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What’s On Tap for Traders: April 17-21
We're coming off an exciting week of trading with a cool CPI report, a more cautious Fed, and some upside earnings surprises from the banks.
Now let's look at what's ahead this coming week.
Click this image for a quick look at what's on the calendar:
(click to enlarge)
Tech Earnings Season Begins With Netflix and Tesla
Tech is outperforming big time in 2023, with the QQQ's up 18.6% vs. a 7.3% gain for SPY:
As of Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET
But the scales may tip with Netflix (NFLX) reporting earnings on Tuesday.
T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler notes “It's hard to be long or short Netflix into earnings given how far it's come. It's been a real leader over the last quarter, so it will give traders a good gauge on tech stock sentiment.”
Tesla (TSLA) follows on Wednesday.
Dan Darrow of T3 Live's Alpha Team VTF® tells us “Tesla's earnings will be must-see TV. April deliveries were disappointing relative to high expectations, and it will take a strong report and guidance to break the stock out of its 2-month trading range.”
FYI: Dan will join Greta Wall for a LinkedIn Q&A this Wednesday. Click here to sign up!
Given Elon Musk's chronic inability to stay out of the news, the world will be watching this show.
Semiconductor investors will want to keep an eye on ASML Holding (ASML) and Lam Research (LRCX) on Wednesday plus Taiwan Semi (TSM) on Thursday.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up a whopping 22.9% YTD to top our ETF leaderboard:
Click to enlarge
As of Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET
Micron (MU) rallied after a horrible quarter, so we'll see if the “it can't get any worse” semi rally extends into Q2.
Positions Disclosure: Scott Redler and Dan Darrow's positions as of 2023-04-14 at 1.26.32 PM
(Click to enlarge)
Even More Bank Earnings: Schwab in Focus
Bank earnings were on the strong side Friday, with JP Morgan (JPM) surging higher:
We'll get even more this coming week.
Schwab (SCHW) is a big one to watch on Monday.
We all know Schwab as a major broker and asset manager, but the company's bond market losses got it caught up in the regional bank meltdown, and the stock's been a mess:
Traders and investors are eager to see the impact on Schwab's financials.
The options market is pricing in a ~9% move in SCHW next week. Given the uncertainty, we could see such a move.
Other bank reports to watch:
- Monday: State Street (STT)
- Tuesday: Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS)
- Wednesday: Morgan Stanley (MS) and US Bancorp (USB)
- Thursday: American Express (AXP)
A Light US Economic Calendar
The US economic calendar lightens up a bit this week.
We'll have Building Permits on Tuesday followed by the Philly Fed and Existing Homes Sales numbers on Thursday.
Traders will be looking for more signs of a slowdown to get a better read on the Fed and monetary policy.
Overseas Is Busier
The global calendar has a lot more happening, especially on the inflation front.
We have CPI readings on Tuesday (Canada) and Wednesday (England, Eurozone, New Zealand).
Inflation seems to be cooling worldwide so we'll see if the trend continues.
Plus, China reports GDP and Industrial Production numbers late Monday.
And on Friday, we'll get England and Canada's Retail Sales numbers.
Sentiment Is Still… Confusing:
The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 26.1% of investors are bullish, well below-the long-term average of 37.5%.
That's down from 33.3% last week:
According to AAII, “bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 37.5% for the 71st time out of the past 73 weeks.”
Pretty bearish… right?
Yes.
But CNN's Fear & Greed Index shows that traders are greedy:
Permabulls always say everyone's bearish.
Permabears always say everyone's bullish.
The truth is somewhere in the middle…
Video of the Week
David Prince of Inner Circle talks to Jesse Martin, winner of two World Series of Poker Gold Bracelets and the 2019 $2 Million DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship.
Jesse is an IC member and shares how high-stakes poker trained him to succeed in the markets.
Momentum Mastery Is Coming…
JR Romero, Head of T3's Newsbeat Program, is teaching his all-new Momentum Mastery Course LIVE.
Want in? Contact Amber Buchetto for details.
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