All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler: Twitter Knocks It Out of the Park
Twitter (TWTR) crushed its earnings report this morning and surged big-time. Let’s wind the clock back and see how it played out. In Monday’s Redler All-Access Morning Note, I said this: “TWTR reports tomorrow morning. It’s hard to tell if this lower-level channel can resolve higher. I bought $36 calls in case it makes a big move. I’ll also see if it’s buyable after the report tomorrow, but it needs to hold $35.50-$36 on big volume to get some momentum back.” I also sent this chart on my private Twitter feed (for subscribers only):Good thing I had those calls… because it did make a big move! Twitter gapped up big today, as you can see:I sold my stock premarket, and then trimmed some calls as the stock rallied higher and higher. Here’s a chart showing the action in those April 26 $36 calls:Wow! Obviously, not all trades work out like this, but it feels great when they do! I typically look to hit singles and doubles when I’m trading, but sometimes, you make contact just right and things work out better than you think. Plus, as Redler All-Access members know, I’ve been in Facebook (FB) stock and calls too, and Twitter’s giving those a boost.Positions Disclosure: As of April 23, 2019 at 1:20 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long ACB, TIGR, BAC, ZYNE, NFLX, FB, BAC calls, AMRN calls, BIDU calls, FB calls, TWTR calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Pinterest, Zoom, Lyft, and What’s Next
On Thursday, I appeared on the TD Ameritrade Network with my friend Nicole Petallides to discuss the big Pinterest (PINS) and Zoom (ZM) IPO’s. (click the play button to watch)We’re going to talk about what happened on Thursday. But before we get into that, I want to lay out the main principle from my ‘Art of the First Day’ IPO strategy. When it comes to judging new issues, I don’t focus on valuations or fundamentals. Instead, I look at supply and demand. The market action — especially the initial pivot highs — will tell you which IPO’s are hot, and which ones aren’t. Lyft (LYFT) failed early because there were too many shares up for sale. It quickly lost its initial lows and fell apart:Now let’s look at a recent IPO that had more demand than supply. Jumia (JMIA) is a perfect example of too many buyers not chasing enough shares. This is what F.O.M.O. looks like:Zoom priced its deal at $36. And in 1999-style, it opened at $65 and put in a high at $66. This may be a case of too much, too fast. The low was $60.32, and it closed at $62.Here’s how I’m looking at ZM now: it already made a massive move and there’s a lot of room between here and the $36 IPO price. Right now, I want to stay flat. If it breaks $60, the lucky longs could get nervous and start cashing in. And shorts might step up too. If it can hold for a few days, I might buy on a close above $66. Now let’s talk about Pinterest. Pinterest priced at $19. The stock then opened at $23.75. It hit a high of $25.18, a low of $23.05, and it closed at $24.54.Now it needs to hold that $23.05 low. If that breaks, I’ll have to reconsider my long. If it can get above $25.18, perhaps there’s a multi-day run. Positions Disclosure: As of April 22, 2019 at 9:07 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long ACB, BAC, ZYNE, AAPL, PINS, TWTR calls, AMRN calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: What SPX, QQQ, & Apple Can Tell Us About the Market
This afternoon, Scott Redler appeared on TD Ameritrade’s ‘The Watch List,’ hosted by Nicole Petallides: In this video, Scott breaks down: -Why Scott is focused on technical analysis instead of opinions-The SPX’ wedge pattern, which signals indecision-The reason Scott likes the ‘tight pattern’ in the SPX-Why the bulls need to get above 2830-What it takes to get back to 2900+-The bears’ concerns like the inverted yield curve-What could happen following quarter-end ‘shenanigans’-The level that needs to hold-Why short-term traders need movement right now-Why the QQQ’s are important, and why they need to hold $176-What’s coming next for AAPL-Why Scott feels indecisive, and how his positions reflect that-What he does when the momentum trend breaks-The one thing Scott loves now (it’s not a stock!) Positions Disclosure: As of 3/28/2019 at 3:12 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long CGC, GOOGL
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: How NIO Became the Chosen One
In my 2019 Market Outlook Report, I named electric car maker Nio (NIO) — a.k.a. the Tesla (TSLA) of China — one of my top plays for 2019. When it comes to making trading calls, it’s easy to have 20/20 hindsight, so let’s go back to what I said word for word on page 39 of the report:Now, we almost did get that break of $6 right after I published the report. Nio touched a low of $6 on the dot on January 2 — kissing the danger zone down to the penny!But then it took off and finally broke over the 8/21/50 day in ate January, even getting to the $8 level from the 2019 Report:Let’s fast forward a little bit now. It closed strong last Friday, and on Saturday morning, I Tweeted that “it seems like $9.50++ happens in time.”Then on Monday when the stock gapped up on the 60 Minutes Show about China’s electric car industry:That morning, I told Redler All-Access readers “I trimmed some above $9.30” to lock in a nice gain. On Tuesday, there was just a tiny retracement toward Monday’s low before the stock shot up again to hit a new all-time high at $10.64 — passing that $9.50 mark with authority. Wow!Yesterday at 11:52, when NIO was around $10.54, I tweeted on our Private feed that I was smaller in it, but would stay with some to track it:Then this morning, I told Redler All-Access readers “I trimmed some NIO above $10 and I’ll buy dips selectively.” And here’s the chart I posted to the Redler All-Access Private Twitter, saying “now it needs some time to consolidate” though “I do not think yesterday’s high will be the 2019 high.” I’ll be tracking NIO closely to see when I can add to it for that all-time high push (if it happens, of course) You can follow along as I share my plans to handle NIO in Redler All-Access — plus dozens of other hot names. Many people think I only trade big cap tech… but check out my disclosure to see what I’ve been working with lately: Positions Disclosure: As of 2/27/2019 at 10:25 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long GERN, ZYNE, CRBP, CGC, BAC, BAC, NIO, GS, PBI calls, TLRY calls; wasshort SPY
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Apple Pie: When Low Expectations Get Surpassed
One of the big market stories earlier in the year was Apple’s (AAPL) big guide down on January 2. That led to a big mystery – whether expectations were low enough ahead of the January 29 earnings print. I took calls into the report because I thought the stock could clear $159 if it was just in-line. With calls, I had defined risk. I don’t take stock into earnings because of the open-ended risk.AAPL was deemed ‘good enough’ and the stock gapped up big on 1/30. The 1/30 low of $160.23 became the spot to trade against for new longs. That level needed to hold to keep the move intact.AAPL then held higher and formed a bull flag over $169, which was another opportunity to add:With the big up move, I’ve been trimming stock and I turned my calls into a spread. This is when we manage the trade with a Tier system. Looking forward, there’s a chance the stock can work to $183ish in time. But as always, we’ll take it day by day in Redler All-Access, as we’re doing with dozens of names each day. (sign-up info below)Positions Disclosure: as of 2/5/19 at 10:14 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long NIO, CRBP, FB, TWTR, NBEV, IQ, BAC, ETSY, TWTR calls, SPY puts, AAPL calls; is short SPY, AAPL calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Anatomy of the Great Post-Christmas Rally
The big rally off the 12/26/2018 low at 2346 wasn’t easy to predict. But, understanding some basic trading concepts could have helped you catch some of the move. And they help you understand why I held multiple longs through this period (with some short hedges here and there for protection). Or at least, traders could have stood aside instead of stubbornly shorting. So let’s break down the movie step-by-step. On 12/26, the SPX broke below the 12/24 low at 2351. It hit 2346 and reclaimed 2351 for a Red Dog Reversal. The index then closed at the highs of the day.But one day’s never enough. On 12/27, the SPX held the 50% retracement, which confirmed the Red Dog Reversal.Then on Friday 1/4, the index broke above the 8 day with authority when Powell got ‘flexible.’The next trading day was 1/7, a Monday. We had another up day, showing more commitment to the move.The index then held above the 8/21 day before breaking over a bull flag. That led to a nice rally to the 2670 high.So what’s next? On Friday, I told CNBC the following: “At this point, if you haven’t bought the market this year, it’s not the most prudent thing to do to chase it today. At the same time, being short is frustrating.” And today’s down day (1/22) is the first time in a while that a shallow dip hasn’t been bought. I’ve already taken down risk. Now, the key level to watch is Friday’s 2647 low. A close below that could mean a test of 2590-2625. Positions Disclosure: as of 1/22/2019 at 12:14 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long CRBP, TWTR, SPY puts, AMRN calls; was short SPY
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Reality Bites Apple, and What Could Happen Next
Yesterday after the close, Apple (APPL) gave a sales warning to give traders a big scare on the second day of trading in the New Year. The headlines are what you might expect:But how much of a surprise is this really? Dozens of analysts have been cutting numbers, suppliers have been warning of weak demand, and of course, the stock’s way off the $233.47 October high. Now, I’ve been called an Apple (AAPL) permabull for years, but this is what I said in my 2019 Market Outlook Report:This was the first time in years I didn’t list Apple as a buy right off the bat. As I wrote, “there’s still serious news risk with Apple, especially given that the trade war with China is unresolved.” And the trade war did just take a major toll on Apple earnings, and the stock is deep in the hole. As I write this, Apple is around $144, so it’s in a much more interesting spot, and it’s time for some fresh analysis. It’s below the $146.59 December low. To relieve pressure — and get ‘the elevator’ going back up, it has to reclaim that level. If it stays below $146.59, next support is in the $140.40 area. Here’s my updated chart for this morning:Now we’ll see if it can make a low in the first 5-15-30-60 minutes to try to fill some of the gap. Or, does it grind down all day? Pay close attention to which scenario plays out. Since we’re on the topic of tech, let’s check out a QQQ chart too.I’m watching $150-$150.88 today. If that holds, it shows that traders aren’t extrapolating Apple to the rest of tech. If it fails… then watch out! For more of my analysis for 2019 and my top picks (including my short ideas for this year), click right here to check out the 2019 Market Outlook Report.Positions Disclosure: As of January 3, 2019 at 9:32 a.m.. ET, Scott J. Redler is long GE, FB, SPY, TWTR, IWM, BAC
Continue Reading -->BONUS! Today’s Redler All-Access Newsletter & Morning Call Video (plus 90% discount…)
As a bonus for T3 Live subscribers, we are publishing Scott Redler’s Morning Note newsletter and Morning Note Video so you can see his attack plan for today. After you read the note, check out our Cyber Monday sale – you can save 90% on your first month of Redler All Access, which includes the Morning Note newsletter, Morning Call Video, Daily Recap video, and Private Twitter feed. Regular price is $129, but with this deal, your first month is just $12.90. (for first-time subscribers only – past subscribers will be charged full price) Click here for more info ****** Holiday Surprise – November 26, 2018 Today’s Morning Call Video: We have mostly green arrows around the world as we enter the last real important week of 2018. Europe is broadly higher as Italy makes a few concessions and the EU gives the Brexit an okay. The DAX is +1.1% with the CAC +1.2% and FTSE +1.0%. Asia has green arrows. The Hang Seng is up 1.7%, reclaiming the 50 day. SPX futures are up 30 on optimism that Powell will have a more dovish tone Wednesday, and that the G-20 will bring some type of trade ceasefire. It was hard to see this type of big up open coming since the market was down last even though it usually has an upside bias around Thanksgiving. But, we are getting used to harder setups, so we’ll deal with it. last week the market was down every day in what usually has an upside bias. We are getting used to harder setups, so we’ll deal with it. Today, we’ll see how much of today’s gap holds, and then judge the action moving forward. Do we get a gap and go and close on the highs today? Or do the highs happen in the first 30-60 minutes. We’ll be ready for whatever happens. Last week, 2630 held, which is above the 2603 October low. Will today be potent and ignite a double bottom type? Or will things look lethargic and get sold? Resistance is the 2670 area, and then 2705ish. SPY put in a low Friday at $263.07. We’ll see how much of today’s opening gap holds. Pivot resistance is in the $267 area, then $269.40. Tech was a headwind for the past few weeks but showed a few glimmers last week. The QQQ’s put in a low at $159.09 Friday. See if it holds $160.84 and builds. And let’s see if AAPL gets rejected at the $175.50-$176 resistance area, or if it reclaims that with authority. Small caps got very close to major support and broke the October lows. IWM’s low from Friday was $146.81. Resistance is in the $150.50-$151. Banks aren’t special either. GS made new October lows way before the others with yields coming in a bit. It made a low of $188.94 Friday. See if it holds up or goes red. Pivot resistance is $191.87. JPM is usually the strongest name but no one is in a rush to buy strength. It was sold last week. Friday’s low was in the $106 area. Now see how it handles $107.40 pivot resistance. Oil got hit hard from $75 to $55 and then broke lower again. It’s up a little this morning but not by much. USO broke $11.62 and then hit a low Friday at $10.69. It’s very oversold but very broken. XLE broke the October lows and hit $63.44 Friday. Pivot resistance is $64.57, then $65.32. The Go To List has been good for two-way action, but they have trended lower with most names below the 8/21/50/100/200 day. Some are worse than others. But we do get trades based on the setup and open. Today’s big gap open isn’t the best scenario for us. A big down open could have been easier. Now we need to see if if the strength fades or if we rally into bigger resistance. They’ve come a long way down, so shorting too early could hurt. But they are also so broken that it’s hard to buy strength. We’ll be patient. AAPL was the weakest last week. It broke below $185.93 and hit a low of $172.10 Friday. Now see if it reclaims or gets rejected at the $175.50-$176 area. If it reclaims it with force, it can see the $180-$181.47 gap area this week. A down open would have been easier. AMZN held up a little better than some other F.A.N.G.-type names. However, it closed on the lows Friday. Now see if it gets rejected around the $1546-$1553 resistance area. Or does it get reclaimed for more upside towards $1600? NFLX isn’t special. Barron’s says it’s not worth buying yet. But it can bounce towards $271-$275 before it sees resistance. NVDA gave us a nice tradable setup last Tuesday as it went green first. It has pivot resistance at $155, then the real zone is $161-$163. FB has been hit the hardest the off highs. It gave us a trade last Tuesday. Barron’s thinks it has a good-risk reward down here. It has pivot resistance at $134.50. Then $137 is bigger resistance. TWTR tried to be somewhat constructive post-earnings, but tech was too weak. It needs time and there’s no real pattern. The $32 area needs to be reclaimed with some force as a step in the right direction. GOOGL: Barron’s said the risk-reward down here is good. But it needs a lot of work to get better. Pivot resistance is $1143. See if it stays above that. If so, bigger resistance is near $1165. SQ was one of the first names to put its low last Tuesday. It held above it Friday. It will test the 200 day before a few other names. See if it reclaims it or gets rejected there near $66. TSLA tried to act special until it did a Red Dog Reversal around the $357 pivot on 11/19. Then it hit a low of $325.55 Friday. It’s just a trade like everything else now. Pivot resistance
Continue Reading -->Chef Scott Redler Shares His Secret Turkey Recipe
Family + friends + food + football + fitness (say that 10 times quick!) makes Thanksgiving one of my favorite holidays. And believe it or not, I’m pretty handy in the kitchen. I cook like I trade, and I trade like I cook. I keep things simple, and I go with what works. I’ve been using this turkey recipe since my parents moved to Florida 14 years ago, and it’s what I’ll be serving my family on Thursday afternoon. Ingredients List Turkey 3-4 long celery sticks 2 sticks of butter 2 oranges 3-4 lemons 2 sticks of butter 4 whole onions 3 big hunks of garlic Salt Pepper Paprika Ms. Dash seasoning 1 can of pineapples 1 jar of orange or apricot jam The quantity of ingredients depends on the size of your turkey. Just scale up or down as you see fit. We usually get a frozen 20-pounder. And oh yeah — make sure you have a quality knife! It will make your life a lot easier. I’ll take the bird out of the freezer Monday morning so it will be defrosted by Wednesday evening, when I do my prep work. You know me. Whether I’m trading, running, or cooking, I never show up for battle unprepared. If you start getting things ready before Thanksgiving, you’ll get better results with less stress on Thanksgiving… just like in trading! I’ll dice up 4 whole onions and 3 big hunks of garlic, and toss them in a large bowl. I then add salt, pepper, paprika, some Mrs. Dash seasoning, and mix it all up. Then, I’ll stuff it into the turkey. I’ll also put half a can of pineapples in there, and jam a stick of butter right in the middle of all. Then, I pour some orange juice and lemon juice over the turkey skin — just enough to get it wet. In a separate bowl, I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika for the skin. I spread it all over, making sure to get in all the nooks and crevices. Don’t be cheap! Then, I’ll wrap the turkey in a big bag and leave it in the refrigerator overnight. On Thanksgiving morning, I’ll cut a few long celery sticks in half and put them on the bottom of the pan. Then, I take the turkey out of the bag and place it on the pan. There will be a lot of juice in the bag. Transfer it to the bottom of the pan, and be careful not to spill any. It’s a real pain to clean up! Then I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika, and sprinkle it on top of the turkey. Now it’s time to stick the bird in the oven. After an hour, start basting it every 15-20 minutes. Take juices from the cavity and squeeze it on top of the turkey. Also, rotate the pan every hour or so. It should take about 4 hours to cook. Just follow what your meat thermometer says. When there is about 20 minutes to go, pour a jar of orange or apricot jam in a bowl, and add a softened stick of butter to it. Mix it together, and brush the turkey with it. Stick the turkey back in, but keep a close eye on it. We want a nice crispy skin, but we don’t want to burn it. Once the turkey’s done, take it out and let it sit for an hour before you carve it. By the way, if you’re not experienced in the art of carving up a turkey, this video will help you get it right and impress your family: Delay your carving as long as you can — turkey tastes best just when it’s cut! If you give this recipe a shot, take a picture, post it on Twitter, and tag me (@reddogT3) so I can see it! Have a great week, and an even better Thanksgiving!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Multiple Scenario Analysis Ahead of the Mid-Terms
We’re ahead of the biggest political event since the 2018 Presidential election. It seems like a Democrat House and Republican Senate would be equities friendly. And as long as we hold the SPX 2700 area, I’ll be positioned for it to clear 2756 for a move back towards 2816-2840. But if that rally happens, don’t rush to buy into bull hype too quickly. Seasonality and buybacks may be on the bulls’ side, but there’s a bigger pattern to worry about. (more on this below) If the Democrats take the House and Senate, volatility probably spikes. A close of below 2700 would probably mean a retest of 2603. As you can see on the micro chart below, an inverse head & shoulders may be setting up. The election results may dictate if the pattern resolves up, or if the right shoulder gets broken for that 2603 retest.Now let’s look at a more intermediate-term chart. If 2603 gets lost, traders will start worrying about a trip to 2560 – 2580, and a rougher road to end 2018 and start 2019. Now let’s take a look at the big macro chart. This is why I said we can’t too easily buy into a giant year-end rally. A rally from here could complete the right shoulder into 2800-2840, making 2600ish the neckline. If this pattern triggers to the downside and the neckline breaks, the measured move points to 2300 — which could be a 2019 storyPositions Disclosure: As of November 6, 2018 at 10:33 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long FB, AAPL, SPY, IWM
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