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Sentiment Report: The Fear Factor
It took a while, but the bulls were finally brought down to earth after 13 months of straight-up action. And sentiment was remarkably positive from December 2017 until last Friday when volatility exploded, leading to the VIX spiking over 50 on Tuesday morning. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels. But it actually took 2 whole months for that to happen during this once-in-a-life-time stretch of happiness! Now, let’s take a look at how the mood has changed using our handy dandy sentiment indicators. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish As of Friday morning, the VIX was hovering right around 30. It was actually under 10 in early January, so this is a major change. And the 50.30 spike high matched the 53.29 high set in the August 2015 mini-crash. The 3-month VIX spread is completely blown out at around -10. This means traders are very bearish and expect a lot of volatility. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 8, down from 59 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 8 means traders are very fearful (or bearish). This is a shocking change. Fear & Greed was at 76 just a month ago. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey shows that 37% of those surveyed are bullish. This is down from 44.7 last week. The long-term average is 38.4%, so this is basically neutral. Interestingly, this indicator was mostly neutral in 2017, and only turned bullish in January 2018 — implying that individual investors were a bit late to the party. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The long-term average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.654. And from December 7, 2016 to February 1, there wasn’t a single day above that long-term average, which means there was an above-average level of call buying. The trend changed on Friday, February 2. Since then, the CBOE equity put-call has averaged 0.736, which means a sudden increase in demand for put options. A single-day reading around 1 would indicate extreme fear, and we’re not even close to that yet. In the past 5 days of volatility, the highest reading was 0.77. So options traders are bearish, but only moderately so. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 0 bullish (down from 4 last week) 1 neutral (up from 0 last week) 3 bearish (up from 0 last week) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. I threw in that sentence “Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky” for a very good reason. These indicators are for color. They are only one part of the investment process, not signals on their own. Turns out that sentiment indicators were not very helpful in calling the 2018 top, because they’ve been very bullish since early December. So unfortunately, they may not be helpful in calling the bottom either!
Continue Reading -->Volatility Is Picking Up but Nobody Cares
Sentiment has been remarkably bullish since December 2017. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but as we’ve learned in this once-in-a-life-time stretch of happiness, there’s no guarantee. And indeed, even though volatility reared its head this week, the bulls stayed pretty dang happy. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if traders are still feeling happy. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Three weeks ago, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX hit a 6-month high of 15.42 this week, but it came down to around 13. Now, on the surface, that may imply that traders are slightly more cautious. However, the curve of the VIX futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatility for the next few months. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 59, down from 72 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 59 means traders are moderately greedy (or bullish). So no real change here. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.8% of survey respondents are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.3%. It’s slightly down from last week’s 45.5% level, but still bullish overall. We did see an uptick in investors calling themselves bearish, but it’s nothing dramatic. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.59. This is slightly below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.558, which is extremely low on a historical basis. So it’s the same old story: traders are buying up call options like they’re hotcakes, and they’re not buying many puts. Of course, that’s worked out beautifully for bulls because the market hit a string of new all-time highs in January! Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for the last 3 weeks: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! Now, no one knows how this is going to end, or when. It’s very fashionable to point out that eventually, the market’s going to blow up in the bulls’ faces… but people have been saying that for years. So let’s take things one step at a time. The bears will eventually have their day in the sun, but we just don’t know when. One thing’s for sure though: volatility is starting to pick up, so stay on guard. The bears have been fooled time and time again, but sooner or later, they are going to bite.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: 100% Happy Traders
Sentiment has been incredibly bullish since early December. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but timing trades off sentiment indicators is largely a fool’s game – something made quite clear with the market’s nonstop string of record highs. Stocks just won’t break down, and the dip buyers get rewarded every time. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if traders are still feeling happy. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Three weeks ago, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX has since bounced around the 11-12 level. Now, on the surface, that may imply that traders are slightly more cautious. However, the curve of the VIX futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatiltiy for the next few months. But that’s no surprise since we haven’t had a 3% pullback in about a decade! (okay, it’s not a decade, but it has been more than a year) So it’s no surprise that traders expect more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 78, up from 72 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 78 means traders are greedy (or bullish). 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get nutty. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.5% of survey respondents are bullish, down from last week’s 54.1% reading. However, this number has ben elevated since December 14, indicating that individual investors have been getting more bullish over the past couple of months. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.56. This is well below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.526, which is extraordinarily low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is just 0.537. So it’s the same old story I’ve been telling for the past month and a half: traders are buying up call options like they’re hotcakes, and they’re not buying many puts. Of course, that’s been a great strategy because stocks have been so strong. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for the last 3 weeks: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! I can’t remember traders ever being so positive for so long without a single hiccup. When it ends, no one knows.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: 100% Happy Traders
Sentiment has been incredibly bullish since early December 2017. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but there’s no guarantee. And indeed, the bulls have been getting rewarded at every turn since the market just won’t break down. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if traders are still feeling happy. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Two weeks ago, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX has ticked up around 12. Now, on the surface, that may imply that traders are slightly more cautious. However, the curve of the VIX futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatiltiy for the next few months. But that’s no surprise since we haven’t had a 3% pullback in about a decade! (okay, it’s not a decade, but it has been more than a year) So it’s no surprise that traders expect more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 72, down slightly from 77 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 72 means traders are moderately greedy (or bullish). So no real change here. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The American Association of Individual Investors just released their latest weekly sentiment survey. 54.1% of survey respondents were bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.3%, and a bounce from last week’s 48.7% reading. Two weeks ago, we had a momental reading of 59.8%, which was the highest level since December 2010. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.56. This is well below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.549, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is just 0.51. So it’s the same old story: traders are buying up call options like they’re hotcakes, and they’re not buying many puts. Of course, that’s worked out beautifully for bulls because the market just won’t break down! Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week) 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for the last 2 weeks: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! Again, I can’t remember seeing sentiment this positive for this long. And I have to imagine the bears are going nuts, just getting grinded out a penny at a time. Remember, picking a top based on sentiment is extremely tricky business… so tread carefully.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Pure Joy
Sentiment has been incredibly bullish since December 2017. It’s common for the market to top out when sentiment gets to extreme levels, but there’s never a guarantee. And indeed, the bulls have been rewarded with what feels like a nonstop string of record highs. So let’s dig into our sentiment indicators to see if the mood’s changed at all this week. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Last week, the VIX made several intraday lows around 9, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The VIX has ticked up just a bit and is hovering around 10. The 3 month spread is at 2.9, which indicates that traders are fairly bullish. But what’s really interesting is that the curve of the futures term structure is very, very flat. This again means that traders expect near-zero volatiltiy. But that’s no shocker since we’re coming off a year without a single 3% pullback. No surprise that traders expect more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 77, up slightly from 74 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 77 means traders are moderately greedy (or bullish). Last week, I was surprised Fear & Greed wasn’t higher, but it’s rebounding quickly.I’m very surprised at this — I thought it would be higher. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get nutty. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 48.7% of survey respondents are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.3%.That was the highest level since November 13, 2014. However, it’s down from last week’s rather extreme 59.8% reading. That was the highest level since December 23, 2010! So it looks like Wednesday’s little intraday dip knocked a bit of froth out of the market. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.5. This is way, way below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.563, which is also extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.583. So the trend of traders buying tons and tons of call options relative to puts. Of course, that’s worked out great for buyers because the market just won’t break down. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (flat from last week 0 neutral 0 bearish On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. And I’ll repeat what I said in last week’s sentiment report: Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! I can’t remember seeing sentiment this positive for this long. Of course, timing trades and determining your portfolio strategy off sentiment indicators is largely a fool’s game, so use this data as only one part of your process.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: The Lunatic Fringe
Sentiment was very bullish in December 2017. But the bullishness us turning into straight-up lunacy. Don’t believe me? Just check out the numbers! (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX has been making intraday lows around 9 for the past 3 days, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The 3 month spread is at 3.6, which indicates traders are fairly bullish. But what’s really interesting is that the curve of the futures term structure is is very flat. It’s almost shocking how little volatility is being priced in for the next few months. We’re coming off a year without a single 3% pullback, so I guess traders see more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 74, up from 62 last week., which is down just a bit from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 74 means traders are moderately bullish. Last week, I was surprised Fear & Greed wasn’t higher, but it’s rebounding quickly.I’m very surprised at this — I thought it would be higher. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get nutty. Last week, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 52.6% of individual investors were bullish. That was the highest level since November 13, 2014. This week, it hit 59.8%. We haven’t seen individual investors this bullish since December 23, 2010! Let’s keep in mind that the AAII sentiment number was depressed for most of 2017, averaging just 35.1%, which was under the 38.5% long-term average. For years, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.5. This is way, way below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.556, also is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.503. We haven’t seen a 3-day moving average this low since December 9, 2016. Traders are buying tons and tons of call options. Of course, that’s worked out great because the market just won’t break down. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (up from 3 last week 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! I can’t remember seeing sentiment this universally bullish. It feels like it’s been a decade since we’ve had a pullback, and it feels like no one expects one. That doesn’t mean the market HAS to fall… but let’s stay on guard, okay?
Continue Reading -->T3’s Top 10: Our Most Popular Articles of 2017
What’s popular with the thousands of traders that make up the T3 Live community? You’re about to find out with our top 10 articles for the year 2017, ranked by visits to our website. You can get a look at a top trader’s account statements showing $78K+ in profits from 4 weeks of trading, watch Scott Redler’s best-ever webinar, and get the backstories on 7 of our most popular traders. We’ll start with number 10 and work our way down to number 1: 10) 10 Reasons to Read Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report Get a sneak preview of Scott’s big report! 9) 17 Killer Tips Every Momentum Trader Should Know Learn why the most successful momentum traders are highly disciplined. They don’t gamble. 8) 6 Tips for Picking the Right Stocks for Day Trading You can spend years learning about moving averages, gaps, trendlines, and indicators. But if you’re day trading the wrong stocks, you’re setting yourself up for failure. 7) 7 Interviews with 7 Top Traders Get the backstories on 7 of our top trading professionals, and learn what makes them tick. 6) 9 Ways to Destroy Your Account with Options Want to fail at options trading? This article will tell you how! 5) $78,059.89 in 4 Weeks of Trading Earnings Sami Abusaad is no one hit wonder. Watch this video and you’ll see Sami’s actual account statements that show $78,059.89 in net profits since October 16. 4) Scott Redler: 10 Trading Rules I’ll Teach My Son Let Scott break down 10 trading rules every new trader needs to understand. 3) Jeff Cooper: Is Gold About to Explode? Find out why Jeff Cooper has been so bullish on gold. 2) Scott Redler Talks the Red Dog Reversal, H-Sell Setup, ROKU, and MORE! In this special live training webinar hosted by TradeStation, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down his 2 favorite trading strategies: the Red Dog Reversal, and the H-Sell Setup. 1) 9 Tips for Picking the Right Stocks for Swing Trading As a swing trader, one of the most important decisions you’ll every make is choosing which stocks to trade. You can learn all the winning setups in the world, but if you trade the wrong stocks, you’re going to lose money.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: When Extreme Bulls Get More Bullish
The bulls are back in town. Actually, they’ve been back for 3 weeks. Let’s move to our sentiment indicators so you can see what I mean: (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.96, which is pretty low based on historical norms. This gives us a 3-month spread at 3.00 indicating that traders are fairly bullish. But what’s really interesting is that the curve of the futures term structure is so flat. It’s almost shocking how little volatility is being priced in. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 62, which is down just a bit from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 62 is basically neutral. I’m very surprised at this — I thought it would be higher. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get REALLY interesting. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 52.6% of individual investors are bullish, up from 50.5% last week. This is the highest reading since November 13, 2014. Let’s keep in mind that the AAII sentiment number has been depressed all year. We’ve been hitting record highs nonstop, but this year’s average is just 35.1%. That’s below the long-term average of 38.5%. All year long, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.5. This is well below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.566, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.550 — again, very low. These numbers point to extreme bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect that we’re going to start 2018 with a big bang. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (down from 4 last week 1 neutral (up from 0 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. That time, the bulls were right to be so positive. Will they be right again? It’s hard to tell. We typically see extreme bullish sentiment at market tops. But we’ve had extreme bullish sentiment for 3 weeks now, and the bulls shows no sign of slowing down. They love this market. Now, if you’re not sure of where to put your money in 2018, I’d check out Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report. It includes 24 investment picks that could seriously outperform in 2018, including names in the crypto currency, tech stock, financials, and commodities spaces. Click here to read more.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Manic Panic for the Holidays
Let me get right to the point: traders are crazy bullish right now. I love to troll the bears for crying that everyone’s too bullish, but today they’re finally right. Let’s work through the numbers so you can see what I’m talking about — and I’ll give you an idea of how you can start 2018 on the right foot. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.35, which is extraordinarily low based on historical norms. On Wednesday, it hit 8.9, the lowest level since the 8.56 all-time low from November 24. This gives us a 3-month spread at 3.8 indicating that traders are very bullish, and expect almost no volatility heading into the final week of the year. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 68, exactly flat from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 68 is basically moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 50.5% of individual investors are bullish, a big jump from last week’s 45.0% reading. This is the single highest reading of 2017. So basically, it took 11 months of nonstop grinding up to get individual investors overly excited about stocks! It’s also well above the 38.5% long-term average. All year long, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.560. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.563, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.550 — again, very low. These numbers point to extreme bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect that we’re going to end the new year with a big bang above SPX 2700. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 neutral (up from 3 last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. That time, the bulls were right to be so positive, because after that, all indices hit fresh all-time highs. But now I’m wondering if we’re about to see a repeat of December 2016. For the past two weeks, sentiment has been about as bullish as it gets, which incidentally, is exactly what happened last December. That resulted in a brief drawdown into the 2017 New Year, after which it was off to the races. Now, if you’re not sure of where to put your money in 2017, I’d check out Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook ReportIt includes 18-22 picks that could seriously outperform in 2018, including names in the crypto currency, tech stock, financials, and commodities spaces. Heck, Scott’s even dipping his toe in precious metals! Click here to read more.
Continue Reading -->Where Is the Stock Market Going in 2018? Readers Sound Off!
Where is the stock market going in 2018? Will Bitcoin beat the S&P 500? Is it time to dump tech stocks and get into banks? These are the types of questions we’re asking ourselves as we close out 2017. And since we got so many great responses to our recent Bitcoin survey, we reached out to T3 Live readers to get their thoughts on these questions. So let’s go through the results of our survey asking readers for their 2018 outlooks. Please keep in mind that this is not a scientific survey, so please take all the findings with a grain of salt. Will the S&P 500 finish up or down in 2018? 72.6% of respondents said the S&P will finish up in 2018. No shocker there, considering that the market’s been ripping up in a straight line all year. Which sector will do BEST? 38.4% of respondents said tech will be the #1 sector in 2018. Again, that’s no shocker. Besides Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, technology stocks have been the #1 place to be since President Trump’s 2016 election. Which sector will do WORST? Traders must believe all the “Amazon is taking over the world” headlines, because respondents are very bearish on retail. 27.8% of respondents believe will retail will perform worst, followed by utilities at 25%. Which asset class will perform best in 2018? Respondents are most bullish on stocks, with 38.9% saying stocks will be the best-performing asset class for 2018. Will the VIX rise over 40 at any point during the year? Now here’s where the survey gets interesting. Respondents are bullish on what’s been working: stocks in general, tech stocks in particular, and Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. But 50% expect a spike in the VIX to over 40. Not that traders were necessarily cognizant of the specific numbers, but the VIX hasn’t been over 40 since the October 24, 2015 flash crash — over 2 years ago. Will the S&P 500 have a -10% down day in 2018? The S&P 500 has had only 1 10% down day in history — October 19, 1987 a.k.a Black Monday. Yet 55.7% of respondents said the S&P 500 will have a 10% down day in 2018: Will the S&P 500 enter a bear market in 2018? (defined as dropping 20% off the highs) But in keeping with traders’ generally bullish tone, just 29.6% expect a bear market in 2018, defined as a 20% drop off the highs: What is the single biggest risk facing the stock market in 2018? For this question, we’re simply going to post some of the more interesting responses, completely unedited aside from spelling corrrections: Trump impeding Mueller’s investigation More aggressive Federal Reserve Anything happening to President Trump! Domestic geopolitical shocks as well as foreign policy Revolution against globalization Rates Turkish led civil unrest and war in the middle east. Inverted Yield Curve Selling to fund crypts. Apart from banking all other sectors should be positive overall ‘Trump agenda gets stalled by congress A geopolitical blacks wan (middle east as an example) North Korea The mid-term election Multiple rate hike, but highly unlikely Donald Trump Traders seem most concerned with domestic politics and international unrest. In particular, there is a good deal of worry about some kind of Trump-related surprise. What is your single biggest challenge as a trader or investor? (be as detailed as you’d like!) Traders seem most worried about the Fed, getting picked off by HFT’s/algos, and trading through what feels like an extended market. Here are some responses, again, completely unedited except for spelling corrections: Timing moves so you aren’t buying too early, not getting shredded by HFTs front-running or running stops. Lack of volatility due to incessant money printing and the FED day trading the markets to hold indexes up Keeping up with the market. If not 100% in the market, chasing it was tough. Risk Mgmt. was out the window in 20177. Hope, it comes back in 2018. Keeping emotions out of the process Sizing up my trades and letting them run a little longer Keeping up with technological advances and tax Staying in stocks/funds in an overvalued market Staying with the trend (not reading copious amounts of newsletters crying out that the stock market is overbought because of indicator readings….) Staying Long when the market is at nose bleed territory Too many ETF’s hurts individual stock picking So what are you worried about? Post a comment below and let us know!
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