Tag Archives for " VIX "
The Sub-10 VIX Is About to Set a Crazy Record
Min Zeng of the Wall Street Journal just Tweeted a very interesting stat about the VIX: $VIX at 9.75, on pace to close under 10 for the seventh time this year–the most ever. I double-checked the data and indeed, Zeng is correct. But taking a deeper look at the data (my data set goes back to 1990), things get even more bizarre. All 6 of 2017’s sub-10 closes in the VIX happened on May 8 or later. (remember, today’s would make lucky number 7) And if get another sub-10 close, that would mark 5 in the past 7 sessions. Since 1990, the VIX has NEVER closed below 10 in 5 out of 7 sessions. So it’s on the verge of a truly incredible record. Already, the VIX has finished under 10 in 4 of the last 6 sessions. This has only happened 3 other times since 1990. Those 3 other occurences were on 12/28, 12/29, and 12/30 in 1993, during a streak when the VIX had 4 straight closes below 10. So the post-election collapse in volatility truly is remarkable. Now let’s take things a step further. Prior to May 8, 2017, there were only 9 sub-10 closes in the VIX. That’s right. Just 9 out of 6,891 trading days — or 0.13% of the time. And now we’re going on 5 in just 7 days — or 71%! This looks insane, but let me explain why it’s perfectly logical. The VIX represents expected volatility. And when actual market volatility goes to near-zero — as it has since President Trump’s victory — the VIX follows. Therefore, the VIX’ behavior is entirely logical. Anecdotally, I’ve been hearing a lot of traders chat up long positions in VIX-related instruments like VIX calls or VXX calls, or plain old SPY/SPX options. I’ll just leave you with one of the great all-time market one-liners: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes 2017 has been BRUTAL to traders betting on a rebound in volatility. You can know why it should happen, but you had better know when, or else you’ll be eaten alive by time decay, one penny at a time. So if you’re going to put your chips down… be very careful.
Continue Reading -->The Rise of Donald Trump and the Collapse of Volatility, by the Numbers
With the VIX hitting 9.69 today — a level not seen since February 2007 — I wanted to get an idea of just how slow the market is moving. To do so, I analyzed daily S&P 500 price data going back to 1950. Since November 9, 2016, the first trading day after President Trump’s victory, the S&P has moved an average of 0.3%* per day. (*percentages expressed in this article represent the daily percentage change expressed on an absolute basis. So if the market moves -1% on Monday and +1% on Tuesday, the average move is 1%) But going back to 1950, the daily average move is 0.7%! And here’s another funny stat. The average daily move in 2016 BEFORE Trump’s victory was 0.6% — pretty close to that long-term 0.7% average. So my 6th grade math proves that volatility collapsed after the election, even though we’ve had no shortage of market-moving news, between the Fed, French elections, Syria, North Korea, Trump/legislation, etc. Now let’s look at 1% daily moves. We’ve had 122 trading days since the election. And the S&P has moved 1% or more exactly 5 times. That’s 1 out of every 24.4 days. In 2016, before the election, the S&P was moving 1% once every 4.7 days. Long term, the S&P had 1% moves every 4.9 days. So we used to have a big move once a week. Now we’re getting them once a month… if we’re lucky. But what’s really interesting is that we also saw an extended period of low volatility prior to the last bull market peak on October 11, 2007 — though it wasn’t as quiet as this one. From January 1, 2007 to October 11, 2007, the market moved an average of 0.5% per day. 2006, a remarkably sedate year, also had an average daily move of 0.5%. So are we seeing parallels between 2007 and 2017? Maybe. Just remember this: if you’re drawing parallels between 2007 and 2017, you’re talking about a sample size of exactly 1. That’s not exactly scientific. So who’s to blame for the lack of volatility? ETF’s? Runaway algos and high frequency trading programs? Trump himself? Newly confident CEO’s that love slamming the buyback button? The Alphabet Soup Gang? (the Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE, etc.) All of them? If you have the answer, let me know when I wake up…
Continue Reading -->5 Sentiment Indicators You Need to Know About
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Most of the time, neither actually gives evidence for their views. That’s why we started T3 Live’s Weekly Sentiment Update. Our Weekly Sentiment Update eliminates opinions, feelings, hunches, and preconceived notions. That lets us strictly focus on the numbers and get a more accurate idea of just how bullish the crowd is. To do this, we take 5 sentiment indicators, break each one down, and then analyze what they mean as a whole. Why 5? Simple — lone sentiment indicators contradict each other all the time. At any given time, one sentiment indicator can read bullish, and another can read bearish. So it’s best to use a variety before forming an opinion. And the 5 we use are all available to the general public without any expensive subscriptions. Here they are, in no particular order: 1) VIX Curve If you understand the basics of the VIX, then you probably know that the VIX alone is useless as a sentiment indicator. And it has little value as a predictor of price. However, by comparing the spot price of the VIX to forward futures prices, you can get an idea of just how much volatility traders are pricing in. For example, if the spot VIX price today is 20 and the 3-month future is 18, that means that traders are pricing in significant short-term volatility. That of course means they’re bearish. Click here for a detailed primer on the VIX Curve 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index The CNN Fear & Greed Index uses a variety of factors including market momentum, junk bond demand, and market volatility to judge whether traders are more fearful (bearish) or greedy (bullish). I’m a big fan of this index because it operates on a simple 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed) scale, which eliminates a lot of guesswork. If you’re going to choose only 1 sentiment indicator to follow (which I don’t recommend), this is probably the one to pick because it focuses on actual market activity than polls and surveys. 3) American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey Speaking of surveys, every Thursday, I look forward to the release of the AAII Sentiment Survey. The AAII Sentiment Survey tells us whether individual investors are bullish, bearish, or neutral for the next 6 months. Since individual investors tend to get too bullish at tops and too bearish at bottoms, it’s good to know where they stand. AAII also provides in-depth commentary with its weekly Sentiment Survey data, which is very helpful in making comparisons to historical trends, and in figuring out what’s actually driving public opinion on the market. 4) Chicago Board Options Exchange Equity Put-Call Ratio The CBOE Equity Equity Put-Call Ratio tells us how many put options are traded vs. the number of calls. Reported at the end of each day, the CBOE equity-put call gives us a rough idea of how equity options traders view the market. On average, about 0.65 puts trade for each 1 call every day. When we see major shifts from that long-term average, it can indicate an extreme in sentiment, and a potential trend change in the market. 5) ISE Sentiment Index The ISE Sentiment Index is similar to the CBOE Put-Call ratio, but it has a few interesting twists to it. While many options-derived sentiment indicators are put-call ratios, the ISE Sentiment Index is actually a call-put ratio. The ISE also uses only opening long customer transactions, and eliminates market maker and firm trades. This discards many trades that are not clear bullish or bearish bets from sentiment calculations. For example, shorting puts is actually a bullish trade, and market makers may trade calls and puts strictly to hedge other transactions they make. The ISE also operates on a scale of 100, with 100 representing equal demand for calls and puts. And unlike the CBOE Equity Put-Call, the ISE is reported every 20 minutes on a slight delay. But bizarrely, even tough the ISE Sentiment Index seems better designed, since late December, I’ve found the CBOE Equity Put-Call Ratio more helpful. How You Can You Use Sentiment Indicators in Your Trading Typically, it’s better to buy when sentiment is very bearish, and it’s better to sell when sentiment is very bullish. But you must keep a few things in mind. First, analyzing sentiment is more art than science. Yes, we’re dealing with numbers, but I can tell you from experience that trying to turn them into buy or sell signals through quantitative analysis is extraordinarily difficult. Plus, extremes in sentiment can last quite a long time. For example, as of April 2017, the ISE Sentiment Index has been bearish for months and months. So don’t use sentiment indicators as buy or sell signals on their own. Just treat them as another piece of the puzzle, and incorporate them into your overall market and trend analysis. Let’s take the April 23 French election. After analyzing the 5 sentiment indicators listed above, I determined that traders were very bearish ahead of the news. Traders were clearly pricing in a negative outcome (namely, a victory by far-right populist Marine Le Pen). So if I had wanted to bet on a positive outcome, I would have been encouraged by the bearish sentiment. Why? Because when traders are very negative, positive news can drive huge rallies, which is exactly what we saw on April 24.
Continue Reading -->French Fried Bears: They’re What’s for Dinner!
The market is certainly pleased with the first round of the French Presidential Election. Emmanuel Macron scored a victory and is apparently in the driver’s seat to win the May 7 runoff against far-right populist Marine Le Pen. Le Pen supports a vote for a French exit of the election, and assuming Macron wins, a so-called “Frexit” may be off the table. I wouldn’t count Le Pen completely out just yet though. We’re still living in an era with the Brexit, President Trump, and Italy’s ‘No Vote.’ So anything is possible. Today, the SPX is up 1% and within striking range of the 2401 all-time high. XLF is up 2.4%. The euro is up 1.3% against the dollar. The French CAC 40 index is up 3.9%. And the VIX is down a whopping -23%. So why is this happening? Why are we making such a big move? It’s simple: the bears built a big, big fire. And then they fell in it. Last Thursday afternoon, I pointed out that trader sentiment was looking very bearish heading into the weekend election. As you probably now, the permabears have been out in force saying that everyone’s complacent. But the numbers showed otherwise. For example, the American Association of Individual Investors showed that just 25.7% of individual investors are bullish. That’s well below the long-term average of 38.5%. And as of Friday’s close, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE Equity Put-Call Ratio was 0.703, indicating that traders had been stocking up on puts ahead of the weekend. The last time it was that high was February 8, 2017, when SPX closed at 2294.67. The index then hit 2400.98 on March 1. And then, there’s the ISE Sentiment Index, which measures call options demand relative to put option demand using only opening long customer transactions. (market maker and firm trades are excluded) Its daily average has been just 84 this year, or 84 calls bought for every 100 puts. That’s well below long-term average readings. So there was certainly no shortage of bears heading into the weekend. (h/t to Marc Eckelberry for pointing this stat out on the Virtual Trading Floor® (VTF). And when you get a lot of bears bracing for a negative outcome — like a Le Pen victory — that means there’s ample fuel for a rally if the news is positive, or even neutral. The Lesson to Be Learned High stock prices and valuations do not necessarily equate to bullish sentiment. At its root, a bull market happens when there are consistently more optimists (buyers) than (pessimists) sellers. But even with us within 2% of all-time highs, the data shows that there’s still an awful lot of folks that are braced for downside. It doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense… but when is anything involved with the market perfectly logical?
Continue Reading -->What Is the VIX? And How Can I Trade It?
How can I make money trading the VIX? That’s one of the most popular questions we get from aspiring traders. And they usually don’t like the answer — because you can’t trade the VIX. The VIX — better known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index — is not a security, and thus the number you see on your screen is not a price. It’s actually a trading indicator. The VIX uses prices of various S&P 500 options with expirations between 23 and 37 days to measure traders’ expectations of volatility. The VIX helps us measure sentiment by telling us how much traders are willing to pay for these options. Typically, the VIX rises when traders are worried about downside risk. Why? Because when traders are worried about downside risk, they’ll pay higher prices for downside protection through options. Let’s take a look at a 10-year monthly chart of the S&P 500 (bar chart) against the VIX (purple line): The chart shows that the VIX had major spikes during the: A) Financial Crisis B) Flash Crash C) Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis D) August 2015 Minicrash This illustrates how the VIX rises when traders are scared and markets are coming under pressure. Why? Again, because traders were willing to pay up big for downside protection through S&P 500 options. The same dynamic plays out on shorter time frames. As you can see in this 20-day hourly chart, when the S&P 500 (bars) rises, the VIX (purple line) falls: And vice versa. What You Can Trade We told you before that you can’t trade the VIX directly, since it is an indicator. However, there are many derivatives of the VIX that can be traded. But before we proceed further, you must understand that virtually all VIX-related instruments can be tricky to deal with. And we urge you to read the prospectus and understand the pricing mechanics of any VIX-related instrument you trade. VIX Options and Futures The CBOE has created VIX futures and options. VIX futures trade nearly 24 hours, 5 days a week. And VIX options can be traded just as easily as a standard equity option. However, keep in mind that VIX options typically expire on Wednesday, and VIX options contracts are based on the price of VIX futures, not the VIX itself. VIX ETN’s There are many VIX-derived exchange traded products, the most popular of which is the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX). The VXX aims to deliver the return of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. Many traders also follow the Credit VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (TVIX), which aims to deliver twice the daily return of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. VIX ETN’s can be bought and sold like stocks. However, they only appropriate for short-term trading since they don’t track the VIX — they track VIX futures, which tend to naturally fall over time. Here’s a direct excerpt from the VXX prospectus: The index underlying your ETNs is based upon holding a rolling long position in futures on the VIX Index. These futures will not necessarily track the performance of the VIX Index. And for technical reasons related to the VIX futures term structure, they tend to decline over time: On the flip side, shorting these instruments over the long run is not easy because of margin requirements and other issues. Plain Old SPY Options The easiest way to trade changes in the VIX may be to just trade SPY options. They’re very liquid and easy to trade with none of the complex mechanics involved with VIX futures, options, and ETN’s. For example, if you think the VIX is set to increase sharply, rather than messing with VIX products, you could simply buy SPY put options. Why? Because a higher VIX means higher put options prices. Remember, the VIX is a measure of implied volatility on S&P 500 options. And all things being equal, when implied volatility goes up, options prices go up. (click here for a primer on implied volatility) And on the flip side, to speculate on a falling VIX, one could simply buy SPY call options, since a falling VIX is typically associated with rising stock prices. Sure, the VIX products are sexier and more exciting, but for newcomers to trading, simpler is often better.
Continue Reading -->How to Use the VIX Curve to Judge the Market’s Mood
Many traders view the VIX — formally known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index –as a stress gauge for the market. (click here for an introduction to the VIX) But knowing the level VIX alone isn’t very helpful, and it has little value as a predictor of price. One way of getting real value out of the VIX is comparing it to the prices of VIX futures. The VIX uses implied volatility levels on a variety of S&P 500 options expiring in 30 days to estimate traders’ expectations of volatility. So if we compare the VIX with prices of VIX futures expiring later in time, we can get an idea of the market’s mood. We do this by looking at the VIX curve, which is a plot of VIX future prices by expiration. Typically, the VIX curve slants up and to the right because the prices of later-dated futures are higher. Here’s an example from VIXCentral.com: This is called a state of contango. If you think about VIX futures as insurance, this makes perfect sense. Why? Because when there’s more time to expiration, there’s more of a chance that insurance will pay off. If you want to buy VIX futures because you think the VIX will spike 25%, you have a far greater chance of having your bet pay off if you have 6 months to expiration rather than 3. Therefore, the seller of VIX futures will charge higher prices for later-dated futures. On the flip side, occasionally, the VIX curve will invert — or enter what is called backwardation. Here is an extreme example from August 24, 2015, when the market had a mini-crash: As you can see, the near-term VIX futures prices are higher than the later-dated ones. This means that traders expect so much near-term volatility that they’ll pay tremendous amounts of money for VIX futures that are close to expiration. So how can you make sense of all this? One good rule of thumb is to use the 3-month VIX curve as a proxy for fear in the market. This is calculated by taking the VIX future expiring in 90 days, and subtracting the VIX spot price from it. So if the VIX future expiring in 90 days is priced at 15 and the VIX spot price is 11, the 3-month curve is calculated as +4. And if the VIX future expiring in 90 day is priced at 14 and the VIX spot price is 15, then the 3-month curve is priced at -1. Generally speaking, here are some 3-month VIX curve levels you can use to determine how optimistic or fearful traders are. +5: Traders are extremely bullish and in danger of being complacent +4: Traders are very bullish +3: Traders are optimistic +2: Traders are neutral +1: Traders are moderately bearish 0 or below: Traders are very fearful Just keep in mind that as with all sentiment indicators, the VIX curve should not be used a buying or selling indicator on its own. Rather, it should be considered as another potentially helpful tool in your decision making process.
Continue Reading -->Weekly Sentiment Update: That Is a Moderate Bull I See!
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side provides evidence for their views. So let’s see how traders are feeling into today’s inauguration: 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The 3-month VIX spread is at +3.65, which indicates traders are not very concerned with volatility This is a bullish reading. 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 80. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 80 is in extreme greed territory. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.1% of individual investors are bullish, which is below the long-term average of 38.5%. This indicator is slightly bearish. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio is at 0.58 with a 3-day moving average of 0.57. This indicates higher-than-average bullishness. 5) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 85 (85 calls for every 100 puts) this afternoon – which is a bearish reading. And the 10-day moving average is 77.3. This also indicates bearish sentiment. Conclusion Out of 5 sentiment indicators, we have 3 bullish and 2 bearish. Interestingly enough, the VIX spread has contracted from 5 to 3.65 over the past week, which implies that options market players are backing off their bullish bets a bit. And the ISE Sentiment Index implies that traders are still buying plenty of downside protection, though to be fair, that indicator seems to be losing predictive value. This could be because of Trump-related uncertainty. So overall, traders appear moderately bullish.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: The Trump Bump Continues!
The State of the Markets, Straight from Scott Redler Download Scott’s FREE presentation now by clicking this link: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10692005 Yesterday, markets staged a big rally following an overnight session that was so bad that SPX futures went limit down. Traders were disappointed with Donald Trump’s historic victory over Hillary Clinton, The Trump Bump continues this morning, with SPX and NDX futures well into positive territory, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.1%. One big story in the news today is that following the Brexit and Donald Trump’s US Presidential election victory, we could see even more major political upheavals. Now many folks think that Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Front party, could become President of that nation next year. And Italy has a major reform referendum vote coming up on December 4 aimed at limiting the powers of regional governments in order to streamline legislation. But that could get rejected since Italian PM Renzi supported Hillary Clinton, which does not fit with the growing wave of global populism. All across the globel, the establishment is becoming less established. Maybe THAT is the big trading/investing theme we need to focus on. We could even look at Germany. PM Merkel has been considering running for a 4th term. Polls have indicated that about half of Germans oppose that. If she does run, I suspect she would get destroyed. The tide is just too strong. Anyway… The VIX is still falling and is under 14 this morning. So all those put buyers that were scrambling to buy election protection are getting decimated once again. The ISE Sentiment Index was just 68 yesterday even with the rally, pushing the 10 day moving average down to 67.4. That implies very, very negative sentiment. The 10 day moving average of the CBOE equity put call is 0.735, which is slightly above the YTD average. So we have a lot of hedges that probably need to be unwound, and that could propel the S&P 500 to record highs. Good luck out there!
Continue Reading -->Bears Trump Bulls Ahead of the Presidential Steel Cage Match
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side ever provides evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 5 sentiment measures I track, traders are certainly looking bearish heading into November 8’s Presidential election. Donald Trump’s wild-card image seems to be roiling traders’ nerves because of all the possible variables. Does he win? Does he lose? Does he lose and contest the outcome? Who really knows at this point? So let’s drill down to the numbers: 1) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 23.6% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.5%. But what’s really interesting is that bullishness has been below the long-term 38.5% average for 51 straight weeks, and 84 of the last 86. 2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 31 this morning — that’s just 31 calls for every 100 puts. And the 10-day moving average is 80 — that’s the type of reading you see after a major volatility spike, not before one. 3) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio has been over 1 for the past 4 days. That indicates serious bearishness. 4) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 17. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral. This 17 reading indicates extreme fear. 5) VIX Spread – Bearish The 3-month VIX spread is at -0.3, which indicates traders are pricing in high near-term volatility. This is bearish. ********* So we have all 5 of these sentiment indicators pointing bearish, and they’re likely to get more bearish as traders hedge against possible post-election downside. Interestingly, I hear a lot of traders chattering about going long into the election on the assumption that downside is already priced in. We’ll certainly see!
Continue Reading -->Traders Don’t Get Much More Neutral Than This!
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side provides evidence for their views. So I like regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 7 sentiment measures I track, traders appear to be very, very neutral, even though the S&P 500 is still within a stone’s throw of the 2193 all-time high. 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out of the money 6 month SPX options. There is currently a 9.6 point skew in implied volatilities on the options. That’s the 86th percentile. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 86% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 25.5% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.5%. But what’s really interesting is that bullishness has been below the long-term 38.5% average for 49 straight weeks! 3) ISE Sentiment – Neutral The ISE Sentiment Index closed at 65 yesterday (81 puts for every 100 calls). And its 10 day moving average is just 101 — a level that indicates a neutral mood. 4) Wall Street Strategists – Neutral The average year-end target price for the S&P 500 is 2171, according to Bloomberg. That implies the market rises 1% into year-end. YAWN! 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.66 yesterday, which is just below the YTD average of 0.69. This points to neutral sentiment. 6) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 48. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral. So it’s basically right in the middle. 7) Investors Intelligence – Bullish Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers showed a slight decrease in bullishness to 46.1%. This is still a positive reading. ********* So we have 2 bearish indicators, 4 neutral indicators, and 1 bullish indicator. Blend them together and you have a moderately bearish crowd. I’m hearing a lot of bears say that everyone’s complacent… but I just don’t see it.
Continue Reading -->