Tag Archives for " technical analysis "
Sami Abusaad: Why You Need to Know the Only 4 Stages of Market Movement
If you want to be an expert swing trader, then you have to understand the Foundation of stock movement, broken down into 4 clear stages: Ambivalence Greed Indecision Fear In our latest swing trading tutorial (scroll down to see it), T3 Live’s Director of Education Sami Abusaad breaks down each of these 4 stages so you can understand The Foundation — or the entire life cycle — of price movement. Most traders are not even aware these stages exist. But once you understand how they work, you’ll start viewing the market action through a clear new prism. You’ll see how greed and fear show their hands through price and trend action. So watch this video today and learn: Which market stage offer the highest reward relative to risk How to pick the best stocks for swing trading The single most important trading picture you may ever see Why Sami doesn’t try to buy at the exact bottom and sell at the exact top The right time to start putting on buy setups What to do when a stock goes climactic to the upside What to do when a stock goes climactic to the downside The danger of the “Fear of Missing Out” Why you can’t wait to be 100% sure to get in The type of behavior that leads to climactic tops
Continue Reading -->How to Define an Uptrend on a Stock Chart
In technical analysis, one of the biggest mistakes you can make is to not have clear criteria for the patterns you’re looking at. What do we mean by that? Quite often, you’ll hear traders use terms like head & shoulders and support and resistance. But you never hear But you never hear about the criteria they use to actually define these terms. In our T3 Technical Strategies and Trading the Pristine Method Programs, we pride ourselves on giving traders, particularly beginners, clearly defined criteria for the patterns we use. Let’s start with one of the most important — the good old uptrend. What is an uptrend? A trendline that points up… right? Well yes, but that’s not enough. Why? Because without clear criteria to define our uptrend, we’ll never know when the trend breaks! Here are our 5 criteria for an uptrend on a daily chart: 1) Higher Highs: stock is making new highs (see letters on chart below) 2) Higher Lows: stock is not breaking below prior lows (see numbers on chart below) 3) Rising 20 Day Moving Average: indicates an improved short-term trend 4) A Rising 40 Day Moving Average: indicates an improved intermediate-term trend 5) Even Space Between the 20 and 40 DMA (a.k.a. railroad tracks) Here’s a chart showing what an uptrend looks like: Next Steps We recommend that you pick out 10 stocks, and see how each of them fits our uptrend criteria. By completing this exercise, you’ll learn to quickly spot the REAL uptrends.
Continue Reading -->Resistance and Support Ahead of Trump’s Big Speech
The Russell 2000 is popping 0.6% today while the major averages are only barely green. On Friday, it nearly tested that descending trendline from which the recent little rally erupted. Has resistance become support? I assume if the Russell can hold this 1380-1400 range, I assume the bears don’t stand much chance of finally breaking the bull. Looking ahead, the next major potential catalyst is President Trump’s address of Congress tomorrow. The big question is how much will he detail will he offer? Trump won the election on sweeping generalities, but there’s a lot of demand on him to get down to brass tacks. Since Trump is a typical CEO (long on broad visions, short on the details that get left to underlings), expectations are extraordinarily low in this regard. However, I would not be so quick to count him out completely. From about August 2016 until the election in November 2017, Trump cut through the competition like a hot chainsaw through butter. He was the hammer for a while… and now he’s the nail. For the past month or so, he’s been hammered relentlessly and is in need of a win. The bar is low. And perhaps by offering even minimal ‘real’ information on tax reform, infrastructure spending, and health care, markets may respond very favorably. Why? Because they’re not expecting much. It’s the equivalent of a company heading into earnings after getting a bunch of downgrades and estimate cuts — it doesn’t take much positive news to start a countertrend rally. There’s also the possibility that Trump offers significant details to confound his critics. And if indeed Trump does deliver, the Russell may really rip.
Continue Reading -->Russell 2000 Hits Record Highs, May Be Ready for a Breakout
The Russell 2000 just made a new all-time high, matching last week’s records in the SPX, Dow, and Nasdaq. In doing so, it is above this little 1385-1390 range at which it failed 3 times in a row: We can also view those 3 failures as top points of a descending trendline: I’d keep an eye on it to see if it can keep moving with authority above 1400. Round numbers are meaningless for judging direction but 1400 is just enough above the recent range to judge this extension Yellen’s testimony may be key tomorrow. If she’s hawkish, that could help the Russell bust a power move higher since a strong dollar is generally better for small caps than large caps.
Continue Reading -->The Point of Gold Recognition?
A few days ago we offered that GDXJ/GLD were at inflection points and that the next leg up to 1425/1450 in gold may be here. Yesterday may have been the first step. The behavior on the first pullback will be key to observe with subsequent follow through. If GDXJ offsets $49-50, which from a bearish perspective is a right shoulder of an H&S top, that should confirm the idea of a new leg up because fast moves come from failed patterns. A failed Head & Shoulders top implies new highs in GDXJ. Moreover, new swing highs in gold will be a point of recognition for those bearish of gold who believe this years rally was a bear market rally. New highs could create a vacuum as the perception that a bull market in gold is underway takes hold. Click here to learn more about Jeff Cooper’s Daily Market Report.
Continue Reading -->Why I’m Still Cautious About This Market
Yesterday’s big rally came as quite a surprise to just about everyone I talked to. It’s pretty funny how the market likes to confuse as many traders as it can. Yesterday we still had plenty of warning signs to keep us from getting back in. 1) The market couldn’t regain the 50 day moving average and stalled out just below. 2) If the bulls wanted to negate that nasty down day Friday, they needed to get into Friday’s gap, which they couldn’t. 3) Small caps remained much weaker on their bounce attempt, showing beta wasn’t as good of a place to be. All this being said, I am still waiting for SPY to get into the $211-ish range. It got very close on Friday, and I am still holding out for that.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPY, BABA, GDX
SPY has been choppy but the range is intact. Support is $217.35, then $216.25. Resistance is $218.67, then $219.60ish. Take things slow and don’t overtrade. BABA has digested a nice targeted earnings move for a few weeks. Holding $95.45 would help it get above $96.68 on the way to $99+. GDX already broke the 8/21 day and didn’t respect the 50 that was already lost. Use $25.66 as your pivot. This can see $23-24 on a strong jobs report. Positions disclosure: Scott Redler is long BABA, BABA calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPY, BABA
SPX futures are up 1 point as we lost some momentum last week. SPY gave us a new point of reference at $216.25. A close below there opens the door to $215ish. $218.20ish is resistance. A pop and close above there relieves some pressure. We got bullish on BABA into earnings, playing the stock and buying calls. The earnings gap held $93, which we can trade against. For it to get momentum back, it needs to get and close above $95.50, then $99. P.S. Don’t be afraid of forex… Click here to get a FREE introduction to this exciting market… Positions Disclosure: Scott Redler is long BABA, short SPY
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPY & GDX
Get a Quant Edge in Today’s Markets Tomorrow after the close, Rob Smith is hosting a FREE webinar on his unique Quant Edge Trading Strategy. Read all about it SPX futures are up 1-2 handles in a very choppy lethargic trend to the upside. I would expect more of the same until Friday. We’ll see if we can break above $219.60ish, if all those warnings about a market correction since MAY come to light: Stay tuned. GDX has been the place to be in 2016 with lots of buyable pivots and trends. Recently, it lost momentum when it broke $30.40. A break and close below the 50 day could trigger selling in this crowded trade. P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Rob Smith’s FREE webinar.
Continue Reading -->The Market Is Setting Up a Different Move
Quantitative Analysis is the future of trading. Rob Smith will show you why. Click here for more info. This is the first time we have seen follow-through in the markets in a while. That should be telling and it looks as though we are finally setting up for a pullback. We have entered the August 5 gap and now look set to fill it and some more. A good check back in a healthy market would be to pull back to around the 50 day moving average or around 213 in SPY. Its only a couple of percentage points below here, but picking up that kind of alpha is what I like to do. I am selling down my longs here and looking to buy back lower.
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