Sentiment Report: Volatile Markets, Neutral Traders
In last week’s sentiment report, traders were somewhat fearful, even with stocks rising like a phoenix off the February 9 low. Since that low, we had: -6 straight days up with markets finishing near the highs each day -2 down days -1 anemic up day with a finish near the day’s lows So let’s measure how traders are feeling in this new age of volatility. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish On Tuesday, February 6, the VIX hit a multi-year high at 50.30, and it’s slowly drifted back under 20, which puts it within range of historical norms. The VIX curve is still inverted, with a 3-month spread around -1.5. This means traders are still pricing in significant volatility, which makes sense. Ever since volatility exploded in early February, we’ve seen a huge expansion in range. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 15, which is flat from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 15 means traders are very fearful (or bearish). This is a shocking change. Fear & Greed was at 76 just a month ago. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey shows that 44.7% of those surveyed are bullish. This is down 3.8% from last week’s 48.5% reading. The long-term average is 38.4%, so we’re back in bullish territory. But keep in mind that AAII sentiment tends to lag the action a bit. It was pretty neutral for most of 2017, even with markets hitting one record high after another. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The long-term average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.63. The 10-day moving average is now 0.662, which is basically in-line with the long-term average of 0.654. Options traders were insanely bullish from December through early February. Then they got incredibly bearish as markets started breaking down. Now they’re looking neutral. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 1 bullish (flat from last week) 1 neutral (up from 0 last week) 2 bearish (dowm from 3 last week) Ack! We’re in the most boring positions possible. Stocks are consolidating and sentiment looks just a tad bearish. There’s no extreme in the technical position of the markets, and there’s no extreme in sentiment either. That makes it hard to have a firm opinion on where things can go from here, but here’s an ideal possible scenario for the bulls. We keep bouncing sideways for the next month or so, perhaps between 2660 and 2760, with several breakdowns and breakouts that don’t have follow-through. If that happens, perhaps bearish sentiment will build up to provide the market with upside fuel for a breakout back towards the 2872.87 high. On the flip side, the best scenario for the bears would be a slow, ugly descent before a major break below the SPX’ 200 day moving average, which was lost and then quickly reclaimed on the big 2/9 rebound day. Here’s an SPX chart laying out these levels: Another thing to wonder about is whether we’ve set a higher baseline range for the VIX. As you can see, it spent an awful lot of time between 9 and 15, which was outrageously low. It will be interesting to see if traders price in a “closer to normal” range for expected volatility. (Related: Primer on the VIX)
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:Using Classic ‘Tape Reading’ Skills with NVDAWhy the Stock Market Is Ignoring Strong EarningsA Top Trader’s Most Accurate StrategyAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Using Classic ‘Take Reading’ Skills with NVDA (T3 Live)Expert trader Jeff Cooper shows you how a ‘Lizard’ sell signal in the SPY gave us a nice setup in leading semiconductor name Nvidia (NVDA). Watch the Video -> 2) Art Cashin warns there’s a chance the market could retest February’s correction lows (CNBC)Wall Street vet Art Cashin warns that there’s a chance the stock market could retest the massive lows seen earlier this month. Read the Article -> 3) The stock market is ignoring ‘one of the strongest earnings seasons on record’ (Marketwatch)Investors may not be paying enough attention to one of the most significant – and most positive – trends in the economy. Read the Article -> 4) Risky Crypto Bet Blows Up Dennis Gartman’s Retirement Account (Bloomberg)Making big bets on speculative assets with retirement money is something most advisers warn against, but Bitcoin fever is prompting all sorts of puzzling decisions. Read the Article -> 5) Inside Ifan Wei’s Most Accurate Strategy of 2017: ‘The Gap Bully and Gap Bury’ (T3 Live)Black Room Moderator Ifan Wei describes how an idea developed into his most accurate strategy for 2017 Read the Article -> 6) Dow Theory shows market turmoil isn’t signaling a coming crash (USA Today)Panic is a bad investment strategy. Yet that is exactly how many investors reacted this month when the stock market dropped precipitously. Read the Article -> 7) Trading LRCX with the Time Frame Continuity Strategy (T3 Live)In this Quant Edge lesson, Rob Smith discusses the rotation into the semiconductor stocks, and reviews a day trade in Lam Research (LRCX). Read the Article -> 8) Wall St. climbs as tech stocks, Amazon gain (Reuters)The Fed left rates unchanged at the January meeting, but investors will look for its opinion on inflation and interest rates, especially after strong economic data raised concerns of an overheating economy and triggered the recent selloff. Read the Article -> 9) Apple in Talks to Buy Cobalt Directly From Miners (Bloomberg)Apple Inc. is in talks to buy long-term supplies of cobalt directly from miners for the first time, according to people familiar with the matter. Read the Article -> 10) What Successful People Do Every DayLearn what successful people do that others don’t.
Continue Reading -->The Gap Bully and Gap Bury | Black Room Lessons | Ifan Wei
Black Room LessonsWith Ifan WeiIn today’s lesson Ifan teaches one of his top strategies: The Gap Bully and Gap Bury. — This is an interesting lesson because Ifan describes how an idea developed into his most accurate strategy for 2017. — He walks us through the criteria for the setup and gives multiple examples from the month of FebruaryJoin Sami and Ifan in the Black Room Just $7 for Your First 30 Days Watch today’s lessons then join the Black Room for 30 daysSami Abusaad Black Room
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: High Fear, Higher Stocks
Last week, following the explosion in market volatility, the bulls were finally brought down to earth after 13 months of straight-up action. In January, sentiment was as bullish as I’ve ever seen it in my 14 years of watching the market. Now, traders are clearly more fearful, even with 6 days of bullish buy the dip action. Let’s dig into our handy dandy sentiment indicators so you can see just how much things have changed. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish On Tuesday, February 6, the VIX hit a multi-year high at 50.30, and it was around 30 last Friday morning. But with stocks rebounding hard this week, the VIX elevator dropped down hard. As of late Friday morning, the VIX was around 18, right in-line with historical averages. The 3-month VIX spread is right around 0 now. This means traders are still pretty bearish. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 15, up from just 8 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 15 means traders are very fearful (or bearish). This is a shocking change. Fear & Greed was at 76 just a month ago. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey shows that 48.5% of those surveyed are bullish. This is up huge from last week’s 37% reading. The long-term average is 38.4%, so we’re back in bullish territory. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The long-term average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.64. And from December 7, 2016 to February 1, there wasn’t a single day above that long-term average, which means there was an above-average level of call buying. The trend changed on Friday, February 2. Since then, the CBOE equity put-call has averaged 0.716, which means a sudden increase in demand for put options. So options traders went from incredibly bullish to moderately bearish. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 1 bullish (up from 0 last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 3 bearish (up from 0 last week) Things have changed, and traders are presented with quite the interesting pickle. Sentiment has changed so much in the past 2 weeks, and it’s evident that fear levels are very high. Traders are freaked out, and perhaps rightly so. We went an eternity without a real pullback, so it could be argued that we should have had a bigger one. However, Friday marked the 6th straight day of buy the dip action, and the VIX is back to normal levels. This is is right out of the 2017 playbook. That was when it made sense to buy every single dip, regardless of the news and the ‘feel’ of the market. If you didn’t comply, you sat back and watched the train leave the station with all the money, every single time. The big question now is this: is the sudden rush of negative sentiment a sign that there is sufficient buying power on the sidelines to keep the market going? And if the SPX keps going to say, 2800, will buyers rush because of the greatest fear of all? You know, the Fear Of Missing Out.
Continue Reading -->Level Two Scalping Method | Black Room Lessons
In today’s lesson Sami Abusaad reviews an old-school trading style known as “level two” trading. This method was the primary trading strategy for most prior to stocks changing to decimals.Does this “scalping” method still work? Sami says YES, and he shows you how to use it.
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:Trading the VXX Explosion with Options in PlayIs Somebody Rigging the VIX?Today’s Hot Inflation Report, and What It Could Mean for the FedAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Trading the VXX Explosion with Options in Play (T3 Live)In this options trading video lesson, Daniel Darrow explains why the VXX explosion should not be a surprise. Watch the Video -> 2) What If Somebody Really Is Gaming the VIX? (Bloomberg)The claim sounds dubious: the VIX, that index at the center of the stock market’s wild gyrations over the past week, is somehow being manipulated. Read the Article -> 3) U.S. inflation firms broadly in January, puts spotlight on Fed (Reuters)U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in January, with a measure of underlying inflation posting its biggest gain in a year, strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve will have to quicken the pace of interest rate increases this year. Read the Article -> 4) Boeing and these other Dow stocks outperform when inflation is running hotter (CNBC)Boeing and Apple are among the top performing components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average one week after inflation readings come in greater than expected, history shows. Read the Article -> 5) Jeff Cooper’s SPX Momentum Targets (T3 Live)Jeff gives us profit targets on recent SPX momentum trades on the long side. Read the Article -> 6) Coincheck Exchange Sees $373 Million Withdrawn in One Day (Coindesk)Japan’s Coincheck exchange reinstated Japanese yen withdrawals yesterday and investors are already flocking to take out their funds following the firm’s recent hack. Read the Article -> 7) How I Called the Friday Market Bottom (T3 Live)Learn why this top trader called the bottom last Friday, and how to know if it will stick. Read the Article -> 8) If you’re under 40 you should be hoping for another stock plunge, says pundit Josh Brown (LA Times) It’s normal in that pretty much 5% and 10% corrections are an annual event if you look back through history. What’s abnormal was the speed with which this one happened. Read the Article -> 9) Google’s Chrome ad blocking arrives tomorrow and this is how it works (The Verge)Google is enabling its built-in ad blocker for Chrome tomorrow (February 15th). Chrome’s ad filtering is designed to weed out some of the web’s most annoying ads, and push website owners to stop using them. Read the Article -> 10) How Elon Musk Improves His Odds of SuccessLearn why Elon Musk doesn’t believe in wishful thinking.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: The Fear Factor
It took a while, but the bulls were finally brought down to earth after 13 months of straight-up action. And sentiment was remarkably positive from December 2017 until last Friday when volatility exploded, leading to the VIX spiking over 50 on Tuesday morning. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels. But it actually took 2 whole months for that to happen during this once-in-a-life-time stretch of happiness! Now, let’s take a look at how the mood has changed using our handy dandy sentiment indicators. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish As of Friday morning, the VIX was hovering right around 30. It was actually under 10 in early January, so this is a major change. And the 50.30 spike high matched the 53.29 high set in the August 2015 mini-crash. The 3-month VIX spread is completely blown out at around -10. This means traders are very bearish and expect a lot of volatility. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 8, down from 59 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 8 means traders are very fearful (or bearish). This is a shocking change. Fear & Greed was at 76 just a month ago. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey shows that 37% of those surveyed are bullish. This is down from 44.7 last week. The long-term average is 38.4%, so this is basically neutral. Interestingly, this indicator was mostly neutral in 2017, and only turned bullish in January 2018 — implying that individual investors were a bit late to the party. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The long-term average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.654. And from December 7, 2016 to February 1, there wasn’t a single day above that long-term average, which means there was an above-average level of call buying. The trend changed on Friday, February 2. Since then, the CBOE equity put-call has averaged 0.736, which means a sudden increase in demand for put options. A single-day reading around 1 would indicate extreme fear, and we’re not even close to that yet. In the past 5 days of volatility, the highest reading was 0.77. So options traders are bearish, but only moderately so. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 0 bullish (down from 4 last week) 1 neutral (up from 0 last week) 3 bearish (up from 0 last week) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. I threw in that sentence “Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky” for a very good reason. These indicators are for color. They are only one part of the investment process, not signals on their own. Turns out that sentiment indicators were not very helpful in calling the 2018 top, because they’ve been very bullish since early December. So unfortunately, they may not be helpful in calling the bottom either!
Continue Reading -->Bitcoin’s Fall From Grace, and Where It’s Going Now
In this video, Kurt Capra takes a look at bitcoin and its fall from grace plus where he thinks it is headed. You will learn: Where the power of the 200ma comes from If bitcoin can get back to $10,000 How to see support and resistance using price points If a test of $6,000 is in the cards https://www.facebook.com/T3Live/videos/10155834921686758/
Continue Reading -->Volatility Is Picking Up but Nobody Cares
Sentiment has been remarkably bullish since December 2017. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but as we’ve learned in this once-in-a-life-time stretch of happiness, there’s no guarantee. And indeed, even though volatility reared its head this week, the bulls stayed pretty dang happy. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if traders are still feeling happy. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Three weeks ago, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX hit a 6-month high of 15.42 this week, but it came down to around 13. Now, on the surface, that may imply that traders are slightly more cautious. However, the curve of the VIX futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatility for the next few months. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 59, down from 72 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 59 means traders are moderately greedy (or bullish). So no real change here. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.8% of survey respondents are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.3%. It’s slightly down from last week’s 45.5% level, but still bullish overall. We did see an uptick in investors calling themselves bearish, but it’s nothing dramatic. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.59. This is slightly below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.558, which is extremely low on a historical basis. So it’s the same old story: traders are buying up call options like they’re hotcakes, and they’re not buying many puts. Of course, that’s worked out beautifully for bulls because the market hit a string of new all-time highs in January! Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for the last 3 weeks: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! Now, no one knows how this is going to end, or when. It’s very fashionable to point out that eventually, the market’s going to blow up in the bulls’ faces… but people have been saying that for years. So let’s take things one step at a time. The bears will eventually have their day in the sun, but we just don’t know when. One thing’s for sure though: volatility is starting to pick up, so stay on guard. The bears have been fooled time and time again, but sooner or later, they are going to bite.
Continue Reading -->Shake-Out Or Correction?
They say the trend is your friend, but is the trend bending? How can one determine the trend? First you have to define trend. Trend is different for every trader. It depends on the time frame they are trading. Then you must know that there are trends running concurrently like a double helix. There are many methods and strategies that market participants use to determine when a pullback is a buying opportunity or a pullback is something more than a pullback. The 3 Day Chart and the 3 Week Chart are two of the best tools I know of to determine the near term trend and the intermediate trend. The 3 Day Chart turns down anytime there are 3 consecutive lower daily lows OR a prior circled 3 Day low is violated (a prior swing low which marked a trough). The 3 Day Chart turns up with 3 consecutive higher highs or on trade above a prior circled 3 Day Chart high. The 3 Week Chart turns down anytime an item shows 3 consecutive lower weekly lows—or on trade below a prior circled 3 week circled high. The 3 Week Chart turns up anytime an item shows 3 consecutive higher weekly highs —or a prior 3 week circled high is cleared. Let’s take a look at an SPX daily from the last major swing low on August 21st. The last time the 3 Week Chart turned down was on the week of August 21. The index set a low at 2417 on an undercut of its 50 day line. The last time the 3 Day Chart turned down was on November 15th. Notice that there was roughly 90 days/degrees between the August low and the November low. The natural 90/180/270 and 360 day/degree divisions of the year are integral to Gann analysis. The November 15th turndown of the 3 Day Chart also was a test of the 50 day moving average. Today the SPX is poised for a possible turndown of its 3 Day Chart if it trades below yesterday’s low. This will trace out 3 consecutive lower daily lows. Importantly, this is occurring as the index satisfies a 90 degree price pullback. From last Friday’s record 2872 high, 90 degrees down is 2818. Notice that despite the selling pressure of the last two days the SPX has held 2818 on a closing basis. It slipped under 2818 yesterday to a low of 2813 but recovered to close at 2823. Importantly, January 31, yesterday, is 90 degrees square the number 2813 on my Square of 9 Wheel. So we have so to speak, a double square-out on the table: The SPX has satisfied a 90 degree price pullback. Yesterday was a possible time/price square-out with 2813 being 90 degrees square of January 31st. It’s still a bull market so these square-outs must be respected. That said the 3 Day Chart has not turned down yet. It could do so today. Trade below Wednesday’s low that that sets a low and turns up either today or Friday suggests a low of some degree. However there are a few caveats that suggests this time is different that November. First of all the index is dealing with a Break Away gap directly off an all time high. It looks like a Gallows Hangman pattern. This suggests last Friday’s rip was a Buying Climax…at least in the short run. Additionally, the SPX is stretched well above its 50 day moving average—a conspicuous difference between the August and November lows. The presumption is that if the SPX turns down its 3 Day Chart and it does not define a low, it’s going lower. The indication is that if 2818 and 2813 fail to act as support, the SPX is headed lower. The conclusion would be that we have a change in character and that rather than a shakeout, a more meaningful correction is playing out. So let’s do the geometry. A 180 degree decline from high is 2766. 360 degrees down is 2662. This would be one full cycle in price down from the 2872 record high. There is some good symmetry to the idea of a decline to around 2662. It represents a 50% retrace of the last leg up (from the August low). It marks a little burst of volatility in early December which was the mid-point of the rally. 2662 also ties to a test/undercut of the 50 day line. Additionally, a decline that flushes the 50 day satisfies a test of a trendline connecting the August low and the November low. The January low is 2682.36. Trade by one tick below that level in February would also satisfy a turn down in the Monthly Swing Chart. If that occurs, bull or bear, the strong likelihood would be for a continuation of the bull or a reaction higher even if a bear market is on the table. The last time the Monthly Swing Chart turned down was in November 2016. It’s stretched. The probabilities are that it will turn down. If it does not do so in February…180 degrees/days from the August low, it may do so in March on trade below whatever the February SPX low is…going into the NINTH anniversary of the March 2009 low. Whenever it turns down, it will be a significant inflection point. Be that as it may, the price action here going into the weekend will tell the tale as to whether we’re in just a short-term shakeout or a more meaningful correction is on the table. Because 2 X the 455 point range of the leg up from August is the range of the 910 point bear market from Oct ’07 to March ’09, the symmetry suggests that the 2872 high (a square-out as January 26 is 180 degrees opposite 2872) may have marked the end of a significant Buying Climax—one which should at least see the deepest correction in the last 14 months. Interestingly, 455 is opposite the date of March 6th…the low
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