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The End of the Market As We Know It?
We’re about to enter week 3 of war with Iran. Crude oil hit shocking highs this week, while stocks hang in, right on the edge of failure. So it’s time for the 5 things you need to know. Play this week’s theme song as you read: 1. We Are on the Verge of Disaster. But There’s a Catch. The market has been a tight, frustrating mess with zero follow-through for months. And SPY, down just 2.7% year-to-date, looks like it might be on the verge of a breakdown. Is the 200-day moving average at $656 the next stop before a bigger collapse? It looks like it, but there’s a catch. And of course, that catch is between now and Monday morning, we will get 48 hours of headlines. Good luck figuring out what they’ll be. Axios reported this morning that President Trump told the G7 that Iran “is about to surrender.” The problem is the President has a long history of hyperbole (often a big asset), and Iran shows no signs of backing down. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is sending more US Marines and warships to the Middle East. The market wants resolution, ASAP. 2. Oil Traders Are Bracing for More Big Moves We took a look at options prices on crude oil futures. And those prices are high. Implied volatility on options expiring next Friday is at 120%. The $97 straddle for next Friday is trading around $13.58 right now. That’s an implied move of about 14% in a single week. That would seem wild at any other time. But anything can happen in the Strait of Hormuz, plus the rest of the global oil infrastructure. 3. The Mood Is Going Sour The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 31.9% of investors are bullish. This is the 6th straight weekly decline, and the lowest level since November 12. It’s not an extreme reading, but it’s below the long-term 37.5% average. And bearish sentiment jumped to 46.4%, the highest level since November 12. The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio reached 0.80 Wednesday, the highest since February 17. This shows a moderate amount of fear. It’s good to see more caution coming into the market, because by definition, it means there is a lack of froth. However, these are not extreme measures so we can’t use them as an excuse to load the boat with equities. 4. Private Credit Is Coming Into Focus Many market observers believe the private credit market is the next big market boogeyman. Private credit grew fast after the financial crisis when traditional banks bulled back on lending to smaller companies. But now defaults are rising thanks to lax underwriting standards, and there’s worry of a crisis brewing. This has hurt stocks like Blue Owl (OWL), Ares Management (ARES), and even Deutsche Bank (DB), which just disclosed $30 billion in exposure to private credit loans. And we noticed something funny this week. Google searches for “what is private credit?” have exploded: This story is going mainstream. 5. SanDisk Is Amazing I got stopped out of my SanDisk (SNDK) long last Friday. So of course it rallied back $100 in under a week. In the middle of a war. The stock is now up 176% this year, making it the #1 name in the S&P 500 index. Texas Pacific Land (TPL), the #2 stock, is up “only” 85%. And SanDisk has two fresh catalysts next week: Micron’s (MU) earnings report, and Nvidia’s (NVDA) big GTC conference. Both should point to strong demand for everything related to AI infrastructure, which of course includes flash memory storage. By the way, JR Romero is sticking to his $1,000 target price:
Continue Reading -->Did Crude Oil Just Peak?
Traders are edge amid the US and Israel launching a major attack on Iran. So let’s look at the 5 things you need to know right now. 1. Crude Oil Went Parabolic. Did It Peak? The military conflict in Iran sent crude oil up over 30% this week. And the RSI on crude oil futures hovered around 87 Friday morning. In recent years, crude oil has tended to fade after hitting RSI levels in the 85+ range. So should we short crude oil? It’s a tough question. Because we could walk into any kind of news come Monday morning. So shorting oil feels like a binary bet on things like: The status of the Strait of Hormuz Whether Iran is open to a deal What President Trump says on Truth Social at 3 in the morning Interestingly, the red hot oil service sector sold down hard this week, which feels like a massive “sell the news.” Oil service stocks had been ripping because higher oil prices mean more oil projects become economically feasible. (plus the favorable regulatory backdrop) But now it looks like an awful lot of news was priced in. And believe it or not, OIH was as high as $440 early Monday morning. Now it’s around $375, 14% off that high. 2. Lousy Jobs Report = FOMC Rate Cuts? On Friday morning, we got the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, and it was a mess, even taking into account temporary factors impacting the numbers. But is the FOMC needle moving? Yes. A little bit. Markets are now pricing in a 50.4% chance of a rate cut by June, up from 33% yesterday. So the market sees: 42.3% chance of 25 bps in cuts 7.8% chance of 50 bps in cuts 0.3% chance of 75 bps in cuts Of course, the rising price of oil is inflationary. And next week, we have multiple key US economic data reports including CPI, Existing Home Sales, ADP Employment Change, GDP, and Core Price Index. So we should get more insights into the state of the US economy. 3. Palantir Perked Up Most tech stocks had a rough week. Palantir (PLTR) was an exception thanks to its close ties with the US and Israeli military: Palantir’s AI systems are reportedly used for applications like target identification. The military-industrial complex is rapidly becoming the military-industrial-data complex and Palantir (along with companies like Anthropic) is at the heart of it. The Times reports that 20 soldiers using Palantir AI are accomplishing a workload that required a team of 2,000 during the US invasion of Iraq. Traders often ask the most obvious question about Palantir: why is this stock trading at 50 times sales? The answer is simple. The US military can’t (or won’t?) live without Palantir’s technology. And the US military wants to keep that tech to itself. 4. Traders Are in a Funk Investors and traders are still in a funk. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.1% of investors are bullish. This is the third straight week of below-average bullishness. And it’s well off the 49.5% high set on January 14. Meanwhile, the CBOE equity-put call ratio is 0.6o, which is in the range of neutral. So traders are far from euphoric. This is a positive because it implies few traders are all-in bullish. In fact, it seems like everyone’s waiting for resolution on Iran before placing their chips down. And odds are, if equity markets keep weakening, bullish sentiment should drop below 30% next week. 5. An Ugly Stock Is Looking Beautiful The single worst stock in the S&P 500 this year is tech research & advisory company Gartner (IT). According to conventional wisdom, Gartner’s business looks ripe to be eaten by AI. On February 3, the stock dropped 20% after the company reported weak guidance. But on March 5, Sami Abusaad added the stock to his Number Ones swing trading newsletter at $167.63. And it’s starting to fill that big ugly earnings gap: Wall Street’s indifferent on the stock, with 4 buys, 9 holds, and 2 sell ratings. But the stock looks like it’s under accumulation. Will be interesting to see where it is in a month.
Continue Reading -->Nvidia vs. Sandisk vs. Utilities?
What a week! Nvidia (NVDA) flopped after earnings, OpenAI picked up $110 billion in fresh funding, and PPI came in hot. So let’s look at the 5 things you need to know right now. 1. Nvidia = Buy on Valuation? Nvidia (NVDA) delivered another solid across-the-board beat and strong guidance on Wednesday. And for the third straight quarter, it sold off the next day. I’m long, so of course I’m aggravated. So what’s the problem? Everyone’s wondering how long the AI capex spending boom can last. Because companies like Oracle (ORCL) and Meta (META) are burning downright absurd levels of cash flow. However, there may be hope for the bulls. Nvidia’s valuation has compressed to 22 times forward earnings. That’s right around where the stock bottomed in November 2023 and April 2025. Meanwhile, Nvidia is expected to grow earnings by 73% this year. If this was 1985, Peter Lynch would be loading up for the Magellan fund. But while tech leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft (MSFT) sag, you know what’s not struggling. 2. The Electric Mystery Machine Are In Secret Bull Market Mode SPY is down in 2026, but the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) just keeps grinding up: I highlighted this secret bull market on February 13. Why are utilities booming? Rates are falling. And traders could be rotating into utilities in fear of an economic mess. Plus, AI is driving increased electricity demand. And Anthropic said it will fit the bill for infrastructure upgrades and consumers’ higher electric bills. Why didn’t you see this on financial TV? They’re talking about Nvidia. 3. SanDisk May Be Setting Up Beautifully I’m long SanDisk (SNDK). I even declared myself the Captain of Team SanDisk. Not that I’m buying it here. It’s the #1 stock in the S&P 500 this year, and right now it’s hugging the 20 day moving average: Could it be basing for a breakout? We talked about it on this week’s live stream: 4. Cybersecurity Is Less Awful Than Regular Old Software We all know software has been a mess, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) down 23% year-to-date. But cybersecurity is holding in less bad. The Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) is “only” down 10% YTD. And security leader CrowdStrike (CRWD) reports on Tuesday. This is a pivotal report. The stock recently came under pressure when Anthropic launched Claude Code Security. If CrowdStrike says AI is not a problem for them (or an opportunity), it could add some upside fuel. Interestingly, CrowdStrike describes itself as “The Agentic Security Platform. Unified and built to secure the AI revolution.” 5. The Mood Is Still Sour It’s hard to argue that investors and traders are too optimistic. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 33.2% of investors are bullish. This is below the 37.5% long-term average. And it’s well below the 49.5% reading notched on January 14. Also: the CBOE equity put-call ratio averaged 0.61 this week, which is in the neighborhood of neutral. This is all good news. Because extremes in bullish sentiment can signal complacency and mark tops. And we are nowhere close to extreme bullish sentiment. Which makes sense given how tricky this market is. Back on February 12, we asked our Twitter following if 2026 has been harder than 2025. 80% said yes. That says a lot about how frustrating this market’s endless grind is.
Continue Reading -->You Are Not Alone in the Twilight Zone
What a week! The Supreme Court smacked down President Trump’s tariffs, Q4 GDP flopped, and Amazon (AMZN) surpassed Walmart (WMT) as the world’s #1 company by sales. Our song of the week is Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone.” Blast it while you read this report: 1. If You’re Frustrated, You’re Not Alone Last week, we asked our community if the market felt easier or harder than usual in 2026. 67.7% said harder. So if you’re frustrated by this market, you’re not lone. Because while the major averages are stubbornly range-bound, individual stock performance is all over the place. The S&P 500 is up about 1% year-to-date, and off the highs by about 1%. But drilling below the surface tells a much more interesting story: The average stock has moved 14.4% year-to-date 342 stocks are up, with an average gain of +15.4% 161 stocks are down, with an average loss of -12.4% This implies traders and investors are having trouble with timing. Because 69% of stocks are up and the winners are up more than the losers are down. We can even see this from a sector perspective. If you look at our sector ETF tracker, you see that most ETFs are up: There has been a lot of gains in the market this year. It’s just been touch to catch them because it feels like there’s no follow-through. And if you’re stressed and in need of a fresh start in your trading, check out the Pristine Mentorship with Sami Abusaad and James Rich Young. 2. This Week Is HUGE for Tech Yes, we all know that Nvidia (NVDA) earnings hit on Wednesday. But we’re also getting reports from Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), Intuit (INTU), Autodesk (ADSK), and Dell (DELL)? That means we get insights on software (important given the IGV debacle), AI, and my favorite topics – memory and storage. I own Nvidia stock, but I’m just as interested in Dell. Because Dell spend lots of dough on hard drives and SSDs. So what they say will impact the 3 amigos of storats: SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate (STX). They are the #1, #5, and #9 best stocks in the S&P 500 this year, posting absurd gains: BTW, I own SanDisk and plan on holding it into the Dell report because I agree with JR Romero’s take: 3. The Mood Has Soured There’s still little evidence that investors and traders are overly optimistic, which tracks with how challenging this environment has been. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 34.5% of investors are bullish. This is below the 37.5% long-term average. And it’s well below the 49.5% reading notched on January 14. Also: the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.64, which reads pretty much neutral. This is all good news. Because extremes in bullish sentiment can signal complacency and mark tops. Just remember that timing the market with sentiment data is tricky, if not impossible. 4. OIH Might Hit a Sell the News Energy has been a dominant force in 2026, thanks to geopolitical worries. And this week, President Trump gave Iran a 10-day ultimate to make nuclear deal, or “bad things happen.” The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up 36% year-to-date after the “Gap of the Year” on January 5 after the US Army Delta Force plucked Nicolás Maduro out of Venezuela. OIH has crushed every other sector ETF, including the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which is up “only” 22.5%. And it could be getting overbought. So if Trump and Iran make nice, there could be a sell-the-news reaction. I own OIH and XLE and have zero plans to sell. I’m in for life. 5. Software Still Stinks Software looks like it was bottoming. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) showed about 8,000 signs it was oversold, with record volume after a huge decline. And it bounced. For three days. I thought I was smart by picking up the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG). Because that’s the “safer” side of the software arena. Nope. I’m losing money thanks to Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Akamai (AKAM), the #1 and #2 components in BUG, both whiffing on earnings this week. Why haven’t I sold yet? I wish I knew.
Continue Reading -->The Electric Sector That’s Skyrocketing Without You
What a week! We had a big jobs report, a light CPI number, and momentum stocks falling into quicksand. This song seems to fit: So let’s get into this week’s big stories! 1. Utilities Got Hot Consumer Staples was the surprise sexy sector last week. Utilities took the crown this week. Look at that big fat green bar on the weekly chart for the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU): Plus, on Thursday, we noticed a bizarre stat in the options market. As of about 2:30 pm, 231,546 XLU calls had traded. And just 6,129 puts traded. So we had a put-call ratio of 0.026. 38 calls for every 1 put. Crazy. So it looks like some folks were sniffing out a light CPI report. Because a light CPI (which we did get) could mean lower rates which is good for utilities. But there was another big utilities story that didn’t get much attention this week. We all know that AI is driving higher demand for electricity. But did you know that AI giant Anthropic just said it will pay the costs of upgrading electric grids to accommodate AI data centers? That looks like a surprise source of capex funding for utilities. Sounds bullish to me. And on Friday, those call buyers are smiling with XLU on the upswing. FYI – I’m long and strong XLU and VST so my money is where my mouth is. Now let’s talk about the other big sector story this week: 2. The Semis Won’t Stop The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) had impressed this week thanks to surges in leaders like: Applied Materials (AMAT) Lam Research (LRCX) KLA (KLAC) NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) We saw big earnings from AMAT and Japanese memory maker Kioxia, plus Taiwan Semi (TSM) reported impressive January sales. So even with Kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) stuck in the mud (I do own it), the AI story still has SMH up 13% YTD: I know you’re asking “but isn’t SanDisk (SNDK) really the 800-pound semiconductor gorilla right now?” Well it’s still the #1 stock in the S&P 50p this year. But it’s actually not in the SMH ETF. That said, you might want to hear what JR Romero said about the stock this week: FYI: Get JR’s training here. 3. Software Is Back Under Pressure Traders are still worried about AI nuking software in the wake of Anthropic releasing Claude Cowork. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) just hit its highest monthly volume ever. Less than halfway through the month! IGV had a solid bounce attempt into Tuesday but it crapped out fast as leaders like Microsoft (MSFT) and Palantir (PLTR) slumped. We’re even seeing names like ServiceNow (NOW) and Salesforce (CRM) trade at record low valuations. Salesforce is now trading at just 15X forward earnings: This is a tricky situation because it looks like traders are looking for any excuse to sell software stocks. Even though replacing real software (even crappy stuff) with home-grown AI alternatives is far from easy. Every person I know works with software they hate. But even if they could vibe code a replacement, they wouldn’t. Because no one wants to be responsible for the inevitable glitches. 4. There Is Not Much Fear Out There Countless momentum stocks have been rocked, and things feel shaky. But there’s not much fear out there. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.5% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months: This is in-line with the long-term 37.5% average. Meanwhile, options-related sentiment indicators like the CBOE Equity Put-Call Ratio and ISE Sentiment Index remain subdued. I like these indicators because trading options with actual dollars says more about sentiment than a survey. And neither shows an explosion in put option demand, which would be a real sign of fear. 5. It’s Been a Bad Year for Small Cap Short Squeezes Since small caps are outperforming this year, we wanted to see if short squeezes were a favor. So we used KoyFin to screen for US stocks between $500 million and $5 billion in market cap, with short interest of 15% or higher. We came up with 138 stocks, of which: 62 are up this year 76 are down The average return is -1.7% So on the whole, it hasn’t been a great year for small cap short squeezes. That said, here are the top 5: Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR): +89.5% Cable One Inc. (CABO): +37.5% Monro Inc. (MNRO): +25.0% Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP): +22.2% Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST): +21.6% P.S. Don’t forget the market is closed Monday for Presidents’ Day! Here’s next week’s calendar:
Continue Reading -->AI vs. Software: Who Wins?
What a week. We got Dow 50,000, Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) cranking up their capex, a crypto collapse, and metals trading like meme stocks. So let’s talk about the 5 biggest things you need to know right now: 1. Software Got Nuked By AI Software stocks were the talk of the town this week. In a bad, bad way. Anthropic launched its Claude CoWork app and the world seemed to scream “AI is going to eat software.” The way software was eating the world back in 2011, according to Marc Andreessen. And people started creating doomsday scenarios for AI replacing software applications wholesale. Traders developed a newfound obsession with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), which had its highest-volume week ever. Below the surface, it looks even worse. The average individual stock in the IGV ETF is -44% below its 52-week high, according to KoyFin data. Here are some examples: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): -29% Salesforce Inc. (CRM): -44% WDAY Workday Inc. (WDAY): -44% ServiceNow Inc. (NOW): -53% Unity Software Inc. (U): -54% Oracle Corporation (ORCL): -60% Atlassian Corporation (TEAM): -71% And at the bottom of the barrel is Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (BMNR) at 88% from its highs. (more on this below) Here’s another fun fact: just three of the 100+ stocks in IGV have made a 52-week high in 2026. They are Zoom (ZM), A10 Networks (ATEN), and Electronic Arts (EA). And EA in only that category because it’s being taken over. Is the bottom in for software? My personal guess is maybe. IGV hit an RSI of 14.84 on Thursday. Hard to go lower than that: I bought the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) Thursday because it’s also oversold, and security may be more AI-proof long-term. Ironically, software companies may benefit most from AI. Because AI coding tools like Claude may help developers do more work faster. So in this war… both AI and software may win! 2. Why Hardware Is Winning Now We plotted a simple chart comparing IGV to the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the SPDR® Tech Sector ETF (XLK): This lets us compare the software to the semiconductor sector (a good proxy for hardware) and tech overall. So over the past year, SMH is up 60.8% while IGV fell 22.5%. That’s a differential of 83.3%! You’re asking why, right? To me the answer is simple: shortages are sexy. And short-term gyrations aside, the hottest semiconductor names like Micron (MU), Broadcom (AVGO), Lam Research (LRCX), and Nvidia (NVDA) have been supply constrained. The “we can’t make enough stuff to meet demand” message is catnip for traders. That’s why SanDisk (SNDK) is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 this year. (note: SNDK is not in the SMH ETF) This excitement has pushed tremendous investment dollars to the semiconductor side. Software’s just not been as compelling from a story perspective. 3. Apple Took Over Mag 7, No AI Required I’ve argued that Apple Is Playing the Smartest AI Game of All. Unlike Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL), Apple is not blasting hundreds of billions of dollars into new capex spending on AI hardware. Apple’s also not playing financial engineering games with the likes of OpenAI and CoreWeave (CRWV). Apple is simply partnering with Google to enhance Siri with AI. Simple, safe, efficient. Especially since iPhone demand is rampant as it is. And as of Friday morning, Apple was the #1 stock in the Mag 7 this year, by a hair: 4. Consumer Staples Went Parabolic Of all the major index ETFs, the one showing the most power as of late is the Consumer Staples SPDR ETF (XLP). XLP is up 13% YTD vs. a 1% gain for SPY. Its RSI is at 82, which is a record high for XLP (or close to it – my data set isn’t perfect). That’s also the highest RSI of any major ETF. Because stocks like Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST), and earnings winner Pepsi (PEP) have been marching on up. Now, there’s an argument to be made that traders are looking for boring stocks after the wild action in AI, the metals, and cryptocurrencies. But if we look back at the past 10 years, XLP has underperformed SPY by an enormous margin: So there’s an element of catch-up here. Strength in the staples is one reason the Dow Jones Industrial Average just hit 50,000 today. 5. Knives Out for Tom Lee Now, I’m not sure if the crypto market just bottomed. But the hate for Market Strategist and Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) Chair Tom Lee has been deafening. It feels worse than when everyone threw Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood under the bus in 2022. Tom’s taken a lot of flack for his crazy bullish forecasts on Bitcoin and Ethereum. But I now wonder if Bitmine bottomed at the point of maximum hate: Are you buying? I’m still afraid…
Continue Reading -->Meet the 4 Horsemen of the AI-pocalypse
What a week! President Trump named a new FOMC chair, the SPX hit 7000, and precious metals turned into meme stocks. So it’s time for the 5 things you need to know right now: 1. SanDisk Leads the 4 Horsemen of the AI-pocalypse Last week, I declared SanDisk (SNDK) “the most dangerous stock in the world… to longs and shorts.” Because it had a parabolic stock price, high short interest, and crazy earnings momentum. The longs won this week when the company delivered blockbuster earnings and guidance, keeping the stock at the top of the S&P 500 leaderboard. Look at the top 4 names year-to-date: SanDisk (SNDK): +172% Seagate (STX) +63% Western Digital (WDC): +60% Micron (MU): +48% *as of Friday morning So the AI trade is dominated by memory and storage stocks. And yes, you know those good old-fashioned spinning hard disk drives? AI data centers can’t get enough of those. The AI game is about SHORTAGES. The bigger the shortage, the bigger the earnings momentum. And right now, 4 horsemen have the best supply-demand dynamics. Because you can’t run data centers without memory or storage. As an illustration, SanDisk guided for Q3 EPS of $12 to $14. That’s triple the $4.33 consensus. And heck, it’s more than Q3 and Q4 earnings estimates COMBINED. But let’s talk about an unlikely AI hero… 2. Apple Is Playing the Smartest AI Game of All Apple’s (AAPL) been criticized for being slow to integrate AI into the iPhone. Which would have everyone switching to Android, right? Which was gonna kill the company, right? WRONG. On Thursday after the close, Apple smashed earnings expectations and reported “staggering” iPhone demand. Now, this chart doesn’t look great: But Apple’s now beaten earnings estimates for 12 straight quarters. The business is 100% intact. As I’ve pointed out 859 times, you can put any AI app on your iPhone. Which gives it all the AI capabilities we need. And the company’s teaming up with Google Gemini to reboot Siri. And if you still believe a lack of AI is a problem for Apple, tell your kids “you’re switching from iPhone to Android because you need better AI.” Their reaction will tell you everything. And consider this. Companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are hitching their fortunes to the very unprofitable ChatGPT maker OpenAI. OpenAI is burning through billions of dollars and facing intense competition from Alphabet (GOOGL). OpenAI is moving into ads even though Sam Altman once called them a last resort. Because they need money. So when the inevitable AI crash happens, Apple will be watching from the sidelines counting those iPhone bucks, not a care in the world. Full disclosure: Apple is my biggest stock position and I’m 100% biased. 3. Gold Went Full SMCI Gold futures hit a ridiculous RSI of 96.00 on Wednesday. It was like the heyday of Super Micro (SMCI) back in early 2024. And that was right before gold and other precious metals collapsed: By the way, David Prince of our Inner Circle VTF® is going to break down his amazing gold short on next week’s webinar. Sign up for it here. As a general rule, it’s hard for anything to sustain an RSI in the 90s, especially a major ETF. Now we’ll see if dip buyers come in with Gold 11% off the highs, and Silver down 24%. 4. Earnings Season Is Going Great Earnings season started pretty stinky with the banks and a whiff from Netflix (NFLX), to the point where the numbers overall were below expectations. That turned around big time this week with beats from a host of giants: SanDisk (SNDK) Apple (AAPL) Meta (META) ASML (ASML) Boeing (BA) IBM (IBM) GE Vernova (GEV) Lam Research (LRCX) Tesla (TSLA) Caterpillar (CAT) Visa (V) Mastercard (MA) Exxon (XOM) Chevron (CVX) American Express (AXP) Regeneron (REGN) So yes, there’s a lot of things in the world to worry about. But corporate earnings are not one of them. 5. Energy Is the Stealth Hero of 2026 Yes, everyone’s still obsessed with the precious metals and hot AI names. But have you noticed the energy stock boom? SPY is up 1.4% year-to-date. Meanwhile, the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up 21.3% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is up 13.1%. Iran is a concern, and we’re seeing headlines that OPEC will keep its oil production pause. Yet it feels like nobody’s talking about the steady rise in crude oil: But we’ll give credit to the T3 Live audience. In our year-end survey, energy was the second favorite sector, behind tech.
Continue Reading -->The Most Dangerous Trade of 2026
We’re coming off another fun week with skyrocketing metals prices, President Trump Tacoing on Greenland, and earnings season heating off. So it’s time for the 5 charts you need to see right now: 1. Sandisk Is the Most Dangerous Stock in the World Sandisk (SNDK) is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 in 2026. And it’s the most dangerous stock in the world… to longs and shorts. Thanks to the AI boom, there’s not enough memory and storage to go around. That’s been a boon for Sandisk, along with its peers Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WDC). But what’s really interesting about Sandisk is that it’s heavily shorted. According to KoyFin data, 6% of the float is sold short: Meanwhile, earnings estimates have skyrocketed since the company came public again last year: So we have 6% of the float short, while earnings estimates are going through the roof because of a massive supply-demand imbalance. It looks like the shorts are trying to predict a cyclical top into earnings on Thursday, January 29. And the optimists think things can only get better. This is quite tricky. One one hand, it might have already gone too far, too fast. On the other hand, SanDisk could see a mountain of good news next week. Aside from its own earnings report Thursday, ee get earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Lam Research (LRCX) on Wednesday. All are likely to give bullish outlooks on the AI cycle. And Lam Research is a Sandisk supplier. If you’re playing it… good luck. 2. The Silver Squeeze Is Still Raging 2026 is still the year of heavy metal. Silver is on top with uranium and gold also in strong uptrends. They’re all crushing the SPY: The metals are being boosted from a variety factors including industrial demand, central bank buying, and good old-fashioned momentum. And here’s another example of how extreme the #silversqueeze is. We searched Google Trends for “silver price” and that chart is just as parabolic as SLV: So yes, the general public is here. 3. The Energy Boom Continues On January 5, OIH put in the “Gap of the Year” on President Trump’s presumed takeover of the Venezuela oil industry. Then it was off to the races, and OIH is up 21% on the year: But it gets much more interesting when we take a long-term view. OIH is still way off the $935.46 all-time high from 2014. And it’s right at resistance in the $343 area: The kicker here might be Europe. If they get friendlier to oil after very mixed results from alternative energy, there could be a global energy production spending boom. And there could be a massive catch-up play for OIH. 4. Russell Just Reversed The FOMC is on Wednesday, and the market is pricing in a 2.8% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. And of course, the Fed’s forward direction is hard to predict. So this week was a good time for the Russell 2000 Index to take a break after a furious start to 2026. IWM put in a big topping tail Wednesday with nasty downside follow-through on Friday: And it’s not even at the 20-day moving average yet. If next week’s earnings stink, IWM could lead to the downside. Speaking of earnings… 5. Earnings Season Is Upside Down According to FactSet, 13% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, and things don’t look great so far: Earnings growth is tracking at 8.2%, below the 8.3% expected on December 31. And companies are reporting earnings that are 5.3% above estimates, below the 5-year average of 8.7%. In recent quarters, we’ve been used to estimates coming down, and companies crushing those lowered estimates. Q4 2025 earnings season has been a flip-flop. Estimates have been on the upswing, and now the beats are getting smaller. Should we freak out? Not until next week when Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and other indexy heavyweights report. They should push that 8.2% number up. With an emphasis on the word “should.”
Continue Reading -->Heavy Metal Traders Are Getting Rich
Congratulations. You survived the first half of January. So it’s time for the 5 charts you need to see. Though there’s more than 5 this week: Heavy Metal Traders Are Getting Rich Metals won in 2025, and they’re winning again this year. But while everyone’s obsessed with the #silversqueeze, there is another dominant metal in 2026: uranium. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 26.5% this month, edging out the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The AI industry is driving demand for more nuclear power. And nuclear power providers need a lot more uranium, which is in short supply. Bank of America said uranium prices could rise by 50% by 2027, and named Cameco (CCJ) its number one pick. It’s been on fire this year: But uranium and silver are not the only metals winners. Copper, platinum, palladium, and lithium are all in uptrends. So this the year of heavy metal! Full disclosure: CCJ is one of my biggest personal equity holdings. But let’s talk about my biggest position, which isn’t doing as well as CCJ: Apple = Crapple Every time it looks like it’s waking up, Apple (AAPL) goes back to sleep. Look at this mess: Do you need indicators or squiggly lines to see how ugly this is? Now, I’m not selling my Apple because the company’s got two huge things going for it: Android is, um, not very cool The products all just work together It’s a good thing earnings are in two weeks, because we need resolution here. Either a screaming rally back to the highs, or a final death blow. This slow bleed is too painful to endure. If it’s gonna go down, let’s just get it over with! Small Caps Go on a Wild Ride We’ve been hearing about a small cap comeback for years. But it may be happening. The Russell 2000 is up over 8% in January while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up less than 2%. And there are tons of individual winners. ‘ As of Friday afternoon, 205 stocks in the Russell 2000 are up more than 20% this month. And 32 are up more than 50%. We can’t necessarily attribute this to lower rates because the Fed direction isn’t quite clear. So it looks like a combination of speculative juices and catch-up. Investors Are Getting Very Bullish The crowd is getting very bullish after a big rally from the December lows. According to the AAII Sentiment Survey, 49.5% investors are bullish: This is the highest bullish reading since November 14, 2024, which was right after President Trump’s election victory, which drove a massive surge in stocks. Interestingly, it seems that survey respondents are not concerned about all the chaos in the world, between Venezuela, Iran, the President going after Powell, uncertainty on the economy, etc. Or perhaps everyone’s just gotten used to chaos by now. Just keep in mind that timing the market using sentiment indicators is notoriously difficult. Happy times can last. Micron Earnings Estimates Are Insane Micron (MU) is up 249% over the past year, and if you want to know why, look at the power of a memory shortage. Earnings estimates have gone parabolic, as you can see in this chart. This is crazier than what we saw with Nvidia 3 years ago. In the past 12 months, FY2026 EPS estimates have gone from $11.24 to $32.67. Everybody from Nvidia (NVDA) to AMD (AMD) to Alphabet (GOOGL) is desperate for memory and prices are going through the roof. Crazy stuff.
Continue Reading -->5 Charts You Need to See: Nvidia the Value Stock?
We just closed out the first full trading week of the year, featuring new all-time highs, a crappy jobs report, and the Supreme Court failing to render a decision on President Trump’s tariffs. But we’re here with the 5 charts you need to see right now, covering Uranium, Nvidia (NVDA), and MORE! 1. Uranium Is Shocking the World… Again The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 18% YTD vs. +1.4% for $SPY. That’s after URA surged 67% last year. The latest catalyst was Meta (META) signing nuclear power deals with Vistra (VST) and Oklo (OKLO), plus the Bill Gates-backed TerraPower. This is a fascinating point in the AI cycle. Because it’s uncertain how long Nvidia (NVDA) can dominate chip performance. But it seems 100% certain that AI is sucking up a lot of electricity. And insider the uranium mining complex specifically, there is just not a lot of supply in terms of stocks to buy. Look at the market caps of the better-known uranium companies: Cameco (CCJ): $46 billion Uranium Energy (UEC): $7.1 billion Energy Fuels (UUUU): $4.3 billion Denison Mining (DNN): $2.9 billion And the URA ETF itself has just $6.3 billion in assets. 2. Nvidia: Value Stock? Traders and investors are increasingly focused on the skyrocketing “second-order” AI stocks in areas like nuclear power and memory. Former AI Kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) feels left behind to the point where it looks like a value stock, even though its earnings winning streak shows no sign of slowing. It’s trading at just 26.6 times forward earnings. Meanwhile, Costco (COST) trades at 45 times earnings. Meanwhile, Nvidia is expected to grow earnings by 57% this year. For Costco, it’s 11%. 3. Apple’s Big Oversold Signal Apple (AAPL) is the second most oversold stock in the Nasdaq 100/QQQ, based on RSI: That reading is nearing the April 2025 lows after the Liberation Day selloff. Traders are worried about a myriad of issues including a China slowdown, skyrocketing memory costs, and Tim Cook possibly slowing down. There’s always chatter about the company being behind in AI… but how many people are dropping Apple devices over that? I mean, I can use ChatGPT and Gemini and Grok and whatever else on my iPhone. Right? With the stock this oversold and the chatter so negative, perhaps it’s time for a bounce. And the one QQQ stock more oversold than Apple (AAPL)? It’s Netflix (NFLX), which has been beaten down because of the Warner Brothers acquisition drama. 4. PayPal Is Sitting on Major Support PayPay (PYPL) can be one of the most frustrating stocks in the market. It operates in two modes: High-speed uptrend Value trap disaster And now it’s sitting on major support around $57, which is above the 2023 low around $50. Could there be $7 of risk down, and $30 up? At less than 11 times forward earnings, this is one stock we have to watch. 5. OIH Is the ETF to Watch Following President Trump’s presumed takeover of the Venezuela oil industry, the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is the ETF to watch. Because the companies in the OIH make the equipment and technology that gets oil out of the ground. And you have to think these companies are about to land some big fat contracts. On Monday, OIH made the “Gap of the Year” on the Venezuela news. And that gap held:
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