It’s a Big Week
Most regions around the world are closed for May Day. FRC shareholders are getting wiped out as JPM and the FDIC pick up the pieces. The FOMC is this Wednesday. Last week, the bears broke the SPX below 4089 but could only keep it below for a day. On Friday, it cleared 4138 to see 4170. Big moves in names like MSFT and META helped. SPY briefly broke the $410-$408 area last week and then the active bulls took it back on Thursday to see $415.94 Friday. It wasn’t the easiest of action but we had our levels. Now we’ll see if we digest ahead of the FOMC Wednesday. $418.31 is the February high. QQQ had a battle around the $314.97 pivot last week. The active bulls took it back on Thursday. On Friday it hit $322.65. Watch this sector as it’s been leading the way. If it holds the $318 area this week, the door is open for a move toward $334. Now let’s look at some individual names. AAPL keeps proving it has “Go To” status. It cleared $165 to get some momentum back to see $169.85. It reports on Thursday. Maybe it goes red to green today. We’ll see where it is Thursday for option strategies. For today, see if it holds the $167 area. TSLA reclaimed $153.15 and had a pretty strong session Thursday to have some switch gears. On Friday it cleared and held $160.87 to see $165. Perhaps this can get more attention. See if it can go red to green and how it deals with Friday’s high for a quick push. MSFT was great post-earnings. Some were long vs. $292ish. Other waited for it to clear $299.57 to see a high of $308+ to manage. It needs to hold $303. META had a big gap and go but was very choppy yesterday. We’ll see can if it hold $235.75 or if it filsl a portion of that gap to get choppier. If it holds, it can clear $241.69. GOOGL is tricky but keeps building. If it continues to hold $102-$103, perhaps there’s a better move if it can clear the $108.37-$109.20 area with volume. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-05-01 at 8.11.10 AM
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Another Bank Failure
DJIA Futures: +9 (+0.03%) SPX Futures: -3 (-0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -17 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are flat as another regional bank fails and traders get ready for a big week on Wall Street. Let’s get right to it! JPMorgan Buys First Republic After Failure First Republic Bank (FRC) was officially seized by regulators this morning, making it the third regional bank to fail since March. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was the winner of a weekend auction for the bank and shares are up 4.3% ahead of the open. The largest bank in the U.S. is getting about $92 billion in deposits and taking over $73 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities. JPMorgan will share losses on mortgages and commercial loans assumed in the deal with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. It also received a $50 billion credit line from the FDIC. This deal will cost the FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund $13 billion. The FDIC said, “As part of the transaction, First Republic Bank’s 84 offices in eight states will reopen as branches of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, today during normal business hours. All depositors of First Republic Bank will become depositors of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, and will have full access to all of their deposits.” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said, “Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did. This acquisition modestly benefits our company overall, it is accretive to shareholders, it helps further advance our wealth strategy, and it is complementary to our existing franchise.” SoFi Rallies On Earnings Beat SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shares are rallying 6.4% in premarket trade after beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the online lending giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted loss per share: $0.05 vs $0.08 expected Revenue: $460.16 million vs $441 million expected SoFi added 433,000 members during the quarter, bringing the total to 5.7 million. The company hiked its full-year guidance now expecting revenue between $1.96 billion to $2.02 billion vs $1.93 billion to $2 billion previously. For the second quarter, SoFi expects revenue of $470 million to $480 million vs analysts’ expectations for $463.8 million. Big Week Traders are gearing up for a busy week on Wall Street with earnings, the Fed, and some big economic data. More than 1,400 companies are set to report earnings this week including giants like Ford (F), Starbucks (SBUX), Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT), and Apple (AAPL). Plus, it’s Fed week with the central bank’s latest rate decision set to be released on Wednesday. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 87.5% of traders expecting another 25 basis point hike this week. And it’s also jobs week. The Labor Department releases the official April jobs report Friday morning. Other key jobs data this week includes the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, ADP’s April private employment report on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. In Case You Missed It The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading for April was unchanged at 63.5 on Friday. That was in line with expectations. The expectations index improved to 60.5 from the 60.3 estimate. The current conditions index fell to 68.2 from the 68.6 estimate. Consumers’ 1-year inflation expectations remained at 4.6% while the 5-year outlook ticked higher to 3.0%.
Continue Reading -->What’s On Tap for Traders: May 1 – 5
What a week! We had: Big earnings beats like Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) Whiffs like Amazon (AMZN) and Snap (SNAP) First Republic (FRC) melting down A slowdown in US GDP Here’s your trading calendar before we dig into one of the busiest weeks of 2023: (click to enlarge) First, let’s start with a quick review of the recent action: Tech Dominates… For Now Stocks finished slightly higher for the month as buyers overlooked Amazon’s (AMZN) post-earnings decline, the US GDP miss, and the First Republic (FRC) implosion. Related: How Jeff Cooper Nailed Amazon at $122 And in an impressive turnaround from a weak start, the SPY finished right at the highs of the day: Year-to-date, QQQ’s is decimating the other major index ETFs thanks to the tech stock boom. Of course, next week is huge for tech investors thanks to these earnings reports: AMD (AMD) on Tuesday Qualcomm (QCOM) on Wednesday Apple (AAPL) on Thursday Apple always demands major attention from investors, and the stakes are high thanks to the stock’s 29%+ gain this year: David Prince tells us “Slowing iPhone demand could be offset by the services business picking up steam, but the upside potential looks muted from here.” If you’re interested in trading Apple pre and post-earnings, check out Inner Circle because David and his team will be tracking the stock closely next week. AMD and Qualcomm should also be on your radar because we’ll get insights into where we are in the semiconductor cycle. And of course, it will be fun to see how many times they say ‘AI’ on their conference calls. Can they top Google, Microsoft, and META, each of whom said ‘AI’ nearly 50 times? Other Earnings Reports of Interest The fun does not end with tech. Starbucks (SBUX) reports Tuesday. The stock hit a 1-year high this week in the wake of strong numbers from McDonald’s (MCD) and Pepsi (PEP): So we’ll see if the struggling consumer still has cash for those fabulous orange mocha frappucinos: Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) reports Thursday. Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing risk assets this year, so we’ll see if that’s driving results for Coinbase, which has been down in the dumps thanks to regulatory threats: And on Friday, meme stock giant AMC Entertainment (AMC) drops its earnings numbers. We also have: Monday: Stryker (SYK), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Tuesday: Uber (UBER), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Eaton (ETN) Wednesday: CVS (CVS), Estee Lauder (EL), Progressive (PGR) Thursday: ConocoPhillips (COP), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Shopify (SHOP), Square (SQ), Doordash (DASH) Friday: Cigna (CI) Okay, that’s enough earnings talk because… The Fed Is Dead Ahead We’ve got a critical week ahead on the US economic front. The Fed will announce its latest rate decision on Wednesday. T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler said “There’s a 90% chance they go 25 bps, and most think that’s end of the rate hike cycle. This could be an inflection point for this cycle. Many people think the Fed will cut in the second half, but I don’t see that happening unless we go to SPX 3700 or lower. If we hold above 4100 and start squeezing towards resistance at 4300, the Fed isn’t cutting.” IMPORTANT: Scott is hosting a Fed Day trading event in the Alpha Team VTF® on Fed Day. You can sign up right here. Scott’s Positions as of 2023-04-28 at 3.39.56 PM Click to enlarge On top of the Fed, we’ve got plenty of employment data coming including: Tuesday: JOLTs Job Openings Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls We also have some key international reports, including: Tuesday: Australia Rate decision, Eurozone CPI Wednesday: China Manufacturing PMI Thursday: ECB Rate Decision Friday: Canada Employment How do Traders Feel? BEARISH Do traders hate this market? Yes. Hedge funds have the largest net short position in S&P 500 futures since 2011: Just as large speculators/hedge funds have built largest net short position for S&P 500 futures since 2011 (blue), leveraged investors have also boosted net short positions on 10y U.S. Treasury futures (orange) to record pic.twitter.com/zfcqdrHO57 — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 25, 2023 And the American Association of Individual Investors says just 24.1% of investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 37.5%: “Optimism is unusually low for the 49th time out of the past 69 weeks,” AAII says. Get to Know Kira Turner Rodeo is more dangerous than NFL football. And rodeo is where Inner Circle’s Kira Turner learned risk management. Learn more about her story in this episode of the Madam Trader podcast: We’ll see you bright and early Monday morning! Good luck out there!
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Amazon’s Storm Cloud
DJIA Futures: -107 (-0.3%) SPX Futures: -8 (-0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -11 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are falling as traders digest the latest batch of earnings and new inflation data. Let’s get right to it! Amazon’s Cloud Outlook Disappoints Amazon (AMZN) shares are down 2.4% ahead of the open as the company’s uncertain outlook for its cloud services overshadows strong Q1 results. Here’s how the company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $0.31 vs $0.21 expected Revenue: $127.4 billion vs $124.6 billion expected Amazon Web Services revenue: $21.3 billion vs $21.22 billion expected Advertising revenue: $9.5 billion vs $9.1 billion expected AWS sales rose about 16% in Q1, which was a slowdown from 20% in the previous quarter. Amazon’s CFO warned that slowdown is continuing. He said, “customers continue to evaluate ways to optimize their cloud spending in response to these tough economic conditions in the first quarter. We are seeing these optimizations continue into the second quarter with April revenue growth rates about 500 basis points lower than what we saw in Q1.” Amazon’s stock initially rallied in after-hours trading Thursday following the earnings beat but then dropped after the CFO’s comments on slowing cloud revenue. The company expected Q2 revenue between $127 billion and $133 billion vs analysts’ estimates of $129.8 billion. Snap Plunges On Q1 Miss Snap Inc (SNAP) shares are tumbling 18.5% in premarket trade after missing Q1 expectations. Here’s how the social media giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.01 vs $0.01 per share loss expected Revenue: 989 million vs $1.01 billion expected Daily active users: 383 million vs 384 million expected Average revenue per user: $2.58 vs $2.63 expected Snap did not provide any official Q2 guidance but said its “internal forecast” for revenue would be $1.04 billion, which would be down 6% year over yera and lower than analysts’ estimates of $1.10 billion. Intel Beats Despite Largest Quarterly Loss In Company History Intel (INTC) shares are up 6.8% ahead of the open after beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the chipmaker’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted loss per share: $0.04 vs $0.15 expected Revenue: $11.7 billion vs $11.04 billion expected Earnings plummeted 133% year over year while revenue dropped nearly 26%. The $2.8 billion net loss was the largest in company history. Intel forecast Q2 revenue of $12 billion and a $0.04 loss per share vs analysts’ expectations for a $0.01 loss per share on $11.75 billion in revenue. Exxon Mobil Reports Record Q1 Profit Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares are up 0.3% in premarket trade after reporting a record profit in the first quarter. Here’s how the oil giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $2.83 vs $2.60 expected Revenue: $86.56 billion vs $85.65 billion expected Exxon’s CFO said, “We delivered a first-quarter record despite the fact that energy prices and refining margins are softening a bit.” The earnings beat was driven by increased oil and gas production which rose by nearly 300,000 barrels per day year over year. That higher production helped offset lower gas prices during the quarter. Chevron Tops Q1 Expectations Chevron (CVX) shares are slipping 0.5% ahead of the open despite beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $3.55 vs $3.40 expected Revenue: $50.79 billion vs $48.60 billion expected Higher margins in Chevron’s oil refining segment helped income surge more than five times to $1.8 billion. But profit in the oil and gas production business tumbled 25% as prices dropped. PCE Inflation Continues To Slow The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge slowed as expected in March. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% last month and 4.2% year over year. The core PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 4.6% annually. That was in line with expectations on a monthly basis and slightly higher than estimates for a 4.5% gain annually. In Case You Missed It Pending home sales fell unexpectedly in March. The National Association of Realtors reported the number of contracts signed to purchase a home last month fell 5.2%. That missed expectations for a 0.5% increase and was the first drop since November. Pending sales were down 23.2% year over year. Lyft (LYFT) shares rose 1.5% on Thursday after the company announced layoffs. A new SEC filing showed the rideshare giant plans to cut 1,072 jobs, representing 26% of its workforce. These cuts come in addition to the 13% workforce reduction announced in November 2022.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Mega Meta
DJIA Futures: +151 (+0.5%) SPX Futures: +23 (+0.6%) NASDAQ Futures: +136 (+1.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are rising as traders digest the latest batch of earnings and new economic data. Let’s get right to it! Meta Rallies On Earnings Beat Meta Platforms (META) shares are jumping 12.9% ahead of the open after beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the social media giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $2.20 vs $2.03 expected Revenue: $28.65 billion vs $27.65 billion expected Daily Active Users: 2.04 billion vs 2.01 billion expected Monthly Active Users: 2.99 billion as expected Average Revenue per User: $9.62 vs $9.30 expected Revenue jumped 3% year over year, the first increase in four quarters. The company forecast Q2 revenue between $29.5 billion and $32 billion vs analysts’ estimates of $29.5 billion. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Meta is “becoming more efficient so we can build better products faster and put ourselves in a stronger position to deliver our long term vision.” The Reality Labs unit – aka the Metaverse unit – brought in $339 million in revenue but logged an operating loss of $3.99 billion. Meta said that operating loss will increase this year. Roku Tops Q1 Estimates Roku (ROKU) shares are slipping in premarket trade despite the company beating Q1 expectations and issuing strong guidance. Here’s how the streaming platform’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Loss per share: $1.38 vs $1.47 expected Revenue: $741 million vs $708.5 million expected Roku’s active accounts jumped 17% year over year to 71.6 million. The number of hours spent watching streaming content on its platforms rose 20% to 25.1 billion. Roku expects $770 million in second-quarter revenue, topping analysts’ expectations for $708.5 million. Southwest Drops After Disappointing Earnings Southwest Airlines (LUV) shares are falling 4.7% ahead of the open after reporting a wider loss than expected in the first quarter. Here’s how the airline’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted loss per share: $0.27 vs $0.23 expected Revenue: $5.71 billion vs $5.73 billion expected Southwest said it took a $325 million revenue hit during the quarter related to its holiday cancellations at the end of 2022. The company expects revenue struggles to continue this quarter. Southwest forecast revenue per available seat mile will be down 8% to 10% year over year in Q2 with capacity up 14% But the airline did forecast a profit for the current quarter. GDP Growth Slows U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected at the beginning of 2023. The Commerce Department’s initial estimate shows GDP rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter. That was slower than economists’ expectations for 2% growth and down from 2.6% in Q4. Inflation remained high during the quarter with the PCE price index rising 4.2% vs 3.7% expected. Consumer spending rose 3.7% and exports jumped 4.8%. But gross private domestic investment tumbled 12.5%. Weekly Jobless Claims Tumble Weekly jobless claims dropped unexpectedly last week. The Labor Department reported 230,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was down by 16,000 and better than expectations for claims to rise to 249,000. Continuing claims fell by 3,000 to 1.86 million in the week ending April 15.
Continue Reading -->Sami Abusaad Gaps Webinar Replay
Watch the webinar replay, then go here to access your limited-time special offer. Get your offer right here.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Big Tech Earnings Bounce
DJIA Futures: +67 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +12 (+0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: +142 (+1.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are up as traders digest the first batch of big tech earnings. Let’s get right to it! Microsoft Rallies On Earnings Beat Microsoft (MSFT) shares are rallying 7.9% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q3 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the tech giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $2.45 vs $2.23 expected Revenue: $52.86 billion vs $51.02 billion expected For fiscal Q4, Microsoft forecast revenue between $54.85 billion and $55.85 billion, beating expectations for $54.84 billion. The CFO said, We will continue to invest in our cloud infrastructure, particularly AI-related spend, as we scale to the growing demand driven by customer transformation. And we expect the resulting revenue to grow over time.” Alphabet Tops Q1 Expectations Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are up 0.3% in premarket trade after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results. Here’s how the company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $1.17 vs $1.07 expected Revenue: $69.79 billion vs $68.9 billion expected It was the first time Alphabet has beat expectations since Q4 2021. YouTube ad revenue was better-than-expected at $6.69 billion while traffic acquisition costs were lower-than-expected at $11.72 billion. Google’s cloud service turned $7.45 billion in revenue during the quarter, slightly lower than expectations, but the segment was profitable for the first time on record. The cloud segment generated $191 million in operating income last quarter. Boeing Rises After Revenue Beat Boeing (BA) shares are up 3% ahead of the open after reporting mixed Q1 results. Here’s how the plane maker’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Loss per share: $1.27 vs $1.07 expected Revenue: $17.92 billion vs $17.57 billion expected Sales were up 28% year-over-year with commercial airplane revenue surging 60%. Boeing said it plans to increase output of its 737 Max planes later this year to 38 a month from 31. It also plans to increase production of the 787 Dreamliner to five planes per month from 3 currently. With demand rising, the company expects to deliver a total of 400 to 450 737 planes this year. The CEO said, “This is an important year for us. As demand surges across our markets, we must focus together on execution and meeting our customer commitments.” Chipotle Smashes Q1 Expectations Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares are up 7.7% in premarket trade after solidly beating Q1 expectations. Here’s how the restaurant chain’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $10.50 vs $8.92 expected Revenue: $2.37 billion vs $2.34 billion expected Higher menu prices and lower avocado prices helped improve Chipotle’s profit margins during the quarter. Same-store sales jumped 10.9% vs 8.6% expected. Chipotle forecast same-store sales growth in the mid-to-high single digits next quarter and for the full year, in line with expectations. The company also reiterated its plans to open between 255 and 285 new restaurants this year. Durable Goods Orders Jump Durable goods orders rose more than expected in March as demand for planes jumped. The Commerce Department reported durable goods orders rose 3.2% monthly vs expectations for a 0.5% gain. That increase was led by transportation orders which surged 9.1%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.3% monthly vs estimates for a 0.2% decline. February’s contraction was revised higher to -1.2% from -1% previously. Mortgage Demand Rebounds Despite High Rates Mortgage demand jumped last week despite rates hitting the highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume rose 3.7% weekly. Purchase applications were up 5% weekly and 28% lower year over year. Refinance applications rose 2% weekly and were down 51% annually. The average 30-year contract rate rose to 6.55% from 6.43%. In Case You Missed It Consumer confidence slipped to a 9-month low in April. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 2.7 points this month to 101.3. That was lower than economists’ estimates for the index to be unchanged at 104. The expectations index fell to 68.1 from 74. One-year inflation expectations improved to 6.2% from 6.3%. Home prices rose for the first time in seven months in February. The S&P Case-Shiller national home price index rose 0.2% monthly and 2% year over year. The largest annual gains were in Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta where prices rose 10.8%, 7.7%, and 6.6% respectively. New home sales surged in March as buyers turn to builders. The Census Bureau reported new sales jumped 9.6% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 units. That was better than expectations for 634,000 and the fourth straight monthly gain in new sales.
Continue Reading -->The 20 Best Stocks of 2023
What are the best-performing stocks in 2023? AI stocks like C3.ai (AI)? Biotechs like Prometheus Biosciences Inc. (RXDX)? You’re about to find out. We fired up our scanner to find the 20 biggest gainers of 2023. We limited the list to stocks with market caps over $1 billion to eliminate the most speculative names And we found: Several takeovers Multiple biotech and pharma names One megacap semiconductor stock Several companies with little Wall Street coverage Our list starts at #20 and works its day down to #1. Dig in! *Data sourced from KoyFin on 4/25/2023 #20: Altair Engineering Inc. (ALTR): +54.0% Altair Engineering Inc. is a software company that provides advanced simulation and optimization solutions, helping businesses improve product design, engineering, and performance, while reducing development costs and time-to-market. The stock is covered by just 10 analysts, according to KoyFin. #19: West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. (WST): +54.1% West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. is a medical device company that develops and manufactures drug delivery systems and packaging solutions, helping to ensure the safety, efficacy, and convenience of pharmaceutical products. Aside from its huge earnings gap in February, driving by a huge beat, WST has been gently gliding higher with very little volatility. Impressive! #18: National Instruments Corporation (NATI): +57.3% National Instruments Corporation is a technology company that designs and manufactures electronic measurement and automation equipment, providing advanced solutions for industries such as aerospace, defense, automotive, and electronics. National Instruments was acquired by Emerson Electric (EMR) for $8.2 billion in April. #17: agilon health inc. (AGL): +57.4% agilon health inc. is a health care services company that partners with primary care physicians and health systems to provide value-based care solutions, focusing on improving health outcomes and reducing costs for patients and payers. This is one of the more interesting charts we’ve seen. agilon has a knac for huge drops… and huger rallies back up. #16: Seagen Inc. (SGEN): +57.9% Seagen Inc. is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes novel cancer therapies, leveraging cutting-edge science and technology to improve patient outcomes and advance cancer treatment. #15: World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (WWE): +59.1% World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (WWE) is a media and entertainment company that produces and distributes live and pre-recorded sports entertainment programming, including professional wrestling events, TV shows, and digital content. On April 3, 2023, Endeavor Group Holdings (EDR) announced it was acquiring WWE for $9.3 billion. #14: UWM Holdings Corporation (UWMC) +66.0% UWM Holdings Corporation is a mortgage lending company that offers a range of loan products and services to homebuyers and homeowners, leveraging technology and innovation to simplify the mortgage process and provide an exceptional customer experience. The housing market is slowing, but UWM stock has shown remarkable momentum in 2023. #13: Samsara Inc. (IOT): +67.3% Samsara Inc. is an Internet of Things (IoT) company that provides fleet management, asset tracking, and industrial monitoring solutions, helping businesses optimize their operations and reduce costs through advanced technology. Samsara has nearly tripled off last year’s lows thanks to some big revenue and earnings beats. #12: e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF): +69.6% e.l.f. Beauty Inc. is a cosmetic and beauty products company that offers affordable, high-quality makeup and skincare products, with a focus on inclusive and diverse beauty standards. e.l.f. put in a string of big earnings beats, setting the stage for big gains this year. #11: Align Technology Inc. (ALGN) +70.4% Align Technology Inc. is a medical device company that designs and manufactures clear aligners and other orthodontic products, providing innovative and effective solutions for patients seeking to improve their oral health and smile. Align had a big earnings beat in February to send it soaring, and it’s right back at those highs in late April. #10: Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (APLS) +71.6% Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes novel therapies for the treatment of complement-mediated diseases, using a proprietary platform that leverages advanced science and technology. #9: Qualtrics International Inc. (XM) +72.9% Qualtrics International Inc. is a software company that provides experience management solutions, helping organizations measure and improve customer, employee, product, and brand experiences through advanced data analytics and insights. Note that on May 13, Qualtrics accepted a $12.5 billion offer to go private. #8: Meta Platforms Inc. (META) +73.9% Meta Platforms Inc. (formerly Facebook) is a social media and technology company that operates a range of digital platforms and products, connecting billions of people around the world and providing a wide range of services and experiences. Meta has benefited from a strong Q4 earnings report and aggressive cost-cutting by CEO Mark Zuckerberg. #7: Lantheus Holdings Inc. (LNTH) +76.3% Lantheus Holdings Inc. is a medical imaging company that develops and manufactures diagnostic imaging agents and medical imaging equipment, with a focus on providing high-quality and safe imaging solutions for patients and health care providers. #6: Prometheus Biosciences Inc. (RXDX) +76.7% Prometheus Biosciences Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes novel therapeutics for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease, leveraging advanced technology platforms and deep scientific expertise. On April 17, 2023, Merck (MRK) announced it was buying Prometheus for $10.8 billion. #5: Oak Street Health Inc. (OSH): +81.1% Oak Street Health Inc. is a primary care provider that offers personalized, preventive health care services to seniors, with a focus on improving health outcomes and reducing health care costs. On February 8, CVS (CVS) announced it was acquiring Oak Street Health (OSH) in a $10.6 billion deal. #4: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): +83.5% NVIDIA Corporation is a technology company that designs and manufactures high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs), providing advanced computing solutions for industries such as gaming, artificial intelligence, and scientific research. The semiconductor sector has been remarkable strong in 2023, so it’s no surprise that Nvidia has surged. #3: DraftKings Inc. (DKNG): +87.9% DraftKings Inc. is a digital sports entertainment and gaming company that operates fantasy sports contests, sports betting, and online casino games, providing users with real-time experiences and unique gaming opportunities. March Madness has been a big growth driver for Draft Kings in
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Earnings Rush
DJIA Futures: -75 (-0.2%) SPX Futures: -19 (-0.4%) NASDAQ Futures: -59 (-0.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are down as traders digest the latest earnings and look ahead to results from big tech names later today. Let’s get right to it! First Republic Tumbles After Earnings First Republic Bank (FRC) shares are dropping 21% ahead of the open despite beating Q1 expectations as deposits plunged. Here’s how the regional bank’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: EPS: $1.23 vs $0.85 expected Revenue: $1.21 billion vs $1.15 billion expected The bank said its deposits tumbled 40% in the quarter to $104.5 billion. That was lower than analysts’ expectations for deposits to be about $145 billion. But First Republic said deposit flows have since stabilized. The bank said, “Deposit activity began to stabilize beginning the week of March 27, 2023, and has remained stable through Friday, April 21, 2023. Total deposits were $102.7 billion as of April 21, 2023, down only 1.7% from March 31, 2023, primarily reflecting seasonal client tax payments that occur each April.” The bank also announced new cost cutting efforts which include cuts to executive compensation, condensing office space, and reducing head count by 20% to 25% in Q2. GM Tops Q1 Expectations, Hikes Guidance General Motors (GM) shares are up 2.7% in premarket trade after beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line and raising its 2023 guidance. Here’s how the automaker’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $2.21 vs $1.73 expected Revenue: $39.99 billion vs $38.96 billion expected GM now expects full-year adjusted EPS of $6.35 to $7.35 vs $6 to $7 previously. The automaker also raised its expectations for adjusted automotive free cash flow to between $5.5 billion and $7.5 billion from $5 billion to $7 billion previously. McDonald’s Shares Rise After Earnings Beat McDonald’s (MCD) shares are up 1% ahead of the open after beating Q1 expectations. Here’s how the fast food giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $2.63 vs $2.33 expected Revenue: $5.9 billion vs $5.59 billion expected McDonald’s reported same-store sales growth of 12.6% across all three of its divisions, fueled by higher menu prices. The company’s U.S. traffic rose for the third consecutive quarter. PepsiCo Hikes Outlook After Earnings Beat PepsiCo (PEP) shares are up 1.7% in premarket trade after beating Q1 expectations and raising its full-year outlook. Here’s how the beverage giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.50 vs $1.39 expected Revenue: $17.85 billion vs $17.22 billion expected Net sales rose 10.2% year over year while organic revenue jumped 14.3%. Sales volumes in PepsiCo’s beverage business rose 1% and declined 3% in its food segment. Overall volumes were down 2% while prices were up 16%. PepsiCo now expects full-year 2023 organic revenue growth of 8% vs 6% previously. 3M Beats Q1 Estimates, Announces Layoffs 3M (MMM) shares are up 1.3% ahead of the open after beating Q1 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the industrial giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.92 vs $1.60 expected Revenue: $7.7 billion vs $7.5 billion expected 3M maintained its full-year outlook for sales to drop 3% year over year and EPS between $8.50 and $9. The CEO said, “we continued our relentless focus on serving customers and aggressively managed costs” during Q1. As part of its cost cutting efforts, 3M announced plans to cut 6,000 more jobs globally in addition to the 2,500 announced in January. UPS Misses Q1 Expectations UPS (UPS) shares are down 4.9% in premarket trade after missing Q1 expectations. Here’s how the shipping giant’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $2.20 vs $2.21 expected Revenue: $22.93 billion vs $23.01 billion expected The CEO said, “In the first quarter, deceleration in U.S. retail sales resulted in lower volume than we anticipated, and we faced ongoing demand weakness in Asia. Given current macro conditions, we expect volume to remain under pressure. We will remain focused on driving productivity.” UPS now expects 2023 sales of $97 billion, down from its previous forecast of $97 billion to $99.2 billion. Operating profit margin is expected to be 12,8% vs the previous outlook for 12.8% to 13.6%. JetBlue Forecasts Profit After Q1 Earnings Beat JetBlue (JBLU) shares are up 2.2% ahead of the open after reporting a smaller Q1 loss than expected and forecasting a profit in Q2. Here’s how the airline’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted loss per share: $0.34 vs $0.38 expected Revenue: $2.33 billion vs $2.32 billion expected Expenses surged more than 22% year over year to $2.57 billion. JetBlue’s fuel bill jumped 34% from a year ago. The airline expects adjusted EPS of $0.35 to $0.45 in Q2 with revenue growth of 4.5% to 8.5%, topping analysts’ expectations. The CEO said, “For the second quarter, we expect strong revenue growth to continue as demand remains robust and as we see continued momentum from our commercial initiatives. We are forecasting a solidly profitable quarter, and we remain confident in our full-year earnings outlook.”
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We have small red arrows around the world as we head into the busiest week of earnings. The SPX was in the same spot 2 years ago and at the start of 2023. The year of the range that is squeezing out the excess of 2020. The Recession that’s been predicted for 9 months still isn’t here. We’ll see how we react to earnings this week. We can’t get too bearish if 4090 holds. SPY held the $410 area a few times. This range feels vulnerable at times but is still intact. We should get some type of move because it’s a big earnings week. Pivot resistance is $412.68. QQQ still has a big cup & handle type look. We need some good earnings to resolve it. A strong move this week above $317.40 then $321 sets it in motion. A move and close below $314 and all of a sudden it fails. Have plans for both scenarios. Now let’s look at some tech names, including some of this week’s big earnings reports: GOOGL reports Tuesday. Expectations are low. $109 is a big pivot area. If you want to take a call spread, I’d perhaps look at a $107/$112.50 or $110/$115. The risk-reward is decent if you think it reacts well. MSFT also reports Tuesday and has high expectations. $292-$294 is a big area to watch. It needs to get and stay above that to react well post-earnings. A $295/$305 call spread may work. META held the 21 day Friday with a low of $209.58 to trade against. It reports Wednesday after the close. Expectations here are pretty high. We’ll see if there’s a play Wednesday. I’d trim today and see if it holds $213.41. AMZN ignited last Wednesday and started to act better. It hit $108.15 We’ll see how it reacts into earnings Thursday. AAPL is trying to consolidate higher. GS said results should be better than feared but earnings aren’t till next week. See if $164.49 can act as upper support. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-04-24 at 10.10.15 AM
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