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Morning Call Express: Digestion or Indigestion
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler discusses the weakness we saw yesterday and what we can expect this week. He also maps out how the recent “Trump Rally” had similar action to the Brexit move. Scott also looks at the chart of Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), and Gold (GLD).
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Another Record High
The SPX finally squeezed through to make a post-election all-time high yesterday to catch up with the Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. And with futures in modestly positive territory, we very well could see another record at the open. The VIX is now down to 12.43, and as I’ve said, it could drop under 12. Check out the chart below — it’s getting down towards yearly lows. Commodities are up in the early going, with crude oil posting modest gains and gold up 0.6%. The volatile gold miners (GDX) are indicated up nearly 1%. Copper’s also in good shape. Nigeria expressed optimism about a possible OPEC deal announcement at the November 30 meeting. But overall, it’s hard to make heads and tails of everything because it’s a holiday shortened weak. Markets appear stretched technically but sentiment is only modestly bullish, which typically isn’t a good recipe for excitement. In fact, bears are probably still unwinding all the bearish bets they made ahead of the US Presidential election. Speaking of politics, news reports indicate that the Trans-Pacific Partnership has almost no chance of working since President-elect Trump vowed to withdraw. Trump said would look to make bilaterally negotiated trade deals, and end some restrictions on shale oil and coal production. For now, things are looking pretty slow. I’ve got close eyes on gold and the miners. Gold’s been destroyed since the election, but it’s getting a strong bounce off $1200, which could mean a double bottom. Biotech is indicated up pre-market. That’s a good sign. It ripped on the Trump victory, then stumbled a bit. If it makes a power move higher, that could signal continued momentum in the major indices. Good luck out there!
Continue Reading -->Trump Made Traders Like the Market Again
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side provides evidence for their views. So I like regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 5 sentiment measures I track, traders hated the market ahead of the November 8 US Presidential election. As you’ll see, that’s clearly changed. Let’s Dive In: 1) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 46.7% of individual investors are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.5%. This is the highest level seen since February 2015. 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 62. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral. This 62 reading indicates moderate bullishness. 3) VIX Spread – Bullish The 3-month VIX spread is at +4.69, which indicates traders are pricing in very low near-term volatility. This means traders are bullish. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio is at 0.65, with a 3-day moving average of 0.62. This indicates slightly higher-than-average bullishness, but nothing extreme, so I’ll leave it in the neutral category. 5) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 79 (79 calls for every 100 puts) this morning — which is a bearish reading. And the 10-day moving average is 82.9. That also indicates bearish sentiment. ******* Pre-election, 5 of 5 sentiment indicators were reading bearish. Now we have 3 bullish indicators, 1 neutral, and 1 bearish. So Trump not only changed the minds of a lot of voters, he’s changed traders too. And if the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs again, we could easily see the bulls go 5 for 5 in our next sentiment check.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Stalling or Digesting?
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews markets around the World as well as the U.S. Markets. The question to now answer is; are we seeing a digestion or stall? Scott looks at various sectors as well, including USO and XLE.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: America Speaks
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the impact of Donald Trump being elected the next President of the United States of America. Scott talks about where the markets were at the lowest point, overnight, and where it is looking to open. He helps put things in perspective and provides a roadmap to navigate today’s open. Scott also discusses the reaction in biotech land and gold.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Election Day
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about how today’s election may impact the markets both today and tomorrow. Scott reviews the technical picture over the last week to week and half and what it suggests for price moving forward. He also shows the support and resistance levels to be watching. How to Thrive in the Future of Trading Want to go Quant without a PhD? Check out our latest live event here: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10626572
Continue Reading -->Bears Trump Bulls Ahead of the Presidential Steel Cage Match
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side ever provides evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 5 sentiment measures I track, traders are certainly looking bearish heading into November 8’s Presidential election. Donald Trump’s wild-card image seems to be roiling traders’ nerves because of all the possible variables. Does he win? Does he lose? Does he lose and contest the outcome? Who really knows at this point? So let’s drill down to the numbers: 1) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 23.6% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.5%. But what’s really interesting is that bullishness has been below the long-term 38.5% average for 51 straight weeks, and 84 of the last 86. 2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 31 this morning — that’s just 31 calls for every 100 puts. And the 10-day moving average is 80 — that’s the type of reading you see after a major volatility spike, not before one. 3) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio has been over 1 for the past 4 days. That indicates serious bearishness. 4) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 17. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral. This 17 reading indicates extreme fear. 5) VIX Spread – Bearish The 3-month VIX spread is at -0.3, which indicates traders are pricing in high near-term volatility. This is bearish. ********* So we have all 5 of these sentiment indicators pointing bearish, and they’re likely to get more bearish as traders hedge against possible post-election downside. Interestingly, I hear a lot of traders chattering about going long into the election on the assumption that downside is already priced in. We’ll certainly see!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Pre-election Oversold Bounce?
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about what has happen overseas and how that impacts the U.S. Markets. He also discusses the Facebook (FB) earnings and how it is acting pre-market. Scott also looks at other high beta tech name along with GLD.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Connecting The Election Correction Technically
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler discusses the Fed day today and the likelihood that it is a non-event as the U.S. Presidential Election has taken center stage. He reviews the action in the SPX given the sell-off yesterday and updates the new levels of support and resistance. Scott also looks at the bounce that took place in the Biotech (IBB) and a couple high beta tech names.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Ranges and Noise
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler puts all this sideways action into perspective by looking at the longer term SPX chart. He then takes a look into the recent daily action, which has been choppy, to say the least. Scott notes that it is likely to stay this way until after the election. He also looks at some recent earnings names as well as FB which will report tomorrow.
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