All posts by Scott Redler
Can Apple Stay Special and Go Again?
Apple (AAPL) has been great to the Redler All-Access community. It gave us time to buy after earnings and hit a high of $208.74 on Friday. Now, it would be good to sit over $205.48 for a session or so to create a flag-type pattern. That could keep it special to possibly go again.Amazon (AMZN) didn’t have enough power to hold and go after earnings. If the market is going to be strong, it will need leaders like this one. To act special and help things, it needs to hold $1801 and perhaps $1841. Above $1841 could bring momentum back.Google (GOOGL) was a great options/earnings play. It put in a high at $1292 before tech came under pressure. If it can hold $1229ish, perhaps it gets tight enough to clear $1246-$1253 to get back in play. But it will need big volume.
Continue Reading -->How Apple Can Stay Special After Earnings
Apple (AAPL) had a solid earnings report across the board and gave time to buy after hours around $194-$196. It cleared that and is at $198+ this morning. I trimmed some but will stay with some. We’ll see if the momentum stays. To keep it special, it has to stay above $196.Facebook (FB) has a huge hole in its chart post-earnings. On Monday, it broke $173 to hit a low of $166.56. Yesterday, it held above the low and I got long. Today, I’ll see if it holds $170ish for one more push above $174.24. But it’s hard to add on strength.QQQ held the 50 day Monday for an oversold bounce. Now we need to see if it builds. Bigger resistance is in the $178.50 area. Watch AAPL to see if it holds and builds, or sells down — that will tell us a lot about sentiment.
Continue Reading -->Apple Earnings on Deck: These are the Levels to Watch
Apple (AAPL) reports after the close today and as you know, it’s an important one to watch. There aren’t many names breaking out and holding to the upside, so the report needs to be super special. I have $190 calls on, which I might take off since there will be a decent premium baked in. But we’ll see. To keep momentum after hours, it needs to get and stay above $195-$196. If it misses, there is some support at $180ish, and then there’s the 200 day at $175.35.Amazon (AMZN) gapped up and couldn’t hold its momentum level of $1858-$1863. Then it sold down. Yesterday it started up and then was sold under $1805 to hit a low of $1766. Today it’s up again. See if it holds or if the same pattern continues. It’s important for tech psychology so keep an eye on it.
Continue Reading -->Where AMZN and AAPL Need to Hold Now
On Friday, Amazon (AMZN) gapped up and couldn’t hold the $1858-$1863 momentum level. It sold down. Now it’s up a bit this morning. This name is important to watch moving forward. Does it hold the $1805 area? Or will there be follow-up selling to hurt high-beta tech psychology?Apple (AAPL) tried to have a pre-earnings run but it sold down on Friday. Earnings are Tuesday after the close and I have calls on. I’m not looking to add. We’ll see how it reacts into the print. A move over $196 after earnings would help tech, but that’s a lot to ask for. SPX futures are -2. It’s hard to tell if the weakness in growth names will hurt the S&P. Today, we’ll see if we hold Friday’s low at 2808. But really, as long as we hold 2795ish, we can’t get too bearish. But it’s still a very specific type of trading action. Bios and small caps lost momentum, and lots of high-beta tech stocks are in the penalty box. AAPL earnings will be important.
Continue Reading -->Netflix in Pain: Why I Don’t Take Stock Into Earnings
SPX futures are -4 as we see many F.A.N.G.-type names and other tech stocks getting hit on NFLX’ revenue and subscriber miss. The analysts had it right last week when they started talking down the sub estimates. Super high P/E stocks can’t go up 100%+ and then miss earnings. This situation is exactly why I don’t take stock into earnings. I use options since the risk is premium paid. I have no position and I’m proceeding carefully. It might be best to wait until tomorrow to see today’s candle to make a fresh plan. Let’s see if it puts in a 5-15-30-60 minute low. $343-$345 is an area to watch, and there is a big level to watch at $338ish.Since we’re talking F.A.N.G. names, yesterday I said this about AMZN: “If I was long it, I’d consider trimming because it’s a little extended here.” AMZN closed on the lows and it’s down with NFLX today. See if it holds $1795. If not, the 8 day is all the way down at $1763.Now let’s turn to the SPX. Futures are -5 as tech is under pressure from NFLX. Today, let’s see if we hold 2791. That could be difficult. If we break and say below, we have the 8 day at 2780ish, and then 2761 is a huge level. If NFLX can rally off a low, that may help things. Also, see if some flows go to banks or energy to help mute the weakness.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: What If the Analysts Are Wrong About Netflix?
Last week, I got stopped out in NFLX when it lost upper momentum at the $411 area. The stock is up 100% this year, and a few analysts are worried about European sub numbers causing a miss. I’m approaching this one cautiously. Today, let’s see how it handles the $395 pivot. Today, let’s see how it handles the $395 pivot. And after the earnings report hits, if the analysts are wrong and NFLX beats, $419-$423 is key resistance to clear. If the report is light, see how it handles the $380 area, or the 50 day down at $365. I’m watching potential options plays, but I’ll probably wait until around the close to do anything.HUYA is a very active name that’s been a favorite of RAA readers. Now, see if it holds $36.25 to keep momentum and stay special. BABA lost some momentum this past month on all the trade banter. It now has a lower-level wedge type pattern building. $189.30 is pivot support. To get some strength back, it has to get above $192.12. It’s a good name to watch for clues.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Is SPX 2800 on Tap? Tech May Hold the Answer
Can the SPX hit the 2800 mark again? Tech may hold the clues. The QQQ still acts well. $175.80 is our new pivot support to watch. A strong move and close over $178 could mean a charge to SPX 2800.Now let’s take another look at a IQ, a name we’ve focused on in the past few months. It came down from $46.23 to $30.20 and it’s trying to rebuild. I’m long a bit overnight. If it can get and say above $32-$32.40, it should open the door for a move to the $34 area and possible more.Now let’s look at IBB. IBB had a Red Dog Reversal on 6/28 and it has acted well very since then. Last Friday, it had a big pro gap on the BIIB news. And now it has a pretty impressive high-level bull flag. A move and hold above $117 can take it back to 2018 highs.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Can Netflix Stay Super Special?
Netflix (NFLX) still has best in breed status, but today we’ll really see if it can stay super special. To stay that way, it has to hold the $411 area. If not, it can hit $408 to fill the gap. I’ll be watching it closely on the open to see if it’s buyable.We’ll see if tech can help today after a move back to all-time highs. QQQ $175.80 is upper support. If this holds, the downside will be muted. If not, the $174 area will be key to watch. Tech will give us clues on the market so be mindful here.The President is pushing for tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, just as the SPX hit big resistance at 2800. Thank goodness this came after markets were up for 4-5 sessions and overbought, giving us signals to ligten up. Now we’ll see what areas hold for possible new longs. Holding 2760ish would be very constructive to hold for the next few sessions. We can’t rule out the 2745 area — under that and the active bulls lose control. Watch the small caps and tech today to see if they help pull the market off the lows.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Why I’m Not Crazy About This Open
On Friday, Apple (AAPL) reclaimed all moving averages on Friday as it cleared the $188 area. Yesterday, it hit a high of $190.68. See if it holds the gap pivot of $189.30 to keep some active upper commitment.As I said, on Thursday, tech gave clues that markets could be bought. QQQ’s cleared the lower-level pivot and filled the gap above $174 to show some power on Friday. Now see if it can hold $175.74 to work its way back towards $177.98.And let’s talk about Netflix (NFLX) since we focused on it so much last week. This was my favorite pattern. It broke above $400 and hit a high of $408.65 Friday, and today it’s up another $7. I trimmed some and will manage the rest. It’s in the game to hit all-time highs but might need to digest first.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: The Power of a Blown Right Shoulder
Last Thursday, tech and small caps gave clues that it was maybe time to “cheat long” heading into Friday’s jobs number and the institution of tariffs. Turns out traders sold the rumors and bought the actual news Friday. The right shoulder of what could have been a H&S pattern blew out to help ignite the upside. The index has room towards 2800 this week but I’m looking to be in trim & trail mode today.As I said, on Thursday, tech gave clues that markets could be bought. QQQ’s cleared the lower-level pivot and filled the gap above $174 to show some power on Friday. Now see if it can hold $175.74 to work its way back towards $177.98.And let’s talk about Netflix (NFLX) since we focused on it so much last week. This was my favorite pattern. It broke above $400 and hit a high of $408.65 Friday, and today it’s up another $7. I trimmed some and will manage the rest. It’s in the game to hit all-time highs but might need to digest first.
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