For Every Stock There is a Season
In the deep south, we’ve fully entered into summer time. That means we can depend on hot, humid weather until about the middle of October. While I can’t pinpoint the exact date the miserable humidity will subside, I do trust my timing prediction of the approximate change of the season. That’s because the seasons are dependably cyclical. They announce their coming and going with tell tale signs. The patterns of the seasons are comforting in their predictability. I like to frame my thinking in the observation of repeatable patterns as a means to navigating life because a predictable future is easier to plan for than a completely haphazard one. It’s a sometimes serendipitous quirk and a sometimes rueful lament that life doesn’t always conform to my mental models of pattern recognition. Markets are a microcosm of life in this regard. A mental model of how markets should work is an essential, if not always useful, toolkit in the business of speculation. The notion that the buying and selling of different groups of stocks could be timed based on cyclical patterns was compelling to me when I started trying to figure out how the market works over 18 years ago. The pattern I use as a mental model to try and determine what “season” the market is in is this graphic depiction of the business cycle: This graph is more of a guideline rather than an instruction manual. The nature of markets is such that perfect conformity to a standard is not high on a list of observable traits. I’ve noticed over the years, that while perfect conformity to this pattern is not realistic, there are observable cycles that do approximately represent the pattern this cycle predicts. The QE era from 2012 to 2022 was a horrible period for trying to use this graph as a guide. But ever since the first rate hike cycle got under way in April 2022, this graph has proven to be a useful guide to me once again. The biggest trade of my life was gold miners from 2023 to autumn 2025, and while my P&L was compelling me to lock in gains on the way up, this cycle graph is what steeled my resolve that letting go of the stocks that made my gains was the only sensible course of action. T he Fed began easing, and I knew from the last time this cycle worked in 2007 that the metals and mining stocks, including the gold mining stocks, should be sold. That decision to lock in profit was a monumental one for me. Now, once again, I feel comfortable using this cycle graph as a guide to determine how to deploy my capital next. My view is that we are in the contraction phase of the business cycle, and my biggest position is by far cash. Several indicators don’t line up exactly with this cycle graph, so I’m not clinging to my view, in fact, I’ve got one foot out of the door on this view already. I’m already building mental models of what would prove my view to be incorrect (one development that would begin invalidate my view is if crude oil holds this 200 day moving average, and makes a run for the highs later this year). But for the moment, I’m planning on using this cycle graph as a guide for what the buy next. The contraction phase of the business cycle should make earnings less predictable, which should make any reliable growth in earnings worth more to institutional investors whose waves of buying leave footprints on the tape. Traditionally, they should be willing to shift capital into drug and grocery store stocks due to the predictable earnings in a weak economy. The consumer packaged goods stocks are all in horrific downtrends, so I’ll need to see some reversal there before I think about building a big position. I’ve never seen $GIS yield this much (5.5% div yield) or trade this cheap (11 PE), but I’ve never seen it have sustained volume declines either. $GIS reports July 1 so I’ll see what they say about volumes and pricing there. This could be the bottom if they are able to stop the declines and get back to growth, but I have no insight there so I’m just watching for now. The consumer packaged goods space is in too much trouble to confidently take a large position. The drug stocks however, are beginning to show the tell tale signs of a change in season. The $IBB is shaping up nicely. $ABBV jumped the gun and bought $APGE this week. $APGE had a picture perfect set up that let you know institutions were buying up all the supply at lower prices, but the SPX with an 8 day moving average underneath the 21 kept me out of breakout trades. $APGE didn’t even give a proper breakout signal before it got taken off the board, but this serves as validation that drug stocks are in play, underpriced, forming constructive price structures, and in the correct part of the business cycle. $AUPH is another one with a text book price structure setup for a breakout. It already broke out above it’s flat top at $16.50 on a gap up. It’s a low risk buy under $17, but I’ve never had good results chasing. There will always be other opportunities. With the SPX and NDX flopping around their 8 and 21 day moving average stack, I think there’s a possibility patience will be rewarded and offer a brief moment to get in something before a trend move higher starts and doesn’t let you in without chasing. I’m still looking towards the August time frame as a period when the market has to deal with a tapped out consumer, services prices that are just too high, and the ramifications of the private credit and life insurance debacle, so a summer rally into Autumn, then a big market reaction is a scenario I’m planning for. Commodities are
Continue Reading -->Why SpaceX Is Going Up. Yes Up.
SpaceX has a lot of problems like major share lockups coming soon. Here’s why it may not matter: Today we discuss Why SpaceX looks bullish short-term, even with its long-term problems Whether we’ll get data centers in space The never-ending semis vs. software battle The wild momentum in memory/storage names The potential for solar names to wake up here Our favorite names near-term And more!
Continue Reading -->Micron Says WAKE UP!
JR Romero nailed Micron (MU) to the long side when its earnings hit on June 24, 2026. And this is what it will do to the market”: JR goes over: Why the market got freaked out before the report Why you need to be careful with this name Why Micron’s margins are so shocking The reason Micron’s momentum is not waning How the AI boom compares to the late 90’s Internet bubble The value of finesse with names like Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) The names Micron will impact near-term Get JR’s full breakdown now!
Continue Reading -->My #1 Name Went Up. I Still Love It.
The market back to bullish, with IWM looking as a standout. Sami also shares his #1 name once again. It just had a big rally, but looks ripe to keep on going. Sami goes over: The financial that remains his #1 name. (3 minutes in if you want to skip ahead) Why he remains bullish on Nike (NKE) for a comeback A biotech that looks ready to boom A footwear name that needs one more day to prove itself 2 solar names that just broke downtrends and are about to take out the highs And more!
Continue Reading -->SpaceX: The Hard Questions Are Here
Peace is coming (hopefully) to the Middle East, sending oil lower while equities stabilized. But if you expected a sleepy summer, you’re disappointed. Because this market remains action-packed. So let’s talk about what’s happening: SpaceX Comes Down to Earth Last Friday, SpaceX (SPCX) came public in the biggest IPO of all time. And it hit Earth with a bang. The deal priced at $135. The stock opened at $150 on the dot and hit a high of $225.64 on Tuesday, from where it started sliding: Even after this 20% drop, its $2.36 trillion market cap is larger than: Broadcom (AVGO) Tesla (TSLA) Meta (META) Micron (MU) Walmart (WMT) JP Morgan (JPM) Analysts expect SpaceX to grow revenues from $35.9 billion this year to $130.9 billion in 2029. Elon Musk himself said he expects SpaceX to generate about $1 trillion in revenue in 2030. But now the tough questions are coming: Was the entire rally engineered through limiting the supply of stock and giving more retail traders access to the IPO? Can Elon Musk sell SpaceX the way he’s sold Tesla? Even if SpaceX can hit growth targets, is the valuation out of control? Will the stock collapse when insiders get the green light to sell? Will the company have to raise even more capital? There are now reports of a potential $20 billion bond offering on the way. I own a whopping 10 shares of SpaceX myself. And I’m thinking about selling, and buying some out-of-the-money puts. Because if SpaceX crashes, it’s bound to be ugly. JR Romero had some harsh words for SpaceX (the stock, not the company) here, and we went deeper into the potential dangers facing this iconic name: The Epic Semiconductor Run Won’t Stop, and Has Another Catalyst The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) might be incapable of going down. It’s up 83% this year and hit another record high on Friday thanks to big moves in names like Intel (INTC), Taiwan Semi (TSM), and AMD (AMD). And it would be up even more if SanDisk (SNDK) was in the ETF. SanDisk is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 this year with its 819% gain. Plus, there’s another catalyst on the horizon: Micron’s (MU) earnings report on Wednesday after the close. Based on the number of AI-related capital raises we’re seeing from the likes of Alphabet (GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), SpaceX, and others, demand for memory remains insatiable. So Micron should extend what’s been a monumental winning streak for semiconductor earnings. Warsh Confirms the Drift Towards Higher Rates New FOMC Chairman Kevin Warsh made a big splash at his debut meeting on Wednesday. Warsh shortened the post-meeting statement, ditched the dot plot, announced five new task forces, and declared war on inflation. Warsh’s hawkish show came as a surprise to many because he was viewed as a loyalist to President Trump, who has been vocal in wanting lower rates. And 9 of 18 Fed officials now expect at least one rate hike this year. The market was already leaning in the direction of higher rates, and the Fed reinforced that. Now markets are pricing in an 85% chance of higher rates by year-end, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. So the breakdown of expectations is now as follows: 15% chance of rates staying unchanged 37.6% chance of 25 bps in hikes 33.3% chance of 50 bps in hikes 12.5% chance of 75 bps in hikes 1.7% chance of 100 bps in hikes This isn’t a major change from last week. It was more a reinforcement of what the market is looking for. Still, I’m eager to see if the President starts tangling with the independent-minded Warsh. Stocks Go Up, Traders Go “Meh” The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.6% of investors are bullish. This is up from last week. But it’s still the 5th straight week of below-average bullishness. That’s even with equity markets hitting record highs, and a US-Iran deal coming together. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 37, smack dab in the Fear category. But overall, the numbers are healthy because it shows that not everyone is bought into this rally. The last thing we need is euphoric sentiment, which typically happens around tops.
Continue Reading -->New: SpaceX & SanDisk Price Targets Revealed
JR Romero’s made plenty of waves with big calls on big stocks. And he just revealed his new price targets for SpaceX (SPCX) and SanDisk (SNDK). JR shares: Why SpaceX has different short-term and long-term outlooks Why Spacex feels like Facebook all over again The basic supply-demand dynamics that helped SpaceX shoot up Why the public is so obsessed with SpaceX The reason SanDisk remains unstoppable Where these names are going next His favorite ideas right now And more!
Continue Reading -->Observe the Structure, Wait for the Signal
The business of speculation is entirely unique. What’s required to succeed in this business often runs counter to what’s required to succeed in other lines of business. Virtually all other businesses involve some element of salesmanship. Sales is denoted by its busyness. In sales, being busy, or even just the appearance of being busy, confers to others that you are working. Not so with speculation. The work of speculation is denoted by its lack of busyness. This apparent lack of activity is easy to mistake for idleness; even after years of trying to explain what I do for a living to my wife, she still can’t believe that work is anything other than continuous motion and constant action. I can’t blame her for thinking my lack of appearing busy is idleness, but what I’m actually doing is anything but idle. I spend on average 25 to 30 hours a week doing real work, and about 5 to 10 doing admin and maintenance. Of the 30, at least 15 hours is spent in observation. To her, my work in observation looks like doing nothing, but it’s the most critical activity for my work. I’m observing the market and waiting for something to appear that looks familiar to me. I’m searching for the one setup I know works for me. There’s really only one technical setup that I can attribute to all my winning trades: a long base and a breakout within a strong general market. Here’s my best winning trades from 2025. They all share the setup I like with a base in white, a breakout in green, elevated RSI in yellow, and most importantly, a stop in red: $AGI: $ATUSF: $GIFI: $DAC: $MT: Each of these trades had two things going for it: 1) a technical setup that I recognize combined with the SPX above it’s 8 and 21 day moving averages, and 2) a fundamental theme or compelling valuation. The technical setup writes its own story: there is a negotiation between buyers and sellers inside the white base that forms a price structure with a flat top. All throughout this price structure formation, I’m observing. I’m waiting to see a signal. The breakout in green is the exact moment in time that the buyers have bought up all the available supply of stock. In order for the auction to occur, the price must work higher. The best stocks will show strength for some period of time before the breakout. The very best trades have a logical stop that is not more than 7% below the breakout level. The closer the logical stop is to the breakout, the less risk there is and the larger the position can be. I use a constant risk position sizing so any trade will never risk more than 1% of my account, and each stock should be under 10% of the account in case of a gap down beneath the stop. I’ll relax this requirement if I have a compelling fundamental reason for feeling OK with a large single stock position. The fundamental part of owning a stock is a lot more difficult to pin down than the technical. Each stock from my 2025 trades had a fundamental appeal to institutional investors that made it compelling to own. $AGI’s cash flows were surging with the price of gold, and it was trading at the same cash flow multiple as the average stock when it should have been trading at a premium due to the cash flow ramp. $ATUSF was very cheap at 7x cash flow when it broke out at $20. This is far too cheap for a company with as high a caliber management as Altius. $GIFI, Gulf Island Fab, was right in the sweet spot – oil and gas ancillary services was the right theme, they had no debt, and growing backlog and earnings for several quarters. It was all right there in their SEC filings. I had no idea they would get a buy out so quickly after the breakout signal. $DAC broke above $100 right at the beginning of 2026. It was trading at less than book value at the time, and earnings were stable. I figured it shouldn’t trade at a discount to book. I had no idea the shipping disruption that was about to come with the Strait of Hormuz, but institutional buyers did. They bought up all the supply under $100. $MT was in the metals and mining theme that was working so well in 3Q and 4Q 2025. I didn’t know it at the time the stock broke $35, but the EU was ramping up steel tariffs in a big way. ArcelorMittal was trading at 70% of book value before the EU tariff announcement while US companies like $NUE and $STLD were already rallying and trading much higher than book value. $MT was an easy target for institutional sponsorship. The reason I was able to participate in these moves is because I was observing. I know what I want to see, and I keep on the look out for it. I won’t always get every move, and it’s painful when I see a technical setup I recognize but can’t get a fundamental understanding of the valuation component. Because a lot of the story-stocks in this market are pretty un-analyzable from a fundamental perspective, I have to sit on the sidelines for a lot of the big moves that these stocks achieve. Stocks like $TSLA, $ASTS, or $RIOT can have great setups, but if I can’t get an understanding of why they may be compelling from a valuation perspective, I’ll have to pass. Some stocks which are more suited to my analytical abilities that I’m observing right now are: $BIIB, $MRK, and $NVS. The technical setup is easy to see: a base with a flat top forming and strong RSI. I’ll be observing those stocks as the price structure develops and waiting for a breakout that occurs with the SPX above it’s 8 and 21 day
Continue Reading -->SpaceX: This Is How It Ends
JR Romero believes SpaceX (SPCX) is a groundbreaking company. And it will be a leading tech stock. But a simple law will crash this blockbuster IPO before then. That law is supply and demand: JR explains: Why he’s been long SpaceX, even with trouble down the road What the Netscape, Facebook, and Coinbase IPOs say about SpaceX How Elon Musk has captured some Morgan/Rockefeller magic When the stock will be in trouble How SpaceX will eventually become a leading tech name The power of cult of personality with this name And more!
Continue Reading -->My #1 Long-Term Name
The broader action is neutral. But there is plenty to get excited about. Including Sami Abusaad’s #1 long-term trade: Sami explains: His #1 name with a monthly buy setup on the verge of a breakout Why the broader markets are neutral Why QQQ stands out right now The bullish action in airlines and cruise line Why he is bullish on Twilio (TWLO) once again 3 names set to decline as crude oil drops And more!
Continue Reading -->Why 2026 rhymes with 2008 when it comes to deflation
Why a new T3 Live contributor is saying the ‘crowd’ noise’ is different than what the market is saying I’m not saying 2026’s setup is similar to 2008’s. I’m saying it’s exactly the same. The crowd is shouting again. It’s shouting about inflation — the same way it shouted in 2007 and 2008. And just like back then, the market is whispering something else entirely. After almost two decades in this trading and investing game, I’ve come to accept that winning in the markets is a choice. You show up regularly, you practice with intention, and you execute your plan on game day — no different from winning at anything else. But the first thing you have to choose is who you listen to: the crowd, or the market. They’re rarely saying the same thing. My 2008 story of using vegetable oil for fuel… because the ‘crowd’ said to When I first started trying to operate in the stock market back in 2007, I knew none of this. I treated it as a hobby, not a profession. Hobbies cost you money; professions earn you money. My hobbyist approach cost me embarrassing amounts of both time and money. Back then, I was fresh out of college, working my first “real job” as a telephone salesman for a big tech company. The cubicle is a miserable environment — they couldn’t have invented a more sorrowful place to spend your waking hours. I saw trading stocks on the internet as a way out, and it became a mental escape more than an income stream. And those were crazy times. Crude oil was pushing through $120… Cars were a way of life for me and my friends back then — building them, racing them, buying parts for race cars and 4x4s — so we felt the looming gas shortage in our bones. Building a car was already expensive, and driving one was getting worse by the week as China bought up every commodity on the planet to pull its population out of poverty and into a middle class. We started making biodiesel out of vegetable oil and lye, because we knew — we just knew — we were only months from running out of crude and gasoline. We just knew the trucks would stop delivering and the grocery stores would empty out. We knew all of it because we were listening to the shouting. The media. The politicians. The people around us. I was learning to be a trader, and instead of listening to the deafening noise of the crowd, I should have been listening to the whisper of the market. Gold can predict the future of inflation… and it’s doing it again Here’s what I didn’t know then but know now: gold front-runs the money printing. It starts moving 18 months to two years before the central banks do. By 2008, gold, wheat, and crude had already priced in the inflation before it ever entered public awareness — and as they topped out, they began whispering what came next. Not more inflation. Deflation. The most violent deflation to wash over the money system since 1929. Gold’s four-year run from autumn 2004 to autumn 2008 looks awfully similar to its run from autumn 2022 to now. It was a deflationary bust that dragged gold down into October 2008 as the financial crisis hit: Back then, it was the fertilizers running geometrically as China bought up all the potash and nitrogen in the world. Today, it’s the hyperscalers buying up all the DRAM. Here’s $MOS then versus $MU now: This is where it gets uncomfortable. Almost no one who was warning about deflation during the 2008 top could be heard over the shouting. Home prices — and the property-tax receipts riding on them — were ratcheting higher, and we were told they always would. By the end of 2009, property taxes were slashed across the country. Homeowner’s insurance cost a fraction of what it had a year earlier. Getting work done on your house in 2006 and 2007 came with an astronomical price tag, if you could even find someone to do it. By the end of 2009, the market was flooded with contractors looking for any project at all. It’s the exact same story, repeating verbatim, today. The signs were everywhere in 2008, but they didn’t boast… Frantic road-construction projects as towns rushed to spend every last tax dollar that had come in the year before. Look around your own town — see anything similar? The social excesses, too: the Hummer H2, a beefed-up Tahoe built for suburban moms who wanted to feel like they were on patrol because the drive to the grocery store had gotten too mundane. Nothing marked the top better than that thing. Are you seeing this in your town? Now look at your streets. I’ll bet you can’t drive across town without passing two Hummer EVs. The auto industry is writing off its wasted EV capex as we speak — Honda’s just the latest. None of those signs announced themselves. The astute speculator had to watch for them and listen to the quiet voice within — the one that whispered: sell. I’m watching, and I’m listening. Being 90% long gold miners from 2023 until autumn of 2025 got me to where I am today, and I’m always hunting the next high-probability position to size into. Right now, that position is cash. My current portfolio holdings I’m in 75% cash, with about 15% in gold miners left over from my last big trade, plus small trading positions in $ATUSF, $DAC, and $FTK after peeling some off over the past few weeks. I’ve also got a small long-term hold in $VITL and a bigger one in $EPD. As long as $SPY stays below its 8- and 21-day moving averages, I’m not taking on any new breakout trades. I’ll keep what I’ve got, trail my stops, stay in the upside, and run my game plan into August 2026 — when I
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