All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler: Netflix Puts on a Great Show, Let’s Keep Watching
On Monday, I said Netflix (NFLX) is one to watch now, and that “To keep its ‘go to’ status, it has to reclaim $390.55 in a sea of red.” It’s been choppy lately, but reclaimed that level and stairstepped with higher lows each day this week:It was on the stronger side this morning and is very tight. The stock hit a high of $405.60 to put me in trim & trail mode on my long. Even if you don’t trade NFLX, watch it because it can give clues on what’s next for tech and the markets overall. We’ve been able to buy vs. support but not add higher. If NFLX can stay above $400, perhaps it opens the door up for more momentum.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Netflix Is One to Watch Now
Netflix (NFLX) is a key name to watch now. It put in an island top with a few lower highs, which has us feeling more cautious. To keep its ‘go to’ status, it has to reclaim $390.55 in a sea of red. If not, I’d be careful because we have the 21 day at $382 below. If that doesn’t hold, it wouldn’t be good for tech and market psychology. Let’s turn to the QQQ’s. Tech was the place to be for most of the year. There were more reasons to be more cautious since there is an unfilled bear gap and 21 day resistance. Let’ see if new flows can come in to relieve the pressure. Last week’s low is the $169 area. Do we make a higher low? Revisit that low? Or break it this week? Be ready for each scenario with a plan.China is still a problem with the Shanghai 20% off the highs. Most of Europe is below the 200 day. There could be a mini Head & Shoulders pattern developing. So 2691-2700 will be key for this week. See if high-beta tech gets flows to help the morning weakness, and if third-quarter flows and typical holiday upside can relieve some pressure.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: When Signs of Trouble Add Up
I came in leaning short today for the first time in quite while. The bearish signals really started adding up last week. Last Thursday, I told Redler-All Access readers: We’ve had great action in tech, F.A.N.G. names, small caps and bios.But banks, other sectors, and overseas markets are a bit of a drag. It makes me wonder how long things can last. So I’ve cut my long exposure and I’m trying to be a bit more selective after a great move from the May 3-4 Red Dog Reversal low and igniting bar. It’s harder to find tight setups. I’m not saying we will crash but I’m tapping the brakes. I followed up this past Monday: Last Monday, I came in with 15-20 swing longs and options positions. Last week, I saw lots of signs to get flexible so I’m coming in lighter today. Yesterday, I told CNBC “the small caps for the first time in a while are weaker than other sectors. It’s giving traders some signs to pare down risk. And today, I came in with 2 equity shorts (NVDA which I covered premarket, and FB) Here’s how I’m viewing the action today. Today, I want to see how the market handles 2698. Do the sellers break that for an air pocket towards 2650? Or is there a Red Dog Reversal long opportunity?Tech became vulnerable last week with QQQ losing the 8/21 day. Then it got rejected on the rally back. Now let’s see how it handles the $169.61 pivot. $167 is bigger support below.FB’s lower high and Red Dog Reversal sell signal got me short yesterday. I want to see if it continues toward the 21 day. Yesterday’s low is $195.80. It’s below that premarket. Let’s see if it stays below.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: GOOGL Blasts to Record Highs
GOOGL’s done pretty well in the past few days with a big trip from $1085 this past month. I’ve been focused pretty heavily on it. This morning, I posted this chart saying that now it seems like it can see $1200+ if it gets and stays above $1185. As of 10:15 a.m ET, GOOGL is around $1196 and still looks good.FB has acted well since its power earnings gap. Yesterday it held the $194 area. If it continues, it seems like it will take out the $199.58 recent high to see $200+.Since we’re talking tech, let’s check out the QQQ’s. Today, let’s see if it holds $176. If not, it’s back to the choppiness.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Breaking Down the Google Breakout
GOOGL’s done pretty well in the past few days with a quick trip from $1160ish up to the $1183 area. Let’s break down the levels along the way, In my Morning Note on Thursday, June 14, I said: “GOOGL had a decent move from last Friday’s low of $1125 back to a high of $1155.64 before retracing lower. I’d like to see it hold $1138ish. If it does, it could make another attempt to take out $1160 in the sessions ahead.” As you can see in the chart I made that day, it then put in a high at $1161:Then I wanted to see if $1150ish would hold. GOOGL Invested in JD, and I wanted to see if that could help GOOGL get and stay above the $1165 trendline:Then, GOOGL broke above $1170 — a nice little move. It actually closed at $1183.58 on Monday. As of Tuesday morning, I’m still long and I want to see the $1160 area hold. That would make it easier to stay in and possibly add if the market doesn’t fall apart.
Continue Reading -->A Dropbox Full of Cash: DBX Breaks to New Highs After Clearing Important Levels
Dropbox (DBX) hit a record high Monday morning at $43.50. I sold my long into the strength, but let’s go back and reverse engineer the rally, level by level. Last Wednesday, I said this in my Morning Note: “DBX has had many false starts. We’ll see if this one is better. Bulls want it to continue above $31 and hold that level.” That $31 level was Tuesday’s high, as you can see on this chart:.. It managed to get above $31, touching $31.90. That made $34 – the IPO reaction high — a big spot to watch. Then I said: DBX was on the stronger side again yesterday. It had a decent Day #1 Tuesday and cleared $31 yesterday. There’s a big base, and if it can clear $31.90, there could be a real move to the post-IPO highs near $34.83. Now let’s look at the “After” chart: As you can see, DBX cut thorough $31 like a knife through butter on Wednesday. And on Thursday, it gapped above the descending trendline to pass the post-IPO highs near $34.83. As i write this, it’s over $36. Then on Monday, DBX opened up green and power higher. I sold my position into the morning strength.The stock hit a high of $43.50 – wow. The lesson: keep an eye on post-IPO highs and lows. They are very important pivots for judging action, and sometimes signal follow-through because they create F.O.M.O. (Fear of Missing Out) for traders that worry about getting left behind. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Dropbox Creates F.O.M.O., Teaches a Key Technical Analysis Lesson
Dropbox (DBX) is making a huge move today. Let’s reverse engineer the rally. On Wednesday, I said this in my Morning Note: “DBX has had many false starts. We’ll see if this one is better. Bulls want it to continue above $31 and hold that level.” That $31 level was Tuesday’s high, as you can see on this chart: .. It managed to get above $31, touching $31.90. That made $34 – the IPO reaction high — a big spot to watch. And today, I said : DBX was on the stronger side again yesterday. It had a decent Day #1 Tuesday and cleared $31 yesterday. There’s a big base, and if it can clear $31.90, there could be a real move to the post-IPO highs near $34.83. Now let’s look at the “After” chart: As you can see, DBX cut thorough $31 like a knife through butter on Wednesday. And today, it gapped above the descending trendline to pass the post-IPO highs near $34.83. As i write this, it’s over $36. The lesson: keep an eye on post-IPO highs and lows. They are very important pivots for judging action, and sometimes signal follow-through because they create F.O.M.O. (Fear of Missing Out) for traders that worry about getting left behind. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Can Tesla Drive Away to $360?
Tesla (TSLA) has been a real battleground stock lately. Last week it had a big day on volume, clearing $301 and then the $310 area. On Monday morning, I said “f it holds the $317 area, volume could come in to clear last week’s high.” Well, volume came in and it hit $354.66. Wow! It could use a few days off. But if it can flag above the $338 area and let the moving averages catch up, maybe it can take out $360.Facebook (FB) had a lot of news about privacy/data issues last week. It had a Red Dog Reversal around the 21 day on Friday. It got a nice push in the past few sessions. If it can hold the $192 area, perhaps it clears the $195 area. Tech was at new highs and then sold down a bit after the Fed with a small topping tail. QQQ hit a high of $177.14. We’ll see if we get more follow-down selling. As long as it holds the 8 day, it can stay special. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Can Netflix Put on a Good Show?
Netflix (NFLX) was the first high-beta tech name to really break out and tell us the market could have some power. Today, it got a huge price target bump from Goldman. If it can stay above $369.83, it can show some power and create F.O.M.O. (fear of missing out) in names like AMZN, GOOGL, and FB. The bears want the NFLX strength to get sold, so let’s keep an eye on it.The banks are always in focus on Fed Day. I’m in Bank of America (BAC) and I want to see the $29.75 area to hold. It’s right around that now, and I want to see how the Fed affects it. Biotech’s still in focus so let’s look at IBB, which I’m long as of this morning. It cleared $107.80 and $110.10 to hit a high of $111.29. Now I’m going to see if it can hold $109.50 to keep the stair step move higher intact. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live: Learn About the Active Trader Summit.
Continue Reading -->Red Dog’s New Dogs: NTNX, BSTI, SOGO
Many people think all I trade and watch is big cap tech, but nothing could be further from the truth. I have a lot of tech names on my regular Go To List, but I’m always on the lookout for new names to add to my radar screen. Nutanix (NTNX) is name that just came back on my radar screen. In today’s Redler All-Acccess Morning Note, I said “NTNX still looks good. It’s getting tight. The bulls want a strong move above $57.40.” And as you can see on my chart, I said the next real level to clear is $60:As you can see on the 5 minute chart, NTNX broke through $57.40 with authority and then cleared $60. Wow! Best Inc. (BSTI) is another new name for me. I bought some yesterday and will consider adding on a very strong close above the $13.25 area. Sogou (SOGO) is another interesting name I nibbled on. I would get to know it, because it has a shot at working its way back to the post-IPO highs around the $14.70 area. P.S. For the first time ever, Scott’s teaching his unique method of game planning that could be your answer to trading frustration. And it’s going down live.
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