Would you rather trade Tesla or Sandisk?
Tell us your favorite stocks to trade What are you favorite names to buy and sell in the market? Tesla? SanDisk? Nvidia? Let us know in our latest poll. We’re focused on delivering more of what you want. So please take 2 minutes to give us an idea of: What names you focus on How you feel about a certain high-profile IPO Whether you’re a fan of the premarket How you’d describe this environment in one word (can be NSFW!) And if you read between the lines in this survey, you’ll get an idea of a hot new Voice your thoughts right here Confirm your email for the Alpha Team VTF® Open House This is your chance to see a pro trader in action next week, which is a big week with earnings from GE Vernova (GEV), Lam Research (LRCX), IBM (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), and of course… Tesla (TSLA). Join this live, interactive community to see everything he’s doing. In his real-money account. With no safety net. Just a taste of what could happen. You see if he buys TSLA calls into earnings You see if he buys even more TSLA on SpaceX IPO news You see if he loads the boat with IWM on the jobless claim numbers You see if he scoops up nuclear names on GEV’s report You see if he goes all-in long on favorable Middle East news These are all hypotheticals. But no matter what, you see it LIVE. Because the VTF® is connected into his brokerage account. All the buys and sells happen right in front of your face so you get: 100% transparency into how a pro finds ideas in real time Zero confusion because he shows you his book (not just talking it like most alleged experts) So take this unique opportunity to follow a pro as he works this exciting week.
Continue Reading -->It’s Tesla Time. Here’s Why.
ATTN: Sami’s Pristine Mentorship is SOLD OUT! Stay tuned for future announcements of Sami learning events. The market turned bullish last week and ended the downtrend. Sami explains the technical analysis rules that qualify this major trend change. And of course, why he’s bullish on Tesla (TSLA) again: He also covers: A bank that looks solid into earnings Why he sees a bullish move coming in a rocket play A tv/moving streaming name that looks headed higher Why Nike (NKE) is going even lower after getting destroyed Multiple names showing major sell setups A software name with big downside potential And more!
Continue Reading -->Headlines Still Rule This Market
We survived another week in this wild market. So here are the 5 things you need to know. Headlines – and Oil – Still Rule As Iran and the U.S. reached a two-week ceasefire deal this week… stocks went flying and oil tumbled. But the good times may have been short lived as concerns about the fragility of the deal came back into the market. Iran had reportedly agreed to allow safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz but shipping companies said that wasn’t happening. President Trump warned Iran to “stop now” if it was charging tankers to pass through the Strait and ramped up his aggressive tone in a Truth Social post on Friday: Despite the uncertainty, oil prices ended the week under $100, down nearly 20% from the recent high Stocks ended the week with a down day after 4 straight sessions higher, with the S&P 500 up over 3% on the week: Now we see what happens over the weekend before Monday’s open… every day is a risk of a new headline to break things one way or the other. Consumers Are Feeling Pain The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low this month as fears mount about rising energy prices and the impact of the Iran war. The headline index dropped to 47.6 on Friday, down 10.7% from March. It’s the lowest reading on record – even including COVID-era surveys. That drop coincided with a sharp rise in inflation expectations. Consumers now see inflation rising 4.8% over the next year, a full 1% higher than March expectations and the highest reading since August 2025. Most of the interviews for this survey were conducted before the April 7 ceasefire agreement. So we’ll have to watch the release of the final survey for April later this month. Survey director Joanne Hsu said, “Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated.” Earnings On Deck It feels like Q4 earnings season just finally ended… and now we are ramping up for Q1 results. The action kicks off with the big banks next week, with Netflix (NFLX) being the first big tech company to report. Here are the highlights: Monday AM: Goldman Sachs (GS) Tuesday AM: JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Wednesday AM: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS) Thursday AM: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PepsiCo (PEP), Charles Schwab (SCHW) Thursday PM: Netflix (NFLX) Here’s the full calendar for the week, it’s pretty quiet besides the Producer Price Index release on Tuesday: If you want to learn a winning strategy for earnings season, rev up your Earnings Engine with Sami Abusaad! Traders Get More Bullish The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.7% of investors are bullish. That’s up over 2% from last week, but the 8th straight week of below-average bullishness, though it’s not an extreme reading. Just 43% of investors are bearish, down sharply from 51.4% last week. While 21.3% are neutral. These numbers are not shocking considering the tricky environment. And, over in the options market, things still look pretty neutral. The CBOE equity put-call ratio has hovered between 0.48 and 0.72 this week. So the crowd is still pretty cautious. Hard to pick a direction when you don’t know what headline might drop at any moment. Burry Still Bearish After Trump’s PLTR Pump Palantir (PLTR) was in focus on Friday after President Trump praised the company in a Truth Social post: After Trump’s endorsement of the stock, PLTR bottomed at $122.68 at 10:11am ET before rallying to a high of $129.20 at 11:28am ET. But “Big Short” investor Michael Burry is still bearish the name. In a Substack post, Burry wrote, “I now own the June 17 2027 Strike Price 50 Puts and the December 19, 2026 Strike Price 100 Puts. I am not selling these today.” Even with Friday’s pop, PLTR was on track for a roughly 13% weekly drop, bringing the stock’s 2026 losses to about 28%. Burry says the software firm is “wildly overvalued” after peaking near $200 last year. Meantime, the broader software sector has been hit hard this year with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) down nearly 30% YTD. This earnings season will be key for software stocks to relieve market fears about AI disruptions to their business.
Continue Reading -->Bulls Emerge
ATTN: Sami’s Mentorship has 2 spots left! Go here to lock in your spot now. The bulls emerged last week and the trend is looking higher. Sami Abusaad goes over his new swing trade ideas for the week in today’s video: Sami explains: The key levels he’s using to determine the market trend Two aluminum stocks with 1-2-3 breakout setups One “unbelievably bullish” optical stock A memory play with solid support Why high quality setups are hard to find right now And more!
Continue Reading -->Oil vs. Stocks: Who’s Lying?
We survived another week in this topsy-turvy market. These are the 5 things you need to know. The Oil vs. Stocks Conundrum President Trump’s Iran-focused primetime address on Wednesday wasn’t exactly a roaring success thanks to mixed signals. He said the operation is “nearing completion.” But he also said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next 2-3 weeks. We could be arguing semantics here. Maybe 2-3 weeks qualifies as getting close to the end. But it appears that equities are looking past the turmoil. SPY is now down just 6.3% from all-time highs even though oil just did this: And even though rate cuts might be off the table this year. This is where it gets tricky. Stocks are pricing in resolution on Iran. Oil is doing the opposite. Which side is right? Which one is lying? This is the toughest question in the market right now. My guess is that stocks are right about oil. What’s yours? We’ve Got Gas, and It’s Very Expensive Traders are now pricing in a 25% chance of lower rates this year, up from just 1% last week. Still, we get NFP on Friday April 3, followed by CPI, GDP, and the Core PCE Price Index next week. So God only knows where this number will be by next Friday. But the big topic on consumers’ minds is the price of gasoline, which has skyrocketed: Aside from the economic fallout, high gas prices could impact the midterm elections later this year. And there’s no telling when we get relief, because Iran is digging in its heels, likely because they know that high energy prices hurt President Trump. There’s Been a Massive Invasion of Privacy JR Romero has been warning that Private Credit is a disaster waiting to happen. And yesterday, Blue Owl (OWL) said it was facing a huge wave of redemption requests for its funds. Private Credit funds are under pressure because investors are worried about credit quality and rising rates. Many funds have high exposure to speculative software companies that may be under threat from AI. Interestingly, Private Equity stocks have also been under pressure for the same reasons. And of course, some Private Equity companies like Blackstone (BX) and KKR (KKR) run Private Credit Funds. Look at this list of Private Credit Companies/Funds, and Private Equity Companies: They are down an average of 38.8% from their 52-week highs. Meanwhile, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is down just -12.2% Traders Are Not Fearful The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.6% of investors are bullish. This is up slightly from last week, but the 7th straight week of below-average bullishness, though it’s not an extreme reading. And 51.4% of investors are bearish, which is well above the long-term average of 31.0%. These numbers are not shocking considering the tricky environment. Meanwhile, over in the options market, things remain neutral. The CBOE equity put-call ratio has hovered between 0.56 and 0.66 this week, which doesn’t tell us much either way. So we can say the crowd is cautious. But not overly fearful, even with a lack of resolution in the Middle East. Could an OpenAI IPO Bomb? Coming into 2026, traders were excited about three possible IPOs this year: SpaceX Anthropic (maker of Claude) OpenAI (maker of ChatGPT) OpenAI might be off the table. Bloomberg reported that demand for OpenAI shares on secondary markets (where shares in private companies are bought and sold) has collapsed. If you follow the AI ecosystem, you know that Anthropic is dominating the war for hearts and minds. I can’t open Twitter or LinkedIn without reading 13,000 new tales of how Claude Cowork is changing lives. And right or wrong, now everyone’s treating ChatGPT like yesterday’s news. And the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is retooling the company to focus on coding and business users, which is Claude’s strength. OpenAI is now generating $2 billion in revenue per month, and just raised $122 billion in new capital. But could a prospective OpenAI IPO bomb because Anthropic is the belle of the ball? I’m guessing yes. And then OpenAI could be the buy of a lifetime.
Continue Reading -->SWMR: Perfect Stock At The Perfect Time
Since its IPO 2 weeks ago, Swarmer (SWMR) has been the hot new stock in the drone space. And when President Trump spooked the market with his speech on the Iran War Wednesday, SWMR started flying. David Prince explains why it’s the “perfect story at the perfect time”: David goes over: How the SWMR story is about more than just drones Why he shorted Exxon (XOM) as oil prices soared The strategies he’s using in this volatile market Why he hates the idea of ditching quarterly earnings reports And more! Apply to work with David inside the Inner Circle VTF® now.
Continue Reading -->Tesla Looks Great. Nvidia Does Not.
ATTN: Sami’s Mentorship has 2 spots left! Go here to lock in your spot now. Sami Abusaad is still bearish on the market. But he argues that Tesla (TSLA) looks good here, even in the face of disappointing delivery numbers. Sami explains: Why Tesla is at a unique inflection point How he feels about the SpaceX IPO Why he does not trust this market, even with its resilience What he thinks of the current swing trading environment What Nvidia’s (NVDA) breakout failure means for the market The pharma name he loves right now And more!
Continue Reading -->The Bear Is Here to Stay
ATTN: Sami’s Mentorship has 3 spots left! Go here to lock in your spot now. The market is still bearish. But with things so oversold, we could see a short-term bounce. Sami explains: Why a weak bounce could mean amazing short setups Why a sustained rally is not happening Why IWM could hit $230 The short setups in semi/storage/memory names including SanDisk (SNDK) How energy names like Apache (APA) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) could reverse down When the best entries will come The power of patience at times like this And more!
Continue Reading -->I’m Afraid of SpaceX
What a week. War is raging. The headlines won’t stop. Crude oil is raging higher. And inflation is on everyone’s mind. So let’s go through the 5 things you need to know. 1. I’m Afraid of SpaceX Word on the street is that Elon Musk’s SpaceX is about to raise up to $75 billion in an IPO that would value the company at up to $1.75 trillion. And I’m afraid. SEC data shows that market tops coincide with strong IPO years like 2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021. So if we get big IPOs this year from SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks, that could be a sign of a cyclical top. Many investors are frustrated that high-growth companies are staying private longer and longer. Maybe that’s a good thing. And with rates possibly on the upswing and speculative stocks getting slammed, maybe the IPO window for these hot companies will stay closed anyway. 2. Hard Times Are Here March has been a miserable month for stocks unless you’ve been long energy. (more on this below) As you’d expect, sentiment has taken a hit. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 32.1% of investors are bullish. This is the 6th straight week of below-average bullishness, though it’s not an extreme reading. And 49.8% of investors are bearish, which is well above the long-term average of 31.0%. These numbers are not shocking considering the tricky environment. Meanwhile, over in the options market, things are pretty neutral. The CBOE equity put-call ratio has been hovering between 0.56 and 0.63 this week, which doesn’t tell us much either way. If we get a spike to 0.9 or higher on Friday, maybe that’s a sign we’re oversold. So we can say the crowd is somewhat bearish. Nothing that can give us a buy signal. One big reason markets are in a funk is the sudden fear of rate hikes due to high inflation. That’s why… 3. The Hawks Are Flying We looked at FOMC rate policy expectations using the CME’s FedWatch Tool. The market is now pricing in: 2.9% chance of one 25 bps rate cut 69.5% chance of no change 24.5% chance of a 25 bps rate hike this year 3.0% chance of 50 bps in hikes 0.2% chance of 75 bps in hikes That’s a 27.7% implied probability of rates going up this year. And a 2.9% chance of a single rate cut. If we wind back the lock just one month, traders were pricing in a 0% chance of higher rates, and a 96.1% chance of cuts. You can thank oil for this. Speaking of oil… 4. Energy Is the Star Every equity sector has been red in March, with one exception: energy. Not a shock with oil up so much. SPY is down nearly 7%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is +13% and the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up +5%. And if you look at the top SPX/SPY stocks for the month, they are virtually all in energy: And you know what’s not on the list? 5. Mag 7 Really Is the Lag 7 The Mag 7 used to place to be, but no more. All 7 are underperforming SPY/SPX this year, with Microsoft (MSFT) bringing up the rear, down nearly 26%: Many of these names are starting to look like value stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) is trading at 20 times forward earnings, even though it’s expected to grow earnings by 74% this year. If this was 1984, Peter Lynch would be drooling. But the market’s undergone a sea change. Three years ago, everyone was focused on the promise of AI. Now, the market’s more worried about the sustainability of capex spending growth amid a lack of clear real-world benefits. According to a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research, 90% of companies said AI has had no impact on employment or productivity. Of course, we’re still in the early innings. And anecdotally, I’ve seen plenty of people in small companies make amazing use of AI. I wouldn’t want to live without it myself.
Continue Reading -->Bear Market Survival Guide
JR Romero and Sami Abusaad agree: the market topped out. The real questions is how do we survive a bear market? They explain in this video: JR and Sami go over: Where they agree, and where they disagree What told them this market is in trouble The signal sent by names like Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) Whether the President can save the market Why Sami does not ignore the news, and why JR tracks it Why JR is trading garbage stocks The problem with just doing what used to make you money How you can adapt to changing conditions The problem with feeling stressed over current conditions And more!
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