All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler: Using Multiple Scenarios to Find a Path Forward
We came in facing some ugly headlines this morning:At times like this, I try to avoid marrying an opinion. I let the price action guide me, because price is how we get paid. I came in today focused on SPX 2710 (the October low prior to today), telling CNBC’s Patty Domm “it could be bullish if it breaks below and then reclaims it and has a strong finish. Early this morning, I showed in a chart how holding above 2710 could mean the market puts in a 2X/W bottom:And I laid out three equivalent scenarios in SPY to Redler All-Access readers before the open: A) $270.36 is the 10/11 low. We hold above it and try and rally.B) We get and stay below $270.36 to probe to the downside with another leg lower. $268.49 is below, then $265.15.C) We get below $270.36 and then reclaim it for a Red Dog Reversal-type bounce attempt. Then, I’m free to react to the scenario that plays out, instead of locking myself into an opinion beforehand. Now let’s go to the chart to see what actually happened:As you can see on the chart, the SPX plunged at the open and made a new October low of 2691.43. But then it rebounded back above 2710 to 2746. (as of the afternoon)SPY broke below $270.36 and reclaimed it, and it’s now over $274. Let this be a lesson: don’t get locked into an opinion to the point where you can’t react to what’s happening. Keep multiple possible scenarios on your radar so you can grab opportunities as they come. Positions Disclosure: As of October 23, 2018 at 2:46 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long SPY, CRBP, TWTR calls, FB calls, CAT calls, GWPH Calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Amazon’s Second Trip to $2000+
On August 30, we connected the dots on AMZN’s first trip to $2,000+. The stock made a trip down to $1,865 on Monday before a second trip above $2,000 today. Let’s look at it chart by chart. On Monday, AMZN reclaimed the 50 day fast and put in a Red Dog Reversal signal. I got long around $1904ish. On Tuesday morning, I noted that it needed a high-volume close above $1957.It then cleared $1957, breaking above the wedge, to hit $1975. Since it was up on day #3 by this time, I trimmed so I can add back if it wanted to rest. I also noted next resistance is $1993-$2008.And finally, AMZN put in two more up days to hit $2010+ — right above my resistance range.This is a good example of why I take an “if-then” approach to trading. I don’t just blindly buy based on patterns — I want confirmation of a move based on my levels before I commit.Positions Disclosure: As of September 28, 2018 at 12:33 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long CDTI, CRBP, NIO, TWTR, AAPL, BA, XLE, NFLX, IBM calls, NFLX calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Tracking Big Tech Red Dog Reversals
Let’s take a fresh look at the action in tech. Yesterday, the QQQ’s got hit early but held the 50 day with a low at $181.30. It rallied and went green to outperform yesterday, which was good to see. As long as the 50 day holds, it is hard to get too bearish here. Let’s drill down to some individual names, starting with Nvidia (NVDA). Yesterday, there was a nice Red Dog Reversal buy signal around the $262.11 pivot. It also reclaimed the 50 day to close on the highs of the day. I’d probably look to trim it into the $270 area if I was long, but it has a little more room to $273.We saw a similar move in Amazon (AMZN). It sliced the 50 day fast at $1894 before reclaiming it. I’m looking to trim some this morning and hold some because there is a chance it gets better and resolves the range higher. But it really needs a high volume close above $1957 for that.Now let’s turn to Apple (AAPL). It started on the weaker side yesterday but reclaimed $217.29 pretty fast. I bought some lower yesterday. Now we’ll see if we can actually add higher. It would be good for tech if it can get above $222.50 and hold above it.Netflix (NFLX) as kind of an odd-looking inverse head & shoulders pattern. It reclaimed the 8/21 day yesterday to get me long. Now it would be healthy to clear $377 for upside. But for that to happen, it needs to get and stay above $373.64 first.Positions Disclosure: As of September 25, 2018 at 10:54 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long FEYE, CGC, FB, BAC, NFLX, XLE, AMZN, IBM calls, GWPH calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: 10 Trading Rules I’ll Teach My Son
The son becomes the father, and the father the son. -Jor-El, father of Superman Last year, I had back surgery to correct a sequestered spinal disc. That pretty much meant the end of my competitive racing career. But as one Redler falls… another rises. I’m winding down. And my son Chace is winding up. On Monday, he ran the 38th annual President’s Cup 5K Run in Millburn, NJ in 20:15.28. Here’s a picture of us after the finish. I ran the race alongside him… until he passed me by. Chace broke the record for 8-year olds for this particular race. And he may have posted one of the top-3 5K finishes EVER by an 8-year old. (official records are a little spotty) I think running and competing can take him far in life. And I’m not just talking about college scholarships. He’s learning the value of discipline and hard work early. But maybe one day he’ll leave running behind. Maybe he’ll follow his old man into another competitive, testosterone-filled career… trading. If he made that choice, I’d drag him into the garage, lock the door, and not let him out until he understands these 10 trading rules: 10) Trading Is a Business People think trading is like hitting the craps table at Ceasars Palace. But it’s a business just like any other. You have to balance your books every month, make it through slowdowns, and most of all, not put yourself at risk of bankruptcy. The average guy on the street thinks trading is really exciting. You lose $10 million one day, and make $20 million the next. NOTHING could be further from the truth. Every successful trader knows that… 9) Trading Should Be Boring Thrill-seekers always fail. Always. Here’s a pretty common scenario: A trader starts his career, and BAM! He has a huge day. Let’s call it $50K. I gotta tell you, $50K all at once can ruin a trader’s life. They start thinking that big money comes easily. They start thinking about making $100K a day… or $200K a day. So they keep taking more and more risk… until they run into a day like the August 24, 2015 flash crash. 5 minutes after the open, the margin clerk’s demanding more cash. The trader doesn’t have the money to put up, so their positions get closed out, right at the bottom. So they’re put out of business just before the rebound. I’ve seen it happen again and again. So if you’re just getting started, I recommend that you… 8) Focus on Execution First, Money Second If you get good at anything, the money’s going to come eventually. So focus on developing your skills, and properly executing the strategies you learn. That’s what’s going to keep you in the game for the long run. Fast money leaves just as fast at arrived. Your #1 goal should be to develop a set of trading strategies that can give you consistent profits, no matter what’s happening in the market. Once your brain gets big, your wallet follows. But let’s not forget about your heart, because… 7) Your Temper Can Kill You Self-control is more important than brainpower. You can have all the intelligence in the world, but if you can’t stay calm when you’re losing money, you’re toast. You need the self-awareness to know when you’re at risk of letting emotions dictate your decision-making process. I just read an article in the Wall Street Journal about a banker that used basketball to judge job candidates: Some employers confessed to weeding out applicants in the gym. John Osbon said when he was a Wall Street managing director he played basketball with job candidates. He would step on their feet or yank their shirt in games, he said, to see how they reacted. If they kept their cool, they passed the test. “They were all fair fouls, and I didn’t hurt anyone,” Mr. Osbon said. “You have to take someone down to size.” Sounds like a pretty effective way to judge a trader’s ability to take pressure! How easily do you keep your cool? And what can you do to work on being even-tempered? But we all know we can’t keep our emotions perfectly on check. So I recommend that you… 6) Use Reverse Psychology on Yourself We’re only human, and we can never perfectly manage our emotions. I’ve been doing this for 18 years, and I still get too excited sometimes. And when I feel that coming on, I know my ego is getting the best of me. So I force myself to trade more cautiously, because I’ve put myself in the danger zone. And when I start every trading day, I try to… 5) Be Naturally Neutral I don’t expect too much at the start of a trading day. And I don’t expect too little. Every day is different, and if I’m in a neutral mood, I’m ready for whatever opportunities present themselves. If you start your day dreaming of piles of cash, or worrying that you’ll go up in smoke, you’re doomed. Now, once you’re out there, not every trade will go your way. You’re going to lose money. But that’s okay, because… 4) Great Traders Are Losers Every trader out there loses money. I lose money all the time. Some of the richest traders I’ve met lose money every single day. But the reason I’m still in the game after 18 years is that I don’t lose big. Say I’m long AAPL from $150, and I get stopped out at $148. I’m not gonna celebrate, but I’m not gonna cry either. You know why? Because small losses won’t knock me out of the game. Now if I rode AAPL down to $130, that’s another story. If you dig a deep enough hole, you may need 10 winners to make up for 1 loser! Understanding this can help you… 3) Start Thinking Like a Pro Like I said, brainpower isn’t everything. You can have a 180 IQ, but you’ve got to adopt the mindset of a pro. Pros don’t think about Ferraris
Continue Reading -->AMZN: Connecting the Dots on the Road to $2,000+
Amazon (AMZN) has been a big winner for Redler All-Access in the past couple of weeks as it woke up around the $1875ish area to finally break $2,000 today. If you read my 2018 Market Outlook Report back in December or January, maybe you saw my Amazon $2,000 call:I closed out the last of my recent swing long this morning, but let’s go back and see how we connected the dots in Redler All-Access. Monday 8/27 Chart AMZN wasn’t leading the market last week, but it looked ready to get back in the game. We had a potential wedge-type pattern with one of the best companies on the planet. I was long and looking to add if it could get above $1,919, then $1,925. I thought that if it could close above $1,925, then $1,950-$2,000+ would be next. Tuesday 8/28 Chart On Tuesday, AMZN was up $8-9 in the morning so I trimmed some. However, I wanted to stay with some because $1,950-$2,000 was possible for this week.Wednesday 8/29 Chart On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley put a $2,500 target on AMZN, which had the stock gapping up nicely above the descending trendline. I said that $2,000 could be a magnet in the sessions ahead, and AMZN managed to reach $1,998.69 on Wednesday.Thursday 8/30 Chart I sold the last of my AMZN long after the open today. After the big move from the $1,900 area, it felt more like a scalp than swing long. It hit $2,025+. Hopefully it sets up again for move to the $2058 area to celebrate the $1 trillion market cap milestone.
Continue Reading -->Can IBB Power Even Higher From Here?
IBB has been in close focus for Redler All-Access this week. On Monday, I told readers this: The bios held in well and perked up as IBB held $115 and cleared $117. Perhaps this week it gives a better move above $118.40 towards the $120 highs. We’ll look for clues. I ended up getting long during the day as it cleared the $118.30 area. If that level holds, I’ll try and stay in. In time, it seems like it should clear $119.78, then $120.06 for more upside. So keep those levels on your radar.AMD (AMD) has been another big name for us. It’s been a great vehicle in 2018 and hit short and longer-term objectives fast. It’s been very extended and I got short earlier this morning. I’ll proceed carefully with it.If we’re talking AMD, we should cover NVDA too. There was a big Red Dog Reversal buy signal last Monday around the $243.73 pivot. It also had power to clear $263 and hit $278.90 yesterday. I would not chase it here. Maybe it gives a cute short opportunity but I’ll proceed carefully in any case.
Continue Reading -->When Red Dog Reversals Signal an Igniting Market
Last week I was at the beach, trying to manage my long trades while catching some waves with the family. Things were great on both fronts — I had a great time on my trip, and the market gave us a lot of good trades. The action showed how you didn’t need to be watching the market 24/7 to catch the big waves. At the very least, two big Red Dog Reversals on Monday should have had you looking for long opportunities. Let’s start with the first: On Friday 8/17 Nvidia (NVDA) gapped down big after hit after earnings…. and then Monday 8/20, it roared back to life with a Red Dog Reversal around the $248.73 pivot. It reclaimed all moving averages, filled the earnings, gap, and it’s sitting at record highs this morning.Netflix (NFLX) also started last week with a big Red Dog Reversal signal. It’s gapping up over $374 this morning as it climbs further out of the earnings penalty box to reclaim the 8 day.AAPL has been good to us with a big move from $197 to $219.18 in a month. Last week, it consolidated while the SPX made new highs. I re-entered vs. the $214.50 area. I would like to see it get and say above $217.20 for a move back to the highs and perhaps $220+.TWTR has not been a barnburner, but it hit a high of $34.74. We’ll see if it can hold $33.50 this week to keep working towards the $37 gap area. But I’m not trying to add on strength – I’m looking to possible trim some and buy some back on a dip.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Connecting the Dots on AAPL & BABA
We’ve been keeping a close on AAPL and BABA in Redler All-Access, so let’s break each of them down. They’re different stories — AAPL’s been a shooting star since earnings while BABA only caught a bid today. Here’s how we’ve been tracking them. This is the ‘Before Chart’ I posted yesterday morning. There was word that Turkey would boycott US electronics, and that China might do the same, but as you know, I like charts more than news. So what was the chart telling me? That AAPL needed to hold the $207 area to stay special. Yesterday, Apple was green in a sea of red, and I got long for a new entry. I then sold some this morning, and I want to see if it closes above $210.95. The measured move still points to $217ish.Now let’s turn to BABA’s ‘Before” chart. It was under pressure since the island top with most strength getting sold. It was below the 8/21 day and we needed to see how it handled big support at the $164-$166 area. BABA held the $164-$166 area and bounced. Now it has room to the $174 area, but I would take trades until it proves it has some real power.ddddd
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Is This Late January All Over Again?
During the past few sessions, I’ve been updating my daily SPX chart to show a comparison with the late January Island Top, which was right before the 2/2 plunge.What does the present day have in common with late January? Let’s see. Both times, we went below the 8 day first. Both times, the gap went unfilled, which was a sign of weakness. The market usually moves in the direction of the unfilled gap — to the downside in this case. That means you have sellers in control. My process puts me in Tactical Mode when the 8/21 break since those are my momentum moving averages. Remember, to see the 50/100/200 day, the 8/21 day have to break first. Tactical Mode means I start taking profits and cleaning up ‘loose longs.’ This morning, I closed out/was stopped out of my longs in names like AMZN, AMD, GOOGL, and FB. That’s not what I wanted for today, but taking paper cuts is part of the game. It’s not fun, but it’s better than gushers, which is why I respect my stos. But remember, panic doesn’t pay. So let’s get our levels mapped out. For a real correction, we need to stay below all moving averages. For now, if we stay below SPX 2819, there could be a trip to support around 2796. The 50 day is underneath at 2789. I’m not calling for a correction or crash — I’m just keeping my options open.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Tech Stock Breakdown: Citron Boosts Twitter
Tech’s always a big focus for me, so let’s go over some of my favorite charts sent to Redler All-Access subscribers this morning. Twitter (TWTR) has not been special, but this morning, I thought that trying it long vs. the $31.50 area could work. I went long some after the open, and then it got a boost from Citron Research, which issued this note:Here’s the initial chart I sent out:And here’s the followup chart I sent to RAA subscribers later this morning.I added around $32.85, and now I’ll try and trade around a swing long.Now let’s look at Google (GOOGL). It’s been a little sloppy and I got stopped out on Friday. I’ll see if I want to buy it again if it holds $1247 and acts well today. $1261ish is Friday’s high to watch.Apple (AAPL) still looks special and it was one of the first names to go green Friday. I nibbled a little this morning, because when the market wants to hold, AAPL seems to get ‘Go To’ status. It says that way as long as it holds $206.67. A strong move and close above $209.78 would be impressive.Alibaba (BABA) has been under pressure since the island top, and a lot of strength was sold around $200. It hit a low of $174.45 Friday. On Friday, it showed relative strength for the first time in a while and held the gains all day. I nibbled on some calls for earnings. Today, we’ll see if it says green to keep traders interested.And it’s not pure tech, but let’s look at Biotech (IBB) since it has so much attention. IBB is hanging on by a thread, and it really needs to hold $116ish. A hard close below that will get the active bulls out. If that happens, it will need more time to rebuild.
Continue Reading -->