range is $228.34. A close above this in the first few days of the year and the door to $232.50 is open. I will have a very extensive note to start the year on Tuesday morning as a lot can change between now and that open. For today, keep it light and get ready for the holiday and get your head ready for 2017. Remember, your time frame matters. Have a long-term plan with a 401k/403b/IRA/529 because over the long run, the bull market wins. But to participate, you must have a process that works for you. Never invest and live above your means. If you swing trade and trade for a living that’s different. It takes a routine, time, and commitment to a process. Combine that with discipline and humility, and you can win. Most importantly, live life and enjoy the time you have with your family and friends. A little fitness doesn’t hurt either. Don’t sweat the small stuff as it ends up being meaningless when you’re faced with the big things. Thanks for being a part of my community. Having friends like you on my team gave me a mission instead of a job. Happy New Year!
Continue Reading -->Daily Recap: The Last Mile is the Hardest
In today’s Daily Recap, Scott Redler and special guest Lulu take a look at the action today which may have caught some by surprise. He also talks about how he navigated today in light of coming into today mostly long.
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