My Secret Chinese Buy List
Sami Abusaad is still bullish on China – and is focused on some new names you haven’t heard of: Sami explains: Why the overall market bias remains bullish Why Microsoft (MSFT) looks like SPY and QQQ The breakout setup in a Draftkings (DKNG) Why China name Kingsoft Cloud (KC) looks ready to rip The other names China loves right now The AI names that looks destined to fail An airline stock set to break down further
Continue Reading -->Can Elon Musk Save TSLA Stock? David Prince Explains
Tesla (TSLA) reported Q2 earnings this week that missed expectations as car sales continue to fall. David Prince explains it’s about more than just declining auto sales for this name: David covers: The bad news on the robotics timeline from the conference call The important levels he’s focused on in the TSLA chart Whether Elon Musk will be able to save the stock Other key earnings How he’s navigating the current market environment And his favorite setups right now Apply to work with David in the Inner Circle VTF® here.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Biggest Week Ever Edition
What a week! We just saw: The President of the United States of America argue with the Chair of the Federal Reserve over the cost of building renovations (yes, for real) A US- Japan trade deal Monster earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL) A big ol’ mess from Tesla (TSLA) Record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq And way, way more! So let’s dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right now, starting with… 1. You’re Headed into the Biggest Week of the Year Next week’s calendar is jam packed, highlighted by: US Economics: FOMC Rate Decision, PCE Price Index, Nonfarm Payrolls US Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Visa, Starbucks, Robinhood, ExxonMobil, and ARM Holdings International Economics: Japan and Canada Rate Decisions, Germany and Eurozone CPI Plus, we’re destined to get hit with a pile of trade news, including a potential deal between the US and the EU. So if you’ve been hoping more volatility… buckle up because the headlines will be flying in nonstop. So let’s talk about the Fed: 2. Rate Cut Outlook: Not so Good Traders are taking a July rate cut off the table for next week. The CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a mere 2.6% probability of a 25 bp decrease in the Fed Funds rate. There is optimism about September, however. The market now shows a 64.2% chance of a 25 bp cut by the September meeting. Of course, next week’s bevy of US economic data including GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm payrolls will impact expectations. What side are you on? Should the Fed cut rates now, later, or never? Let us know in the comments down below. 3. The Mood Slipped Bearish in the Face of Record Highs Despite the S&P and Nasdaq slamming to all-time highs this week, investor sentiment is slipping. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.8% of investors are bullish. This is the third straight weekly decline since the survey read 45.0% bullish on July 2. And it’s the first bearish reading since June 25. This decline implies there is a lack of trust in the rally, at least among investors. Of course, we are still well off the lows from earlier this year. 4. Tesla Estimates Are Still in Free Fall Tesla (TSLA) delivered its third straight earnings miss. So it’s no shocker that analysts’ estimates are still collapsing: If you look inside the red circle, you can see another dip in FY earnings estimates. Analysts now expect EPS of $1.72 this year, down from $1.81 ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report. And down from $3.24 a year ago. What can I say? Tesla’s still a stock built on hope for the future. On the other hand… 5. Amazon Just Keeps on Shocking Amazon reports earnings next Thursday and it’s always one of the biggest names of the season. Is it pricing in a monster earnings beat? The stock is up 30% in a straight line from the April lows. Plus, as you can see on the table below – Amazon has beaten earnings estimates for 9 straight quarters, with an average beat of +36%. Yet, the stock has sold off the day after earnings 4 times in a row. Could this be #5? 6. Sydney Sweeney Almost Created a Meme Stock Clothing brand American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) rose as much as 28% in premarket trading Thursday on the release of an advertising campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney. And it was looking AEO could turn into a meme stock. But the stock came back down to Earth: Because everyone’s asking a simple but important question: Can Sydney Sweeney drive sales? Analysts are forecasting Q3 sales at $173 million. If she drives $10 to $20 million in extra sales this quarter – that would be pretty big. Keep an eye on this story. Because short interest on American Eagle stock is 12.2% – pretty significant if the numbers get a lift. We recommend asking your teenage kids – “will you start shopping at American Eagle Outfitters?” 7. The AI Trade Rages On Alphabet’s (GOOGL) earnings report was fantastic, especially in the face of “expert” predictions that AI will kill Google Search. But perhaps the biggest story in that report was Alphabet boosting its capital spending budget, which sent up semiconductor stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD). The best possible bull case for semi stocks for Nvidia is demand outstripping supply. Longs want to hear “we can’t produce chips fast enough.” And if Google’s upping its spend, the competition for AI chips and related items goes up. On the negative side, expectations for Nvidia’s next earnings report are sky-high with the stock at record highs, up 102% from the April lows. And speaking of AI… it’s driving another raging trade… 8. Uranium Is Champion AI is driving increased electricity demand just as the US becomes more friendly to nuclear energy. The result? The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 55% in 2025, more than 5X the return of SPY: And here’s one fun fact about this sector. Uranium miner Cameco (CCJ), which accounts for 23.7% of the URA ETF, has a market cap of just $34 billion. So even at these heightened levels, institutions have very low exposure to this sector. Keep it on the radar. 9. 2025’s Biggest Winners Which S&P 500 stocks have done best in 2025? Let’s take a look. Palantir (PLTR) is in the #1 spot after dominating the leaderboard last year, followed by energy monster GE Vernova (GEV) and gold miner Newmont (NEM). Here’s the top 25: 10. You Can Learn Sami Abusaad’s #1 Indicator in 17 Minutes Sami Abusaad uses two indicators and nothing else. His favorite of the two? The 20-period moving average, which he explains right here in plain English:
Continue Reading -->How the USD Value Impacts Earnings Season
The value of the US Dollar has the potential to negatively impact companies as they report earnings this quarter. Professional trader Derrick Oldensmith explains using UUP: Derrick covers: How the USD value directly impacted earnings season in July 2022 How it may have the opposite effect this year The importance of currency valuations to big tech companies Derrick Oldensmith’s positions as of 9:33am ET July 22, 2025 Derrick Oldensmith is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG’), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades are placed through T3TG. T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses. The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. No one should consider the information disseminated by T3TG to be personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, an offer (or a solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any investment, or the provision of any other kind of investment advice. No one associated with T3TG is authorized to make any representation to the contrary. T3TG provides information that viewers of its programs may consider in making their own investment decisions. However, any viewer will be responsible for considering such information carefully and evaluating how it might relate to that viewer’s own decision to buy, sell or hold any investment. Such decisions must be based on that viewer’s individual and independent evaluation of his or her financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, family commitments and other factors, not in reliance on any information obtained from T3TG. Statements by any person (whether identified as associated with T3 Live, T3 Trading Group, or any other entity) represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG. It is possible that any individual providing information or expressing an opinion on any T3TG program may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Viewers of T3TG programs should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinion being expressed. Although T3TG strives to provide accurate and reliable information from sources that it believes to be reliable, T3TG makes no guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness of any such information. T3TG makes no guarantee or promise of any kind, express or implied, that anyone will profit from or avoid losses from using information disseminated through T3TG. All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Viewers of T3TG programs should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified professionals prior to making any investment decision. The risk of loss in trading equities, options, forex and/or futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading may benefit you as well as conversely lead to large losses beyond your initial investment. Past results are not indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. T3 Trading Group, LLC is a Registered SEC Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trading conducted by contributors associated with T3TG on the Virtual Trading Floor is done through T3TG. For more information on T3 Trading Group, LLC please visit www.T3Trading.com.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Ultimate Trump Trade Edition
What a week! We just saw: Record highs in SPY and QQQ Strong earnings from the likes of JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Netflix (NFLX) President Trump continue to harass Fed Chair Jerome Powell Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller call for a July rate cut… which might be his official application for the Fed Chair job A shocking rally in what bears call “low quality” stocks And way, way more! So let’s dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right now, starting with… 1. The Ultimate Trump Trade Just Won’t Quit We’ve talked a lot about the monster moves in stocks that benefit from financial market volatility, including: Robinhood (HOOD) Coinbase (COIN) Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Charles Schwab (SCHW) Webull (BULL) These stocks went WILD this week thanks to higher stock and crypto currency prices plus strong earnings from Interactive Brokers and Charles Schwab: Webull led the way with a 22% gain. So what are these stocks telling us? The market expects: Higher stock and crypto prices Strong volumes thanks to Trump-driven news flow. Keep these names on your radar. 2. Sentiment Is Bullish, But Not in a Crazy Way The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 39.3% of investors are bullish. This is the third straight week of above-average bullish readings. Before this streak, the last such bullish reading was way back on January 30. And of course, we are well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. It goes to show – nothing brightens the mood like rising stock prices. So do these numbers indicate rampant bullishness? No. It’s common for bullish readings to go over 50% in strong markets. But do you know what does indicate rampant bullishness? This: 3. “Low Quality” Stocks Provide High-Quality Returns We screened for stocks with these attributes: Under $100 million in revenues Market cap over $2.5 billion We came up with 28 names: 27 of 28 were up this week with an average return of 13.3%. The bears will tell you that surges in low-quality stocks can be a sign of extreme froth. But remember, they’re only low quality if you’re not in them! But, our friend David Prince of T3 Live’s Inner Circle had something interesting to say on Thursday evening: 4. Listen to David Prince Now Here’s what he told us: Late stage bull markets are awesome and DANGEROUS… this is when 5 dollar stocks go to 20 in days. It’s also why trying to call the top is a fool’s errand. Often the most money is made right here and now. Just remember when the music stops to have a chair waiting. — The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince (@epictrades1) July 17, 2025 So what’s David saying? That this could be a dangerous time. But’s also a lucrative one – as you can see by the eye-popping moves in speculative stocks like Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Joby Aviation (JOBY), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI). These companies have questionable fundamentals, but sexy stories. And right, traders are buying stories. 5. Ethereum Screamed This week, the US Congress passed the “Genius Bill,” which regulates Stablecoins. This legislation is aimed at making Stablecoins safer for mainstream use. This gave Ethereum a big turbo-booster since it’s used in many Stablecoins. And Ethereum rose over 19% this week while Bitcoin slid off its peak: 6. This Week Is BIG We got a whole lot going on this coming week, including: Fed Chair Powell speaking at a conference in Washington DC The ECB rate decision Earnings from Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), and other key names 2 US bond auctions And MORE! This is a big improvement from this week’s snoozefest (outside of President Trump’s antics, of course) So let’s talk about a funny thing we see with Tesla: 7. Tesla Keeps Getting Worse and Better Tesla (TSLA) stock is up 31% over the past year. Yet its earnings estimates have dropped HUGE: What’s holding the stock up? 4 Words: “In Elon We Trust.” So here’s a possible scenario for earnings on Wednesday: Tesla delivers a tiny earnings beat, and the stock pops 10%. So it’s a good time to look at earnings season overall: 8. Earnings Season Is Going Better Than You Think We’ve yapped endlessly about how low expectations have been for Q2 earnings season. So how’s it going so far? Very well, thank you very much. FactSet tells us that so far: 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates 83% have beaten revenue estimates So once again, the market braced for an awful earnings season and it’s turning out pretty well. On June 30, Q2 earnings were estimated to grow by 4.9%. That number’s since creeped up to 5.6% as better-than-expected reports keep rolling in. 9. Fed Rate Cuts? Outlook Not So Good This week, FOMC Board Member Christopher Waller made waves by calling for a rate cut at the July 28-29 meeting. The market doesn’t see that happening. The CME’s Fedwatch tool shows a mere 4.7% probability of a July rate cut. And September is not a done deal. The market is pricing in a 57.8% chance of a rate cut by September. Oh well. Surprises are fun! 10. Trading Is Not About Lambos and Miami Mansions This week, we asked Sami Abusaad and JR Romero a simple question: what do you love about trading?Here’s what they told us: Have a wonderful weekend, friends!
Continue Reading -->Why Great Traders Are Psychotically Competitive
JR Romero explains why if you want to make lots of money fast, do not become a professional trader. JR goes over: Why winning at trading is a long-term process What stressful risk management will teach you about your mindset The reason most successful traders are super-competitive people Why independence is so important to JR The power of being your own boss – and how the market can give that to you
Continue Reading -->Why I Love Trading
Sami Abusaad loves trading – but not because it’s an easy way to get Lambos and women: Sami explains: How trading has changed his life Why Sami likes to be his own boss The surprising thing he learned about himself through trading Why trading has taught him way more about life than books Why he likes being his own boss
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Bitcoin Bonanza Edition
What a week! We just saw: President Trump threaten Canada and other countries with higher tariffs Nvidia (NVDA) become the first-ever member of the $4 trillion market cap club The S&P 500 hit record highs again A giant crypto rally A 21% gain in the usually miserable cannabis sector Extension in “The Ultimate Trump Trade” (we discuss below) And way, way more! So let’s dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right freaking now. 1. Bitcoin and Ethereum Are BOOMING Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies skyrocketed Thursday as investors went risk-on. Sami Abusaad predicted the boom, and went long Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) Wednesday for a sweet ride from $21.89 to nearly $25: His initial target for ETHE is $30. Sami also went long iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) on Thursday, with an entry of $63.81. He has not yet assigned a price target but sees incredible upside ahead. Want to learn how Sami makes these incredible picks? Watch this quick webinar, and then go here to get “ESP.” 2. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On We’ve talked extensively about the huge outperformance in stocks that benefit from financial market volatility, namely: Robinhood (HOOD): +302% since the election Coinbase (COIN): +98% Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +66% Charles Schwab (SCHW): +31% And all were up this week, even with the broad markets flat. So what are they telling us? That until something in the market and/or economy really breaks, traders expect this magic combo of upward movement and crazy news flow to continue. So let’s talk about how people feel about this market… 3. Sentiment Stayed BULLISH This Week The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.4% of investors are bullish, down slightly from 45% last week. This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. These were the first above-average bullish readings since January 30, 2025. Many investors are concerned about the tariff picture and earnings season. But nothing perks up the mood like higher stock prices. And this newfound bullishness comes at an interesting time because… 4. Tuesday’s Gonna Be Big On top of the usual political back-and-forth, next week’s calendar is filled to the brim, highlighted by Tuesday, which features: The June CPI report Earnings from JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and other major banks FOMC Member Bowman speaking And more: Later in the week we’ll get the June PPI report, retail sales, Eurozone CPI, and even more earnings from the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Goldman Sachs (GS), and American Express (AXP). So there should be plenty of action. And what’s the big story for earnings? 5. Earnings Expectations Are Shockingly Low… AGAIN FactSet says that Q2 EPS growth is estimated at 4.8%. That’s down from 9.4% expected growth back on March 31. Every single sector has had downward estimate revisions. And this is GREAT news. Why? Because it means expectations are so low that could see a repeat of Q1’s major upside earnings surprises. 78% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates in Q1. Don’t be shocked if that happens again. 6. JP Morgan Is Dominating JP Morgan (JPM), reports Tuesday morning, has been a dominant market force in 2025. The stock is up nearly 22% this year, tripling the performance of the S&P 500. And after 5 straight impressive earnings beats, the market is bracing for a sixth. Look at that earnings multiple just grow and grow and grow: 7. Smart Traders Are Saying Less Is More On Thursday, Rick March of the Inner Circle VTF® made this well-timed post on Twitter/X: Reading TWTR I seesome really intelligent arguments for the market to come in. Oscillators say overbought. Tariffs, Geopolitics. Only one problem, stocks don’t break down. In times like these, focus becomes more important. Pick a couple of names that you like the story and the… — Rick March (@CrankyRicky) July 10, 2025 One of the names Rick highlighted, AeroVironment (AVAV) rose over 10% on Friday, giving the community a monster win: $AVAV has been a focus name for @epictrades1 and the Inner Circle all week David’s last buys on the stock were in the mid-$230s and he was trimming above $250 this morning 😎 Join the team: https://t.co/ihjWyUCC4q pic.twitter.com/Lo0LxuMBJF — T3 Live (@t3live) July 11, 2025 8. Fed Rate Cut Odds Still Low According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 4.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 18.2% a month ago. And traders are now targeting a 61.1% chance of a 25 bps cut in September. That number could surge if we get another light CPI report on Tuesday. 9. CPI Has Been Cool… but Will It Stay Cool Enough? As you can see on this gorgeous chart, CPI has been on the decline for years. Core CPI has come in below expectations for 4 straight months, so it’s possible that a slightly light report has no impact – because that’s what markets are used to. As for me, the only thing I care about is egg prices. And those are certainly down from the highs… just not enough yet. 10. You Need Some Entertainment After a Zany Week Like This Contrary to popular belief, the best Wall Street movie is Margin Call. Here’s a pivotal scene in the film – when the Senior Partners of an imploding Wall Street firm meet to discuss the mess. Even if you’ve never seen the rest of the film, you’ll understand what’s happening.
Continue Reading -->We’re Due for a Pullback But I’m Still Bullish
Sami Abusaad says the market is extended and due for a pullback. But the technicals still look super bullish. Sami goes over: How the market looks super-extended on the daily chart Why his favorite idea is a boring insurance stock A crypto play he’s watching that’s NOT Bitcoin A pharmaceutical play that looks ready to turn higher The breakdown failure in VSTS The trouble with shorting a name like GME And MORE!
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Goodbye Rate Cuts Edition!
What a week! We just saw: Markets end Q2 on a positive note, showing no fear of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline A better-than-expected jobs report The US move closer to approving President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill A US-Vietnam trade deal Canada make a major concession to Trump with its immigration bill A sudden increase in bullishness among investors And a whole lot more. So let’s go over the 10 Things You Absolutely Need to Know Right Now – GOODBYE RATE CUTS EDITION. 1. Rate Cut Odds Slip Following Friday’s strong nonfarm payrolls report, which featured a lower-than-expected wage growth number, traders took a July rate cut off the table. The CME’s FedWatch tool implies a 6.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 23.8% yesterday. September odds are starting to slip as well. The market is pricing in a 67.4% chance of a rate cut by September, down from 71.9% yesterday, and from 74.3% last week. So let’s ask a big question: 2. Why Is President Trump Attacking Jerome Powell? President Trump keeps tossing verbal bombs at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and you might be wondering why. It’s a simple game. Assume we don’t get rate cuts, and the economy and financial markets crash. Trump assigns Powell the blame. If we do get rate cuts, the odds favor ongoing strength — even with a recession. According to Hartford Funds Research, cited by Bankrate The Hartford team reviewed 22 occasions from 1929 to 2019 when the Fed first cut rates and how stocks, bonds and cash performed over the subsequent 12 months. The after-inflation return of stocks averaged 11 percent, but returns diverged when the cut was associated with a recession. When the rate cut occurred and no recession took place, stocks averaged returns of 17 percent in the following year. But even when a recession took place, stocks were still 8 percent higher. 3. Traders Finally Turn Bullish… at an Inconvenient Time? The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of investors are bullish. This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. And it’s the first above-average bullish reading since January 30, 2025. Right into the July 9 Trade Deadline. Is that a bad thing? We’ll see. Interestingly enough… 4. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Weird Factset says that 110 S&P 500 companies issued guidance for the second quarter, with 59 of them being positive. This is actually well above the 5 and 10-year averages. So guidance was strong in the face of big fears over trade and the economy. Meanwhile, earnings expectations are low. Which is GREAT news. Analysts predict 5.0% Q2 earnings growth – the lowest since Q4 2023. This is down from 9.4% on March 31. And why is this great news? Because there is plenty of room for companies to beat. Which is exactly what happened in Q1. Earnings grew 13.6% in Q1, which blew away estimates. 5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On We’ve talked a lot about the huge gains in brokerage stocks that benefit from increased trading volumes. They are BOOMING this year: Robinhood (HOOD): +150% Coinbase (COIN) +43% Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +31% Webull (BULL) +22% $SPY is up just 7%. Why is this industry doing so well? Because the environment is perfect. Markets are volatile but trending higher, and President Trump ensures heavy news flow. All good for trading volumes – and these stocks. But what’s not good for these stocks? Next week’s calendar: 6. Snoozefest? What a sad, pathetic little calendar we have for next week: Yes, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes and a couple of bond auctions. Maybe the big July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline will drive some action, but even that could be resolved soon. 7) Can We Talk About Bitcoin $200,000? Bitcoin is getting lots of attention because it’s flirting with key resistance around $110,000. So let’s ask a crazy question. Is Bitcoin headed to $200,000? JR Romero has an idea: 8. Small Caps Get a Start So far this month, IWM is beating SPY: 3 days of action do not make a trend. But it’s worth watching because SPY has more than doubled IWM’s performance over the last 10 years. That has to flip eventually. Right? Put it on the radar. 9) It’s Time to Write Your Trading Plan A trading plan can’t guarantee success. But a lack of planning guarantees your failure. So let Sami Abusaad take you through the process of writing a plan that sets you up for long-term success: 10) Happy Fourth of July! Don’t take the freedoms we have for granted. And watch the single best scene from Saving Private Ryan:
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