JR warns “We’re not out of the woods yet” in this 2 minute rant
After aggressively shorting the S&P 500 during Jerome Powell’s Q&A on Wednesday… JR was asked what he thought about the market going forward. He answered in 2 minutes. It was quick and NSFW. Also hear about 2 positions he’s actively holding through this choppiness. …plus answering the question “Will we see lower lows?” …and “Should you be aggressive deploying capital?” Want to trade with JR inside the Momentum Express VTF®? Get your first month for just $99.
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week
It was a range-bound week in the market… but there was still some excitement including: The ongoing trade war with China The U.S. banning Nvidia (NVDA) from selling its chip in China Big bank earnings Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta Platforms (META) antitrust hearing UnitedHealth’s (UNH) plunge after earnings Eli Lilly’s (LLY) surge on trial success for its new weight loss pill So let’s dig in to the 10 Things You Need to Know Happening In The Markets Next Week 1. Will the U.S. make a deal with China? During a meeting with the Italian Prime Minister at the White House on Thursday, President Trump told reporters, “Nobody can compete with us…you will see we will make a very good deal with China.” President Trump on China: “Nobody can compete with us…you will see we will make a very good deal with China.” pic.twitter.com/XNjHSygUmj — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) April 17, 2025 So far, the trade war with China has been contentious with Beijing retaliating with its own tariffs. But the market seems to be less rattled by the tariff turmoil as time goes on. 2. Fed In Focus The Philadelphia Fed, Chicago Fed, and St Louis Fed Presidents are all scheduled to speak next week. Plus, Fed Governor Christopher Waller. The market is looking for more clarity on the Central Bank’s future plans after Chairman Jerome Powell signaled they are well positioned to wait and see the impact of tariffs before cutting rates. Powell said on Wednesday, “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.” President Trump meantime continues to demand rate cuts. In a post on Truth Social, he referred to the Chairman as “Too Late” Jerome Powell and seemed to hint he may be considering terminating him: Trump originally nominated Powell to the position on November 2, 2017 and his term is set to end in May 2026. The Fed also releases its Beige Book on Wednesday which gives the market a look at economic conditions across all 12 Fed districts. 3. Big Tech Earnings Are Starting Earnings will pick up steam next week with some big tech names in the mix. The question for the market remains centered around future outlook and how many companies will pull their guidance due to tariff uncertainty. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) maintained its full-year outlook on Thursday after beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s what names to have on your radar next week: Tuesday: 3M (MMM), Tesla (TSLA) Wednesday: Boeing (BA), Lam Research (LRCX), IBM (IBM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Thursday: Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC) How will these names move? Well, it all depends how the stock is trading headed into the report. 4. Is The Bond Market Back to “Normal”? Action in the U.S. bond market seemed to be much healthier last week after talk that something was “broken” in the week before. Is the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries over? Only time will tell. For now, the 10-year yield is hovering around 4.3% after falling as low as 3.9% at the start of the tariff drama. 5. Is The Housing Market Stalled? We will get updated data on the housing market next week with New Home Sales and Building Permits on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday. The recent volatility in the Treasury market has directly impacted mortgage rates as they follow the 10-year Treasury yield. As of Thursday morning, Mortgage News Daily showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate just under 6.9%. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported an 8.5% drop in total mortgage application volume last week as rates spiked from 6.61%. That drop came even as active inventory increased by 30%, a bad sign for sellers. MBA said more buyers are opting for riskier adjustable-rate mortgages, with the ARM share of mortgages at 9.6% — the highest since November 2023. 6. Gold Takes A Breather… After Hitting New Record Gold prices continued to spike last week, hitting another fresh record high of $3,357.57 on Wednesday. But on Thursday prices pulled back as investors appeared to book profits ahead of the long weekend. It’s hard in this market to hold anything over a long weekend, knowing the President could announce progress on trade talks or even a new trade deal at any moment. Other metals also pulled back on Thursday including Silver, platinum, and palladium. 7. Consumer Sentiment Update The University of Michigan releases its final Consumer Sentiment Survey for April on Friday. That reading is expected to be unchanged from 50.8 originally. That’s the lowest level for the index since June 24, 2022. The market — and the Fed — are focused on consumers’ inflation expectations with the new tariffs. 8. The VIX Has Pulled Way Back The VIX has dropped below 30 after peaking above 60 on April 8… does that mean the bottom is already in? The market was very boring at times for active traders last week due to the lack of volatility. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg, “If we measure uncertainty by the VIX… I think the VIX spiked and has likely peaked.” Will volatility pick back up with earnings this week and the possibility of new trade deals? CNN’s Fear & Greed Index still shows Extreme Fear driving the market now: 9. Will XBI Continue to Outperform? Biotechs outperformed other major sectors in the market over the past week. Since April 10, XBI is up 6.08% while XLE is up 5.86%, XLF is only up 1.64%, and SMH is down 1.84%. Will that strength continue next week? 10. Is Palantir Set to Breakout Many traders are focused on Palantir (PLTR) for a breakout play. The stock closed just under $94 on Thursday. Is this at a discount here? PLTR has been outperforming the entire MAG7 group, despite being overvalued on a forward P/E basis. This name seems to bucking the “revaluation of stocks” thesis that’s going around. Have a great long weekend! P.S. Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out JR’s Romero’s Tape Reading Course. It’s LIVE this weekend!
Continue Reading -->Is NVIDIA Going to $50?
NVIDIA (NVDA) could hit $50 in a bear market, Sami Abusaad says. However, whether we do go into a bear market is a major question. Meanwhile, JR Romero sees a much brighter picture for the stock long-term: Sami and JR explain: Why its so tricky to break down the broader markets Why NVDA has short-term staying power The unique secular trends pushing NVDA forward The reason you shouldn’t get caught up into short-term noise What the booming data center market says about NVDA What the company has done right for so long
Continue Reading -->My 2 Favorite China Stocks – I’m Not Crazy, I Swear
The market bottomed on Wednesday, and it looks like upside is limited. Sami Abusaad explains his reasoning, and also hares his 2 favorite China names — even with the tariff mess: Sami goes over: The reason he’s bullish right now Why he doesn’t see a “pretty picture” for the market, even though there is upside ahead Why the market doesn’t have smooth sailing The benefit of earnings season kicking off on Friday The bull case for Alibaba (BABA) and the Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Bull 2X Shares (CWEB) ETF Why he is ignoring the tariff conflict between the US and China, and focusing on the charts Tesla’s (TSLA) entry opportunity here And MORE! By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting soon.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know Right Now – Trade War Edition!
What a week! We just saw: Countless twists in the trade war President Trump make the most impactful market-related social media post ever The 3rd biggest up day since World War 2 A crazy surge in gold A big surprise cooling in US inflation A positive kickoff to Q1 earnings season So let’s dig in to the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now 1. It’s Time to Join Truth Social On Wednesday, President Trump set a world record for most impactful social media post of all time when he announced a 90-day pause in his tariff war. The S&P 500 rose 9.5% on Wednesday, which FactSet said is the 3rd biggest up day since World War 2. With the benefit of hindsight, this announcement seemed telegraphed earlier that morning: Needless to say… we should have listened. And we should be following the President on Truth Social. 2. Deflation Might Be the Next Buzzword This week, we had cool CPI and PPI reports in the US, possibly indicating that the inflation bogeyman is fading away – especially since oil prices are down 15% this month. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year in March – the lowest level in 4 years. Here’s a chart from Investing.com showing the long-term trend: Next Wednesday, we get CPI numbers from Great Britain and the Eurozone, which could confirm a global cooling of inflation. The question now is “if we had a bull market during a period of high inflation, could we see a deflation-driven bear market?” Traders have been eager for lower inflation readings. Maybe they should be careful what they wish for… We also have the ECB rate decision on Thursday – we’ll see just how frazzled our friends in Brussels are. 3. Earnings Season Is About to Heat Up Friday’s big earnings reports from JPMorgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK) and others were strong, sending XLF up about 1.3% as of midday Friday: But the big news was JPM’s Jamie Dimon saying S&P 500 earnings estimates will fall because of uncertainty driven by President Trump’s trade wars. The challenge is figuring out how much more expectations need to fall, if at all. According to FactSet, analysts forecast earnings growth of just 7.0% in Q1 — which is already down from 11.7% back on December 31. And guidance has been bad. Of companies issuing Q1 EPS guidance, 68% were negative, which is higher than average. Keep these names on your radar next week because they will move markets: Monday: Goldman Sachs (GS) Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) Wednesday: ASML Holding (ASML) Thursday: Netflix (NFLX), Taiwan Semi (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), American Express (AXP) ASML and Taiwan Semi in particular will be interesting because of their exposure to AI. 4. TLT Up Good, TLT Down Bad The word on the street is that “something” is broken in the bond market. There is chatter that China has been selling Treasuries as retaliation to the US. Either way, the market does not want higher rates (rates rise when bond prices fall) so all eyes are on US Treasury yields. Or if you want to keep this super simple, look at things this way: TLT Up = Good TLT Down = Bad 5. Gold Is Still a Monster… but It’s Gotten Trickier Precious metals have been the biggest moneymaker in 2025, with gold surpassing JR Romero’s $3,225 target price on Thursday evening. We spoke to JR for an update on gold. He said “We need to see gold over $3,250 to keep it going. Treasuries are key. If the bond market doesn’t straighten out, gold will be in trouble.” JR predicted the move to $3,000+ way back on April 10, 2024 – so be smart and listen to him. Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out JR’s Tape Reading Course. It’s LIVE! 6. No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Bitcoin’s staying power this month is the most undercovered story in the market. Crypto skeptics have considered Bitcoin just another risk asset like a tech stock or junk bond. But it’s been holding steady this month with a small gain despite a -5.1% drop in SPY. So maybe Bitcoin is turning into the “digital gold” people have dreamed it could be. 7. The Elevated VIX May Stay Elevated On Monday, the VIX hit a high of 60.42 with the term structure fully inverted. In other words… maximum stress. The VIX rises when traders buy SPX put options for downside protection. The more they pay up for those put options, the higher the VIX goes. Extreme VIX readings often represent great buying opportunities for equities. However, during periods of extreme chaos (think the 2020 Covid decline or the 2008-2009 crisis) the VIX stayed north of 50 for months. If the trade war rages on, the VIX could stay elevated for far longer than you think. On the flip side of this… 8. Awful Consumer Confidence May Be a Good Thing On Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 50.8, the lowest level since June 24, 2022. That date was not the market bottom. But it was close to it. You can’t time the lows with indicators like this – but it’s just another sign that stress is at extreme levels. That means more upside fuel for a squeeze should the US resolve trade tensions with China. So what’s squeezable? 9. Put These Names on Your Radar… We ran a screen for S&P 500 stocks that were up more than 30% in 2024, which are down more than 20% in 2025. We can up with 23 names: Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA) Tesla Inc. (TSLA) United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) Arista Networks Inc (ANET) Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) Synchrony Financial (SYF) Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) NetApp Inc. (NTAP) PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) Blackstone Inc. (BX) Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW)
Continue Reading -->What Investments David Prince Likes In This Market
While traders have been whipped around by this market, the action has created some good opportunities for long-term buyers. David Prince breaks down the 4 names he likes as investments in this environment: David discusses: Where he likes Nvidia (NVDA) Why the biotech space looks good longterm His levels for Amazon (AMZN) A “no-brainer” software buy And more Get David’s new free weekly newsletter here.
Continue Reading -->When Will The Market Bottom? JR Romero Discusses
JR Romero believes we have a short window of time for a catalyst to fix the longterm downtrend in the market. JR discusses what it would take to find a bottom: Learn: What the White House would need to do Whether the Fed can help Why time matters right now His targets for this market How to navigate trading in this environment The importance of not revenge trading your P&L
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets. And by “fun,” we mean miserable. Unless you were short. President Trump tossing a major “chaos bomb” into the market with his aggressive Tariff announcement on Thursday China firing back with a 34% tariff on US-made goods Vietnam and Thailand signaling they will play ball with Trump on Tariffs QQQ entering bear-market territory with a 20% decline off the highs Newsmax (NMAX) going public on Monday and becoming a meme stock on Tuesday Gold hitting record highs And MORE! So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Freakin’ Now! 1. QQQ Enters Bear Market Territory Mag7 stocks have been a total mess in 2025, officially becoming the “Lag7.” And QQQ officially entered bear market territory by falling 20% off the highs on midday Friday. It definitely ain’t 2023 or 2024 anymore! As of Friday at 1:04 pm ET, just one stock in QQQ had a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 60 – Exelon Corporation (EXC). The small caps are even messier, with IWM over 26% from its highs. Need insights on navigating times like this? Check out The 7 Unbreakable Rules of Bear Market Trading by David Prince of Inner Circle. 2. CPI Could Create Pandemonium, Consumer Sentiment Could Signal Misery Inflation has moderated in recent months, as you can see on the chart of the YoY Core CPI: Traders want more of this to give the Fed ample room to cut rates. Markets are pricing in: 4 rate cuts this year 35% probability of a 25 bps cut at the May 7 Fed meeting 100% probability of easing at the June meeting Traders are worried about stagflation – stagnating economic growth and high inflation. Because tariffs could hurt growth and increase inflation at the same time. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects tariffs to increase inflation and hurt growth. Hard economic data has been decent as of late. The March NFP and ADP employment numbers were solid, as was Q4 GDP. A hot CPI number on Thursday would be a disaster. On Friday, we get the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment number. Readings have been dropping like a rock all year. A continued drop may be a good thing for traders — since major collapses in Consumer Sentiment tend to correspond with stock market bottoms. 3. Earnings Season Kicks Off with the Banks We get the first taste of Q1 earnings season with JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reporting Friday. Expectations are low. FactSet tells us that 107 S&P 500 companies issued Q1 guidance, with 68 leaning negative. That’s 64%, above the 5-year average of 57%. And most of the weakness is in tech. But guidance is likely to get even worse thanks to all the tariff uncertainty. Because companies want to keep expectations as low as possible to set the stage for positive earnings surprises. The banks are key because they’ll give us insights into housing and the overall consumer picture – a good companion to the Michigan Sentiment report. 4. Gold Had a Monster “Sell the News” Gold hit record highs on Thursday on President Trump’s tariff announcement. But then it sold off. Hard. Traders have been asking whether gold’s surprising surge in 2025 was a sign of trouble to come. In hindsight, that looks right. If the tariff situation cools off, gold may flat-out collapse. 5. NVIDIA Could be a Value Stock If you loved NVIDIA (NVDA) at 70 times earnings… do you like it as 21 times earnings? NVIDIA was the leading megacap tech growth stock of 2023 and 2024. Could be the greatest value stock of 2025? Tough to say. Especially because traders want a big earnings report and strong guidance from this semiconductor leader. The problem is that NVIDIA won’t report earnings again until May. 6. Nike May Be the Tariff Bellwether Nike (NKE) was devastated on Thursday and Friday because the new Tariffs will hit the company’s supply chain, particularly in Vietnam. On Friday, Nike broke its pandemic low, and then rebounded hard when Vietnam signaled it would strike a tariff deal with the US. If more dip buyers come in hard, that could mean the market is looking past the near-term pain of the Tariff storm. Also see: Lululemon (LULU) and Deckers (DECK). 7. Sentiment Is Rock Bottom Negative 61.9% of investors are bearish for the next 6 months, according to AAII Sentiment. This is the 3rd highest bearish reading in history, behind: March 5, 2009: 70.3% at height of housing crisis October 19, 1990: 67.0% bc of Iraq’s Invasion of Kuwait, surging oil prices, and a US recession. These extreme readings happened right at market bottoms. But in fairness, in those cases, the markets were down much further off highs. And this 61.9% bearish number was calculated BEFORE the Trump Tariff news hit. 8. NewsMax Could Implode Newsmax (NMAX) has a high valuation and big losses. Not a great recipe for outperformance in this market. The stock opened at $14 when it IPO’d on Monday. And it hit $265 on Tuesday. On Wednesday at 1:15 pm ET, Adam Mesh announced he was shorting the stock. The stock was around $121 when this live stream started… and just an hour later it was at $67. And on Thursday it hit a low of $40. This is not a great environment for super-risky speculative names. So Newsmax should have a rough time going forward. 9. Bitcoin May Be Decoupling from US Equities Scott Redler pointed out this week that Bitcoin looks like it may be decoupling from SPY. We are being very selective with the starting point on this chart. Still – Bitcoin’s staying power has been remarkable during a sloppy era for risk assets. 10. You Should Learn from Paul Tudor Jones We’re hard at work expanding our Learning Center, and you should check out our latest piece. 10 Trading Tips from Paul Tudor Jones –
Continue Reading -->2 Traders, 1 Tesla Target Price
JR Romero announced his new target price on Tesla (TSLA). And it turns out Sami Abusaad has the exact same target (after Sami lowered his by $2). Learn: What makes Tesla (TSLA) different from Apple (AAPL) right now The strange force keeping Tesla elevated How JR traded Tesla this morning, and the game plan he gave his traders Why Sami got out of Tesla, and then back in Why you have to keep this stock on your radar And more!
Continue Reading -->The Heat Is On
Friday’s big red bar means the market is in trouble. Sami Abusaad explains: What the market would needs to rebound Where QQQ and SPY are going next A real estate stock that looks phenomenal What could turn AIG (AIG) into a magnificent long-term play A silver play that could trigger this week for big potential upside A quantum computing name that could go lower Why Lululemon (LULU) looks bearish And MORE! By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting in April.
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