All posts by Michael Comeau
10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets. And by “fun,” we mean miserable. Unless you were short. President Trump tossing a major “chaos bomb” into the market with his aggressive Tariff announcement on Thursday China firing back with a 34% tariff on US-made goods Vietnam and Thailand signaling they will play ball with Trump on Tariffs QQQ entering bear-market territory with a 20% decline off the highs Newsmax (NMAX) going public on Monday and becoming a meme stock on Tuesday Gold hitting record highs And MORE! So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Freakin’ Now! 1. QQQ Enters Bear Market Territory Mag7 stocks have been a total mess in 2025, officially becoming the “Lag7.” And QQQ officially entered bear market territory by falling 20% off the highs on midday Friday. It definitely ain’t 2023 or 2024 anymore! As of Friday at 1:04 pm ET, just one stock in QQQ had a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 60 – Exelon Corporation (EXC). The small caps are even messier, with IWM over 26% from its highs. Need insights on navigating times like this? Check out The 7 Unbreakable Rules of Bear Market Trading by David Prince of Inner Circle. 2. CPI Could Create Pandemonium, Consumer Sentiment Could Signal Misery Inflation has moderated in recent months, as you can see on the chart of the YoY Core CPI: Traders want more of this to give the Fed ample room to cut rates. Markets are pricing in: 4 rate cuts this year 35% probability of a 25 bps cut at the May 7 Fed meeting 100% probability of easing at the June meeting Traders are worried about stagflation – stagnating economic growth and high inflation. Because tariffs could hurt growth and increase inflation at the same time. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects tariffs to increase inflation and hurt growth. Hard economic data has been decent as of late. The March NFP and ADP employment numbers were solid, as was Q4 GDP. A hot CPI number on Thursday would be a disaster. On Friday, we get the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment number. Readings have been dropping like a rock all year. A continued drop may be a good thing for traders — since major collapses in Consumer Sentiment tend to correspond with stock market bottoms. 3. Earnings Season Kicks Off with the Banks We get the first taste of Q1 earnings season with JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reporting Friday. Expectations are low. FactSet tells us that 107 S&P 500 companies issued Q1 guidance, with 68 leaning negative. That’s 64%, above the 5-year average of 57%. And most of the weakness is in tech. But guidance is likely to get even worse thanks to all the tariff uncertainty. Because companies want to keep expectations as low as possible to set the stage for positive earnings surprises. The banks are key because they’ll give us insights into housing and the overall consumer picture – a good companion to the Michigan Sentiment report. 4. Gold Had a Monster “Sell the News” Gold hit record highs on Thursday on President Trump’s tariff announcement. But then it sold off. Hard. Traders have been asking whether gold’s surprising surge in 2025 was a sign of trouble to come. In hindsight, that looks right. If the tariff situation cools off, gold may flat-out collapse. 5. NVIDIA Could be a Value Stock If you loved NVIDIA (NVDA) at 70 times earnings… do you like it as 21 times earnings? NVIDIA was the leading megacap tech growth stock of 2023 and 2024. Could be the greatest value stock of 2025? Tough to say. Especially because traders want a big earnings report and strong guidance from this semiconductor leader. The problem is that NVIDIA won’t report earnings again until May. 6. Nike May Be the Tariff Bellwether Nike (NKE) was devastated on Thursday and Friday because the new Tariffs will hit the company’s supply chain, particularly in Vietnam. On Friday, Nike broke its pandemic low, and then rebounded hard when Vietnam signaled it would strike a tariff deal with the US. If more dip buyers come in hard, that could mean the market is looking past the near-term pain of the Tariff storm. Also see: Lululemon (LULU) and Deckers (DECK). 7. Sentiment Is Rock Bottom Negative 61.9% of investors are bearish for the next 6 months, according to AAII Sentiment. This is the 3rd highest bearish reading in history, behind: March 5, 2009: 70.3% at height of housing crisis October 19, 1990: 67.0% bc of Iraq’s Invasion of Kuwait, surging oil prices, and a US recession. These extreme readings happened right at market bottoms. But in fairness, in those cases, the markets were down much further off highs. And this 61.9% bearish number was calculated BEFORE the Trump Tariff news hit. 8. NewsMax Could Implode Newsmax (NMAX) has a high valuation and big losses. Not a great recipe for outperformance in this market. The stock opened at $14 when it IPO’d on Monday. And it hit $265 on Tuesday. On Wednesday at 1:15 pm ET, Adam Mesh announced he was shorting the stock. The stock was around $121 when this live stream started… and just an hour later it was at $67. And on Thursday it hit a low of $40. This is not a great environment for super-risky speculative names. So Newsmax should have a rough time going forward. 9. Bitcoin May Be Decoupling from US Equities Scott Redler pointed out this week that Bitcoin looks like it may be decoupling from SPY. We are being very selective with the starting point on this chart. Still – Bitcoin’s staying power has been remarkable during a sloppy era for risk assets. 10. You Should Learn from Paul Tudor Jones We’re hard at work expanding our Learning Center, and you should check out our latest piece. 10 Trading Tips from Paul Tudor Jones –
Continue Reading -->Stock Market Preview: 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets that included: Broad weakness in equities & cryptocurrencies Momentum in precious metals A bizarre array of tariff headlines A slightly hot PCE report A head-scratching IPO in CoreWeave (CRWV) So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week. 1. The April 2 Tariff Deadline Is About to Hit Like a Sledgehammer The Trump administration will hand down new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which the President called “Liberation Day.” Of course, we’ve been seeing conflicting headlines, and that should continue into Wednesday. Bulls are hoping for a last-minute compromise. And bears are hoping for… disaster? 2. Tesla Powered Up, But It’s Not Bulletproof Sami Abusaad made major headlines when he announced he bought 2,500 shares of Tesla (TSLA) at $235: He made his buy right after Minnesota Governor Tim Walz infamously laughed at Tesla stock declining. We checked in with Sami to get his current take on Tesla stock. He told us, “while there is potential upside to $342, I have a stop in around $250.” If Tesla drops to $250 and he exits, he’d still gain $37,500 from his $235 entry.” Not a bad worst-case scenario, right? He’s a bull – but as a top pro trader, he understands things can go against him. P.S Are You Joining Sami’s Mentorship? Just 1 Spot Is Left Reviews are in for Sami Abusaad and James Young’s Pristine Mentorship. 2 Spots Left in Sami Abusaad & James Young’s Pristine Mentorship Program Are you a new trader going all in? An experienced trader that wants to put it all together? There are just 32 spots left in Sami Abusaad’s Pristine Mentorship Program. Here’s a small taste of the feedback… pic.twitter.com/9OSNoQjk2B — T3 Live (@t3live) March 28, 2025 1 spot is left. If you are interested in joining, go here now. 3. CoreWeave May Put a Bottom in the Semis “AI Hyperscaler” CoreWeave (CRWV) went public on Friday. Back in July 2024 at the peak of Nvidia (NVDA)-led AI fever, there would have been unlimited demand for the CoreWeave deal. But CoreWeave had to lower its IPO price and size because of weak demand. David Prince of Inner Circle explained all the problems with the deal: But it’s worth asking: did the hatred for CoreWeave create a bottom in beaten-down semiconductor and AI stocks? We may find out Monday. 4. Gold and Silver Are Still Flying High JR Romero of our Momentum Express VTF® has been a huge gold and silver bull. So… he’s been right. GLD and SLV are destroying SPY this year: If you’re looking for momentum, it’s in the metals. 5. There Are Stress Fractures Out There Sentiment indicators imply traders and investors are feeling stressed headed into next week. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 22, indicating Extreme Fear. Meanwhile, the AAII sentiment survey showed a lift in bullishness this week. However, bullishness has been below average every week since January 29. Is there enough negativity headed into the April 2 Tariff Deadline? Maybe not. 6. How’s the Job Market? Consumer sentiment is on the decline as the word “stagflation” is starting to enter traders’ mouths. On Wednesday, we get the ADP Nonfarm Employment Report, followed by Nonfarm Payrolls Friday. While the “soft” data (like consumer sentiment) has been in the dumps, the “hard” data like jobs data remain steady. These two key March data points will help us figure out if there’s a change. 7. Is Ferrari Invincible? Ferrari (RACE) has been one of the all-time great sleeper growth stocks. It’s up 726% since its 2015 IPO, crushing SPY by more than 3X: On Thursday, the company said it would raise prices by up to 10% in the US because of the Trump auto tariffs. And the stock ripped on Friday. We’ve seen all sorts of consumer stocks like Lululemon (LULU) and Nike (NKE) get hit hard. Can the ultra-luxury Ferrari brand buck the trend? Keep it on the radar. Because its status-focused customers may look at a 10% price hike and say “who cares?” 8. China Needs to Step Up FXI rallied 35% from the January lows to the mid-March highs. But it’s out of gas: This chart is looking uglier and uglier. It’s time for buyers to step up. 9. Cannabis Can’t Get High If you think the semis and China names are in trouble… they’ve got nothing on the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) which is down 33% in 2025 after falling 46% last year. Here’s a lifetime chart of this troubled ETF – a crystal-clear example of why you should not get attached to a sector or stock: This will be the buy of a lifetime… someday. 10. Yes, You Can Learn From Paul Tudor Jones Step back into the 1980’s and learn how the legendary Paul Tudor Jones got it done back in the day. Amazing stuff. They don’t make ’em like this anymore.
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets that included: A “chaotic for most, fun for some” FOMC day Yet another Nike (NKE) earnings bomb A Friday “stick save” by the bulls Strength in energy and banks Weakness in semiconductors & crypto currencies So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week. Click the calendar for an events listing: 1. A Trump Tariff News Storm The Trump administration will hand down new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which the President called “Liberation Day.” Of course, we’re likely to see a storm of conflicting headlines over the next week. Do we get a fast compromise at the last minute? Or does everyone play hardball? There are almost too many scenarios to consider… 2. The Tim Walz Tesla Bottom? Sami Abusaad is bullish on Tesla (TSLA), having recently bought 2,500 shares of the stock. But Minnesota Governor and former VP candidate Tim Walz took the other side of the trade by cheering Tesla’s slide off the highs: If you need a little boost during the day, check out Tesla stock 📉 pic.twitter.com/KBEh6pOZLW — Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) March 19, 2025 Yes, that was a real video. Not AI. An American politician celebrated American investors losing money in an American company. In public. Tesla employs many thousands of Americans, with a significant employee base in Tim Walz’ state of Minnesota. Which begs the question — could this cheap publicity stunt mark a bottom? Because the stock’s rallied $20+ since then. Maybe we can start calling him “Tesla Tim.” What do you think? 3. PCE Price Index & GDP Report = Stagflation? The FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference dominated the news flow this past week. The Fed kept rates steady as expected, while lowering its GDP growth forecast and increasing its PCE Price Index inflation projection. And this coming week, we get the final Q4 GDP number (Thursday) and the February PCE Price Index Reports (Friday). The Fed doesn’t have the best forecasting track record in the world. So traders are eager to see if actual numbers are in-line with the Fed’s outlook. Remember, stagflation is a major concern right now as the US economy slows. We do not need numbers pointing in that direction. 4. KB Home (KBH) Earnings + Home Sales Data Will Tell Us About Housing Homebuilder KB Home (KBH) reports Monday and will give us more insights on the housing market. Lennar (LEN) took a hit on Friday after warning that high interest rates, stubborn inflation, and a limited home supply are hurting the housing market. We’ll also see New Home Sales data on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales on Thursday. On a related note, our own David Prince of Inner Circle is predicting major turmoil in housing. 5. The Consumer Confidence Question May Be Answered On Tuesday, we get CB Consumer Confidence for March. With volatile stock markets, the April 2 tariff deadline approaching, and a lot of questions over the direction of inflation — how will consumers react? Nike’s (NKE) guidance didn’t exactly inspire… but it’s been quite a while since that company had anything good to say. Interestingly, Lululemon (LULU) reports Thursday and might be a decent gauge of consumer spending on the high end. 6. A Crypto Bull Could Run the SEC On Thursday, SEC Chair Nominee Paul Atkins will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Atkins is a big advocate for digital assets like Bitcoin — a big initiative for President Trump. Bitcoin is way off the post-election highs: If the Senate Banking Committee advances Atkins, the door opens for a vote to confirm his nomination. The big question is — can Bitcoin actually hold up on that good news? 7. There Is Brute Force Strength in The Metals The most under covered story in financial markets this year has been the rise in commodities – especially the metals. While the SPY is down 4% YTD, commodities have been skyrocketing, as you can see in the chart: Natural gas, gold, silver, copper, and plenty of other commodities have been ripping this year. The metals in particular are suddenly getting attention now that Gold passed the $3,000 mark — something JR Romero predicted early last year. Are the metals being stockpiled in advance of global financial chaos? That’s a big, big question. 8. Traders Might Get Less Miserable Based on sentiment indicators like the AAII Sentiment Survey and CNN Fear & Greed Index, traders are in a pretty rotten mood: The AAII data has been shockingly bearish for 4 straight weeks. Could traders be too pessimistic into the April 2 Tariff deadlines? That’s another big consideration. The VIX Curve was even recently inverted, though that’s resolved itself as equity markets stabilized. 9. Growth Stocks Could Lift the Mood Growth names have been under fire. The average QQQ stock is 22% off its 52-week high. The two flagships – Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR) – reversed hard off their morning lows Friday. If they continue higher, that could be a big mood enhancer for beaten-down bulls. Robinhood (HOOD), AppLovin (APP), and Reddit (RDDT) are others to watch here. 10. China Needs to Step Up Chinese stocks like Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) were hot… until they weren’t. Did that hot trade get overcrowded? FXI has pulled back less than 10% so far. Let’s see if dip buyers step up.
Continue Reading -->Are the Fearless Bulls Slipping? What’s on Tap June 26-30, 2023
First, sign up for this week’s special events! How to Trade the Open With Sami Abusaad Chat With a Pro Trader With Andrew Moss Now use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Slippin’The June SurgeBulls Still Have No FearThe Calendar Picks UpSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Slowing?Industry Insights from Rob Koyfman, CEO of Koyfin This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week in Review: Slippin’After 5 weeks up, the market finally took a breather with the 4 horsemen ETFs all slipping. Fed Chair Powell came out hawkish again on Wednesday, saying inflation is “well above” where it needs to be. He also said “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.” Tech and housing stocks have raged higher this year, implying that traders have been gearing up for an eventual easing. Looks like that may be further off in the distance. The June SurgeNow let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:However, some traders are concerned about slippage in IWM, which might be back in laggard status after an early-June surge. That could mean the rally narrowing once again, forcing the market to rely on tech to carry the weight.Bulls Still Have No FearThe VIX is once again making new multiyear lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:Some traders believe the VIX could be set to bounce, but check out the blue bubble on the chart above. Many traders and investors got burned getting long volatility back then as the market just floated higher. By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here. Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment for the third week in a row:42.9% of investors are bullish, down slightly last week’s 45.2% reading. The last time sentiment was this bullish was November 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months later. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:Make no mistake: traders are bullish.The Calendar Picks UpWe’re coming off a pretty light week data-wise but things get busy next week:Monday 6/26: Dallas Fed Mfg Business IndexTuesday 6/27: Durable Goods, Redbook, House Price Index, S&P/GS HPI Composite, New Home Sales, Wednesday 6/28: Retail Inventories, Wholesale Inventories, Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Fed Bank Stress Test ResultsThursday 6/29: Jobless Claims, GDP, Pending Home SalesFriday 6/30: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, Chicago PMI, Consumer SentimentThe bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, so maybe they’ll get some evidence with the Durable Goods and GDP reports.And of course, traders will key on Powell on Wednesday and the Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation guage) on Friday. Some Earnings BiggiesEarnings season has slowed down but we do have some notable reports this weekKeep an eye on these reports:Monday: Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) – cruise and travel stocks have raged higher and CCL is one of the best stocks of the year. Will the fundamentals confirm the move? Tuesday: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) – should give us insights on the consumer.Wednesday: Micron (MU) – semis have been on fire this year so we’ll see if Micron predicts good things to come.Thursday: Nike (NKE) – will tell us about consumer strength. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Slowing?Semiconductors are still leading by a country mile this year with a 46.1% gain:However, semis had a rough week. We’ll see if Micron’s earnings report reignites the group.Industry Insights from Rob Koyfman, CEO of KoyfinThis week, we hosted a Twitter Space with Rob Koyfman, CEO of Koyfin. We talk about what traders look for in a software platform, and the role of AI in market data analysis.Set your reminder for today’s Twitter Space with @koyfman of the amazing @KoyfinCharts service.https://t.co/NNXoCfHR5R— T3 Live (@t3live) June 20, 2023
Continue Reading -->The Mighty Mighty Tech Bulls: What’s on Tap June 19-23, 2023
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before you start, take a special sneak peak at this week’s special offer from Scott Redler. SHHH! Don’t tell anyone! Click Here to Access the Deal Use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Tech Booms AgainThe June SurgeBulls Have No FearA Light CalendarSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis on FireTrading Insights from Marty Zweig This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlargeQuick reminder: US markets are closed Monday, June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday. Week in Review: Tech Booms AgainFOMC Chair Jerome Powell’s “hawkish pause” did not deter the bulls, while the light CPI gave traders hope that inflation really is under control. Plus, the University of Michigan sentiment survey showed that US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations are at a two-year low. So while Powell is technically hawkish, it feels like the market is pricing in a rate-easing scenario far in the future. After all, tech and housing are booming. As such, from a price action perspective, the big story this week was the resurgence in tech with the QQQ’s up 3.8% and IWM falling behind after its recent surge. Having the 4 horsemen all in green territory despite feeling overbought is mighty impressive. From a sector perspective, we saw major strength in natural gas, airlines/travel, transports, and semiconductors. Some of this week’s leaders include: Carnival Cruise (CCL): +21%Intel (INTC): +16%Estee Lauder (EL): +16%Oracle (ORCL): +14%Catelent (CTLT): +14% Plus, tech superstars Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) hit all-time highs. The June SurgeNow let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:IWM and RSP (equal weight SPX ETF) are outperforming SPY, so the rally is broadening out a bit.Bulls Have No FearThe VIX is still at multi-year lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here. Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed a bullish sentiment for the second week in a row:45.2% of investors are bullish, in-line with last week’s 45.2% reading. This is the highest reading since November 11, 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months after that. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:Traders are still very bullish.A Light CalendarWe’re coming off a busy week with the FOMC Rate Decision and CPI, but we have a few key reports on tap:Tuesday: Building PermitsThursday: Jobless Claims, Existing Homes SalesFriday: Services PMIThe bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, but none of these reports are in the “make or break category.” Some Earnings BiggiesEarnings season has slowed down quite a bit but we saw three blockbusters last week with Oracle (ORCL), Lennar (LEN), and Adobe (ADBE).Keep an eye on these reports:Tuesday: Fedex (FDX) for insights on consumer spending and ecommerce demand Wednesday: KB Homes (KBH) – homebuilding stocks are up huge in 2023 and we’ll see if KB follow’s Lennar’s leadThursday: Darden Restaurants (DRI) – will tell us about consumer strengthFriday: CarMax (KMX) – used car stocks have been flying so we’ll see if the fundamentals are catching up with prices. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis on FireSemiconductors are still on fire with a 51.2% gain for SMH.Outside of tech, housing stocks are still booming and airlines are sneaking up on everyone too.Trading Insights from Marty ZweigDavid Prince of T3’s Inner Circle shared this on Twitter:pic.twitter.com/lvWYWm5puJ— The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince (@epictrades1) June 16, 2023 P.S. Don’t forget to take a peak at Scott Redler’s special offer. Click Here to Access the Deal
Continue Reading -->Fearless Bulls vs. the Fed: What’s on Tap June 12-16, 2023
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before we get started, we invite you to join this week’s upcoming events:The Newsbeat Open House with JR Romero!Our Twitter Spaces with MightySoldiersScott Redler: Chat With a Pro TraderUse the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: The Small Caps Come BackThe June SurgeFear Does Not Exist in This Market, Does It?The Fed Is Dead AheadSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Still RULEFactoid of the Week: The Mighty Carvana Short SqueezeTrading Advice from Robert Deniro This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week in Review: The Small Caps Come Back(data as of 2:03 p.m. Friday) The big story this week was the surge in the Russell 2000, which jumped 1.7% to outperform the other major index ETFs. The bears have argued that the rally has been too tech-heavy, so it’s good to see other small caps get in the game. We also saw RSP, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, outperform SPY, which is heavily influenced by a few large-cap tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL). You can see that in this chart:The S&P 500’s rally also pushed it 20% over the October 2022 low, so we are in a bull market — if you believe in that textbook definition. The June Surge Now let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up: The 2023 rally is broadening out with energy, financials, airlines, and small caps catching up to the soaring tech stock. Meanwhile… complacency may be setting in.Fear Does Not Exist in This Market, Does It? The VIX is back at February 2020 levels, showing that traders expect almost no volatility: Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed a surge in bullish sentiment: 44.5% of investors are bullish, a big jump from last week’s 29.1% reading. This is the highest reading since November 11, 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months after that. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index reads Extreme Greed: Add it up and it’s obvious that traders are bullish. I’m not saying this is right or wrong – I’m just showing you the data.The Fed Is Dead AheadIt’s a big week for US economics:Tuesday: Consumer Price IndexWednesday: FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference, PPIThursday: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, NY Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial ProductionFriday: Michigan SentimentAll eyes are on the CPI Tuesday and the Fed Wednesday.We all want to see if the Fed’s really going to just hike 25 bps and pause.Of course, if Powell shakes things up, the bulls may run into a brick wall.Because based on the action in tech and housing stocks, it seems like the market’s pricing in Some Earnings BiggiesThe earnings calendar is almost empty but there are 4 important reports hitting:Monday: Oracle (ORCL) – will give us insights into enterprise tech spending (and possibly AI trends).Wednesday: Lennar (LEN) – homebuilding stocks are up huge in 2023 despite a lousy housing market so we’ll get more insights.Thursday: Kroger (KR) – will tell us about food inflation.Friday: Adobe (ADBE) – has been releasing amazing AI tech and we’ll see if people are buying The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Still RULEEven though small caps played some catch-up this week, big-cap tech is still on stop with semiconductors up nearly 45% YTD:And who would have thought housing (ITB) would be up 30% in a bear market. Factoid of the Week: The Mighty Carvana Short SqueezeWe’re awarding Carvana (CNVA) the “Short Squeeze of the Year” Award. It has 45% short interest… and it’s up 306% year-to-date at $19.26. Only 3 of 27 analysts rate it a buy. And the average target price is just $13.There’s a parallel here with housing stocks. Everyone knew housing was slowing the same way everyone knew the weak used car market would hurt Carvana. Turns out, when everyone knows something, it can be time to buy. Easier said than done… but keep that thought in your head.Trading Advice from Robert DeniroRobert DeNiro on your attachment to stocks pic.twitter.com/8G1jUmlqXP— T3 Live (@t3live) June 8, 2023 P.S. Don’t forget to join this week’s upcoming events!The Newsbeat Open House with JR Romero!Our Twitter Spaces with MightySoldiersScott Redler: Chat With a Pro TraderUse the Table of Contents to jump around:
Continue Reading -->Will GameStop Say AI? What’s on Tap June 5-9, 2023
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before we get started, sign up for the Newsbeat Open House with JR Romero! Use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Tech Never Dies?A Big Slowdown…Will GameStop (GME) Say AI?Earnings Season CheckupTraders Are in a “Meh” Mood Despite Market StrengthThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis RULE!Factoid of the Week: Retail WinnersSami Lost $65,000 Before He Hit It Big! This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week in Review: Tech Never Dies?Just when we thought tech couldn’t get any stronger… the QQQ’s jumped another 1.9% this week, aided by surges in names like Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), Paypal (PYPL), and Netflix (NFLX).(data as of 3:15 p.m. Friday) Year-to-date, the QQQ’s are up a ridiculous 33.3%. However, traders are starting to ask whether the other major index ETFs SPY, IWM, and DIA are about to play catch-up. All three outperformed QQQ for the week as small caps, banks, and energy played catch-up. However, judging by the action in individual stocks, shorts had better be careful betting against tech… especially when there’s the potential for the magic two letters to come out. And yes, those magic letters are “AI.” MongoDB (MDB) surged 28% on Friday after a blockbuster earnings report and a bullish outlook driven by the almighty AI. A Big Slowdown…The US economic data calendar slows down this week with:Monday: S&P Global PMI Services PMI, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment & PMITuesday: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, API Crude Oil StockWednesday: Trade BalanceThursday: Jobless ClaimsFriday: Baker Hughes Rig CountThere’s not a lot to get excited about here so we won’t waste your time with unnecessary commentary. And overseas, we see:Monday: CHF CPI, ES/ITA/FRA/DE PMI, EU Services PMI, JPY Household Spending, GBP Retail SalesTuesday: AUD Rate Decision & GDP, DE Factory Orders, GBP Construction PMI, CAD Building Permits & Ivey PMI, CNY Trade BalanceWednesday: CHF Unemployment, DE Industrial Production, BR CPI, CAD Rate Decision, JPY GDP, AUD Trade BalanceThursday: IN Rate Decision, EU GDP, NZD PMI, CNY CPI & PPIFriday: RUB Rate Decision & CPI, CAD Employment, Will GameStop (GME) Say AI?Last week was action-packed with MongoDB (MDB), Zscaler (ZS), Broadcom (BRCM), Lululemon (LULU), and C3.ai (AI) but this week’s calendar is light.Still, we’ll be watching:Tuesday: The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM), Ciena Corporation (CIEN)Wednesday: Brown-Forman Corporation (BFB), Campbell Soup Company (CPB), GameStop Corp. (GME)Thursday: The Toro Company (TTC), Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG), DocuSign Inc. (DOCU), Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)Friday: Nio (NIO)The big question we’re going to ask is… will GameStop (GME) say “AI” on its earnings call? Because with the stock up 32% in the past month and short interest sky-high at 18%, management may try to juice the stock with the magic word. Earnings Season CheckupAccording to Factset, 99% of the S&P 500 have reported and:78% of companies beat EPS estimates75% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.1% vs. expectations for a -6.7% declineFactset also tells us that 10 of 11 sectors have reported better-than-expected earnings, with utilities being the outlier. Traders Are in a “Meh” Mood Despite Market StrengthInvestors and traders remain bearish despite the market’s strength this year. According to AAII, just 29.1% of investors are bullish. That’s up from last week’s 27.4% reading but under the long-term average of 37.5%. 36.8% of investors are bearish, and AAII said “Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 75th time out of the past 80 weeks.” This negativity may be fueling the market’s rise. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis RULE!Semiconductors are still rocking hard thanks to blockbuster moves in names like Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Marvell (MRVL).This table shows you just how important sectors have been in 2023. It was hard to predict at the end of 2022, but the more risk you took, the more you got paid this year. Meanwhile, energy is way behind after huge returns in 2021 and 2022. Factoid of the Week: Retail WinnersAmazon (AMZN) and Costco (COST) are the first and third-best retail stocks of 2023:What do they have in common? No shoplifting. We can’t say the same about Lululemon (LULU), though they still squeezed out a huge earnings win. Sami Lost $65,000 Before He Hit It Big!Get to know Sami Abusaad of T3’s Strategic Day Trader VTF®:
Continue Reading -->Is There Life After Nvidia? What’s on Tap May 30 – June 2
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before we get started, check out:Coming Wednedsay: Inner Circle’s David Prince on Conversations With a Pro TraderSave 40% with T3’s Memorial Day SaleUse the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek Review: Nvidia Dominates!Jobs Data Is on the WayEarnings: Life After Nvidia?AI: The Earnings Season CrazeTraders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market’s ResilienceThe Best Stocks & ETFs of 2023Factoid of the Week: Nvidia Is CHEAP?Get to Know Kira Turner This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week Review: Nvidia Dominates!You guessed it! This week was all about Nvidia’s (NVDA) shocking earnings beat and guidance, which sent tech and especially semiconductors screaming higher. The QQQ’s rose 3.4% for the week:(data as of 2:23 p.m. Friday) Year-to-date, the QQQ’s are up a ridiculous 30.7% thanks to the brutal strength in large-cap tech stocks. 17 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 (the index upon which QQQ is based on) are up more than 40% year-to-date. And year-to-date Nvidia is the #1 stock in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the SMH ETF. (more on this below In economic news, the big story was Friday’s Core PCE Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The number came in hot, which had some folks worrying about early Friday morning. The worries didn’t last with stocks powering higher into the close. Now let’s look forward to next week. Jobs Data Is on the WayWe have some important US economic data reports on tap including:Tuesday: S&P/CS Home Prices, CB Consumer ConfidenceWednesday: Chicago PMI, FOMC’s Harker Speaks, Beige Book, API Crude StocksThursday: ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC’s Harker SpeaksFriday: Nonfarm payrolls, Baker Hughes Rig CountThe biggie this week is the nonfarm payrolls report. Despite lots of headlines about layoffs, the labor market has remained strong in recent months.As of Friday afternoon, traders are pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25bps June rate hike, up from just 17.4% one week ago. And overseas, we get:Monday: BRL Focus Market Readout, NZD Building Consents, JPY Job/Applications ratio, AUD Building ApprovalsTuesday: CHF GDP, ES CPI, JPY Industrial Prod. & Retail Sales, AUD CPI, CNY PMIWednesday: CHF Retail Sales, FRA CPI & GDP, DE Unemployment & CPI, BRL Unemployment, CAD GPI, AUD Retail Sales, CNY Caixin PMIThursday: DE Retail Sales, ES/ITA/DE/FRA PMI, EU CPI, EU Unemployment, KRW CPIFriday: ES Unemployment, BRL Inflation(don’t forget the market is closed on Monday May 29 for Memorial Day) Earnings: Life After Nvidia?Nvidia (NVDA) was the start of earnings season, but pay attention because we’ve got some big ones this week, like:Tuesday: HP Inc. (HPQ) U-Haul (UHAL), Ambarella (AMBA)Wednesday: Salesforce.com (CRM), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Chewy (CHWY), Kroger (KR), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), C3.ai (AI)Thursday: Dollar General (DG), Macy’s (M), Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon (LULU), MongoDB (MDB), Zscaler (ZS)This looks like a random grab-bag, but we could see some fireworks. Cloud security play Zscaler (ZS) is the second-best performing Nasdaq 100 stock in May — performing even better than Nvidia. Broadcom (BRCM) will be watch just because semiconductor stocks have been on fire — and not just Nvidia. Marvel (MRVL) was up nearly 30% on Friday after earnings, and 7 of the 25 stocks in the SMH ETF are up more than 20% In May. Salesforce.com (CRM) and MongoDB (MDB) will give us insights on enterprise tech trends, while the retailers like Kroger (KR) and Macy’s (M) should give us more consumer insights. But the star of the week might be C3.ai (AI) on Wednesday, which has been rallying hard on the AI craze. Can they pull an Nvidia? We’re about to find out. AI: The Earnings Season CrazeAccording to Factset, 110 companies in the S&P 500 used the term “AI” during their Q1 earnings calls. That’s up from 78 last quarter. And as far as earnings season goes, things have been better than expected (though not great). 97% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and:78% of companies beat EPS estimates76% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.1% vs. expectations for a -6.7% decline Traders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market’s ResilienceInvestors and traders remain bearish despite the market’s strength this year. According to AAII, just 27.4% of investors are bullish. That’s up from last week’s 22.9% reading but well below the long-term average of 37.5%. 39.7% of investors are bearish, and AAII said “Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 74th time out of the past 79 weeks.” The Best Stocks & ETFs of 2023For fun, let’s look at the top 20 stocks of 2023:As we discussed, Nvidia (NVDA) is on top by a country mile. Even #2 Meta’s (META) 118% gain is way behind.Now let’s move onto ETFs:Thanks to Nvidia (NVDA), Marvel (MRVL), and other semi names, the SMH ETF is now up a whopping 45% year-to-date The broader XLK and QQQ ETFs are up big but well-behind. And while the ARKK ETF is up big this year with a 25.7% gain, fund head Cathie Wood came under fire for dumping Nvidia (NVDA) right before this year’s historic 160% run. Factoid of the Week: Nvidia Is CHEAP?Want to know how big Nvidia’s guidance was? So big that the consensus FY2024 revenue forecast rose by 41% in two days. And analyst raised their earnings estimates by 70%.These increases are so big that based on forward earnings estimates, Nvidia is the cheapest it’s been since January. (we’re not making a stock recommendation here…) Get to Know Kira TurnerLearn more about Kira Turner of T3 Live’s Inner Circle.
Continue Reading -->Welcome to Nvidia Week! What’s on Tap May 22-26
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before we get started, check out:Coming Soon: Derrick Oldensmith on Conversations With a Pro TraderSave 40% with T3’s Memorial Day Sale T3’s Inner Circle Community – where you want to be if you trade NvidiaUse the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents Nvidia Week! This Week’s Trading CalendarTech Is on the Warpath!US Economic DataNvidia Earnings Time!Earning Season… Not Good But Not a Disaster EitherTraders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market’s ResilienceTech Leads the Way, All the WayFactoid of the Week: Carvana Is a MonsterGet to Know Scott Redler Nvidia Week! This Week’s Trading CalendarYes, we know you’re pumped for Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report Wednesday, but click the calendar image to see what else is on tap:Click to enlarge Tech Is on the Warpath!What a week! We just saw:Retailers like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Foot Locker (FL) warning about the outlook for consumer spendingA huge tech stock rally led by momentum names like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD)Elon Musk scoring major wins on Tesla’s (TSLA) Investor Day and his interview with CNBC’s David FaberHere’s a look at the four horseman ETFs:(data as of 3 p.m. Friday) Year-to-date, the QQQ’s are still crushing the other big ETFs thanks to giant rallies in names like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL).Now let’s look forward to next week. US Economic DataWe have some important US economic data reports on tap including:Tuesday: New Home Sales, Manufacturing & Services PMI’sWednesday: FOMC Meeting MinutesThursday: GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Home SalesFriday: Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE Price IndexThe biggie this week is that Core PCE Price Index because the Fed watches it closely as an inflation barometer.As of Friday afternoon, traders were pricing in a 17.4% probability of a June rate hike, up from 10.7% two weeks ago thanks to recent economic reports showing some inflationary pressure. And overseas, we get:Monday: Japan Services PMI, Brazil Focus Market ReadoutTuesday: France/Germany/England PMI’s, New Zealand Rate DecisionWednesday: England CPI & PPI, ECB Policy Meeting, South Africa CPI, Germany Business ExpectationsThursday: Germany GDP, South Africa Rate Decision, Japan CPI, Australia Retail SalesFriday: England Retail Sales, Switzerland Employment Nvidia Earnings Time!Earnings season is coming to a close, but we have some important reports next week, topped by chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).Monday: Zoom (ZM), Nordstrom (JWN)Tuesday: Intuit (INTU), Lowe’s (LOW), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)Wednesday: Nvidia (NVDA), Analog Devices (ADI), Snowflake (SNOW)Thursday: Costco (COST), Medtronic (MDT), Netease (NTES), Workday (WDAY), AutodeskFriday: VMWare (VMW), Buckle (BKE)Yes, we’ll hear a lot about the consumer from Costco (COST) and Lowe’s (LWO), but we all want to know about Nvidia. Here’s a few fun facts of which you may not be aware:Semiconductors is the #1 sector of 2023 with a 31%+ gain for the SMH ETFNvidia is the #1 performer in the SMH ETF this year with a 114% gainNvidia is the #1 performer in the S&P 500 IndexNvidia is the #1 performer in the Nasdaq 100 IndexSo everyone wants to see if this mega stock can keep the momentum up. As far as we’re concerned, THIS is the event of earnings season. Sorry Apple… By the way, if you want to trade Nvidia before or after the report, check out the Inner Circle VTF® – our team is very active with Nvidia and its rival AMD (AMD). Earning Season… Not Good But Not a Disaster EitherAs we noted last week, earnings season is pretty strong relative to expectations. According to FactSet, 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and so far:78% of companies beat EPS estimates76% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.2% vs. expectations for a -6.7% declineSo earnings are lousy but better-than-expected. Which is why the market’s been up this year. Traders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market’s ResilienceInvestors and traders remain remarkably bearish despite the market’s stability. According to AAII, just 22.9% of investors are bullish. AAII says “Optimism reverted to an unusually low level and is at a seven-week low. Bullish sentiment is unusually low for the 51st time out of the past 72 weeks.” So even with tech stocks blasting higher and a better-than-expected earnings season, traders are still in a bad mood. The debt ceiling standoff, concerns over the Fed, and the regional banking mess are still weighing on traders’ and investors’ minds. Tech Leads the Way, All the WayIt’s the same old story. Tech is crushing everything in 2023, and housing stocks are posting big gains, looking past what looks like the most obvious slowdown in history. Meanwhile, energy and financials are drags. Factoid of the Week: Carvana Is a MonsterLooking for the short squeeze of the year? Look no further than Carvana (CVNA) — supposed victim of the soft used car market: Carvana has the highest short interest of any stock with a $500 million+ market cap… and it’s up 144.5% this year. Other big short squeeze: C3.ai (AI), and Bitcoin plays Mara (MARA), and Microstrategy (MSTR). Get to Know Scott RedlerLearn more about our Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler:
Continue Reading -->What’s On Tap for Traders: May 15-19
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarThe Week in Review…A Busier Stream of Econ DataRetail Earnings TimeSo How Has Earnings Season Been?Traders Are Still in a Bad MoodA Look at Sector Performance in 2023:Factoid of the Week: The Best Traders on Earth are in the US CongressGet to Know JR Romero This Week’s Trading CalendarClick the calendar image to enlarge it, then scroll down to see what’s coming down the pipe the week of May 15: The Week in Review…What a week! We survived:Earnings whiffs from Disney (DIS), PayPal (PYPL), AirBnB (ABNB), Wynn (WYNN)US CPI & PPI reportsA giant pop & drop in Tesla (TSLA) FridayThe major indices were mostly down this week, but the QQQ’s managed to squeeze into the green.(data as of 2 p.m. Friday) And year-to-date, the QQQ’s are still crushing the other big ETFs thanks to huge moves in big tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT). Even with Friday’s ugly outside day, it’s been pretty smooth sailing this year:Now let’s look forward to next week. A Busier Stream of Econ DataThe US economic calendar picks up next week with:Monday: NY Empire State ManufacturingTuesday: Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Retail Inventories, Fed’s Williams speaksWednesday: Building Permits, Housing StartsThursday: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Existing Home SalesThe big discussion on the Street is whether the Fed can slow the economy without breaking it.So everyone will be watching these reports for a better idea of where the US economy stands.After this week’s light CPI and PPI reports, traders are pricing in a slightly higher probability of a Fed Rate hike at the June 14 meeting.As of Friday afternoon, traders were pricing in a 16.6% probability of a June rate hike, up from 10.7% last week. That’s thanks to this week’s light CPI and PPI reports, which showed continued moderation in inflationary pressures.Only a moron would argue that inflation is low.But it is less awful.And overseas, we get:Monday: Switzerland PPI, Canadian Housing Starts & Whole Sale Sales, China Industrial Production & UnemploymentTuesday: Great Britain Employment, EU GDP, Italy CPI, Canada CPI, Japan GDPWednesday: EU CPI, Japan Industrial Production, New Zealand PPI, Australia EmploymentThursday: Canada Housing Prices, Japan CPIFriday: Germany PPI, Canada Retail sales Retail Earnings TimeEarnings season is pretty much done, but we’ve got some big retail reports on tap:Tuesday: Home Depot (HD)Wednesday: Target (TGT), TJ Maxx (TJX)Thursday: Walmart (WMT), Ross Stores (ROST)Friday: Foot Locker (FL)This earnings season has been all over the place for consumer stocks. We’ve seen some huge hits (like Apple) and some big misses (like Disney) Nonetheless, Walmart and Target should give us fresh insights on the consumer. Outside of retail, we have Baidu (BIDU) on Tuesday, Cisco on Wednesday (CSCO), and Applied Materials (AMAT) on Thursday. So How Has Earnings Season Been?As we noted last week, earnings season is pretty strong relative to expectations. According to FactSet, 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and so far:78% of companies beat EPS estimates75% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.5% vs. expectations for a -6.7% declineSo earnings stink, but they’re not as bad as expected. Which is why the market’s been up this year. Traders Are Still in a Bad MoodInvestors and traders remain remarkably bearish despite the market’s stability. According to AAII, just 29.4% of investors are bullish. That’s up from 24.1% the past two weeks, but well below the 37.5% long-term average. AAII said “pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 12th consecutive week.” A Look at Sector Performance in 2023:Click to enlargeIt’s the same old story. Housing (ITB) is winning which it’s not supposed to do in a rising rate environment, which could be related to traders pricing in rate cuts later this year. And tech is pretty strong with XLK, SMH, and ARKK all up 20% YTD. Meanwhile, Natural Gas (UNG), Banks (XLF, KRE), Energy (XLE, OIH), and Cannabis (MSOS) have lagged, big time. Factoid of the Week: The Best Traders on Earth are in the US CongressAccording to Unusual Whales, Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville is quite the active options trader:BREAKING: Senator Tommy Tuberville has just sold millions in stock and options.He sold puts on $TXN, $KR, $HPQ, $PARA, $AMT, and sold 50k in puts on $TSLA, $CSCO and $MSFTAnd much more.He appears to using options while in Congress.Wild.— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 12, 2023 Interestingly, two opposing members of Congress — Matt Gaetz and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — are teaming up to ban members of Congress from trading or owning stocks. Because Paul Tudor Jones or Richard Dennis have nothing on this crew:BREAKINGI have just released the full trading report on politicians in 2022.Despite 2022 being the worst market since 2008, both Democrats & Republicans beat the market.Many politicians individually beat the market.And many made unusual trades resulting in huge gains. pic.twitter.com/qDWIJB2spk— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 3, 2023 Get to Know JR RomeroHow did JR Romero go from code to pro trader & VTF® moderator.
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