Did Breaking SPX 2500 Put a Spell on the Bulls?
Last week, sentiment among traders went all-out bullish as the SPX flirted with the 2500 mark for the first time ever. Subsequently, the SPX grinded up to set a new all-time high at 2508.85 before backing down just a bit. So let’s see what’s changed this week. Are traders encouraged by a more hawkish Fed? Do they care at all about North Korea? Let’s find out using our 4 sentiment indicators. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX is once again hovering around the 10 level after going as low as 9.54 this week, indicating that traders are not pricing in much volatility. The 3-month spread is at +3.98, which means traders are fairly bullish. When this number moves above +4.5, then it’s a clear sign of froth, and we could get there soon. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 66, down slightly from 73 last week. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 66 qualifies as moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 40.1% of individual investors are bullish. This is down slightly from 41.3% last week. This 40.1% reading indicates that individual investors are basically neutral, though it’s much higher than readings we’ve seen throughout 2017. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.66 Thursday, which is right in line with the long-term average of 0.655. The 10-day moving average is 0.625, which is below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options. Stretching out things just a little bit more, this measure has been below the long-term average for 14 of the last 18 trading days. So there have been a lot of folks gunning for more upside through the options market. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (flat from last week) 1 neutral (flat) 0 bearish (flat) We have 3 bullish, 1 neutral, and 0 bearish indicators this week. This week’s readings are a little less crazy than last week’s but make no mistake about it: the crowd is very bullish. Last week, I said to watch for a possible drop in the VIX to the 9.5 to 9.75 range, which could mark extreme complacency. As noted earlier, we got a 9.54 VIX print on Thursday, and maybe we’re about to find out if that did indeed mark a near-term top. Keep in mind, we’ve had a lot of moments like this in 2017. Sentiment gets super-bullish, technicals look stretched, and the leaders start breaking down. We’re certainly seeing that with profit-taking in names like Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA), as well as the biotech sector. And every time, just when it looks like all is lost, the market pulls a rabbit out of its hat and just keeps on chugging. The market ‘feels’ shortable, but one thing has me hesitating: the surging Russell 2000, which has been showing relative strength and looking to makes it own all-time high. That’s a sign there’s still an appetite for risk out there, and perhaps more upside to come.
Continue Reading -->Sami Abusaad: How to Trade a Slow and Sleepy Market
In this special video, Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad walks you through how he traded a sleepy week for stocks. Typically, Sami showcases one of his swing trades so you can understand his strategies, but this was a particularly slow week, so instead, he’s going to break down a variety of this trades: In the video, Sami’s going to walk you throgh The extremely tight trend in QQQ, which didn’t matter in August, but which matters now The time frames Sami uses for finding patterns and perfecting entries The bearish 1-2-3-4 continuation pattern The weekly buy setup in Adtran (ADTN) An after-hours entry in Microbot Medical (MBOT) Why Sami bought the controversial Equifax (EFX) Earnings plays in Steeelcase (SCS) and Copart (CPRT) (click here to learn about Sami’s Earnings Play strategy) Click here to learn about Sami’s Nightly Game Plan
Continue Reading -->2017: The Year of Zero Panic… for Now
“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” -Soren Kierkegaard The Fed said they would continue to tighten and was perceived as more hawkish and the market fell for a half hour before the Fed likely stepped in to support the market while Yellen was speaking. Today or tomorrow, we should get an idea if there are real sellers around. Most NAZ names are under selling pressure and were flat or being sold yesterday while ETF’s supported the market. The Decennial Cycle was a major factor in W.D. Gann’s forecasts of the stock market. This refers to years ending in 2 being good lows and years ending in 5 being strong rally years in what Gann called the Year of Ascension. Years ending in 7 often were marked by panicky selling. The 100 year cycle is the mother of the Decennial Cycle. The crisis that began in 2007 was 100 years after the 1907 Rich Man’s Panic. It didn’t matter that there were not collateralized debt obligations. The cycles still exerted their influence. A further 100 years back to 1807 saw major panics in the US and Europe related to trade and war which evolved into depression. 1995 to 2000 marked a runaway bull market. The same occurred between 1895 and 1900. Ditto 1795-1800. However, 2015 was not a Year of Ascension in the stock market. It was more or less flat. Subsequently, the market played upside catchup. Likewise, 1927 did not see panicky selling. The result was that the continued ramp in the market into 1929 means that the cycles played an ugly game of downside catchup in 1929. Likewise, we have not seen panicky selling in this year ending in 7, 2017. The year is not over. Did you ever wonder why October has seen so many blood baths in the market? October is the 7 month (7 symbolizing panic, completion) from the ‘natural’ beginning of the year, March 21. We are going into the 7th month of a year ending in 7. Tomorrow is the Autumnal Equinox, the day that the legendary W.D. Gann called the day more likely to see a trend reversal than any other day of the year. Tomorrow’s report will examine some of the reasons why Gann thought the fall equinox was so important. Suffice to say that the days surrounding this particular fall equinox may be the most historic in 6,000 years according to the constellations. As for the significance of the fall equinox in the markets, there were the October massacres of 1978 and 1979 and the crash of 1987, the mini crash of 1989, the 1997 Asian collapse and the Long Term Capital Market plunge. Gold stocks topped on September 22 in 1980 which tied to the peak in may oil stocks that year. (Remember that the all-time high in gold was also in a September in 2011). Going back further, on September 22, 1929, the Dow Jones Utility Index became the final major average to make high before the Crash of ’29. The lesson there being that money ran into utility stocks after other stocks topped on September 3 that year, but that ultimately there is no place to run and no place to hide when panic hits the tape. Everything is a source of funds when indiscriminate selling is let out of the cage and the margin man cracks his whip. In 2008, the markets went into freefall in the days following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The fall equinox that year marked chaos in the markets when the House of Representatives rejected TARP. Currencies have seen historic changes around this date as well. The British pound was removed from the gold standard and devalued 28% on September 21, 1931. On September 22, 1985, the Group of Five produced the Plaza Accord, which perpetuated a sharp decline in the dollar and expansion of global liquidity. There was a Black Wednesday on September 16, 1992 when Britain was forced to withdraw from the European Exchange Mechanism. Treasury note and bond yields made their historic highs in late September 1981. That marked the end of a 35-year bond bear market from the end of WW2. We have seen a 35 year bull market in bonds since that time. The beginning of September 2000 was the test failure high in the SPX of its March high that year. This year we saw an important high in March at 2401 SPX (an important level) and 6 months later the SPX hit 2509… an important range of 108 points 180 degrees later. We will delve more into the significance of 108 tomorrow but 3 X 360 is 1080 and in Gann and in geometry, you can always move the decimal point. Three is one of the secrets in Gann’s coded novel The Tunnel Thru the Air found on page 69. Conclusion. So what is the setup going into this Autumnal Equinox? The dollar had a big day yesterday and continuation above 93.50 could be a sign of a change in trend. Alternatively, a failure here should see an accelerated decline in the dollar in October. Oil is flirting with a breakout over 51 which could see 55. The oil stocks have come to life in recent weeks and our OAS and FMSA swing positions have been working nicely. Gold has pulled back to test the double tops at 1300. I did not think it would pull back this far, but if a new leg up starts and exceeds the recent highs and 1360, it should mark a strong advance. So in that respect, this reaction could be simply pulling the rubber band back for a major move. The semi-conductor stocks saw a sharp break yesterday on issues and orders concerning the new iPhone and watch. A weekly SOX shows a large range weekly reversal bar on the week of June 6. The SOX set a new high above the former peak and a quick stab lower will issue a weekly Soup Nazi
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:The latest twist in the Fed’s rate policy adventureThe danger of individual investors are jumping into stocksWhy the $1,000 iPhone X may actually be cheapAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed:1) Fed Signals Another 2017 Rate Hike, Asset-Shrinking to Start Next Month (Bloomberg)Federal Reserve officials set an October start for shrinking their $4.5 trillion stockpile of assets, moving to unwind a pillar of their crisis-era support for the economy. They continued to forecast one more interest-rate hike later this year, saying storm damage will have only a temporary impact on the economy.Read the Story ==>2) The masses are going all-in for stocks, and that’s not a good thing (MarketWatch) The latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index hit 138 in September, its highest level in 17 years. That was in September 2000, when investors still couldn’t shake their denial that the bull market of the 1990s was over.Read the Story ==>3) Tim Cook says the $1,000 iPhone X is a ‘value price’ – and he’s right (Boy Genius Report)The iPhone X represents a number of firsts. The iPhone X is the first iPhone in history to incorporate facial recognition. The iPhone X is also the first iPhone to do away with the home button, a staple of every single iPhone since the beginning. And economically, the iPhone X is the first iPhone to ever break the $1,000 threshold.Continued Reading ==>4) From Russia with fuel – North Korean ships may be undermining sanctions (Reuters)At least eight North Korean ships that left Russia with a cargo of fuel this year headed for their homeland despite declaring other destinations, a ploy that U.S. officials say is often used to undermine sanctions.Continued Reading ==>5) Merkel warned Germany needs a policy rethink to keep economy growing (CNBC)Angela Merkel is likely to win a fourth term as chancellor after a national election on Sunday but business leaders are already warning her that the next government must implement growth-friendly policies to ensure Germany remains the euro zone’s largest economy.Continued Reading ==>6) Ray Dalio, the Steve Jobs of Investing (Tim Ferriss Blog)Ray Dalio (@raydalio) grew up a middle-class kid from Long Island. He started his investment company Bridgewater Associates out of a two-bedroom apartment at age 26, and it now has roughly $160 billion in assets under management.Over 42 years, he has built Bridgewater into what Fortune considers the fifth most important private company in the U.S.Continue Reading ==>7) Why You Need to Know the Only 4 Stages of Market Movement (T3 Live) If you want to be an expert swing trader, then you have to understand the Foundation of stock movement, broken down into 4 clear stages:AmbivalenceGreedIndecisionFearContinue Reading ==>8) Bitcoin’s Parimutuel Problem (Or Why Shorting Doesn’t Pay Today) (CoinDesk) When the price of bitcoin plunges — as it did last week — seasoned investors are caught in a market that doesn’t exactly have the mechanisms they’re used to. Case in point, hedging long positions, is today a difficult prospect. Unlike most traditional stocks, where investors can open a margin account with their broker that allows them to short most shares, the tools in bitcoin are few and far between.Continue Reading ==>9) What Makes a Great Trader? An Interview with Jack Schwager (CFA Institute)If you peruse the Wikipedia entries that describe some of the world’s great investors, you’ll often find that they share a common footnote: a series of books entitled “The Market Wizards” which feature Jack Schwager’s profiles of a number of successful traders.Continue Reading ==> 10) How to Get Out of Your Own Head and Take Action (YouTube) In this video, author Mel Robins shows you how to stop worrying about your troubles, and start taking action.
Continue Reading -->4 Names to Watch for Next Week
In the video below we highlight 4 names that have shown relative strength to the market this week and are in a prime position to see additional follow through in the coming days/weeks.
Continue Reading -->Did a Whiff of SPX 2500 Makes the Bulls Crazy?
This week, the SPX set multiple records with a new all-time high at 2498.43. And the index is still within striking distance of 2500, even with a missile launch in North Korea and a terror attack in London. So are traders complacent? Are the bulls asleep at the wheel? Let’s find out using our 4 sentiment indicators. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX is once again hovering around the 10 level, indicating that traders are not pricing in much volatility. The 3-month spread is at +3.86, which means traders are fairly bullish. When this number moves above +4.5, then it’s a clear sign of froth. We’re obviously not there yet. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 73, nearly doubling from 38 last week. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 73 qualifies as fairly bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.3% of individual investors are bullish. This is up huge from 29.3% last week. This 41.3% reading indicates that individual investors are neutral, though it’s much higher than the year-to-date average of 32.9%. This reading has been fairly depressed all year, so I was surprised to see such a big jump, even with the market’s upward momentum. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.56 Thursday, which is well below the long-term average of 0.655. The 3-day moving average is 0.5633, and the 10-day moving average is 0.598. Both are also below the long-term average, and indicate higher-than-normal demand for call options. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (up from 2 last week) 1 neutral (up from 1 last week) 0 bearish (down from 1 last week) Traders are much, much more bullish than last week, and this is perhaps best seen in the AAII Sentiment and CBOE equity put-call measures. AAII sentiment isn’t bullish. But it’s made a huge jump, and a relatively large number of individual investors just got on board the bull train. The CBOE equity put-call is even more interesting. It has been below the long-term average for 11 of the past 13 trading days, which implies that traders are loading up on calls. I love trolling the permabears by correctly pointing out that they always say everyone’s bullish — even when the numbers clearly point to bearishness. But today, the permabears are right. The crowd is very bullish, which leads to a very logical question: are we set for a fall? It’s tough to say. I would watch for a drop in the VIX to the 9.5 to 9.75 range. That could mark extreme complacency, providing a possible opportunity to speculate on a market dip and spike in volatility. In such a scenario, I would certainly consider buying SPY puts, since they provide a cheap, efficient, and liquid way to speculate on a market decline.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Risk-On Ahead of the Weekend
Catch T3 Live’s latest Morning Call Express video with Kurt Capra:
Continue Reading -->Sami Abusaad’s Trade of the Week: NLNK
In this special video, Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad walks you through a winning trade in Newlink Genetics (NLNK). Biotechnology stocks have been hot as of late, but few are hotter than NLNK, which recently skyrocketed on positive results from a clinical study. After NLNK’s rally, Sami spotted the opportunity for a Climactic Sell Setup, giving him a profit of over $3,100 in 4 days*. Here’s how the trade worked: *(click here for a breakdown of our P&L calculations) In the video, Sami’s going to walk you through the trade from start to finish so you can understand: Why NLNK showed up on his radar What qualified NLNK as a climactic play Where Sami set his entry, stop, and target for a 3:1 reward:risk ratio How the Climactic Sell Setup works Why he used the 5-minute time frame on this trade The pattern that signaled a breakdown in NLNK was coming Click here to learn about Sami’s Nightly Game Plan
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today? We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:Why Apple May Have Pulled Off a Genius Move with the $1,000+ iPhone XAn important lesson learned from superstar money manager Seth KlarmanHow T3 Live’s Jeff Cooper spotted a home run trade in Fairmont Santrol Holdings (FMSA)And more! So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Don’t laugh — that $1,000 iPhone could be a genius move for Apple (MarketWatch) Is the $999 price tag for the iPhone X too high? Some people clearly think so. They think Apple has finally overreached. They think this thing could be Tim Cook’s folly. Apple stock, which had risen on news of the new cellular Apple Watch, slid after the high-end phone was unveiled. Read the Story ==> 2) Markets Are Hard: Seth Klarman Edition (A Wealth of Common Sense) Klarman isn’t as well known to the general investing public as some of his peers but his track record ranks right up there in terms of the greatest of all-time. When someone like Klarman makes these types of warnings it’s hard to ignore. Read the Story ==> 3) Secrets of Successful Speculation: Riding the FMSA Rocket (T3 Live) A trader’s job is to narrow one’s field of vision and cull for the very best setups: the more one tries to see, the less one sees. In this game, there is so much going on that it’s easy to get overwhelmed. As the old saw goes, less is more. Continued Reading ==> 4) Top House Tax Writer Says Overhaul Framework Coming Week of Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) Kevin Brady, the chief House tax writer, told the chamber’s Republicans that White House advisers and congressional leaders working on a tax plan will release a framework the week of Sept. 25. Specifics, including such basic matters as where to set the corporate tax rate and how to set up individual tax brackets, have yet to emerge. Continued Reading ==> 5) Brazil police detain JBS CEO Batista on suspicion of insider trading (Reuters) Brazil’s federal police on Wednesday detained the chief executive officer of JBS SA, the world’s No. 1 meatpacker, saying he used insider information to avoid hefty losses related to a plea bargain signed earlier this year. Continued Reading ==> 6) Pandit Says 30% of Bank Jobs May Disappear in Next Five Years (Bloomberg) Vikram Pandit, who ran Citigroup Inc. during the financial crisis, said developments in technology could see some 30 percent of banking jobs disappearing in the next five years. Artificial intelligence and robotics reduce the need for staff in roles such as back-office functions, Pandit, 60, said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda Amin in Singapore. Continue Reading ==> 7) 9 Ways to Destroy Your Account with Options (T3 Live) Options trading is fun. Options trading is sexy. And options trading can destroy your account if you don’t know what you’re doing. Continue Reading ==> 8) Why Is North Korea So Interested in Bitcoin? (FireEye) In 2016 we began observing actors we believe to be North Korean utilizing their intrusion capabilities to conduct cyber crime, targeting banks and the global financial system. This marked a departure from previously observed activity of North Korean actors employing cyber espionage for traditional nation state activities. Continue Reading ==> 9) U.S. middle-class incomes reached highest-ever level in 2016, Census Bureau says (Washington Post) The incomes of middle-class Americans rose last year to the highest level ever recorded by the Census Bureau, as poverty declined and the scars of the past decade’s Great Recession seemed to finally fade. Continue Reading ==> 10) Miami Nun Uses Chainsaw to Remove Downed Trees (CBS Miami via YouTube) Hurricanes Harvey and Irma did untold amounts of damage to countless families. But it’s also brought out the best in Americans all across the country, as everyday people step up to help their neighbors. In this video, watch a nun pick up a chainsaw to clear trees in her Miami neighborhood. As a YouTube commenter pointed out, she wasn’t exactly following chainsaw safety protocol, but it’s heartwearming nonetheless…
Continue Reading -->Traders Are Betting on a Market They Hate
Last week, traders got fairly bullish following the massive bounce off Tuesday’s spike low. This week, things are tricker. The North Korea situation is not going away, Hurricane Irma is on the horizon, and the safety trade is picking up, with Treasury yields dropping like rocks. So let’s see what kind of mood the bull is in ahead of the weekend. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX hit a low of 10.02 last Friday morning, putting it in close range of generational lows. It’s hovering around 12 today. The 3-month spread is at +3.10, which means traders are somewhat bullish. However, they’re clearly not as bullish as last week when this reading was at +4.41. Readings of +5 should be considered outright froth, so we’re not even close to that territory. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 38, down from 46 last Friday. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 38 qualifies as modestly bearish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 29.3% of individual investors are bullish. This is up from 25% last week. This 29.3% reading indicates that individual investors are slightly bearish. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.55 Thursday, which is well below the long-term average of 0.655. The 3-day moving average is 0.5933, which is below the long-term average and thus bullish. These numbers indicate that traders are very bullish Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 2 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 2 bearish (up from 1 last week) We have 2 bullish, 0 neutral, and 2 bearish indicators this week. This is a slight degradation from last week, when traders were in a fairly buoyant mood. I find it interesting that the CBOE equity put-call ratio has been so bullish as of late. The equity put-call has been below the long-term average for 9 of the past 10 days. Unless traders are shorting massive amounts of calls, it looks like there are a whole lot of folks betting on a big rebound to new all-time highs above SPX 2490. This implies some level of complacency. However, the AAII Sentiment Survey remains depressed, even though the SPX is less than 2% off the record. This says that a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines, or are at least worried about the market. And that’s been a common trend all year. Bullish AAII readings have averaged just 32.9% this year. Let’s compare that to 2007, since people love comparing current market conditions to the last top, even though using a sample size of 1 is completely unscientific. From the start of 2007 to 9/6/2007, bullish AAII readings averaged 41.8%. So the overall market picture is pretty weird. I suspect that for some time, traders have been holding their noses while hitting the buy button, and that certainly seems to be the case today. There’s a lot of money riding on an extension of the bull market. But people don’t trust it. Isn’t it ironic?
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