Category Archives for Scott Redler Dog Bytes
Blood on the Street?
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. We have mostly red arrows around the world as the correction continues. Nvidia’s (NVDA) CES bounce was sold, and then the SPX lost the 8/21 day around 5960ish. Futures are -50 as we see if we make an active low in the first hour or if we see a trend down day. Higher rates are turning into a big headwind for equities, which is why I’ve been urging you to watch TLT. On Friday morning, Power Plays closed out all our longs, so we avoided the carnage this morning. You can sign up here to know when the next idea goes out. On Friday, the oscillator was -40ish, so this morning we are very oversold and it’s not the time to press shorts. Many are asking me about the BOS account. The SPX 5650ish area would be 7%+ off highs and a spot where I might put the first tier to work. We’ll see. These first two names are a big focus for me today: TSLA: the Red Dog Reversal sell around $484 feels like years ago. We then had a lower high at $465, and then the bounce into the $426 area was rejected. Selling puts the last two weeks worked a bit. I am still short $360 puts. On Friday, it showed a little relative strength and I’m looking for a signal to buy. META is tricky but could benefit from a TikTok ban, which looks like it will happen. Watch it today. Friday’s low is $597. It’s way above that. When this market finds a bottom, this might be best in breed so it should be on the radar. AMZN lost potential special status when it broke the $224 area. Now it’s only a tactical trade until the market finds its footing. $216.50 is Friday’s low. I’ll look for an opportunity this morning. The 50-day is right under. AAPL broke $257ish to get most active longs more tactical as it was super extended into late December. It broke the 8-day to confirm our tactical approach prior. I tried it into the 50-day Friday and lost money when it hit the $233 area. I’ll see if it holds above that today. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Focus on Execution First, Money Second If you get good at anything, the money’s going to come eventually. So focus on developing your skills and properly executing the strategies you learn. That’s what’s going to keep you in the game for the long run. Fast money leaves just as fast as it arrived. You want to develop a set of trading strategies that can give you consistent profits, no matter what’s happening in the market. Once your brain gets big, your wallet follows. This Week’s Calendar We have a busy week ahead with PPI, CPI, plus some key earnings reports from the big banks. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-13 at 8.08.10 AM
Continue Reading -->Nvidia #1 – But for How Long?
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. SPX futures are +30 after Friday gave us clues to put on more risk. The leaders leaders acted well and the SPX took back the 50-day. The neckline near 5832-5866 served as better support, and now we’ll see if they blow out the right shoulder with a strong close above the 6006 area. That would negate the bear case. I added NVDA to Power Plays on the open Friday after the stock regained leadership status. It’s the #1 Mag7 name to kick off the new year. And the game plan is to trim into this morning’s strength. CEO Jensen Huang is doing a keynote at CES tonight, but the stock’s already moved quite a bit. But I’ll be looking to buy weakness because I see more upside in the weeks ahead. AVGO still looks great. We highlighted it as a leader last week. And if markets continue higher, $251+ can happen in the days or weeks ahead. META had a decent close Friday. I have calls on, and it’s still a Power Plays name. Now we’ll see if it gets and stays above $611.50 to start a sequence higher. $616ish is above that. NFLX stopped out most active longs around $915 and hit a low of $877 last week. Not much to do here as it tries to figure out what’s next. It’s below the 8/21-day now, so it’s time to be tactical. I bought CCJ back after its corrective phase when gave it $51.60 to buy against. Now, we’ll see if it starts trading better. The first obstacle is to hold early gains and build. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-06 at 7.28.17 AM
Continue Reading -->This NVIDIA Level Is Key Right Now
LIMITED ENROLLMENT: Brought to You By Power Plays Options – Get My #1 Pick Each Week Registration closes soon. Do not miss this opportunity. We have a big divergence to start 2025. International stocks are under pressure while SPX futures are up. It will be important to see if early strength holds and builds, or if it fades. First resistance area is SPX 5929-5940. If it clears and holds, it will push the active bears back. Now let’s dig into some names: VAL finally triggered as a January effect name, so I’m glad we added it to Power Plays Options on December 30. It’s up about 2% this morning on a rise in oil prices. $46ish is some resistance. I’d look to trim and trail. NVDA has been range bound since the $149.76 Red Dog Reversal sell post-earnings. It hit $133 to close 2024. We’ll see how it reacts on Day #1 of 2025. Will early strength hold, or be sold? $138 is big resistance so keep that price on your radar. This is a key name that could affect the complexion of early 2025. AVGO showed relative strength to close 2024 so we need to see how it trades in early January. $238 is pivot resistance. $231 is big active support that I want to see remain intact. RDDT put in a small topping tail as it hit $182.20. For today, see if early strength holds or if profit takers come in. $162 is key upper support that needs to hold now. AMZN: after a big move from $202 to $233, it stopped many out as it broke below $226 to see the $218 area. For today, we’ll see if early strength gets faded or holds. See if it clears $223. LIMITED ENROLLMENT OPPORTUNITY Get Scott’s #1 options idea each week. Registration closes Sunday. Do not miss out your chance: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-02 at 7.53.59 AM
Continue Reading -->TLT Is the Boss Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Last Wednesday, the trade changed when the Fed gave a hawkish spin on next year, with 50bps of expect cuts vs. the 100 the market wanted. SPX broke 6030 so I lightened up on position size and quantity. In Power Plays, we exited TeraWulf (WULF), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Citigroup (C), and Apple (AAPL). Futures are flattish, and it’s hard to tell what will happen this week. I’m watching rates very closely because that’s what dictating sentiment. Equity markets don’t like when the 10-year yield makes new highs. TLT made a low of $87.50 last week. If it can hold above that this week, we have a shot at a bounce. If it breaks, we could be in trouble. So put that on your screen and watch it closely. Yes, we’ll keep tracking names like TSLA, AMZN, META, etc. — but when it comes to market direction, rates are the boss now. Now let’s get into some names. NVDA lost special status with the Red Dog Reversal on earnings day around the $149.76 pivot. We’ve had some range trades, but that’s all. Friday, it didn’t make a new weekly low and rallied hard. I did take some long vs. $126.80. I’ll trim and see if it builds. AVGO had a gap-and-go post-earnings and went to a high of $251+. Swing longs want it to hold $211ish. It was upgraded today. I’d be trimming. Pivot resistance is $228ish, then the post-earnings high at $251.88 could come into play. RDDT re-built fast as it was one of the few stocks that held the 8-day. Some are long vs. the $157 area. We’ll see if any high-growth stocks can make new highs this week. If so, this is a candidate. The first step is getting and staying above $174. Then $181 comes into play. I started buying OXY as a January Effect play a little early. News that Buffett added helped. I’d think it has room back to the $50 area or higher. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-12-23 at 9.32.29 AM
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Likes These Beaten-Down Dogs
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. Scott Redler appeared on ‘The Claman Countdown’ on Fox Business to discuss the market environment into the December 18 Fed Rate decision. Scott goes over: The problem with chasing performance in stocks like Tesla (TSLA) after huge post-election moves (a name Scott just exited in Power Plays) The 2024 progression of rotation that led to the Mag7 stocks taking over again Why traders don’t want to take profits on the leaders in December Why he’s eyeballing the Dow Jones Industrial Average The beaten-down stocks he likes right now Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-12-18 at 8.01.26 AM
Continue Reading -->Tesla $600? Too Soon to Say?
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. SPX futures are +15 handles as we kick off Fed week. We’ll see if SPX holds the 6030 area to consolidate for one more move up into year-end. Tech led the charge over the past few weeks. QQQ hit a high of $533 after the wedge pattern triggered above $511+. We’ll see if the 8-day holds as we look for new setups. $524 is support. It’s been a great run for the Mag7 (minus NVDA), which is why I’m glad we focused on AAPL, META, TSLA, and AMZN in Power Plays over the past month. Unfortunately, I did some profit-taking early, but we can’t be perfect on everything. TSLA was my #1 focus pre and post-election. And it’s the #3 SPX name in December with a 26% gain. There were so many awesome setups and it’s at $440+ this morning. I’d trim and trail. It’s hard to buy it today, but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy short. It can see $550-$600 next year so I’m looking for opportunities to reload. SMH is trying to get out of the danger zone. AVGO responded well to earnings. Some are optimistic about MU this week. SMH needs to hold $246ish, otherwise back towards $237-$238 it can go. NVDA has been lagging. And ever since the Red Dog Reversal sell post-earnings, it’s just been a range trade. Watch $131.80-$132.50. If that doesn’t hold, it might bring out sellers. AMD gave a tactical Red Dog Reversal at $127.07 last week and got negated fast. I’d avoid it. Since we are approaching year-end, the January effect is a big part of my strategy. The January Effect is when beaten down stocks and sectors rally into year-end after tax-loss selling gets exhausted, and sentiment gets extremely negative. In recent years, the January Effect has started earlier and earlier due to trader anticipation. Three of my favorite January Effect names this year are CELH, OXY, and VAL. Just be aware that you never know if/when these types of names wake up, so you have to watch your sizing carefully. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week Use Technicals: Not News Headlines and Economic Statistics As Your Guide to the Markets I earn my living trading, so price is the only thing that really matters. The news flow and macro trends are important, but not as much as actual market movement. Be aware of what’s going on in the world. Just take it all with a grain of salt. We make money by riding price movements — not by being trying to be ‘right’ about politics and the economy. Remember the Brexit or the 2016 US Presidential election? The news headlines said the world would end. The price action said otherwise — and the price action was right. Doomsday will hit sooner or later — but allow the market to tell us when. That’s why in Power Plays, we hunt for opportunities using trend analysis. This Week’s Calendar We have a busy week ahead with the Fed Rate Decision, Retail Sales, GDP, and more P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-12-16 at 8.05.56 AM
Continue Reading -->Tesla $500? My Opinion…
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Welcome to the latest edition of Dog Bytes! SPX futures are down -13 following today’s PPI report and a big post-CPI rally yesterday. It seems like a 25bp rate cut for 12/18 is guaranteed. But the language is something of a mystery. Europe is flattish, and China is up ahead of its stimulus conference. ADBE is down 10% after earnings while AVGO reports after the close. There is still lots of great action in Mag7 and Bitcoin, which have been a cornerstone in the Power Plays newsletter ($99 for 1 year) the past few months. But let’s talk about the big topic today… TSLA has been AWESOME with so many ways to play it. The last setup was when it held $348 to clear $362. Yesterday, it made a new all-time high. And this morning it hit $429.52! Of course, this has some asking if TSLA can hit $500. My answer is of course anything is possible — we could see more upside in the weeks ahead. But the real question is what do I do today? I want to be trimming TSLA here, not adding. And so we’re clear — I would not be looking to get short. SMH remains challenged. Every time it’s about to break down, it holds. $234 held and is our new point of reference. $247 is pivot resistance. Above that, and it looks more constructive to be long. AVGO reports after the close. NVDA reversed to the upside yesterday. It held above $133.80 to get it out of the danger zone. It still has to prove it can be special. It needs to clear and hold $141 to look better. PLTR had a monster move this year. Recently, it made a big topping bearish engulfing candle with a high of $80+. It’s looser and wider. Short-term, $68 needs to hold. RDDT rebuilt fast after a high of $180. As long as this holds $152ish, it looks good. CCJ broke $60.55 to get any active momentum traders out, then lost the 8-day to confirm weakness. Some might try longs vs. $55.78. It has a lot of work to do. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-12-12 at 9.45.53 AM
Continue Reading -->Tesla $400? Is It Time?
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. We have mixed markets around the world as China stands out with FXI +6%. The PBOC published a very dovish report with looser monetary policy and more forceful fiscal support. Here in the US, the Mag7 names have been the stars lately, which is why we’ve been so active in AAPL, META, TSLA, and AMZN in Power Plays the past month. Unfortunately, I took off Amazon way too early. AAPL: I’ve been buying dips the past few weeks as it rebuilt and worked higher. I focused on buying through $230 and $237 and it hit $244+ to manage. I sold my calls into strength. It’s been digesting a few days. If it breaks $241.25, we’ll see how it handles the 8 day. TSLA continues to reward longs for buying pre- and post-election. Last week, the strategy was to be long above $348 and add above $361. It’s at $395+ so I trimmed some this morning. If it holds higher, it could see the $414.50 all-time high from 2021. AMZN had a mega move to pay investors who sat through all the selling drama and split. It hit $227+ Friday. Active traders also did well through $202ish, and it’s acted very well since then. I sold last week and need to be patient now. META gave us a big move. I bought it around $590 and added when it cleared $603. it hit $629+ Friday to manage. I’m still in stock but sold my calls. We’ll see if it holds $619 now. NVDA is the subject of an anti-monopoly investigation in China which has it lower. See if it makes a low in the first 5-15-30-60 minutes or if it becomes a headwind today. $140.29 is an important spot, then the 50-day is below near $136. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Keep an Even Keel I don’t know what’s worse: having too much confidence or not enough. So don’t go overboard celebrating your trading wins. We want winning to be a normal day at the office — not special occasions that are so rare they’re worth celebrating! And don’t go overboard crying over your losses, because underconfidence will prevent you from executing on good trades. You have to accept that losing is part of the game. Just make sure you lose small, and use those bad trades to figure out what you can improve for next time. If you learn from your losses, you’re at least getting something out of them. This Week’s Calendar We have a busy week ahead with the CPI, PPI, ECB Rate decision plus earnings from ORCL, MDB, and others. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-12-09 at 8.50.02 AM
Continue Reading -->Why Apple and Meta Are Leading
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. On December 3, 2024, Scott appeared on ‘The Claman Countdown” on Fox Business, alongside Natixis’ Jack Janasiewicz: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com Scott went over: Why traders have become numb to geopolitical headlines Why there has been a “flight to quality” towards Mag7 names like Apple (AAPL) & Meta (META) – both current ideas in Power Plays The reason people are not selling Mag7 stocks into year-end Which names are likely to lead into year-end How Scott finds new ideas amid the market’s constant rotations How the “Fed put” is supporting the market Why the “Goldilocks” theme is winning right now The power of market timing when it comes to creating alpha Featured: Get 1 Year of Scott’s Top Ideas for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next one: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-12-04 at 7.56.58 AM
Continue Reading -->I Chose THIS Bitcoin Play
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are flat and off the lows as we see if we can hold 5984 this week to keep upper commitment to this active sequence which started on September 11. Each week has a different feel. It’s a new month so we should get some new flows to keep upper levels intact. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of one more 25 bps cut on 12/18, so this Friday’s jobs report will be important. We still get some news/developments out of the incoming President. Mexico/Canada tariff risks seem reduced, and the BRIC countries will stay with the US Dollar. Now let’s dig into strategy points for this week. Bitcoin became my #1 theme on October 11. It had a beautiful move from $62Kish to $99k+. We participated along the way in Power Plays via multiple names. On Friday, I added Bitcoin miner TeraWulf (WULF) back to Power Plays. Stanley Druckenmiller just upped his stake. And as long as it holds the $6 to $6.40, there could be very big upside in this one. So you can call me “RED WULF” this week, as long as this stock holds up of course! TSLA re-built nicely last week and perked up Friday. I did get long shares again and went with $360 calls. It was upgraded this morning with more FSD rollout talk. We’ll see if early strength builds. AAPL: I’ve been buying dips the past few weeks as it re-built and worked higher. On Friday, it cleared $235 to see $237.81. It seems like this can rally into year-end. $233 needs to hold. CCJ is the best-in-breed uranium play for institutions. The 50-day was buyable into the $50-$52 area and it hit $61ish. It needed to let the 8-day catch up and $57.11 held. We’ll see if it tries for new highs again. Keep this on your radar. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Don’t Try to Fix Monday’s Losses on Tuesday Every day is a fresh start. As traders, we must maximize the opportunities that are in front of us in the present moment. Forget about what happened yesterday, and don’t obsess over what may happen tomorrow. Let’s say you have a bad Monday. Don’t come in on Tuesday thinking you have to make up for it. You won’t be able to manage risk because you’ll be trading out of desperation. We all have rough stretches. But if we follow our principles and enter every day with a plan, our good days will outweigh the bad. Just take it one day at a time. On the flip side, if you make a fortune on Tuesday, don’t get lazy on Wednesday! Stick to your plan and make the most out of what you see. There’s no reason you can’t do better tomorrow. This Week’s Calendar The jobs report this week is key because there is some uncertainty over the Fed’s rate cut trajectory. And tech names CRM and MRVL will be closely watched as well. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-12-02 at 7.56.58 AM
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