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The Stock Market Is Broken
ATTN: Sami’s next Mentorship is open! Go here to lock in your spot because they are going fast. Based on the charts, the stock market is still broken. Sami Abusaad explains why: Sami goes over: A massive breakout name that looks ready to go even higher An “unbelievably bullish” biotech name A unique energy stock with serious upside potential The solar name Sami wants to buy again based on its monthly chart The space name on his buy list A quantum name that looks ready to drop big
Continue Reading -->A Pure Hate Short on SMCI
In August of 2024, JR Romero called Super Micro (SMCI) the Bernie Madoff of tech because of their unsavory business practices. Today, the stock collapsed after three men connected to the company, including the co-founder, were indicted for smuggling Nvidia (NVDA) AI chips to China in violation of US Law. This led to a “pure pleasure” short in SMCI today: JR also goes over: Why he put on a “Hate Short” on SMCI How he found out over 20 years ago that SMCI was shady Why he does not trust this market How the SPX could hit 5,500 in a breakdown The reason the Private Credit market is a big problem And more!
Continue Reading -->Epic Bear Invasion Is Here
What a week. Inflation’s still a thing, Micron dropped another earnings bomb, and Chuck Norris is hanging with Bruce Lee in heaven. Watch this clip with respect because they don’t make ’em like this anymore: Now let’s go through the 5 things you need to know. The Bears Are Here The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 30.4% of investors are bullish. This is the 7th straight weekly decline, and the lowest bullish reading since September 11, 2025. And 52.0% of investors are bearish. This is the highest bearish reading since May 1, 2025. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 17, signifying extreme fear. Finally, the CBOE equity put-call ratio hit 0.90 Wednesday. This is a fairly high reading and close to the 1ish level typically seen at near-term bottoms. But has enough negativity seeped into the market to form a short-term bottom? That is the #1 question we need to ask ourselves. Because if we get good news on Iran over the weekend, a lot of bears may throw money at the market. March… What a Stinker March has been a real mess. Our ETF monitor shows that everything is red for March, aside from Ethereum (ETHE), Bitcoin (IBIT), and Energy (XLE): And many of the strongest sectors from early 2026 (like silver, gold, and uranium) got spanked. The SPY is down a not-so-disastrous -5.6%, but the average individual name in the index is down -7.2%. Plus, there have been very few individual winners in March, as you might expect from the lousy ETF numbers. Just 65 SPY names are positive. And to catch them, you had to be long energy, or had the guts to buy oversold software names like Datadog (DDOG), Intuit (INTU), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW). Otherwise, you got hit hard. The Fed Is a Total Mystery Following this week’s FOMC meeting, hot PPI report, rising rates, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the market has flip flopped on rate expectations. 1 week ago, the market was pricing in a 60.9% chance of lower rates this year. Now it’s pricing in: 5.4% chance of one 25 bps cut 57.9% of rates staying the same 30% chance of one 25 bps hike 6.0% chance of 50 bps in hikes 0.6% chance of 75 bps in hikes So we went from pricing in a 60.9% chance of lower rates to 5.4%. Housing stocks sniffed this out because they’ve been in a nasty downtrend for the past 6 weeks: JR Romero Nailed Super Micro (SMCI) In August 2024, JR Romero said he considered Super Micro (SMCI) to be the “Bernie Madoff of tech.” Today, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York charged three men affiliated with Super Micro with conspiring to smuggle Nvidia (NVDA) AI chips to China in violation of U.S. law. One of those men was Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw. Doesn’t get much worse than that. So JR was right. This company can not be trusted. But if we look at the news another way… is this not the biggest endorsement of Nvidia AI chips ever? Based on an SEC filing, Liaw owns over 15 million SMCI shares, which were valued at over $450 million as of yesterday’s close. Smuggling these chips is so lucrative that a guy this rich was willing to risk his company’s future. ALLEGEDLY. But you know who’s not crying today? Dell (DELL) longs: Because the market assumes some of Super Micro’s $40+ billion in annual sales will get shifted to Dell. And you figure Nvidia just might hold back on chip allocations to Super Micro. The 4 Horsemen of the AI-pocalypse Are Still Dominating On January 30, I identified these memory/storage leaders as the 4 Horsemen: SanDisk (SNDK) Seagate (STX) Western Digital (WDC) Micron (MU) And they’re still crushing it this year. And you know a group is how when the worst name (Micron) is up a crazy 47.3%! David Prince of T3’s Inner Circle shared his thoughts on this white-hot set of names: What does the $MU report mean for $SNDK $WDC and other peers?@epictrades1 says the “business is on fire” but that doesn’t mean the stocks will go up forever… Learn more from DP: https://t.co/VExJsdNZtf pic.twitter.com/sgHoxLykn4 — T3 Live (@t3live) March 19, 2026 The story here is simple. AI data centers can’t get enough memory and storage. These companies could probably double capacity and sell it out in minutes. If you want to see how this is playing out on the ground, I bought a SanDisk 2TB SSD drive for about $200 3 years ago. Today, they’re going for $349: This is insane.
Continue Reading -->David Prince: What’s Next for Memory Stocks After Micron Earnings
Micron (MU) reported blowout earnings and guidance this week… and the stock fell. David Prince explains why he wasn’t surprised by the drop in the stock despite a “phenomenal report”: David goes over: Why Micron’s (MU) results weren’t “enough” for Wall Street What these results mean for stocks like SanDisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC) How he’s been using the strategy of stock stages in this market How he’s navigated the recent market chop The future he sees for Swarmer (SWMR) after a blockbuster IPO this week And more! Apply to work with David inside the Inner Circle VTF® now.
Continue Reading -->A Market Breakdown Is Coming
ATTN: Sami’s next Mentorship is open! Go here to lock in your spot because they are going fast. Sami Abusaad says the overall market has turned bearish, but hasn’t broken down yet. He goes over the bearish pattern he’s seeing in SPY and QQQ: Sami covers: The strength he sees in energy stocks like DVN, CVX, and ENB The bullish momentum in memory and storage plays Crypto stocks he’s watching Two potential short setups And more!
Continue Reading -->The End of the Market As We Know It?
We’re about to enter week 3 of war with Iran. Crude oil hit shocking highs this week, while stocks hang in, right on the edge of failure. So it’s time for the 5 things you need to know. Play this week’s theme song as you read: 1. We Are on the Verge of Disaster. But There’s a Catch. The market has been a tight, frustrating mess with zero follow-through for months. And SPY, down just 2.7% year-to-date, looks like it might be on the verge of a breakdown. Is the 200-day moving average at $656 the next stop before a bigger collapse? It looks like it, but there’s a catch. And of course, that catch is between now and Monday morning, we will get 48 hours of headlines. Good luck figuring out what they’ll be. Axios reported this morning that President Trump told the G7 that Iran “is about to surrender.” The problem is the President has a long history of hyperbole (often a big asset), and Iran shows no signs of backing down. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is sending more US Marines and warships to the Middle East. The market wants resolution, ASAP. 2. Oil Traders Are Bracing for More Big Moves We took a look at options prices on crude oil futures. And those prices are high. Implied volatility on options expiring next Friday is at 120%. The $97 straddle for next Friday is trading around $13.58 right now. That’s an implied move of about 14% in a single week. That would seem wild at any other time. But anything can happen in the Strait of Hormuz, plus the rest of the global oil infrastructure. 3. The Mood Is Going Sour The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 31.9% of investors are bullish. This is the 6th straight weekly decline, and the lowest level since November 12. It’s not an extreme reading, but it’s below the long-term 37.5% average. And bearish sentiment jumped to 46.4%, the highest level since November 12. The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio reached 0.80 Wednesday, the highest since February 17. This shows a moderate amount of fear. It’s good to see more caution coming into the market, because by definition, it means there is a lack of froth. However, these are not extreme measures so we can’t use them as an excuse to load the boat with equities. 4. Private Credit Is Coming Into Focus Many market observers believe the private credit market is the next big market boogeyman. Private credit grew fast after the financial crisis when traditional banks bulled back on lending to smaller companies. But now defaults are rising thanks to lax underwriting standards, and there’s worry of a crisis brewing. This has hurt stocks like Blue Owl (OWL), Ares Management (ARES), and even Deutsche Bank (DB), which just disclosed $30 billion in exposure to private credit loans. And we noticed something funny this week. Google searches for “what is private credit?” have exploded: This story is going mainstream. 5. SanDisk Is Amazing I got stopped out of my SanDisk (SNDK) long last Friday. So of course it rallied back $100 in under a week. In the middle of a war. The stock is now up 176% this year, making it the #1 name in the S&P 500 index. Texas Pacific Land (TPL), the #2 stock, is up “only” 85%. And SanDisk has two fresh catalysts next week: Micron’s (MU) earnings report, and Nvidia’s (NVDA) big GTC conference. Both should point to strong demand for everything related to AI infrastructure, which of course includes flash memory storage. By the way, JR Romero is sticking to his $1,000 target price:
Continue Reading -->SanDisk $1,000. Oil $200. Let’s Talk About It.
One month ago, JR Romero laid out his $1,000 target price on SanDisk (SNDK). And it’s been going strong since then, rising over $60. In his latest video, JR explains why this stock will win big. And he also shares why crude oil could hit $200 per barrel. JR goes over: The unique technical setup in SanDisk (SNDK) The catalyst this week that ignited it Why he is not shorting oil Why the global oil production infrastructure is so fragile What the US’ inability to gain control over the Strait of Hormuz means And more!
Continue Reading -->How David Prince Trades Around a Core
Trading around a core position is a key money management strategy David Prince uses to make money on longer term positions. He explains the strategy using Immunome (IMNM) as an example: David goes over: How to have a short-term trade inside of a longer term position How not taking profits along the way can cost you money How to adjust to the new price of a stock after it moves How to determine risk/reward when adding back to a stock This lesson was part of David’s group coaching that is offered exclusively to members of the Inner Circle VTF®. Apply to join the group now.
Continue Reading -->Did Crude Oil Just Peak?
Traders are edge amid the US and Israel launching a major attack on Iran. So let’s look at the 5 things you need to know right now. 1. Crude Oil Went Parabolic. Did It Peak? The military conflict in Iran sent crude oil up over 30% this week. And the RSI on crude oil futures hovered around 87 Friday morning. In recent years, crude oil has tended to fade after hitting RSI levels in the 85+ range. So should we short crude oil? It’s a tough question. Because we could walk into any kind of news come Monday morning. So shorting oil feels like a binary bet on things like: The status of the Strait of Hormuz Whether Iran is open to a deal What President Trump says on Truth Social at 3 in the morning Interestingly, the red hot oil service sector sold down hard this week, which feels like a massive “sell the news.” Oil service stocks had been ripping because higher oil prices mean more oil projects become economically feasible. (plus the favorable regulatory backdrop) But now it looks like an awful lot of news was priced in. And believe it or not, OIH was as high as $440 early Monday morning. Now it’s around $375, 14% off that high. 2. Lousy Jobs Report = FOMC Rate Cuts? On Friday morning, we got the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, and it was a mess, even taking into account temporary factors impacting the numbers. But is the FOMC needle moving? Yes. A little bit. Markets are now pricing in a 50.4% chance of a rate cut by June, up from 33% yesterday. So the market sees: 42.3% chance of 25 bps in cuts 7.8% chance of 50 bps in cuts 0.3% chance of 75 bps in cuts Of course, the rising price of oil is inflationary. And next week, we have multiple key US economic data reports including CPI, Existing Home Sales, ADP Employment Change, GDP, and Core Price Index. So we should get more insights into the state of the US economy. 3. Palantir Perked Up Most tech stocks had a rough week. Palantir (PLTR) was an exception thanks to its close ties with the US and Israeli military: Palantir’s AI systems are reportedly used for applications like target identification. The military-industrial complex is rapidly becoming the military-industrial-data complex and Palantir (along with companies like Anthropic) is at the heart of it. The Times reports that 20 soldiers using Palantir AI are accomplishing a workload that required a team of 2,000 during the US invasion of Iraq. Traders often ask the most obvious question about Palantir: why is this stock trading at 50 times sales? The answer is simple. The US military can’t (or won’t?) live without Palantir’s technology. And the US military wants to keep that tech to itself. 4. Traders Are in a Funk Investors and traders are still in a funk. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.1% of investors are bullish. This is the third straight week of below-average bullishness. And it’s well off the 49.5% high set on January 14. Meanwhile, the CBOE equity-put call ratio is 0.6o, which is in the range of neutral. So traders are far from euphoric. This is a positive because it implies few traders are all-in bullish. In fact, it seems like everyone’s waiting for resolution on Iran before placing their chips down. And odds are, if equity markets keep weakening, bullish sentiment should drop below 30% next week. 5. An Ugly Stock Is Looking Beautiful The single worst stock in the S&P 500 this year is tech research & advisory company Gartner (IT). According to conventional wisdom, Gartner’s business looks ripe to be eaten by AI. On February 3, the stock dropped 20% after the company reported weak guidance. But on March 5, Sami Abusaad added the stock to his Number Ones swing trading newsletter at $167.63. And it’s starting to fill that big ugly earnings gap: Wall Street’s indifferent on the stock, with 4 buys, 9 holds, and 2 sell ratings. But the stock looks like it’s under accumulation. Will be interesting to see where it is in a month.
Continue Reading -->Pro Trader Discusses the Importance of Market Seasonality
Pro Trader Derrick Oldensmith spent many years of his career not believing in seasonality. He explains why he’s changed his thesis after learning more about market dynamics: Derrick goes over: What influences seasonality in the market Why we are coming up on a seasonally strong season for the market What he could see happening at the end of March into April Derrick’s positions as of 1:14pm ET March 5, 2026 Derrick Oldensmith is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG’), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades are placed through T3TG. T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses. The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. No one should consider the information disseminated by T3TG to be personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, an offer (or a solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any investment, or the provision of any other kind of investment advice. No one associated with T3TG is authorized to make any representation to the contrary. T3TG provides information that viewers of its programs may consider in making their own investment decisions. However, any viewer will be responsible for considering such information carefully and evaluating how it might relate to that viewer’s own decision to buy, sell or hold any investment. Such decisions must be based on that viewer’s individual and independent evaluation of his or her financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, family commitments and other factors, not in reliance on any information obtained from T3TG. Statements by any person (whether identified as associated with T3 Live, T3 Trading Group, or any other entity) represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG. It is possible that any individual providing information or expressing an opinion on any T3TG program may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Viewers of T3TG programs should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinion being expressed. Although T3TG strives to provide accurate and reliable information from sources that it believes to be reliable, T3TG makes no guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness of any such information. T3TG makes no guarantee or promise of any kind, express or implied, that anyone will profit from or avoid losses from using information disseminated through T3TG. All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Viewers of T3TG programs should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified professionals prior to making any investment decision. The risk of loss in trading equities, options, forex and/or futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading may benefit you as well as conversely lead to large losses beyond your initial investment. Past results are not indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. T3 Trading Group, LLC is a Registered SEC Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trading conducted by contributors associated with T3TG on the Virtual Trading Floor is done through T3TG. For more information on T3 Trading Group, LLC please visit www.T3Trading.com.
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