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Morning Call Express: Pressure Mix
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the headwinds that the market is facing this morning. Specifically AAPL, now with earnings behind it and the levels that is has trading pre-market. He also talks about the levels he will be watching to trade around. Scott also reviews other high beta tech names as well as the recent action in Oil.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Sluggish With a Constructive Feel
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler updates the key levels of support and resistance on the SPX. He also talks about some earnings names that have reported as well as other names that are looking constructive.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPX, GOOGL, BABA
This morning the SPX futures are pretty much flat as things feel stuck below 2144-2149 but above 2114-2124. We’ll patiently wait to see which way this resolves as company earnings are released. Individual names will be better to focus on as there is more movement in them, for now. Google (GOOGL) finally gave a cleaner move above $816-820 and hit as high as $828.81. If you sold some strength buying into this $820 zone, it would be good if it holds for additional gains thru earnings. My 2016 target is north of $850. BABA was another great focus from my 2016 report. It has been the most active for us since we listed it back at $81-$85 and then $93.50 and again at $95. At this point, it is near weekly highs and it looks like all time highs can happen this year. Right now, it’s digesting above $99 and I may look into a different option strategy for next quarters earnings.
Continue Reading -->Traders Don’t Get Much More Neutral Than This!
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side provides evidence for their views. So I like regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 7 sentiment measures I track, traders appear to be very, very neutral, even though the S&P 500 is still within a stone’s throw of the 2193 all-time high. 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out of the money 6 month SPX options. There is currently a 9.6 point skew in implied volatilities on the options. That’s the 86th percentile. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 86% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 25.5% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.5%. But what’s really interesting is that bullishness has been below the long-term 38.5% average for 49 straight weeks! 3) ISE Sentiment – Neutral The ISE Sentiment Index closed at 65 yesterday (81 puts for every 100 calls). And its 10 day moving average is just 101 — a level that indicates a neutral mood. 4) Wall Street Strategists – Neutral The average year-end target price for the S&P 500 is 2171, according to Bloomberg. That implies the market rises 1% into year-end. YAWN! 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.66 yesterday, which is just below the YTD average of 0.69. This points to neutral sentiment. 6) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 48. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral. So it’s basically right in the middle. 7) Investors Intelligence – Bullish Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers showed a slight decrease in bullishness to 46.1%. This is still a positive reading. ********* So we have 2 bearish indicators, 4 neutral indicators, and 1 bullish indicator. Blend them together and you have a moderately bearish crowd. I’m hearing a lot of bears say that everyone’s complacent… but I just don’t see it.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: A Leveled Approach
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about some of the talking points that has the SPX futures down this morning. He also offers one of the rules he follows to determine what trading style to implement. Scott also looks at the QQQ and Biotech Index and provides additional insight into the current state of the markets.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: AAPL Picking
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about how to navigate the current range and what levels to be looking at to trade around or, if nothing else, be aware of them. He also talks about AAPL, his recent trade in it, and where to look for it move heading forward. Scott also looks at some individual names.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Elections & Markets For Debate
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler covers the current range in the market, ahead of earnings season, and the levels to be looking at for clues. He also looks at a couple sectors, banks, high beta tech, and a few new issues.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Post-Debate Happiness
The Mexican peso is up 1.7% this morning, which means Mr. Market thinks Hillary Clinton won last night’s steel cage match US Presidental debate. Meanwhile, the pound sterling is still falling in the wake of Friday’s flash crash. Crude oil is rising after Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said crude could hit $60 by year-end. OPEC recently announced a production cut, though market participants would certainly like more detail. European equities are up for the first time in 4 days on strength in automakers, throuhg banks are still looking weak. Deutsche Bank (DB) failed to announce a deal with the Department of Justice as some traders expected. China resumed trading after a week-long holiday, and the yuan dropped to a fresh 6-year low. Goldman Sachs says that US and European markets could stumble a bit into year-end due to political risks, a weak economy in Europe, and high stock prices in the US. The US dollar is still in bull market mode despite Friday’s slightly soft jobs report. Traders are pricing in a 64% probability of a December rate hike, though keep in mind, the pace thereafter what matters. According to some very smart folks I’ve spoken with, there’s an excellent chance the Fed is one and done. However, gold is catching a bid today, so I’d watch for a pop in the beaten down gold miners (GDX). Apple (AAPL) is up fractionally this morning on news reports that Samsung temporarily stopped production of its Galaxy Note 7 smartphone. The device was already recalled, but even replacement models are catching fire, which is a PR disaster. SPX futures are up about 11 handles this morning, so we’re starting the week off on a positive note. Biotech is catching a bid this morning — it’s been lagging to see if the weak trend breaks.
Continue Reading -->Weekly Sentiment Report: Traders Are Pretty Darn Neutral
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side ever provides evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 6 sentiment measures I track, traders appear to be shockingly… neutral. Seriously, when I mash all the data together, I get a crowd that looks split right down the middle between bulls and bears. 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out of the money 6 month SPX options. There is currently a 9.6 point skew in implied volatilities on the options. That’s the 88th percentile. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 88% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 28.8% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.5%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%. Bearish sentiment is at 27.9%,down huge from last week, and slightly lower than the 30.3% long-term average. 3) Wall Street Strategists – Neutral The average year-end target price for the S&P 500 is 2171, according to Bloomberg. That implies a 1% gain into year-end. 4) ISE Sentiment – Neutral The ISE Sentiment Index closed at 130 yesterday (130 calls for every 100 puts). This is a bullish reading And its 10 day moving average is just 94 — a level that typically indicates modest bearishness. So we’ll call it neutral. 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.66 yesterday, which is just below the YTD average of 0.58. This points to slightly bullish sentiment. 6) Investors Intelligence – Bullish Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers showed a slight increase in bullishness to 46.7%. This is high relative to long-term averages. Bears fell to a 3-week low to 22.8%. ********* So we have 2 bearish indicators, 2 neutral indicators, and 2 bullish indicators. Blend them together and you have a crowd that looks pretty darn neutral. I’m hearing a lot of bears say that everyone’s complacent… but who are they talking about?
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Jobs Report Ahead
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the action in the market ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. Scot talso looks at high beta tech names along with a couple sectors and one or two new issues.
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