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Joe Rogan and the AI Curse
The AI trade feels cursed. And we can blame Joe Rogan. Just a little bit. 1. Joe Rogan and the Magazine Cover Indicator 2.0 AI stocks act like trash. Exactly when we see Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang appearing on the Joe Rogan Experience: And Time Magazine naming “the Architects of AI” like OpenAI’s Sam Altman Person of the Year: The magazine cover indicator says that major magazine cover stories sometimes mark tops or bottoms. Emphasis on sometimes because this is pure anecdote. The best known example is BusinessWeek’s “Death of Equities” cover back in 1979. Now AI stocks are getting trashed precisely when there’s wide mainstream celebration of industry leaders like Jensen Huang. And yes folks, the Joe Rogan Experience is the #1 podcast on Earth, which makes it mainstream media: 2. Oracle Is a Mess On November 7, I said Oracle has the ugliest chart in the world. It’s getting uglier. The stock gapped down Thursday after a revenue miss. And it came under more pressure Friday on a Bloomberg report that it’s pushing back completion dates for some of its AI data centers to 2028 from 2027. Who are those data centers allegedly for? OpenAI. Which accounts for $300 billion of Oracle’s customer commitments. And which recently declared a “code red” to counter Google’s Gemini 3 AI model. So the market doubts Oracle can service its growing debt load and hit its long-term growth targets. Result: the stock is down 45% from its September high. And Oracle’s not alone in what feels like a cursed sector: 3. Broadcom Got Decimated Broadcom (AVGO) delivered its 23rd straight earnings beat on Thursday. And the stock’s down over 10% Friday because guidance was strong – but not strong enough. Kudos to JR Romero, who screamed sell at $413 on Wednesday: Remember, Nvidia’s (NVDA) November earnings report was impressive, no doubt. But that stock’s been stuck in the mud. So when you add this all up, the AI trade is in Season 1 Tony Soprano mode: “It’s good to be in something from the ground floor. I came too late for that and I know. But lately, I’m getting the feeling that I came in at the end. The best is over.” In AI, the “Fear Of Missing Out” is dead. The dominant theme is now “The Fear I’m the Last Sucker In.” Industry fundamentals appear strong. But the stocks act like things are about to fall apart. 4. This Valuation Statistic Is Hilarious If AI is supposed to be the next big thing… why is Costco (COST) a more expensive stock than Nvidia (NVDA)? Costco is trading at 42.8 times earnings and Nvidia’s at 25.5. Even though Nvidia is growing 6 times faster. The market is treating Costco as a pillar of stability, which makes sense. And it’s treating Nvidia as a risky cyclical. By the way, could AI stocks have bottomed right when I wrote this article? Stranger things have happened. 5. IWM’s Comeback Has Been Amazing Small caps lagged for years… but they’re catching up. As the Fed’s cut rates and became more dovish, IWM has almost caught up to SPY. They’re just about neck and neck in 2025: Now let’s turn the clock back 10 years. IWM has a TON of room to play catch-up if this trend is to continue. SPY has outperformed it by almost double: 6. The Rate Cut Picture Since the Fed just cut rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, let’s take a look at the next FOMC meeting in January. The market is pricing in a mere 22% chance of a rate cut in January: The market is pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, while the Fed itself expects one. The deciding factor may be who President Trump names as Fed Chair and Vice Chair next year. The President has been vocal in calling for lower rates, so odds are he’s looking for the biggest dove possible. Note that even if Jerome Powell exits the chairman’s throne, he may remain a governor on the Board. 7. Investors Are Bullish The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.6% of investors are bullish: This is the second straight week of above-average bullishness. And it makes sense considering how fast we came off the November 21 lows. Meanwhile, the VIX remains at historically low levels, which is normal for a tight bull market like the current one. 8. Crypto Is The Worst Sector of 2025 We took a look at our handy dandy ETF tracker: It’s quite odd that Bitcoin and Ethereum are down while rates are falling, and while risky stock sectors like semiconductors and biotech are up like mad. And interestingly, the falloff only happened after the crypto peak in October: Could this be a dark harbinger for risk assets? Time will tell. 9. The Slop Bowl Stocks Are Back We’ve talked quite a bit about the “Slop Bowl Bear Market.” But these stocks are rocking December: Sweetgreen (SG) is up 40.8% this month and Chipotle (CMG) and Cava (CAVA) are coming back fast. These could be classic January effect plays, rallying in anticipation of the end of tax loss selling. Could Starbucks (SBUX) be next to go? It’s kinda sorta in the same family of “basic luxury” stocks. 10. One Bull’s Case JR Romero remains bullish on the market and predicts the SPX will hit 7200 before year-end. Here’s a look back from two weeks ago, when he reminded us there was no real bear case:
Continue Reading -->The New Ugliest Chart in the World (Sorry Oracle)
We closed out another fun week in the markets so it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know, starting with… 1. Oracle May No Longer Have the Ugliest Chart in the World Last week, I said “Oracle Has the Ugliest Chart in the World” and it got uglier this week before a Friday stick-save. As of Frida morning, Oracle had dropped 39% from its post-earnings high: BUT… Oracle staged a powerful rally on Friday to end the day green. Trend change? Who knows. But for now, Oracle no longer has the ugliest chart in the world. Full disclosure: I went long Oracle (ORCL) calls Thursday and got out the same day for a loss. So I completely missed the Friday rebound. My bottom-fishing grade for the week is an F-. 2. But Oracle Has Competition… The major indices are just a few percentage points off their all-time highs, thanks to stability in the banks plus a few select index superheavyweights like Apple (AAPL). But below the surface, things are quite nasty, especially for super-speculative growth stocks. We’ve extensively covered the boom in low revenue, high valuation stocks like Oklo (OKLO) and IonQ (IONQ). They are no longer flying high. Many of these names have fallen more than 50% from their highs, like: Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR): -78% Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): -73% Rigetti Computing (RGTI): -59% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): -53% Oklo (OKLO): -49% Pony AI (PONY): -47% IONQ (IONQ): -47% So based on these numbers… BMNR is the ugliest of them all: 3. Expect an Assault on Tom Lee, Owner of the Ugliest Chart in the World The media loves to build up heroes and then tear them down. It happened from 2000 to 2022 with Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, who heads up the iconic ARKK ETF. The knives are about to come out for Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who has been the biggest public face of this equity and crypto bull market. Lee is Chairman of crypto treasury name Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), which is cratering: If this bull market is indeed done, Tom Lee will be the #1 scapegoat for people taking too much risk. 4. Remember Microstrategy Crypto currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have also been taken to the woodshed. One of the biggest stories of the week was Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark with authority. And as you’d expect, related equities got smashed. We took a 3-year lookback at Bitcoin vs. the artist formerly known as MicroStrategy – Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR): MicroStrategy, I mean Strategy, used to trade at a massive premium to its underlying Bitcoin holdings. And as such, Strategy has been playing massive downside catch-up to Bitcoin itself. No mas. The love story is over. 5. Fed, Schmed When Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed, the dovish mood soured fast. Now the CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a mere 43.6% chance of a December rate cut. That’s down from 66.9% last week, and 94.4% a month ago. So if you’ve wondered why rate-sensitive speculative stocks have been slapped around, this is it. 6. Biotech and Health Care Have RULED Biotech and Health Care have lagged the major indices for years. As traders and investors rotated out of tech and high-growth names, biotech and health care have shined in Q4: Biotech (XBI) is up 16% while Health Care (XLV) popped 12%. While SPY is barely green. So Jim Cramer was right. There really is always a bull market somewhere. 7. Sentiment Has Shifted Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 31.6% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months. This is well below the long-term average of 37.5%. Meanwhile, bearish sentiment is at 49.1%. Investors have not been this bearish since September 10. And it makes sense, with all the meltdowns we’re seeing. If things stay weak, sentiment still has plenty of room to deteriorate further. 8. The VIX Is Nowhere Near Extreme The VIX is up in reaction to the rise in volatility. But it’s nowhere near extreme, like in April when we had the big post-Liberation Day tariff meltdown. And the VIX isn’t even close to the peak in mid-October, when regional bank worries were at the forefront: 9. Apple Is Made of Steel As noted above, Apple’s (AAPL) shocking stability has helped keep the indices elevated. It’s the only Mag 7 stock that’s positive in November: But why? Well, we’re past what was a pretty strong earnings report. And AI names have been getting trashed. So Apple’s supposed failure in AI is now a benefit. By the way, Apple is an AI superpower. Because people can download apps onto their Apple devices. And voilà! Meanwhile, try telling your kids they have to switch to Android. And see how fast they cry. 10. If Your Account Is Small, Try Options If your account is on the small side and you’re looking to build up to a bigger stake, it’s time to consider options. David Prince of the Inner Circle VTF® explains why:
Continue Reading -->The Ugliest Chart in the World
We closed out another fun week in the markets so it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know, starting with… 1. Oracle Has the Ugliest Chart in the World Oracle (ORCL) did all the right stuff. They had big earnings. Raised guidance. Announced a massive deal with OpenAI. But after all that positivity, the stock put in a slow-motion “sell the news” decline that erased that massive September earnings gap: The stock is now 32% off the highs, make this the ugliest chart in the world right now. Meanwhile, CDS just hit 2-year highs. Why? The market is starting to wonder how OpenAI can spend hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure. Speaking of ugly 2. SPX Breaks the 50 Day Today, the S&P 500 Index fell below the 50 day moving average for the first time since April. Why? Well, aside from normal profit-taking after a monster rally, we’ve got a shut down government, falling odds of a December rate cut (more on this below), weak consumer sentiment, and real questions about the sustainability of the AI boom. The party can’t go on forever. 3. No 100% Rate Cut Guarantee for You Fed Chair Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed. And now the CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 72.2% probability of another easing: This is down from 82% a month ago. The result: pressure on rate sensitive sectors like speculative small caps and homebuilders. 4. Earnings Season Has Been Pretty Good This earnings season has had its fair share of messes (we’ll get to this in a minute), but the numbers look good overall. According to FactSet, 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, and 79% have beaten revenue estimates. And overall earnings growth is tracking at 10.7%, beating the 7.9% expected back on September 30. Sector-wise, the financials have been the biggest contributor to increase in growth, with big boys like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Capital One (COF) dropping huge beats. 5. The Collapse in Basic Luxury DoorDash (DASH) was a monster stock until it tanked on Wednesday after an earnings miss. And this fits a notable trend in weak earnings for consumer stocks offering “basic luxuries” like: Starbucks (SBUX) – expensive fancy coffee Lululemon (LULU) – expensive yoga pants Chipotle (CMG) & Cava (CAVA) & SweetGreen (SG) – expensive slop bowls This ain’t pretty: 6. Sentiment Is Mixed Up The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.0% of investors are bullish. This is down from 44.0% last week. And it’s basically in-line with the long-term average of 38.5%. On balance, this is positive. Because with the market feeling like it’s on right on the edge of falling, it’s good to see doubt. And on a related note, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 14, reading Extreme Fear. That’s more a product of how F&G is calculated, and doesn’t necessarily mean the market is freaked out. We can all agree people are cautious at best. 7. Sydney Sweeney Is Still Winning American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) got a monster boost from its “Great Jeans” ad campaign in August. The obvious question to ask was “will this last?” And so far, the answer is YES. AEO popped when the campaign was released, then had a monster short squeeze after earnings. It looked like it was filling the gap, but it’s since rebounded. AEO stock is now up 57% from when it announced the campaign. Hopefully, Ms. Sweeney was paid in stock! 8. Cracker Barrel Is Still Losing Since we’re on the topic of culture wars, let’s take a fresh look at restaurant chain Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which enraged its customers by unveiling a new menu and logo in August. The company reversed course and brought back the old stuff, but that hasn’t helped: This might be uglier than Oracle! 9. Apple Is the King Safety Play Remember when Apple (AAPL) was viewed as a tech laggard because it was behind in AI? Well, as I might remind you, you can download any number of AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, etc. to your Apple devices. BOOM! You have AI on your iPhone. And again, I suggest telling your kids “Apple is behind in AI, so we’re taking away your iPhone and giving you an Android phone.” See how fast you get slapped in the face. And if you look at the past 3 months, Apple has been crushing the QQQ’s: And yes, it’s good that Apple is working with Google to bring AI features to Siri. But what matters for Apple is that the average person has no reason to leave the ecosystem. And no matter how many negative news stories get planted, iPhones just keep on selling. That makes Apple the King Safety Play. 10. How to Trade Like a Red-Blooded American JR Romero came to America with nothing. Then he made and lost MILLIONS of dollars in the dot-com crash. Now he’s a full-time pro trader who also runs 2 amazing trading rooms. This is your chance to learn the secrets and mindset behind his success. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE. But first, watch the interview:
Continue Reading -->Amazon Saves the Bull Market + 9 Other Things You Need to Know
The Fed spooked the market this week about future rate cuts but big-tech earnings came in to save the day and keep the bulls running. Now it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know: 1. More Rate Cuts Aren’t Guaranteed Markets got the 25 basis point rate cut they were expecting from the Fed this week… but Chairman Jerome Powell quickly threw some cold water on future expectations. In his press conference, Powell said another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” As of October 31, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows just under 65% of traders now expect a 25bp cut at the December meeting. 2. Amazon is the MAG7 Earnings Winner Amazon (AMZN) shares shot higher on Friday after beating Q3 expectations across the board Thursday. Here’s a look at how the company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Earnings per share: $1.95 vs. $1.57 estimated Revenue: $180.17 billion vs. $177.8 billion estimated Amazon Web Services Revenue: $33 billion vs. $32.42 billion expected Advertising Revenue: $17.7 billion vs. $17.34 billion expected In a statement, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said that AWS is “growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022.” “We continue to see strong demand in AI and core infrastructure, and we’ve been focused on accelerating capacity — adding more than 3.8 gigawatts in the past 12 months” – Andy Jassy That seemed to temper market concerns about the company’s cloud business which have weighed on the stock this year. AMZN has been underperforming its MAG7 peers in 2025, up just 0.7% for the year as of Thursday’s close. 3. Is the AI Trade Unwinding? One reaction to this week’s big tech earnings seemed key to the future of the AI trade theme. Meta Platforms (META) tumbled as increased AI spending overshadowed strong Q3 results for the company. The social media giant hiked its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 to a range between $70 billion and $72 billion vs $66 billion to $72 billion previously. On the earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg defended the massive spending. “It’s pretty early, but I think we’re seeing the returns in the core business. That’s giving us a lot of confidence that we should be investing a lot more, and we want to make sure that we’re not underinvesting.” -Zuckerberg This appears to be the first negative market reaction to big spending on AI… with companies previously being rewarded for such investments. But maybe that’s just a META thing… 4. Nvidia CEO: AI Is In A Virtuous Cycle Speaking at the APEC CEO Summit in South Korea on Friday, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said AI has reached a “virtuous cycle”. “The AIs get better. More people use it. More people use it, it makes more profit, creates more factories, which allows us to create even better AIs, which allows more people to use it. The virtual cycle of AI has been designed, and this is … the reason why you’re seeing the world’s capex going so fast.” -Jensen Huang Basically, demand creates more products, which creates more demand, and more products, and more demand, and more products, and so on. Take a listen to Jensen’s speech below: 5. More Important Earnings Are Ahead This will be another packed week of earnings reports. Highlights include: Monday PM: Palantir (PLTR), Hims and Hers (HIMS) Tuesday AM: Shopify (SHOP), Uber Technologies (UBER), Pfizer (PFE), Spotify (SPOT) Tuesday PM: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Astera Labs (ALAB), Pinterest (PINS) Wednesday AM: McDonald’s (MCD) Wednesday PM: Applovin (APP), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Robinhood (HOOD), Doordash (DASH) Thursday PM: Airbnb (ABNB), Block (XYZ), Trade Desk (TTD), Affirm (AFRM) 6. It’s Jobs Week… With No Jobs Report The government is still shutdown, which means next week’s October nonfarm payrolls report won’t be released. The September JOLTS report scheduled for Tuesday also isn’t likely to be published. That puts all eyes on ADP’s Private Employment Report at 8:30am ET on Wednesday. For now that appears to be the only number the market will be getting to determine the health of the labor market. Here’s the full calendar for the week: 7. Trade Truce Between the U.S. and China President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping came to a trade truce this week. The two leaders met at the ASEAN Summit in South Korea on Thursday. The agreement includes: A one-year pause of Beijing’s rare earth export controls The U.S. cut fentanyl tariffs on China to 10% from 20% China’s original announcement of rare earth export controls on October 9th sparked the latest round of the trade war with Trump threatening 100% tariffs. But China quickly came to the table for negotiations after that threat. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One after his meeting with Xi that the rare earths agreement will be “very routinely extended as time goes by.” “We have a deal. Now, every year we’ll renegotiate the deal, but I think the deal will go on for a long time, long beyond the year. But all of the rare earth has been settled, and that’s for the world.” -Trump The lower fentanyl tariffs reduces the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods to around 47%. Trump said he will visit China in April and Xi will come to the U.S. at a later date. 8. Sentiment Turns Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.0% of investors are bullish. That was up 7.2 points from the week before and higher than the historical average of 37.5% for the fifth time in the past seven weeks. 9. Netflix Announces Stock Split Netflix (NFLX) stock is about to become more accessible for the retail community. The company announced a 10-for-1 stock split after hours on Thursday. Netflix will issue 9 additional shares for every one share held on November 10. The stock will then begin trading on a split-adjusted basis at the market open on November 17. Netflix said the move will make its stock more accessible to employees participating in its stock option program. 10. David Prince Teaches You How Small Accounts Should Use Options David Prince, the leader of T3 Live’s Inner Circle VTF®, often uses options to add Alpha to a stock
Continue Reading -->2 Biggest Days Ever + 9 Other Things You Need to Know Right Now
We closed out another big week in markets with the SPX and QQQ hitting record highs after the light CPI report. So it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know: 1. The Rate Cuts Are Coming Thanks to the government shutdown, we’ve been waiting forever for a CPI report. We finally got one Friday, and the numbers were lighter-than-expected. The headline number grew by 3.0%. That’s not low, but at least it was below the consensus estimate. Now, traders are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. And 94% of traders expect a total of 50 bp in cuts by year-end. Speaking of next Wednesday… 2. The Tech Megapowers Report Earnings Here’s a partial list of the companies reporting on Wednesday and Thursday: Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META) Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) That’s 5 of the Mag 7, and they represent 22.5% of the S&P 500 index. So far, Q3 earnings season has been stronger than expected (even with rising earnings estimates), and these names could seal the deal on how things turn out overall. So between the Fed and all these earnings reports (plus ones we haven’t mentioned like CAT/LLY/MA), this looks like 2 of the biggest trading days of all time! And oh yeah… we also get the PCE Price Index, plus Japan and Canada’s rate decisions, and Eurozone CPI. Here’s the full calendar: 3. It Could Be Make or Break Time for Nvidia All those big tech earnings reports will have a big impact on Nvidia (NVDA). AI powerhouses like OpenAI, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and CoreWeave (CRWV) have been sucking down AI chips like crazy. And Nvidia longs want confirmation that the spending spree will continue. Especially since it looks like AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) may be taking bigger pieces of the pie. So Nvidia will move big based on the capex forecasts of these tech giants. It’s the biggest potential catalyst until earnings on November 19. 4. Tony Robbins Is Your New AI Guy I am an AI skeptic, because I question the real-world financial value of all the big AI investments we see. Now, I see that the nation’s #1 Life and Business Strategist (his words, not mine) Tony Robbins is hosting an “AI Advantage Summit:”Now, I have nothing against Tony Robbins. I agree with a lot of what he says. But isn’t this the type of thing you see closer to a top than a bottom? It makes me worry. 5. Sentiment Is… MEH The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.9% of investors are bullish. This is more-or-less neutral, and up slightly from last week. And it makes sense because market participants are in a state of confusion because of: An earnings season that feels all over the place, at least in terms of reactions Minimal economic data because of the government shutdown The nonstop news flow out of the White House And speaking of sentiment… 6. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index Is Not Broken As of early Friday afternoon, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index was at 34, indicating Fear. Is it broken as many market participants think? With markets at record things, sentiment should at least be neutral, like AAII is. Right? Remember, it’s normal for sentiment to be neutral when market is going up amid a confusing news flow. Also, Fear & Greed is not determined by a survey, but 7 market indicators including things like Junk Bond Demand: Maybe you don’t find it useful, but it’s not broken. It’s just spitting out what the recipe says. And speaking of sentiment one more time, trader JC Parets posted a poignant Tweet on Wednesday: 7. Do Books About the 1929 Crash Come Out at the Top? Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book “1929” hit the New York Times best-seller list. And JC had the most interesting reaction: Reading this new book about the 1929 crash has me wondering… do books like this usually come out right before a market crash, or when bull markets still have plenty of gas left? https://t.co/M1BqbSZlZi — J.C. Parets (@JC_ParetsX) October 22, 2025 So if most traditional indicators are reading neutral, and we have a best-selling book about 1929 out, and the market’s at record highs we can conclude that… Nobody knows where sentiment is right now. It’s a mess. 8. Extended Hours Options Trading May Be Coming Soon I recently suggested that option tradings hours should be extended, because it would be a huge convenience during earnings season: While I can’t confirm it for sure, I will assume the CBOE saw the video (it does have a whopping 125 views), because they filed a proposal with the SEC to extend hours for equity options trading. According to the filing, the CBOE would add a morning session from 7:30 to 9:25 am ET, plus an afternoon session from 4 to 4:15 pm ET. I guess it’s fair to give options traders a 5-minute potty break at 9:25, right? Now if only Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) would report earnings before 4:15 pm ET so their options could fit into that afternoon window… 9. Biotech Has Been on Fire One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed’s dovish leaning has been biotech. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is the #1 major ETF in October, and it’s now up almost 21% year-to-date. But if you want to see the really hot stuff, look at heavily-shorted small and mid-cap biotechs. We used Koyfin to screen for biotechs with a market cap of $500 million to $5 billion, and short interest above 10%. Many are up 30%+ this month alone: 10. You Too Can Be a Sultan of Swing Trading! JR Romero recently unveiled his swing trading secrets in this exclusive webinar. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE.
Continue Reading -->President Trump Ruins the Party
The government is shut down so key economic data remain missing in action. Is that a problem? No way! The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all made record highs this week. So let’s look at the 10 things you need to know right now! 1) President Trump Ruined the Party I’m just sitting here cranking out this article in peace… and President Trump just dropped this bomb on Truth Social: So China’s getting tougher when it comes to exports of rare earth materials, and Trump is considering fighting back with a bunch of tariffs. This gave traders an excuse to do some profit taking after a powerful start to Q4. The question is – was Friday’s dip just another buying opportunity? Or a prelude to a slopfest like we had in April? Now whether you like Trump or not, we all have to admit markets are more interesting with him around. Real world effects notwithstanding… We’ll talk about The Ultimate Trump Trade soon, but isn’t it odd that… 2) Bullish Sentiment Hit a 10-Month High The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.9% of investors are bullish. This is the fourth straight week of above-average bullishness. And it’s the highest bullish reading since December 5, 2024. So yes, higher stock prices pushed sentiment to a 10-month high right before President Trump kicked us in the shin. 3) Earnings Season Is About to Kick Off HARD Next week’s economic calendar is jammed with key data like CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims, NFP, and Retail Sales. But we may get none of these numbers if the shutdown continues. The good thing is we’re about to get assaulted with earnings reports from heavyweights in two key sectors: Banks: JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and others. Semiconductors: ASML Holding (ASML) & Taiwan Semi (TSM) So we’ll get key insights on housing, consumer strength, and AI. The problem is that earnings estimates have been rising ahead of earnings season – not falling like in recent quarters. So the bar is high. But back on the economic numbers, don’t forget that… Related: 7 Things I HATE About Earnings Season: 4) Interactive Brokers Will Update Us on The Ultimate Trump Trade Leading brokerage Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is one of my biggest long-term stock investments, so take what I say with a grain of salt. They report earnings Thursday and could give us an update on “The Ultimate Trump Trade” – the basket of financial stocks that benefit from a combination of market volatility and rising stock/crypto prices, including Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Webull (BULL). Interactive Brokers should give us insights on what trading volumes could look like in October. That could mean dip buying opportunities in this basket of stocks, so keep an eye out. 5) Fed Chair Powell Speaks on Tuesday Even with the economic data mystery, the market is still banking on a rate cut later this month. The CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 95% probability of an October rate cut. So the market assumes the missing data supports the Fed’s dovish course. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell will give a speech on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual meeting in Philadelphia. On October 9, Powell was unable to make his appearance at the Fed Community Bank conferences, so the stakes may be higher for this Tuesday. 6) 2025 Is the Year of Heavy Metal Yep, SPY is up 15% and Bitcoin is up 28%. Pretty impressive. But have you seen the metals complex? We sampled some of the more popular metals ETFs and the numbers are shocking, with gold miners (GDX) up 125%: Silver, copper, palladium, and uranium are also putting up massive numbers. It’s been a perfect storm because of trends like the falling US dollar, lower rates, flight to safety, central bank buying, institutional demand, and plain old supply-demand constraints. 7. Jamie Dimon Made Me Question AI Earlier this week, JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the company spends $2 billion a year on AI. And it’s now saving that much money a year as a result. Now, spending $2 billion to save $2 billion doesn’t sound like anything great. But those savings should snowball over time because $2 billion spent this year should save at least $2 billion this year, and also provide savings next year. And I’m a JP Morgan shareholder, so I’m glad to see this. My concern is why aren’t more companies making announcements like this? Are they keeping things quiet to avoid freaking out employees fearful of being replace by ChatGPT? An MIT report showed that most AI programs have “little to no measurable impact on P&L.” So it’s exciting to see all these mega deals like the AMD (AMD)/OpenAI link-up. But where’s the beef? More companies should be saying “we saved $XYZ or increased sales by XYZ% through the use of AI.” Right? 8. Ray Dalio Warns of Danger Ahead Super investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, is comparing the current climate to pre-World War 2. In a Bloomberg interview, Dalio warned about skyrocketing US government debt, saying “it’s like plaque in the arteries that then begins to squeeze out the spending.” But good luck explaining that to a politician. He also said “civil war of some sort” is developing in the US and other parts of the world. Let’s hope he’s wrong. 9. Utilities Might Heat Up We might be entering a perfect environment for the typically sleepy utilities. We have economic uncertainty, rising power demand, a friendlier regulatory environment, and falling interest rates. The market’s not blind to this, with the Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU) up 22% YTD, and up 4% in October: Plus, many XLU components like Constellation Energy (CEG) offer exposure to the booming nuclear power trend. FYI – I have a small XLU position. 10) This Market Cycle Expert Predicts SPX 7100 Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of The Stock
Continue Reading -->No Government, No Problem: Life Is Good!
The government shut down, but the bulls are open for business, sending stocks to all-time highs. Life is GOOD on Wall Street! So let’s talk about the 10 things you need to know right now, starting with… 1. Small Caps Are Rocking HARD Yes, the big caps are off to a great start this quarter, with 45 SPX stocks making record highs in the past 3 days. But the real story is the small caps rocking hard, with IWM outperforming SPY and QQQ by a decent margin. We’re also seeing strength in other rate sensitive groups like utilities and biotech. Why? Because the market’s still banking on rate cuts, which are good for small caps (at least according to conventional wisdom). The CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows a 97% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in October: Now, this begs an obvious question: could the October rate cut create a massive sell-the-news reaction? The answer is yes. Of course. But if everyone’s expecting a sell-the-news… maybe we just keep on rocking? 2. Next Friday Is Now Important Unfortunately, the October 3 Nonfarm Payrolls report has been delayed to the 10th, so we have to wait for one more week to confirm what we know – the job market stinks. And judging by the action in the small caps, the market is behaving like we got an awful jobs number that gives the Fed more room to cut. Or maybe the bulls are taking the attitude that “if the bad economic data isn’t coming out, the economy is actually good.” Who knows? But let’s look at my new #1 economic indicator: 3. The Slop Bowl Recession Is real Yes yes, I know the stock market is not the same as the economy. But if people can’t afford slop bowls, we have a problem. (a slop bowl is a mash-up of food from a fast casual restaurant, usually served in a bowl) Chipotle (CMG), Cava (CAVA), and Sweetgreen (SG) have been destroyed this year for various reasons including slowing sales and rising costs. And I’m calling this chart my “Slop Bowl Indicator:” If people can’t afford burrito bowls, what can they afford? 4. Bitcoin Is Going WILD Bitcoin hit a new record high above $123,000 on Friday as the market embraces an anti-establishment theme in the wake of the government shutdown. Ethereum and Solana also posted solid gains, though they are still below their own all-time highs. Will we see catch-up trades? Maybe – so put ’em on the radar. But do you know who’s still the boss in terms of performance? THIS: 5. Gold Is Still Dominating For all the talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum domination and crypto treasury companies, did you notice that gold is still kicking butt? It’s outperforming both the flagship cryptos with a 47% gain this year. And the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up a crazy 127%: What can we say? It’s been an amazing time for gold bugs, who waited for this type of action forever. 6. The Ultimate Trump Trade RAGES On It’s been a while since we checked in on the “Ultimate Trump Trade” a.k.a. the basket of stocks that benefit from financial market volatility and rising stock/crypto prices, including: Robinhood (HOOD) Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Coinbase (COIN) Charles Schwab (SCHW) Webull (BULL) They are having an amazing year, topped off by Robinhood’s 301% gain: By the way, did you know that Robinhood is the #1 performing S&P 500 stock of 2025? And just a few years ago, it was left for dead. Congrats to those who held on. 7. The Earnings Are Coming Aside from next week’s economic data (namely Powell speaking Thursday & NFP on Friday), the next big thing for the market is Q3 earnings season. The fireworks start Tuesday October 14 with JP Morgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C) all hitting in the morning. According to FactSet, Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to grow by 8.0%, up from 7.3% on June 30. So estimates have gone up. In recent quarters, estimates were crazy low, making it easy for companies to beat forecasts. And S&P 500 earnings crushed expectations overall. Now we have the opposite situation. I don’t like this. Not one bit. 8. Cathie Wood Is Having a Heck of a Year Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is the hot strategist of the moment, which is well-deserved because of his amazing calls. But Cathie Wood, hero of the post-pandemic bull market is killing it. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 57% year-to-date: Tesla (TSLA), which is down year-to-date, is almost 12% of the ETF. So it was a boat anchor hanging from ARKK’s neck in terms of performance. And ARKK still killed it. Why? Because of big bets on winners like Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), Shopify (SHOP), and Palantir (PLTR). Well done! 9. It’s a Great Year for Garbage One of our favorite screens to run in Koyfin is for companies with these attributes: $2.5 billion or higher market cap $100 million in sales or less In other words, companies that don’t even have sales, let alone profits – that are highly valued in the stock market. We came up with 34 stocks and these are how they are doing in 2025: 28 are up and just 6 are down The average return is +95% (this includes the losers) Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (BMNR) is in #1 with a 630% gain, while the President’s Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) is in last place with a 49% loss. Here’s the full table: 10. Options Traders Need to Stop Doing THIS Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading recently sat down on the T3 Alpha Show to discuss what he learned as a trader for Goldman Sachs and on the CBOE Floor. If you want to stop losing big money in options, you must listen to Scott:
Continue Reading -->We Want Rate Cuts!
We closed out another fun week in the markets, and it’s time to look ahead. Because traders have one thing on their minds: rate cuts! 1. Traders Are Still Pricing in Rate Cuts Following Friday’s in-line PCE Price Index report, traders were pricing in an 85.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in October. This is down slightly from last week. But next week, we get several key employment data points: Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Thursday: Jobless Claims Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls If labor markets continue to deteriorate, don’t be surprised if that number goes to 100%. 2. Equities Are Pricing in Lower Rates This quarter, we’ve seen notable strength in biotech, semiconductors, gold, small caps, and regional banks. That implies traders have been bracing for lower rates, in a classic example of pricing moving before the fundamentals change. And interestingly, we looked at our universe of 30 ETFs, and only 2 are negative in Q3: consumer staples (XLP) and natural gas (UNG): Data: Koyfin 3. Martin Shkreli Put Quantum Stocks on the Hot Seat Hands down, this is the most entertaining video I’ve seen this year. Pharma bro and Wu-Tang Clan antagonist Martin Shkreli laid the smack down on quantum computing stocks like IonQ in an intense debate with Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities. It was released months ago, but went viral on Twitter/X this week. WARNING: you may be tempted to short quantum stocks after you watch this. And depending on the market environment, that may be hazardous to your health. If you’re long ANY quantum computing stocks, please watch this video. Thank me later when you sell all your stocks.@MartinShkreli MOGGED. Shay is in fucking TEARS @ the end. Hard to not take out a mammoth short position after watching this lol.$QBTS $RGTI $IONQ $ARQQ $QUBT pic.twitter.com/bz8iyTORm3 — Zoomer 🧢 (@zoomyzoomm) September 24, 2025 And speaking of quantum… 4. Companies With No Sales Are Doing Great One of our favorite screens is for companies with a $2.5 billion market cap and under $100 million sales. In other words, high valuation and little to no sales. We found 18 US stocks fitting that criteria that are up more than 50% in Q3: The leader of the pack is the super-volatile QMMM Holdings (QMMM), which is up over 7,600% this quarter after pivoting to becoming a crypto treasury bet: And speaking of crypto Treasury bets… 5. Tom Lee Explains the Power of Crypto Treasury Companies A common question among traders and investors is “why buy a crypto treasury company like MicroStrategy (MSTR) or Bitminer (BMNR) rather than Bitcoin/Ethereum?” Tom Lee of Fundstrat explains: Tom Lee explaining why he thinks you should buy a Ethereum Treasury company over just buying Ethereum pic.twitter.com/rHyYCAwLZi — Treasury Edge (@TreasuryEdge) September 24, 2025 6. Intel Is a Star Intel (INTC) has been on fire as of late thanks to a $5 billion investment from Nvidia (NVDA), and speculation of some type of partnership with Apple (AAPL). It’s now up 76% year-to-date. And it would be the #1 stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2025… if it wasn’t kicked out last year. In fact, Intel is #16 in the SPX this year… more than doubling Nvidia’s return. 7. Investors Are Still Bullish For the second week in a row, 41.7% of investors are bullish according to the AAII Sentiment Survey: There was not a single bullish reading from August 6 to September 10. So there is a chance investors turned bullish right at the top. Of course, the indices are barely off the highs so let’s not get carried away just yet. 8. Tesla (TSLA) Took the Mag 7 Lead – and It’s Still Hated Tesla took off like a rocket in September, and is up 31%, crushing its Mag 7 brethren: Wedbush Morgan’s Dan Ives hiked his Tesla price target to $600 based on AI growth potential, making him the biggest bull on the street. But here’s a fun fact: the average Tesla target price is just $336.18. That means the average analysts thinks Tesla will DROP by 23%. Then again, Tesla is an island unto itself and often seems completely detached from its fundamentals. 9. Meet James Rich Young: Trading Prodigy and Mentorship Teacher In this episode of The T3 Alpha Show, I sat down with James “Rich” Young to learn about his meteoric rise in trading and social media. Want to learn from James? Check out the Pristine Mentorship with James Young and Sami Abusaad.
Continue Reading -->Introducing The T3 Alpha Show podcast
Yes, we finally have a podcast: The T3 Alpha Show! Host Michael Comeau connects you with leading traders, investors, and industry executives to provide a mix of education and entertainment. So far, we’ve published 5 episodes so far with special guests: Sam Rabinowitz: an aspiring trader who tried to get a Wall Street Job by holding up a sign Sami Abusaad: our Director of Education who went from bored CPI to top pro trader Charlie Moon: a former professional poker player who harnesses AI to supercharge his trading Scott Bauer: a former Goldman Sachs and CBOE floor trader that’s sharing his pro options trading strategies with you Rob Koyfman: founder and CEO of Koyfin, a leading financial data platform with 500,000+ users Here’s how to find us: The T3 Alpha Show on Spotify The T3 Alpha Show on YouTube The T3 Alpha Show Website (under construction) We hope you listen and subscribe!
Continue Reading -->9 Things You Need to Know: Inflation Is Back In Focus
We just wrapped up an exciting week that was all about the Fed. So what’s next for the market? This week we’ll be focused on inflation, the housing market, chipmakers, and more! Read on to find out what you should have your eyes on. 1. The Fed Still Cares About This Week’s Inflation Number Remember at Jackson Hole when Fed Chair Jerome Powell basically told the market they don’t care about inflation anymore and are instead focused on jobs? “The time has come for policy to adjust… The inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased… We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.” -Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole 2025 Well that seemed to change at this week’s Fed meeting when the head of the Central Bank paired a dovish dot plot with hawkish language. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday with the dot plot showing two more cuts this year and one in 2026. But the Chairman called that move a “risk management cut” and said the Fed expects the impact of inflation on goods price “to continue to build” over the next year. So that means Friday’s PCE Price Index — which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — means a little more to the market now than it would have before this Fed meeting. That number will be out at 8:30am ET on Friday morning and it could be a market mover if it comes in hot or cool. Plus, the week starts on Monday with a big group of Fed speakers including the Presidents of the New York Fed President, St. Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, and Richmond Fed. 2. Key Housing Data Is On Deck Headed into this week’s Fed meeting, mortgage rates saw a massive drop with Mortgage News Daily showing the average 30-year rate hit a low of 6.13% on Tuesday ahead of the rate cut. But as the bond market rallied post-Fed, mortgage rates jumped alongside the 10-year Treasury yield. As of Friday, here’s a look at where rates stand: We’ll get some important data on the health of the U.S. housing market this week with two reports: August New Home Sales, 10:00am ET Wednesday August Existing Home Sales, 10:00am ET Thursday 3. Can Micron Keep Running? Micron Technology (MU) still hasn’t reported earnings… why do these chipmakers report so late? The company reports Fiscal Q4 earnings after the close on Tuesday and analysts love this stock: Expectations for this earnings report are: EPS: $2.86, +49.5% from last quarter Revenue: $11.13 billion, +19.6% from last quarter MU notched a fresh all-time high of $170.45 per share this week and is up over 30% from its last earnings report. So how good does that earnings report need to be? We’ll see on Tuesday. 4. Is Intel the next MP Materials? Nvidia (NVDA) announced a massive $5 billion investment in Intel (INTC) on Thursday. That deal comes after the U.S. government took a 10% stake in the chipmaker back in August. It’s all a little reminiscent of MP Materials (MP). In mid-July, the Department of Defense said it would invest $400 million in the rare-earth materials company and Apple (AAPL) announced a $500 million partnership with the company. Since then, the stock price has rocketed higher from around $30 to over $70 per share. INTC surged 22.8% on Thursday, the day the deal was announced, for its best daily performance in 38 years. Inner Circle’s David Prince discusses whether INTC is next in line for a massive move like MP: P.S. David is hosting a free webinar next week, sign up here for a special opportunity to join his elite community inside the Inner Circle VTF®. 5. Still Waiting on a TikTok Deal After a call on Friday, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping still haven’t come to an agreement on a deal for the U.S. to take over TikTok. In a Truth Social post, Trump said it was a “very productive call”. In a follow-up post, the President also said he agreed to “go to China in the early part of next year” and that XI “would, likewise, come to the United States at an appropriate time.” Oracle (ORCL) is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of a TikTok deal after it was confirmed this week the company is part of the consortium of investors looking to take over the U.S. arm of the social media site. Oracle already hosts TikTok’s U.S. data and a new agreement could present additional revenue opportunities for the tech company like advertising revenue. 6. Quarterly Earnings Reports Could Go Away The SEC Chairman told CNBC on Friday the agency will propose a rule change to do away with quarterly earnings reports for publicly traded companies. This comes after President Trump called for the change in a post on Truth social earlier in the week. “In principle, I think to propose change in what our rules are now, I think would be a good way forward, and then we’ll consider that and move forward after that.. for the sake of shareholders and public companies, the market can decide what the proper cadence is.” -Paul Atkins, SEC Chair President Trump floated the idea of semi-annual reports saying such a move “will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.” 7. iPhone 17 Global Sales Begin All eyes are on Apple (AAPL) as its newly announced iPhone 17 line hit store shelves globally on Friday. The company’s iPhone sales have been under pressure in recent years as it faces more and more competition – especially in China. But data from JD.com showed the first minute of iPhone 17 series preorders surpassed day-one order volume for the iPhone 16 series. That may be a good sign for the tech giant. Apple launched 4 phones in the 17 series: the iPhone 17, iPhone 17
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