Sami Abusaad: How I Traded Equifax for a $2,000 Profit in 4 Days
In this special video, Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad walks you through how he traded shares of credit reporting agency Equifax (EFX), which went into meltdown mode after a major security breach. In this video, Sami’s going to breakdown his Equifax trade, which earned him $2,000* in profit in just 4 days. *Click here for a breakdown on Nightly Game Plan P&L calculations Sami’s going to walk you through: The sideways trend in QQQ How to use the 20-period moving average to judge the trend A breakout/shakedown play in Express inc. (EXPR) on the daily chart A beautiful buy setup in Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) after a pro gap up A weekly buy setup in Adtran (ADTN) A weekly transition sell setup in Masimo (MASM) Sami’s official trade of the week in Equifax (EFX), which has been under fire for a major security breach How to spot a potential bottom in a collapsing stock Sami’s strategy for his profitable exits on the trade Why Sami finally closed the position Click here to learn about Sami’s Nightly Game Plan
Continue Reading -->Do Traders Love the Russell Rocket?
For most of September, stock market sentiment has been very bullish as indices made new highs. But with this week’s astounding surge in the Russell 2000, have the bulls truly gone crazy? Some traders believe this could be the start of a new “risk-on trade” into year-end, while others think this is the calm before the storm — especially since we’re heading into October, a historically volatile period. So let’s take a look at our 4 sentiment indicators to see how traders are feeling. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX hit a low of 9.51 on Friday morning, marking the 10th straight day with a sub-10 print. Meanwhile, the 3-month spread is at +4.2, which means traders are very, very bullish. When this number moves above +4.5, then it’s a clear sign of froth, and we could be there very soon. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 83, up from 66 last week. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 83 qualifies as extremely greedy. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 33% of individual investors are bullish, down substantially from 40.1% last week. Frankly, I find this reading bizarre, since it was taken on Thursday, right after Wednesday’s massive small cap rally. However, this reading has been pretty depressed all year, so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at just 0.52 on Thursday, which well below the long-term average of 0.655. It’s also the lowest reading since June 22, 68 trading days ago. The 10-day moving average is 0.641, which is slightly below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options. So we have a hyper-bullish short-term reading combined with a slighly bullish 10-day trend. On balance, that makes traders moderately bullish. If we see more rock-bottom readings, that could be a sign of true complacency. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral (down from 1) 1 bearish (up from 0) We have 3 bullish, 0 neutral, and 1 bearish indicators this week. The crowd is still fairly bullish overall, but a little bit less so than last week, based on the drop in the AAII survey and more neutral bent to the CBOE equity put-call, Thursday’s extreme reading notwithstanding. This week’s readings are a little less crazy than last week’s but make no mistake about it: the crowd is very bullish. Looking forward, things are obviously a bit tricky. The Russell 2000 and banks are strong, which is a good thing, but it’s starting to look like they’ve come too far too fast. We’re also seeing weakness in market leader Apple (AAPL), and stagnation in the biotech sector, which is always a key area to watch to judge traders’ risk tolerance. The top callers are still coming out of the woodwork, but keep one thing in mind: trends are always tricky to judge because they can go a lot further than many seem reasonable.
Continue Reading -->Your Intro to Options Trading: The ABC’s of Calls and Puts
Are you ready to start trading options?’ Then you’re in luck. You’re about to get a 100% FREE crash course in options trading, comprised of 5 in-depth articles: You’re going to understand how options work in the real world without understanding complex math or financial theory. You’re going to understand vital concepts like implied volatility and time decay, and you’ll get 3 simple strategies that you can use to speculate on stock price movements. Contrary to popular belief, options are actually not that complicated. And they’re not inherently risky — you can take as much, or as little risk as you want. Are you ready to start learning? Let’s go! What Are Options? Derivatives are securities which are priced based upon the price of another security, like a stock, ETF, index, or commodity. And options are the best-known form of derivatives. In this series, we’re going to focus exclusively on options on stocks and ETF’s. Options represent the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a certain stock at a certain price by a certain date. And as the price of the underlying stock fluctuate, those rights change in value. A sports betting analogy can help you understand this concept. An option is at its most basic level a bet on a bet. You’re betting that the value of the bet itself will change. Let’s say it’s the start of the NFL season, and we think the Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl. Options would allow us to bet that the value of a bet on the Packers to winning the Super Bowl will rise or fall. If the Packers win their first 10 games in a row, that bet will be worth a lot of money. But if they only win 5, it won’t. Calls vs. Puts Call options give a trader the right but not the obligation to buy a certain stock at a certain price by a certain date. All things being equal, when a stock price rises, the price of a call option goes up. Therefore, the buyer of the call option wants the price of the underlying stock to rise. Put options give a trader the right but not the obligation to sell a certain stock at a certain price by a certain date. All things being equal, when a stock price falls, the price of a put option goes up. So the buyer of the put option wants the price of the underlying stock to fall. Why Even Bother with Options? First, options require less capital to trade than stocks. Let’s assume we’re bullish on Tesla. If Tesla (TSLA) is trading at $380, it would take $38,000 to buy 100 shares of the stock. However, we could buy a call option on Tesla for $2,000 or less, giving us exposure to 100 shares of Tesla at a low cost. So options give you a lot more bang for your buck in terms of upside potential. On the downside, options have a fixed expiration date. You can theoretically wait forever for a stock to move, but an option has to move in your favor quickly. (In a future article, we’ll explain the role of time in options prices.) Otherwise, it will decline in value or expire worthless, giving you a 100% loss. And that’s just long options. Shorting options — a practice we don’t endorse — is even more dangerous, and can destroy your trading account. And that’s the trade-off: options require less capital and they have huge upside potential. But you also face serious downside risk. Another benefit of options is that they can be used to hedge an equity portfolio or individual stock positions at a reasonable cost. And finally, options are incredibly flexible. With options you can speculate that a stock will rise, fall, or even do nothing. Yes — you can use options to make money if a stock does absolutely nothing. We’ll be going over a strategy for this in the future. Strike Prices and Expiration Dates All options have a strike price and an expiration date. If a person says “I bought NVDA $180 November calls,” they are telling you two things: They have the right but not the obligation to buy NVDA at $180 (the strike price) That right expires in November And a person says “I bought TSLA $350 January puts,” they are telling you two things: They have the right but not the obligation to sell TSLA at $350 (the strike price) That right expires in January Most options expire on Fridays at 4:00 p.m. ET. Large-cap stocks tend to have options that expire every week. Small and mid-cap stocks sometimes have options that expire only on the third Friday of each month. The Basics of Options Contracts and Exercising Options Most options contracts represent 100 shares. So buying 1 call option gives you the right to buy 100 shares. 2 contracts give you the right to buy 200 shares. To determine the dollar value of an option, take the current price and multiply it by 100. If an option is trading at a price of $1, it actually costs $100 to buy. As we told you above, when you buy a call option, you have the right to buy a stock at a certain price by a certain date. Let’s say we own 1 NVDA $180 November call. This means that at any time before the November expiration date, we can buy 100 shares of NVDA at $180. Assume NVDA skyrockets on earnings and hits $200. We can then do two things: We can sell the option itself for a profit. Or, we can exercise our right to buy the stock, and purchase 100 shares for $180. That gives us an instant profit of $20 per share, or a total of $2,000. (minus whatever we paid for the call option in the first place) What Is an Options Contract? Options are not like stocks, which have a certain number of shares outstanding. Options don’t actually exist until a buyer and seller come
Continue Reading -->Did Breaking SPX 2500 Put a Spell on the Bulls?
Last week, sentiment among traders went all-out bullish as the SPX flirted with the 2500 mark for the first time ever. Subsequently, the SPX grinded up to set a new all-time high at 2508.85 before backing down just a bit. So let’s see what’s changed this week. Are traders encouraged by a more hawkish Fed? Do they care at all about North Korea? Let’s find out using our 4 sentiment indicators. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX is once again hovering around the 10 level after going as low as 9.54 this week, indicating that traders are not pricing in much volatility. The 3-month spread is at +3.98, which means traders are fairly bullish. When this number moves above +4.5, then it’s a clear sign of froth, and we could get there soon. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 66, down slightly from 73 last week. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 66 qualifies as moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 40.1% of individual investors are bullish. This is down slightly from 41.3% last week. This 40.1% reading indicates that individual investors are basically neutral, though it’s much higher than readings we’ve seen throughout 2017. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.66 Thursday, which is right in line with the long-term average of 0.655. The 10-day moving average is 0.625, which is below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options. Stretching out things just a little bit more, this measure has been below the long-term average for 14 of the last 18 trading days. So there have been a lot of folks gunning for more upside through the options market. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (flat from last week) 1 neutral (flat) 0 bearish (flat) We have 3 bullish, 1 neutral, and 0 bearish indicators this week. This week’s readings are a little less crazy than last week’s but make no mistake about it: the crowd is very bullish. Last week, I said to watch for a possible drop in the VIX to the 9.5 to 9.75 range, which could mark extreme complacency. As noted earlier, we got a 9.54 VIX print on Thursday, and maybe we’re about to find out if that did indeed mark a near-term top. Keep in mind, we’ve had a lot of moments like this in 2017. Sentiment gets super-bullish, technicals look stretched, and the leaders start breaking down. We’re certainly seeing that with profit-taking in names like Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA), as well as the biotech sector. And every time, just when it looks like all is lost, the market pulls a rabbit out of its hat and just keeps on chugging. The market ‘feels’ shortable, but one thing has me hesitating: the surging Russell 2000, which has been showing relative strength and looking to makes it own all-time high. That’s a sign there’s still an appetite for risk out there, and perhaps more upside to come.
Continue Reading -->Sami Abusaad: How to Trade a Slow and Sleepy Market
In this special video, Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad walks you through how he traded a sleepy week for stocks. Typically, Sami showcases one of his swing trades so you can understand his strategies, but this was a particularly slow week, so instead, he’s going to break down a variety of this trades: In the video, Sami’s going to walk you throgh The extremely tight trend in QQQ, which didn’t matter in August, but which matters now The time frames Sami uses for finding patterns and perfecting entries The bearish 1-2-3-4 continuation pattern The weekly buy setup in Adtran (ADTN) An after-hours entry in Microbot Medical (MBOT) Why Sami bought the controversial Equifax (EFX) Earnings plays in Steeelcase (SCS) and Copart (CPRT) (click here to learn about Sami’s Earnings Play strategy) Click here to learn about Sami’s Nightly Game Plan
Continue Reading -->2017: The Year of Zero Panic… for Now
“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” -Soren Kierkegaard The Fed said they would continue to tighten and was perceived as more hawkish and the market fell for a half hour before the Fed likely stepped in to support the market while Yellen was speaking. Today or tomorrow, we should get an idea if there are real sellers around. Most NAZ names are under selling pressure and were flat or being sold yesterday while ETF’s supported the market. The Decennial Cycle was a major factor in W.D. Gann’s forecasts of the stock market. This refers to years ending in 2 being good lows and years ending in 5 being strong rally years in what Gann called the Year of Ascension. Years ending in 7 often were marked by panicky selling. The 100 year cycle is the mother of the Decennial Cycle. The crisis that began in 2007 was 100 years after the 1907 Rich Man’s Panic. It didn’t matter that there were not collateralized debt obligations. The cycles still exerted their influence. A further 100 years back to 1807 saw major panics in the US and Europe related to trade and war which evolved into depression. 1995 to 2000 marked a runaway bull market. The same occurred between 1895 and 1900. Ditto 1795-1800. However, 2015 was not a Year of Ascension in the stock market. It was more or less flat. Subsequently, the market played upside catchup. Likewise, 1927 did not see panicky selling. The result was that the continued ramp in the market into 1929 means that the cycles played an ugly game of downside catchup in 1929. Likewise, we have not seen panicky selling in this year ending in 7, 2017. The year is not over. Did you ever wonder why October has seen so many blood baths in the market? October is the 7 month (7 symbolizing panic, completion) from the ‘natural’ beginning of the year, March 21. We are going into the 7th month of a year ending in 7. Tomorrow is the Autumnal Equinox, the day that the legendary W.D. Gann called the day more likely to see a trend reversal than any other day of the year. Tomorrow’s report will examine some of the reasons why Gann thought the fall equinox was so important. Suffice to say that the days surrounding this particular fall equinox may be the most historic in 6,000 years according to the constellations. As for the significance of the fall equinox in the markets, there were the October massacres of 1978 and 1979 and the crash of 1987, the mini crash of 1989, the 1997 Asian collapse and the Long Term Capital Market plunge. Gold stocks topped on September 22 in 1980 which tied to the peak in may oil stocks that year. (Remember that the all-time high in gold was also in a September in 2011). Going back further, on September 22, 1929, the Dow Jones Utility Index became the final major average to make high before the Crash of ’29. The lesson there being that money ran into utility stocks after other stocks topped on September 3 that year, but that ultimately there is no place to run and no place to hide when panic hits the tape. Everything is a source of funds when indiscriminate selling is let out of the cage and the margin man cracks his whip. In 2008, the markets went into freefall in the days following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The fall equinox that year marked chaos in the markets when the House of Representatives rejected TARP. Currencies have seen historic changes around this date as well. The British pound was removed from the gold standard and devalued 28% on September 21, 1931. On September 22, 1985, the Group of Five produced the Plaza Accord, which perpetuated a sharp decline in the dollar and expansion of global liquidity. There was a Black Wednesday on September 16, 1992 when Britain was forced to withdraw from the European Exchange Mechanism. Treasury note and bond yields made their historic highs in late September 1981. That marked the end of a 35-year bond bear market from the end of WW2. We have seen a 35 year bull market in bonds since that time. The beginning of September 2000 was the test failure high in the SPX of its March high that year. This year we saw an important high in March at 2401 SPX (an important level) and 6 months later the SPX hit 2509… an important range of 108 points 180 degrees later. We will delve more into the significance of 108 tomorrow but 3 X 360 is 1080 and in Gann and in geometry, you can always move the decimal point. Three is one of the secrets in Gann’s coded novel The Tunnel Thru the Air found on page 69. Conclusion. So what is the setup going into this Autumnal Equinox? The dollar had a big day yesterday and continuation above 93.50 could be a sign of a change in trend. Alternatively, a failure here should see an accelerated decline in the dollar in October. Oil is flirting with a breakout over 51 which could see 55. The oil stocks have come to life in recent weeks and our OAS and FMSA swing positions have been working nicely. Gold has pulled back to test the double tops at 1300. I did not think it would pull back this far, but if a new leg up starts and exceeds the recent highs and 1360, it should mark a strong advance. So in that respect, this reaction could be simply pulling the rubber band back for a major move. The semi-conductor stocks saw a sharp break yesterday on issues and orders concerning the new iPhone and watch. A weekly SOX shows a large range weekly reversal bar on the week of June 6. The SOX set a new high above the former peak and a quick stab lower will issue a weekly Soup Nazi
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:The latest twist in the Fed’s rate policy adventureThe danger of individual investors are jumping into stocksWhy the $1,000 iPhone X may actually be cheapAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed:1) Fed Signals Another 2017 Rate Hike, Asset-Shrinking to Start Next Month (Bloomberg)Federal Reserve officials set an October start for shrinking their $4.5 trillion stockpile of assets, moving to unwind a pillar of their crisis-era support for the economy. They continued to forecast one more interest-rate hike later this year, saying storm damage will have only a temporary impact on the economy.Read the Story ==>2) The masses are going all-in for stocks, and that’s not a good thing (MarketWatch) The latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index hit 138 in September, its highest level in 17 years. That was in September 2000, when investors still couldn’t shake their denial that the bull market of the 1990s was over.Read the Story ==>3) Tim Cook says the $1,000 iPhone X is a ‘value price’ – and he’s right (Boy Genius Report)The iPhone X represents a number of firsts. The iPhone X is the first iPhone in history to incorporate facial recognition. The iPhone X is also the first iPhone to do away with the home button, a staple of every single iPhone since the beginning. And economically, the iPhone X is the first iPhone to ever break the $1,000 threshold.Continued Reading ==>4) From Russia with fuel – North Korean ships may be undermining sanctions (Reuters)At least eight North Korean ships that left Russia with a cargo of fuel this year headed for their homeland despite declaring other destinations, a ploy that U.S. officials say is often used to undermine sanctions.Continued Reading ==>5) Merkel warned Germany needs a policy rethink to keep economy growing (CNBC)Angela Merkel is likely to win a fourth term as chancellor after a national election on Sunday but business leaders are already warning her that the next government must implement growth-friendly policies to ensure Germany remains the euro zone’s largest economy.Continued Reading ==>6) Ray Dalio, the Steve Jobs of Investing (Tim Ferriss Blog)Ray Dalio (@raydalio) grew up a middle-class kid from Long Island. He started his investment company Bridgewater Associates out of a two-bedroom apartment at age 26, and it now has roughly $160 billion in assets under management.Over 42 years, he has built Bridgewater into what Fortune considers the fifth most important private company in the U.S.Continue Reading ==>7) Why You Need to Know the Only 4 Stages of Market Movement (T3 Live) If you want to be an expert swing trader, then you have to understand the Foundation of stock movement, broken down into 4 clear stages:AmbivalenceGreedIndecisionFearContinue Reading ==>8) Bitcoin’s Parimutuel Problem (Or Why Shorting Doesn’t Pay Today) (CoinDesk) When the price of bitcoin plunges — as it did last week — seasoned investors are caught in a market that doesn’t exactly have the mechanisms they’re used to. Case in point, hedging long positions, is today a difficult prospect. Unlike most traditional stocks, where investors can open a margin account with their broker that allows them to short most shares, the tools in bitcoin are few and far between.Continue Reading ==>9) What Makes a Great Trader? An Interview with Jack Schwager (CFA Institute)If you peruse the Wikipedia entries that describe some of the world’s great investors, you’ll often find that they share a common footnote: a series of books entitled “The Market Wizards” which feature Jack Schwager’s profiles of a number of successful traders.Continue Reading ==> 10) How to Get Out of Your Own Head and Take Action (YouTube) In this video, author Mel Robins shows you how to stop worrying about your troubles, and start taking action.
Continue Reading -->4 Names to Watch for Next Week
In the video below we highlight 4 names that have shown relative strength to the market this week and are in a prime position to see additional follow through in the coming days/weeks.
Continue Reading -->Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy?
This week, the SPX set multiple records with a new all-time high at 2498.43. And the index is still within striking distance of 2500, even with a missile launch in North Korea and a terror attack in London. So are traders complacent? Are the bulls asleep at the wheel? Let’s find out using our 4 sentiment indicators. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX is once again hovering around the 10 level, indicating that traders are not pricing in much volatility. The 3-month spread is at +3.86, which means traders are fairly bullish. When this number moves above +4.5, then it’s a clear sign of froth. We’re obviously not there yet. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 73, nearly doubling from 38 last week. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 73 qualifies as fairly bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.3% of individual investors are bullish. This is up huge from 29.3% last week. This 41.3% reading indicates that individual investors are neutral, though it’s much higher than the year-to-date average of 32.9%. This reading has been fairly depressed all year, so I was surprised to see such a big jump, even with the market’s upward momentum. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.56 Thursday, which is well below the long-term average of 0.655. The 3-day moving average is 0.5633, and the 10-day moving average is 0.598. Both are also below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (up from 2 last week) 1 neutral (up from 1 last week) 0 bearish (down from 1 last week) Traders are much, much more bullish than last week, and this is perhaps best seen in the AAII Sentiment and CBOE equity put-call measures. AAII sentiment isn’t bullish. But it’s made a huge jump, and a relatively large number of individual investors just got on board the bull train. The CBOE equity put-call is even more interesting. It has been below the long-term average for 11 of the past 13 trading days, which implies that traders are loading up on calls. I love trolling the permabears by correctly pointing out that they always say everyone’s bullish — even when the numbers clearly point to bearishness. But today, the permabears are right. The crowd is very bullish, which leads to a very logical question: are we set for a fall? It’s tough to say. I would watch for a drop in the VIX to the 9.5 to 9.75 range. That could mark extreme complacency, providing a possible opportunity to speculate on a market dip and spike in volatility. In such a scenario, I would certainly consider buying SPY puts, since they provide a cheap, efficient, and liquid way to speculate on a market decline.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Risk-On Ahead of the Weekend
Catch T3 Live’s latest Morning Call Express video with Kurt Capra:
Continue Reading -->