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Sentiment Report: Manic Panic for the Holidays
Let me get right to the point: traders are crazy bullish right now. I love to troll the bears for crying that everyone’s too bullish, but today they’re finally right. Let’s work through the numbers so you can see what I’m talking about — and I’ll give you an idea of how you can start 2018 on the right foot. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.35, which is extraordinarily low based on historical norms. On Wednesday, it hit 8.9, the lowest level since the 8.56 all-time low from November 24. This gives us a 3-month spread at 3.8 indicating that traders are very bullish, and expect almost no volatility heading into the final week of the year. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 68, exactly flat from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 68 is basically moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 50.5% of individual investors are bullish, a big jump from last week’s 45.0% reading. This is the single highest reading of 2017. So basically, it took 11 months of nonstop grinding up to get individual investors overly excited about stocks! It’s also well above the 38.5% long-term average. All year long, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.560. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.563, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.550 — again, very low. These numbers point to extreme bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect that we’re going to end the new year with a big bang above SPX 2700. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 neutral (up from 3 last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. That time, the bulls were right to be so positive, because after that, all indices hit fresh all-time highs. But now I’m wondering if we’re about to see a repeat of December 2016. For the past two weeks, sentiment has been about as bullish as it gets, which incidentally, is exactly what happened last December. That resulted in a brief drawdown into the 2017 New Year, after which it was off to the races. Now, if you’re not sure of where to put your money in 2017, I’d check out Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook ReportIt includes 18-22 picks that could seriously outperform in 2018, including names in the crypto currency, tech stock, financials, and commodities spaces. Heck, Scott’s even dipping his toe in precious metals! Click here to read more.
Continue Reading -->Where Is the Stock Market Going in 2018? Readers Sound Off!
Where is the stock market going in 2018? Will Bitcoin beat the S&P 500? Is it time to dump tech stocks and get into banks? These are the types of questions we’re asking ourselves as we close out 2017. And since we got so many great responses to our recent Bitcoin survey, we reached out to T3 Live readers to get their thoughts on these questions. So let’s go through the results of our survey asking readers for their 2018 outlooks. Please keep in mind that this is not a scientific survey, so please take all the findings with a grain of salt. Will the S&P 500 finish up or down in 2018? 72.6% of respondents said the S&P will finish up in 2018. No shocker there, considering that the market’s been ripping up in a straight line all year. Which sector will do BEST? 38.4% of respondents said tech will be the #1 sector in 2018. Again, that’s no shocker. Besides Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, technology stocks have been the #1 place to be since President Trump’s 2016 election. Which sector will do WORST? Traders must believe all the “Amazon is taking over the world” headlines, because respondents are very bearish on retail. 27.8% of respondents believe will retail will perform worst, followed by utilities at 25%. Which asset class will perform best in 2018? Respondents are most bullish on stocks, with 38.9% saying stocks will be the best-performing asset class for 2018. Will the VIX rise over 40 at any point during the year? Now here’s where the survey gets interesting. Respondents are bullish on what’s been working: stocks in general, tech stocks in particular, and Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. But 50% expect a spike in the VIX to over 40. Not that traders were necessarily cognizant of the specific numbers, but the VIX hasn’t been over 40 since the October 24, 2015 flash crash — over 2 years ago. Will the S&P 500 have a -10% down day in 2018? The S&P 500 has had only 1 10% down day in history — October 19, 1987 a.k.a Black Monday. Yet 55.7% of respondents said the S&P 500 will have a 10% down day in 2018: Will the S&P 500 enter a bear market in 2018? (defined as dropping 20% off the highs) But in keeping with traders’ generally bullish tone, just 29.6% expect a bear market in 2018, defined as a 20% drop off the highs: What is the single biggest risk facing the stock market in 2018? For this question, we’re simply going to post some of the more interesting responses, completely unedited aside from spelling corrrections: Trump impeding Mueller’s investigation More aggressive Federal Reserve Anything happening to President Trump! Domestic geopolitical shocks as well as foreign policy Revolution against globalization Rates Turkish led civil unrest and war in the middle east. Inverted Yield Curve Selling to fund crypts. Apart from banking all other sectors should be positive overall ‘Trump agenda gets stalled by congress A geopolitical blacks wan (middle east as an example) North Korea The mid-term election Multiple rate hike, but highly unlikely Donald Trump Traders seem most concerned with domestic politics and international unrest. In particular, there is a good deal of worry about some kind of Trump-related surprise. What is your single biggest challenge as a trader or investor? (be as detailed as you’d like!) Traders seem most worried about the Fed, getting picked off by HFT’s/algos, and trading through what feels like an extended market. Here are some responses, again, completely unedited except for spelling corrections: Timing moves so you aren’t buying too early, not getting shredded by HFTs front-running or running stops. Lack of volatility due to incessant money printing and the FED day trading the markets to hold indexes up Keeping up with the market. If not 100% in the market, chasing it was tough. Risk Mgmt. was out the window in 20177. Hope, it comes back in 2018. Keeping emotions out of the process Sizing up my trades and letting them run a little longer Keeping up with technological advances and tax Staying in stocks/funds in an overvalued market Staying with the trend (not reading copious amounts of newsletters crying out that the stock market is overbought because of indicator readings….) Staying Long when the market is at nose bleed territory Too many ETF’s hurts individual stock picking So what are you worried about? Post a comment below and let us know!
Continue Reading -->Trader Survey: Give Us YOUR 2018 Predictions!
Got a minute? Take this brief survey and tell us where YOU think the market’s going in 2018! Don’t forget to hit the submit button at the bottom! Loading…
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Traders Are Extra Bullish for the Holidays
Traders are squarely focused on the progress of the GOP tax bill. And judging by the market action on Friday, it certainly looks like they’re feeling that it’s going to pass soon: The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all hit fresh all-time highs The Russell 2000 is outperforming by a big margin The US dollar is rallying Bank stocks are rocking hard Gold slipped into the red. But with two weeks to go in 2017, just how bullish are traders on equities after a year of nonstop opportunities to buy the dip? Let’s take a look at our 4 primary sentiment indicators to see if traders are going gaga for stocks. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.51, which is very low based on historical norms. This gives us a 3-month spread at 4.18 indicating that traders are very bullish, and expect almost no volatility heading into year-end. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 68. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 68 is basically moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of individual investors are bullish. This is the fourth highest reading of 2017, and a huge jump from last week’s 36.9% reading. It’s also well above the year-to-date average of 34.5% and the 38.5% long-term average. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 45.0% is basically fairly positive. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.560. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.592, which is very low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.560 — again very low. These numbers point to serious bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect more all-time highs into the new year. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 neutral (up from 3 last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. We’re seeing similar conditions right now. Stock market sentiment is about as bullish as it gets. So I’ll repeat what I just said: the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. The market’s higher than it was on October 6, when many permabears were calling tops because sentiment was out of control. Could the market fall from here? Or course! But timing trades off sentiment is near-impossible. We very well could see a melt-up into year-end, so look both ways before crossing this bull!
Continue Reading -->Why Is Bitcoin Moving? T3 Live Readers Sound Off!
Yesterday, we held a Bitcoin survey to get our readers’ thoughts on the raging cryptocurrency. Bitcoin mania truly is running wild. As of the time of this writing, the app for digital currency market place Coinbase is at #2 in the Apple App Store: (screenshot taken at 7:20 a.m. ET Friday) Yes, Coinbase is pulling more downloads than Instagram, Snapchat, and Facebook. So what’s moving Bitcoin? Let’s take a look at our survey results question by question. Before we get started, please understand this: This survey is very informal, and should not be considered scientific. Take the answers with a grain of salt, and certainly don’t use them to make buy/sell decisions in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Question #1: Have you ever traded Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency? 35.7% of survey respondents said they have traded Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. Just 26.2% responded “no, but i want to get started.” So it seems that many traders are still fairly skeptical. Question #2: Is it too late to get into Bitcoin? 42.1% said ‘I don’t know.’ Meanwhile, just 26.3% of respondents said yes, that it is too late to get into Bitcoin. Question #3: What asset do you think will perform best in the next 5 years? Just 22% of respondents believe “Bitcoin and/or other cryptocurrencies” will perform best in the next 5 years. Interstingtly that’s exactly the same number that believe ‘Gold or other precious metals’ will perform best. 51.2% respondents believe equities will perform best. Question #4 What do you think of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies overall? This was an open-ended question that allowed readers to type in their own responses. These are some of the comments we received. All are completely unedited: Backed only by virtual numbers 0 and 1 in the computersystems it’s even more worthless than all the out of thin air printed money from the centralbanks of the world I am very skeptical of the whole crypto currency marketplace. It’s unclear to me if it is just a fad or a legitimate trading opportunity. Who is regulating this? It’s clear people are buying. Do we know if anybody is selling and cashing in on it? I have heard it is difficult to get your order executed quickly when buying. My gut feeling is that this will end in tears for many.” The Value of the underlying “Distributed Digital Ledgers” or “Blockchains” actually exceeds the value of Cryptocurrencies as mediums of exchange. Not useful yet, only a speculation vehicle at this point for people who dont trust traditional investments Good money laundering instrument, most of them are fraudulent, the danger of having the exchanges or your wallet hacked are enormous Clearly highly speculative. Very similar to internet Bubble of 2000… but ultimately the 2000 spawned off big winners and many losers. This will probably be the same. Also many losers like Mindspring were temporarily BIG winners for a short term. I still think people should get in for at least the short term. But monitor closely and also should only put in a small amount toward speculative assets. revolutionary, I prefer etherium and litecoin, because fortune 500 companies are building infrastructure around them. We also received a number of single-word answers like ‘scam’ and ‘bubble.’ One commenter said “Bitcoin to 120K,” and that may have been sarcastic. To my surprise, there were no blatant “I love Bitcoin”type responses. Question #5: What do you think is driving the price of Bitcoin? Our final question was also open-ended, and we’re presenting some of the comments we received, completely unedited: FOMO (2) Limited Supply and a lot of demand Speculation Social media (tulip-mania) Tulip power. Drug dealers, hackers mafia, terror groups Speculation and anticipation of trading on CME lack of brain combined with a lack of history knowledge idea of replacing fiat currencies Law of attraction. Think about all of the media hype and energy being put into this thing. Whether you are for it or against it… you are still thinking about it…. That is the #1 reason the price is going up and will continue to go up a lot in the very short term. Lots of Chinese buying 1/10 shares thinking when the last coin is mined, supply and demand will be their friend! Interestingly, a number of survey respondents used variants of the word Tulip in reference to Dutch Tulip mania in 1636 – 1637. When creating this survey, I assumed we’d attract more Bitcoin bulls, but we got the opposite.
Continue Reading -->Gold in Focus Ahead of Jobs Report
Last week, traders were squarely focused on the progress of the GOP tax bill. But this week, it feels like everyone’s watching Bitcoin so much that the world’s forgotten about the stock market! In fact, look at what’s #2 in the Apple App Store: It’s Coinbase — the app for the popular digital currency market place! Yes, a Bitcoin app is pulling more downloads than Instagram and Facebook! With the November jobs report on the way this morning, let’s dig in and see how how bullish traders are feeling about the forgotten stock market ahead of the weekend. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish On Friday morning ahead of the November nonfarm payrolls report, the VIX was at 9.97, the first sub-10 reading since November 29. This gives us a 3-month spread at 4.36, indicating that traders are very bullish. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is 60, dowm from 73 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, so a reading of 60 is basically neutral. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.9% of individual investors are bullish. This is basically flat from last week’s 35.9+% reading, but it’s still way off the 45.1% level from 4 weeks ago, which itself was the highest since since January 5, 2017. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 36.9% is basically neutral. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.58. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.581, which is very low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.607. These numbers point to bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect a snap back to all-time highs in the SPX. ConclusionOut of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 2 neutral (down from 3 last week) 1 neutral (up from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) Here’s what I said last week: The permabears are still saying that everone’s all-in bullish and 100% complacent… and they’re right. If the bulls rush to the exits, they may face some trouble — there’s an awful lot of them, and only so many can fit through the door at once… Sentiment was very bullish last week, but it’s clearly cooled down this week. Judging by the VIX and the CBOE equity put-call, options traders see almost no volatility ahead — and a lot of upside potential. But when we mix in our data from the CNN Fear & Greed Index and the AAII sentiment survey, we a more nuanced picture. Market momentum has slowed, and individual investors are definitely in neutral territory. So clearly, traders are back in the “moderately bullish” camp. That’s not exciting to say, but it’s the truth. The big question now is what impact the jobs report will have on equities. I’m mostly interested in gold. Gold’s taken a big spanking, at least partially because Bitcoin has suddenly attracted a mountain of investor dollars. If we get a weak jobs report, gold could skyrocket, so keep an eye on it
Continue Reading -->99 of the Best Trading and Investing Quotes Ever Said
A good one-liner will never make you money in trading. But quotes can help you understand the mindsets of traders and investors that are more successful than you. That’s why we’ve put together 99 of the best trading and investing quotes ever said, from 99 different market experts. We kick it off with Warren Buffet… …and we’ll end it with a downright chilling remark from Bernie Madoff at #99. Can you make it all the way down that far?Get a FREE PDF of This Article!The best 99 quotes about trading ever said… and it ends with a WHOPPER from Bernie Madoff!Yes, I Want This FREE Download1) The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd.-Warren Buffett 2) If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.-Bernard Baruch 3) I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.-Jesse Livermore 4) Traders need a daily routine that they love. If you don’t love it, you’re not gonna do it.-Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live 5) Our main job is to know when to embrace risk, and when to hold back.-David Prince of T3’s Inner Circle 6) You don’t make money by trading, you make it by sitting. It takes patience to wait for the trade to develop, for the opportunity to present itself. Let the market come to you, instead of chasing the market. Chart patterns are very accurate. They have proven their accuracy and predictability time and time again, but you have to wait for them to develop.-Fred McAllen 7) Are you willing to lose money on a trade? If not, then don’t take it. You can only win if you’re not afraid to lose. And you can only do that if you truly accept the risks in front of you.-Sami Abusaad, Head of Strategic Day Trader and Strategic Swing trader 8) We don’t care about “why.” Real traders only have the time and interest to care about “what” and “when” and “if” and “then.” “Why” is for pretenders.-JC Parets, Founder of All Star Charts and Eagle Bay Capital 9) The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.-Paul Tudor Jones 10) “The biggest risk of all is not taking one.” -Mellody Hobson 11) Trading is not for the dabblers, the dreamers, or the desperate. It requires, above all, one steadfast trait – dedication. So if you are going to trade, trade like you mean it!-Rod Casilli 12) Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.-Albert Einstein, Theoretical Physicist & Nobel Prize Winner 13) Patterns don’t work 100% of the time. But they are still critical because they help you define your risk. If you ignore patterns and focus on hunches, feelings, and hot tips, just forget about achieving consistency.-Ifan Wei, T3 Live Strategic Day Trader Room Moderator 14) You learn in this business… if you want a friend, get a dog.-Carl Icahn 15) If most traders would learn to sit on their hands 50 percent of the time, they would make a lot more money.-Bill Lipschutz 16) The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’-Sir John Templeton 17) The most important three words in investing is: “I don’t know.” If someone doesn’t say that to you then they are lying.-James Altucher 18) I always define my risk, and I don’t have to worry about it. I walk into the pit every day with a clean slate, so that I can take advantage of what is going on.-Tony Saliba 19) A risk-reward ratio is important, but so is an aggravation-satisfaction ratio.-Muriel Siebert 20) Never confuse your position with your best interest. Many traders take a position in a stock and form an emotional attachment to it. They’ll start losing money, and instead of stopping themselves out, they’ll find brand new reasons to stay in. When in doubt, get out!-Jeff Cooper, Author of the Daily Market Report 21) Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.-George Soros 22) People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game.-Peter Lynch 23) The whole secret to winning big in the stock market is not to be right all the time, but to lose the least amount possible when you’re wrong.-William J. O’Neil 24) I think to be in the upper echelon of successful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It`s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn.-Michael Marcus 25) Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.-Bruce Kovner 26) Price lies all the time. Facebook can be valued at $40 billion and then $20 billion and then $200 billion inside of a four-year period of time. Which of these prices is the truth? None of them. But all of them were momentarily true, until they were rendered a lie, and a new truth was forged in the fires of the marketplace. Sunrise, sunset. Prices change and, with them, the truth itself.-Josh Brown 27) Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.-John Maynard Keynes 28) In trading you have to be
Continue Reading -->Traders Don’t Have the Tax Bill Blues… Yet
Two weeks ago, I said “volatility is finally picking up!” Just like we’ve seen throughout 2017, like clockwork, the bulls came back in to push all indices up to fresh record highs. On Thursday, the S&P 500 set a new all-time high at 2657.54, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing over 24,000 for the first time ever. Traders have been buying because they expect a tax reform bill. But on Thursday evening, the GOP push hit a wall as some lawmakers objected to the bill because of concerns over the Federal deficit. That sent futures down Friday morning, so let’s see how traders are feeling in the face of sudden uncertainty. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Yesterday, I pointed out that the VIX was surprisingly strong despite an impressive stock rally. This morning, the VIX is up 2.1% at 11.52, giving us a 3-month spread at 3.33, indicating traders are bullish. But keep an eye on the VIX. It’s been up for 5 of the past 6 days, and if equity markets weaken, it could spike. This gives us a 3-month spread of about +3.95, which means traders are very bullish. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is 73, up substantially from 54 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, so a reading of 73 qualifies as moderately greedy. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.9% of individual investors are bullish. This is flat from last week’s 35.5% reading, but it’s still way off the 45.1% level from three weeks ago, which itself was the highest since since January 5, 2017. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 35.9% is basically neutral. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.55 on Thursday, which is well below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.574, which is very, very low. In fact, it’s the lowest 10-day moving average since December 16, 2016. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure short-term bullishness, is 0.590. That’s the lowest since December 21, 2016. These numbers point to aggressive bullishness. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (up from 2 last week) 1 neutral (down from 2 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) The permabears are still saying that everone’s all-in bullish and 100% complacent… and they’re right. However, keep in mind that sentiment was even more positive back on October 6 when I declared: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. Of course, I hedged myself by adding that “the bulls may be insane… but they may also be right.” And they were right! All the indices have hit multiple record highs since then, while the bears are still on the floor crying. But maybe things are changing. Tax reform is now a mystery and the VIX may be on an upswing. If the bulls rush to the exits, they may face some trouble — there’s an awful lot of them, and only so many can fit through the door at once…
Continue Reading -->T3’s Top 10: Our Most Popular Articles for November 2017
What’s popular with the thousands of traders that make up the T3 Live community? You’re about to find out with our top 10 articles for November 2017, ranked by visits to our website. You can get a look at a top trader’s account statements showing $78K+ in profits from 4 weeks of trading, watch Scott Redler’s best-ever webinar, and even learn to game plan like a top trader. We’ll start with number 10 and work our way down to number 1: 10) $78,059.89 in 4 Weeks of Trading Earnings Sami’s no one hit wonder. Watch this video and you’ll see Sami’s actual account statements that show $78,059.89 in net profits since October 16. 9) You Just Lost $5,000 Trading. What Do You Do Next? How can you recover after a losing day? What do you do when you’re frustrated and angry because you know you could have done better? 8) How Implied Volatility Works In our introduction to options trading, we discussed some basics of options, like the differences between calls and puts, how options contracts work, and why options is a zero sum game. Now we’re going to dig into the single most important options pricing concept: implied volatility. 7) 6 Tips for Picking the Right Stocks for Day Trading You can spend years learning about moving averages, gaps, trendlines, and indicators. But if you’re day trading the wrong stocks, you’re setting yourself up for failure. 6) Black Room Game Planning with Sami Abusaad Ever want a look at a top pro trader’s watchlist? This is your chance to get the inside scoop on Sami’s top trades. 5) Video | Knowing Exactly When to Trade Rob explains how to get that feeling of conviction by knowing exactly when you should be in a trade, and WHY. Enjoy today’s 9 minute training video. 4) Sami Abusaad: $12K+ in Profit in 1 Day with Nautilus Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad takes you through an Earnings Play in fitness equipment company Nautilus (NLS). In total, Sami earned $12,115.50 in this one-day trade! 3) Trading Scans | The Foundation for Winning Trades In this special video, you’ll learn how using trading scans can unlock highly profitable opportunities. You’ll learn how to spot potential capitulations at the end of a momentum trade, plus explosions to new trends. 2) 6 Tips for Picking the Right Stocks for Day Trading If you ever find yourself asking yourself “what should I trade now,” then this article is for you. We’ve put together a list of 6 simple, effective tips for picking the right stocks for day trading. 1) Scott Redler Talks the Red Dog Reversal, H-Sell Setup, ROKU, and MORE! In this special live training webinar hosted by TradeStation, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down his 2 favorite trading strategies: the Red Dog Reversal, and the H-Sell Setup.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Traders Still Happy with the Low Vol Grind
In last week’s sentiment report, I said “volatility is finally picking up!” And then it collapsed all over again as the post-election bull market raged on, with all major indices including the Russell 2000 breaking to new all-time highs. The VIX fell back under 10, and the bears are once again asking “is this low-volatility grind ever going to end? Traders were in a pretty decent mood before Thanksgiving, and they’re looking happier Friday morning with futures bid higher. So let’s take a fresh look at our sentiment indicators to see how traders are feeling on today’s Black Friday “holiday.” (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Last Wednesday, the VIX hit a 3-month high at 14.51. It’s around 9.85 Friday morning.. That’s extremely low by historical standards, but it’s become the new normal… at least since the summer. This gives us a 3-month spread of about +3.95, which means traders are very bullish. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 54, up slightly from 50 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, so a reading of 54 is neutral. Before last Thursday’s big reversal higher, it was actually at 35. On October 6, it hit multi-year highs at 95, so it’s obviously come back down to earth. Funny — a lot of folks thought that 95 reading meant we were peaking. But markets kept pushing higher, showing how difficult it is to time tops and bottoms with sentiment indicators. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.5% of individual investors are bullish. This is up from last week’s 29.3% reading, but it’s still way off the 45.1% level from two weeks ago, which itself was the highest since since January 5, 2017. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 35.5% is basically neutral. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.57 on Thursday, which is well below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.629, which is below the long-term average. Both point to bullishness. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 2 bullish (up from 1 last week) 2 neutral (flat) 0 bearish (down from 1 last week) The permabears are still saying that everone’s all-in bullish and 100% complacent… but the numbers point to moderate bullishness. If you want to see full-on 100% bullish insanity, go back to October 6 when I declared the following: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. Of course, I hedged myself by adding that “the bulls may be insane… but they may also be right.” And they were right! The Russell 2000 shook off its cobwebs, tech picked up steam, and the bears got take to the woodshed. I suspect that with a few more days of upside, sentiment could go full on psycho bullish. And that’s not out of the question. Friday’s off to a great start already, and low trading volumes (due to the holiday) could exacerbate movement to the upside.
Continue Reading -->